MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 1st
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Boston at Tampa Bay
| Boston | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Rubby De La Rosa | Vegas Moneyline | Drew Smyly | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-152) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.302 | 0.872 | 0.378 | 13.00% | SP vs. Left | 0.167 | 0.458 | 0.203 | 27.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.702 | 0.313 | 20.50% | SP vs. Right | 0.271 | 0.783 | 0.343 | 17.90% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP  | BOS vs L | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Rubby De La Rosa – De La Rosa takes the mound after a tough outing against the Blue Jays. He has now given up 11 earned runs over his last 3 starts, but gets a much easier matchup today. He’s facing a very talented Rays offense that is right around the league average in wOBA vs. RH pitching. He’s not my favorite play, but is worth consideration at with his depressed price tag. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6300 FD, $10300 DD, $5800 DK, $NA FF, $16200 SS, $NA FTD
- Drew Smyly – Smyly has really pitched well since joining the Rays. Over his last 4 starts, he has struck out 23 batters while only giving up a combined 4 earned runs. The Tigers have to be thinking, “who needs David Price anyway?” with the way that Smyly is pitching. He draws a favorable matchup against the Red Sox who have been the 3rd worst offense in baseball over the last 30 days. He should be able to put together another quality outing today. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8000 FD, $14400 DD, $8200 DK, $ FF, $22700 SS, $12550 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Boston
With Dustin Pedroia out (concussion) and Smyly pitching well, I will be avoiding the Red Sox hitters today.
Tampa Bay
Matt Joyce – Joyce is in a good spot today against De La Rosa who has given up a .378 wOBA vs. LH hitters. Joyce is always a pretty cheap option in the OF and offers good upside for the price.
Additional Plays: Ben Zobrist, James Loney
Philadelphia at Atlanta
| Philadelphia | Atlanta | ||||||||
| Cole Hamels | Vegas Moneyline | Julio Teheran | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | ATL (-142) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.214 | 0.588 | 0.270 | 20.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.651 | 0.289 | 18.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.664 | 0.294 | 24.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.608 | 0.272 | 24.00% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Cole Hamels – Hamels is a great GPP play today. While the Braves do hit LH pitching well (5th in wOBA vs. lefties), they also strike out at a 24% clip which is one of the highest rates in all of baseball. Hamels owns a 2.59 ERA with a K/9 of 8.7 on the season. He may have a hard time picking up the win, but makes a great upside play in tournaments. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $9500 FD, $20300 DD, $10900 DK, $NA FF, $25300 SS, $20650 FTD
- Julio Teheran – Teheran has been dominant at home this season with a 1.95 ERA. He has 79 K’s over 92 innings of work and has held opponents to a .198 batting average at home. I’m expecting him to mow through the Phillies offense that is ranked 28th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Run support may be a bit limited with Hamels on the mound, but I think he shuts the Phillies out. Rating = 8
Salaries: $8700 FD, $19150 DD, $8900 DK, $ FF, $24100 SS, $18650 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
Teheran has been dominant at home this season. Avoid the Phillies hitters today.
Atlanta
Justin Upton – Just like Hamels being a great GPP play, so are Justin Upton and Evan Gattis. Both have terrific power against LH pitching and both should have low ownership % as they have a tough matchup on paper.
Additional Plays: Evan Gattis
NY Mets at Miami
| NY Mets | Miami | ||||||||
| Zack Wheeler | Vegas Moneyline | Henderson Alvarez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIA (-125) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.268 | 0.780 | 0.349 | 20.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.261 | 0.665 | 0.292 | 15.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.203 | 0.570 | 0.258 | 25.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.276 | 0.732 | 0.324 | 14.20% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Zack Wheeler – Wheeler has only given up more than 2 earned runs 1 time in his last 10 starts. He has been an extremely consistent fantasy option and has lowered his ERA to 3.44 on the season to go with his K/9 of 8.7. Today he faces a strikeout happy Marlins offense in a very big Marlins Park. While the Marlins have hit well at home this season, Wheeler is still in play on multi-pitcher sites and in GPP’s. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7700 FD, $15200 DD, $8400 DK, $NA FF, $21100 SS, $15150 FTD
- Henderson Alvarez – Alvarez has struggled in his last 2 starts, but they were tough matchups in Colorado against the Rockies and in Anaheim against the Angels. He will look to bounce back today against a Mets offense that is ranked 26th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Alvarez has been terrific at home this season with a 1.46 ERA while holding opponents to a .229 batting average. This could be a nice spot to buy low on Alvarez. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7700 FD, $13150 DD, $7300 DK, $ FF, $21200 SS, $13850 FTD
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
Lucas Duda – Duda can’t hit at Citi Field, but he’s been terrific on the road. He’s batting .287 with a .384 wOBA on the road compared to a .151 batting average at home. He gets a favorable matchup against Alvarez who has given up a career .335 wOBA to LH hitters.
Additional Plays: David Wright
Miami
Christian Yelich – Yelich is one of the top OF plays today. He has crushed RH pitching all season long and draws a solid matchup against Wheeler who has given up a .343 wOBA to LH hitters. Yelich has also been swinging a hot bat with 14 hits over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Garrett Jones
Minnesota at Baltimore
| Minnesota | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Phil Hughes | Vegas Moneyline | Kevin Gausman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-142) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.641 | 0.282 | 22.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.740 | 0.329 | 16.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.297 | 0.733 | 0.321 | 20.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.676 | 0.301 | 18.20% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Phil Hughes – Hughes is coming off of his best month of the season. He pitched extremely well with a 2.06 ERA and 34 K’s over 35 innings of work. His price is still low for his current level of production, but you may want to avoid him today against the Orioles. Not only do they have a very powerful offense, but Hughes is a reverse splits pitcher that may have a tough time with the middle of this lineup. Rating = 5
Salaries: $8300 FD, $14200 DD, $8700 DK, $NA FF, $26300 SS, $14700 FTD
- Kevin Gausman – Gausman has a 3.84 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 6.5. He is a pitcher that has struck out a lot of batters in the minors, but that hasn’t exactly translated to a high strikeout rate in the majors. I don’t love his matchup against the Twins who have had the best offense in baseball over the last 30 days. They have a very tough lineup now that Joe Mauer is back. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6100 FD, $12250 DD, $6700 DK, $ FF, $16400 SS, $12200 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Danny Santana – Santana is a hits machine. He has 14 hits over his last 10 games with 5 multi-hit games during that stretch. He has some decent pop (7 HR’s) and great speed (12 SB’s). He has a favorable matchup against Gausman who has struggled with LH hitters.
Additional Plays: Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas
Baltimore
Adam Jones – As mentioned above, Hughes is a reverse splits pitcher. He gives up a much higher wOBA to RH hitters than he does to LH hitters. Jones has 3 multi-hit games in his last 9 and has 2 HR’s off of Hughes in his career.
Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz
Pittsburgh at St. Louis
| Pittsburgh | St. Louis | ||||||||
| Gerrit Cole | Vegas Moneyline | Lance Lynn | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-118) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.724 | 0.325 | 21.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.656 | 0.298 | 18.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.692 | 0.309 | 23.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.652 | 0.291 | 23.00% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Gerrit Cole – Cole is coming off of a terrific outing. His bullpen ended up letting him down as they let both of the runners he was responsible for score. That said, he still struck out 9 batters over 6 solid innings of work. That was against the Cardinals and now he gets to face them again today, only this time it will be in St. Louis. I think there are better plays for cash games, but Cole’s high strikeout rate puts him in play for tournaments. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8200 FD, $16150 DD, $9000 DK, $NA FF, $20600 SS, $16050 FTD
- Lance Lynn – Lynn is quietly having a very nice season. He owns a 2.79 ERA with a K/9 of 8.0. He has been dominant at home with a 2.34 ERA while holding opponents to a .227 wOBA. That said, he does draw a very tough matchup against the Pirates who are ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Lynn is in play, but there are other pitchers on the schedule that have a better shot of picking up the win. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8300 FD, $17450 DD, $9300 DK, $ FF, $23800 SS, $17950 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Even though I’m not crazy about Lynn today, I’m not going to be targeting the Pirates bats either. Lynn has held both LH and RH hitters under a .300 wOBA this season.
St. Louis
Matt Holliday – Holliday is in play because he has been on fire. Over his last 5 games, he has 7 hits (4 HR’s) and 11 RBI’s. He’s had 9 RBI’s in the last 2 games and he’s 5/9 off of Cole in his career.
Additional Plays: Matt Carpenter