MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 15th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Toronto at Baltimore
| Toronto | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Marcus Stroman | Vegas Moneyline | Wei-Yin Chen | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-122) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.225 | 0.637 | 0.284 | 20.30% | SP vs. Left | 0.281 | 0.706 | 0.312 | 16.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.263 | 0.621 | 0.277 | 21.20% | SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.746 | 0.325 | 18.10% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP  | TOR vs L | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Marcus Stroman – What’s up Grinders, we have two weeks left in the regular season. With the NFL under way and many Grinders tired of the long grind that is the MLB regular season, there is plenty of money to be won right now. Stroman will be on the mound tonight for the Blue Jays. He is coming off of a complete game shutout against the Cubs in which he struck out 8 batters. On the season he owns a 3.61 ERA (3.19 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.6. He is producing an effective 55% ground ball rate which has helped him hold opponents to 0.47 HR’s per 9 innings. He has yet to face the Orioles who are ranked 6th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. He’s a nice tournament play, but the tough matchup makes him a risky cash game option. Rating = 5
Salaries: $8500 FD, $12900 DD, $7400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Wei-Yin Chen – Chen has pitched well in his last two outings. He has only given up a single run over 13 innings of work while striking out 7 batters. He’s actually pitched much better than given credit for this season. He is sporting a 3.59 ERA (3.76 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.6. The problem with Chen is that his price has come up to an almost unplayable level. The matchup doesn’t bode well either as Chen has given up 1.23 HR’s per 9 innings this season. He’s facing a very potent Blue Jays offense. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7400 FD, $14200 DD, $8600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Jose Bautista – Bautista has only faced Chen 3 times in his career, but he does have 2 hits off of him, including a HR. Bautista has mashed LH pitching all season long with a .336 batting average and a .857 wOBA. He draws a favorable matchup against Chen in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards.
Additional Plays: Edwin Encarnacion, Danny Valencia
Baltimore
Nelson Cruz – Stroman has managed to keep both LH and RH hitters in check this season, but is in a tough spot tonight against the Orioles. Cruz is the top play here as he has been swinging a hot bat. He has 13 hits (7 XBH’s) and 9 RBI’s over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Nick Markakis
Washington at Atlanta
| Washington | Atlanta | ||||||||
| Stephen Strasburg | Vegas Moneyline | Ervin Santana | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-118) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.667 | 0.293 | 24.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.285 | 0.774 | 0.336 | 18.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.716 | 0.315 | 31.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.656 | 0.295 | 25.90% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Stephen Strasburg – Once again, we have a daily fantasy baseball dilemma. Do we trust Strasburg on the road? At home, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. On the road, he has a 4.45 ERA while giving up a .334 wOBA to opponents. That said, he does still have an elite strikeout rate (10.3 per 9 innings) and a great matchup against the Braves who are ranked 28th in wOBA against RH pitching. I’m going against the grain here and recommending Strasburg as a top pitching option tonight. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $9700 FD, $20600 DD, $11400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Ervin Santana – Santana is looking to bounce back after two shaky starts in a row. He gave up 4 earned runs to the Phillies and then gave up 5 earned runs to the Nationals in his next start. Tonight he gets a chance at redemption as he faces this same Nationals ball club. Santana owns an impressive K/9 of 8.2 and he has pitched well at home this season with a 3.54 ERA. I’m just not sold on the matchup. The Nationals lineup is tough 1-8 and he’ll likely see little to no run support with Strasburg on the mound. Santana is a tournament play at best tonight. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8600 FD, $17550 DD, $9300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Washington / Atlanta
This game has the lowest total on the board tonight. Stephen Strasburg and Ervin Santana are two of the top pitchers in the National League. Avoid both offenses in this one and target teams with better matchups.
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
| NY Yankees | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Chris Capuano | Vegas Moneyline | Alex Colome | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | TBR (-120) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | ??? | SP vs. Left | 0.229 | 0.670 | 0.296 | 29.10% | |||
| SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.708 | 0.310 | 23.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.702 | 0.314 | 20.00% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Chris Capuano – The numbers are starting to catch up to Capuano. After a solid start to the season, he has now given up at least 3 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts (one of which was to the Rays). His ERA has risen to 4.90 on the season and his strikeouts have taken a big hit over his last few starts. Even though he draws a favorable matchup against the Rays, he’s an easy pitcher to avoid tonight as he is coming into tonight’s start with terrible form. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5200 FD, $12550 DD, $5900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Alex Colome – Colome will be making his 2nd start of the season for the Rays. He was suspended for 50 games earlier in the season, but came back and pitched pretty well in the minors with a 3.77 ERA and a K/9 of 7.6. Colome is actually a small favorite tonight in a game that features a low run total. He seems a bit too risky to use in cash games, but he makes an interesting tournament play with his cheap price tag. He should see enough run support to put him in line for the win. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Jacoby Ellsbury – After looking at Colome’s minor-league splits this season, one thing is clear: he gives up a much higher wOBA to LH hitters than he does to RH hitters. Ellsbury only has 6 hits over his last 10 games, but draws a nice matchup against Colome and sees a boost in his SB potential with a righty on the mound.
Additional Plays: Brian McCann
Tampa Bay
Wil Myers – Myers is having a disappointing sophomore campaign, but is having his best month of the season. He’s batting .280 in September and he went 3/3 against Capuano in their last meeting. Myers is extremely cheap on both FD and DK and is not a bad value play against the Yankees’ lefty.
Additional Plays: Evan Longoria, Yunel Escobar
Miami at NY Mets
| Miami | NY Mets | ||||||||
| Jarred Cosart | Vegas Moneyline | Jacob Degrom | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYM (-141) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.701 | 0.318 | 15.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.230 | 0.653 | 0.294 | 22.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.612 | 0.273 | 15.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.596 | 0.265 | 24.70% |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jarred Cosart – Cosart continued his string of impressive starts by holding the Brewers to a single earned run in Milwaukee in his last outing. Over his last 6 starts, he has only given up a combined 5 earned runs which has lowered his ERA to 3.70 on the season. While he doesn’t possess the highest strikeout rate (5.6 per 9 innings), he gets outs. He also draws a very favorable in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field matchup against the Mets who are ranked 23rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Cosart is a nice contrarian play in both cash games and GPP’s. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7000 FD, $12550 DD, $7600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jacob Degrom – deGrom loves himself some home cooking. He has been dominant at Citi Field this season with a 1.47 ERA. He is averaging close to a strikeout per inning at home and has held opponents to a .203 batting average. Tonight he is facing a strikeout happy Marlins ball club (25% strikeout rate on the road) that is missing their best hitter in Giancarlo Stanton. Everything is perfectly aligned for deGrom to throw a gem tonight. Rating = 9
Salaries: $9400 FD, $19200 DD, $10900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Miami
Christian Yelich always deserves consideration against a RH pitcher, but there are better options in his price range. Take deGrom and avoid the Marlins offense tonight.
NY Mets
This is expected to be one of the lowest scoring games of the night. Cosart has pitched well his last 6 starts and has held both LH and RH hitters under a .320 wOBA this season. Avoid the Mets offense as well.
Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs
| Cincinnati | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
| Alfredo Simon | Vegas Moneyline | Travis Wood | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CIN (-114) | LEFT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.715 | 0.313 | 15.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.213 | 0.620 | 0.275 | 21.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.661 | 0.295 | 16.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.295 | 0.847 | 0.375 | 17.30% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs L | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Alfredo Simon – Since the start of August, Simon has posted an ERA right around 5.50. We’ve been suggesting that he would regress all season long and it has finally happened. Simon owns a very low K/9 of 5.9 which really caps his upside and makes it tough for him to overcome outings where he gives up a few earned runs. Even against a Cubs offense that is ranked 27th in wOBA vs. RH pitching, Simon is not a recommended fantasy option. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $6700 FD, $12900 DD, $6900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Travis Wood – Wood’s numbers on the season aren’t overly impressive, but he did pitch well in the month of August with a 3.18 ERA and 25 K’s over 34 innings of work. His BABIP this season is at .317 and you have to expect that to come down closer to around .300. At $6,000 on FD and DK, he’s certainly worth a look as a GPP play. He draws a nice matchup against the Reds who are ranked 27th in wOBA vs. LH pitching and he should get some help from mother nature as the wind is blowing in at about 10 MPH tonight. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6000 FD, $9050 DD, $6000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
Todd Frazier – Dual threat Frazier is in a nice spot tonight against Wood who has given up a .375 wOBA to RH hitters this season. Frazier has 26 HR’s and 20 SB’s and has been swinging a hot bat with 13 hits over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: None
Chicago Cubs
Chris Coghlan – Coghlan is a very sneaky value play tonight. His price is down on both FD and DK and I love the matchup against Simon who has given up 11 earned runs over his last 3 starts. Coghlan hits RH pitching well and actually has pretty decent power in his bat.
Additional Plays: Jorge Soler, Luis Valbuena
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