MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-09-23 21:27:15

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Kansas City at Cleveland

Kansas City					Cleveland
Danny Duffy		Vegas Moneyline CLE -125			Carlos Carrasco		Vegas Over/Under7.0
LEFT					RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.128	0.360	0.170	18.00%	SP vs. Left	0.197	0.528	0.240	24.70%
SP vs. Right	0.219	0.651	0.292	19.30%	SP vs. Right	0.219	0.575	0.256	26.80%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Danny Duffy – Duffy will come off of the DL to make his first start since September 6th. He did have a simulated start last week, but the Royals may choose to play it safe with him tonight. Duffy has pitched well this season with a 2.42 ERA, but his peripheral stats don’t look nearly as impressive. He has an unsustainable .232 BABIP and he has had the benefit of some great defense behind him. His xFIP on the year is sitting at 4.40. While the Indians don’t hit LH pitching well as a team, Duffy is a fairly risky fantasy option tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7200 FD, $11550 DD, $7800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Carlos Carrasco – Carrasco has been terrific this season. He is sporting a 2.65 ERA (2.74 xFIP) with an elite strikeout rate of 9.2 batters per 9 innings. He has terrific velocity (upwards of a 98 MPH fastball) and rarely gives up walks or HR’s. While his matchup against the Royals isn’t ideal, he should still be able to rack up 6+ strikeouts tonight. Keep targeting Carrasco in all leagues until he gives us a reason not to. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9000 FD, $14450 DD, $8900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Avoid all Royals tonight against Carlos Carrasco who has held batters from both sides of the plate under a .260 wOBA this season.

Cleveland

Yan Gomes – The total in this game is low, but the RH hitters in this Indians lineup are certainly in play. As mentioned above, Duffy has not been nearly as dominant as his ERA would suggest. Gomes has had no problems with LH pitching this season as he has posted a .341 batting average and a .382 wOBA.

Additional Plays: Carlos Santana

Baltimore at NY Yankees

Baltimore					NY Yankees
Wei-Yin Chen		Vegas Moneyline NYY -110			Michael Pineda		Vegas Over/Under7.0
LEFT					RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.276	0.694	0.307	16.9%	SP vs. Left	0.216	0.592	0.259	19.60%
SP vs. Right	0.261	0.749	0.327	18.2%	SP vs. Right	0.221	0.583	0.257	13.20%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Wei-Yin Chen – Chen is a very consistent pitcher, the problem is that he isn’t a consistently high strikeout pitcher. On the season he owns a 3.58 ERA (3.76 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.7. Tonight he travels to New York to take on the Yankees in what will be Derek Jeter’s very last homestand. Baltimore is basically locked into the two seed and something tells me that the Yankees will come together and play well for their captain in this series. Chen’s price is a bit too high considering his matchup. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7600 FD, $14200 DD, $8600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Michael Pineda – Despite the pine tar issue earlier in the season, Pineda has really pitched well for the Yankees. He has only given up more than 2 earned runs once in his last 10 starts. He owns a 2.15 ERA (3.75 xFIP) with a K/9 of 5.9. The Yankees let him throw 100 pitches in his last start and I expect to see a similar pitch count from him tonight as long as he pitches well. The matchup isn’t ideal, but his price on FD makes him a solid tournament play. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $5900 FD, $15100 DD, $8500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Nelson Cruz – The Orioles are still technically alive for the one seed so their everyday starters should be in the lineup tonight. Cruz has been swinging a hot bat with 14 hits over his last 10 games.

Additional Plays: Adam Jones

NY Yankees

Derek Jeter – Jeter has always been a guy that plays his best in the biggest moments possible. I wouldn’t expect anything else out of the captain in his final homestand. Chen has had trouble with RH hitters this season as he has given up a .327 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate.

Additional Plays: Brian McCann, Brett Gardner

Seattle at Toronto

Seattle					Toronto
James Paxton		Vegas Moneyline SEA -125			J.A. Happ		Vegas Over/Under8.0
LEFT					LEFT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.214	0.551	0.262	27.1%	SP vs. Left	0.257	0.846	0.368	22.10%
SP vs. Right	0.204	0.554	0.248	19.5%	SP vs. Right	0.263	0.758	0.333	19.50%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• James Paxton – Paxton has pitched well this season. In his 11 starts, he has posted a 2.06 ERA (3.15 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.4. If this game was at Safeco, he would be a viable fantasy option, but unfortunately for Paxton, this game will be played in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays are ranked 3rd in wOBA at home and have a ton of firepower in their lineup. Do not pay up for Paxton in this tough matchup. Rating = 3

Salaries: $7200 FD, $13350 DD, $8700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• J.A. Happ – Happ is the preferred pitcher of the two starters tonight, but that’s not necessarily saying much. He owns a 4.35 ERA on the season with a respectable K/9 of 7.7. He does have the potential to give up big outings to his opponents though and he has had some serious reverse splits this season which doesn’t bode well for his matchup against a LH-heavy Mariners offense. Rating = 4.5

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Robinson Cano – Most people will see that Cano is facing a LH pitcher and immediately look elsewhere at 2B. This isn’t your typical lefty/lefty matchup though. Cano has a .332 wOBA vs. LH pitching this season and Happ has given up a .368 wOBA to LH hitters. He also sees a huge ballpark boost as this game is in the Rogers Centre.

Additional Plays: Kyle Seager, Austin Jackson

Toronto

Jose Bautista – The Blue Jays are one of the top teams to target offensively. Bautista has absolutely mashed LH pitching this season with a .342 batting average and a .463 wOBA. He is one of the odds on favorite to homer tonight and makes a great play in all leagues.

Additional Plays: Edwin Encarnacion, Danny Valencia, Jose Reyes, Dioner Navarro

Chicago White Sox at Detroit

Chicago White Sox					Detroit
Chris Bassitt		Vegas Moneyline DET -200			Kyle Lobstein		Vegas Over/Under8.5
RIGHT					LEFT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.302	0.741	0.336	16.0%	SP vs. Left	0.200	0.598	0.261	22.70%
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.234	0.701	0.311	11.30%
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs L		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Chris Bassitt – Bassitt (the HOUND) will be on the mound for the White Sox tonight. I’ll keep the analysis short here as it doesn’t need much explantion. The Tigers are ranked 2nd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and still have the division crown on the line. Meanwhile, the White Sox are counting down the days until the end of the season. Bassitt can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 2

Salaries: $5500 FD, $8750 DD, $5900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Kyle Lobstein – Lobstein hasn’t pitched all that well at the major-league level, but he does come into tonight’s game as a -200 favorite so if he can give the Tigers 5 good innings, he will likely be in line for the win. He draws a decent matchup against the White Sox who are ranked 12th in wOBA vs. LH pitching while striking out at a 22% clip. He may be worth a look as a tournament play, but is a bit too risky to trust in cash games. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6000 FD, $8750 DD, $6200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Alexei Ramirez – Shortstop is a very thin position tonight. Ramirez draws a nice matchup against Lobstein who gave up 4 earned runs in his last start. Ramirez meanwhile is finishing the season strong with 12 hits over his last 10 games. He’s also a nice dual-threat as he has good speed and decent power.

Additional Plays: Jose Abreu. Avisail Garcia

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – As mentioned above, the Tigers are one of the better offenses to target tonight. Bassitt is a rookie that doesn’t have electric stuff. Cabrera is expensive, but is the top 1B on the board tonight. In addition to a favorable matchup, he has also been swinging a hot bat with 13 hits and 5 walks over his last 10 games.

Additional Plays: J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler

Pittsburgh at Atlanta

Pittsburgh					Atlanta
Francisco Liriano		Vegas Moneyline PIT -140			Aaron Harang		Vegas Over/Under6.5
LEFT					RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.265	0.730	0.326	31.0%	SP vs. Left	0.290	0.758	0.335	17.00%
SP vs. Right	0.203	0.628	0.285	24.0%	SP vs. Right	0.251	0.695	0.308	19.10%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Francisco Liriano – Liriano is one of those pitchers that you never feel fully confident in when he’s in your lineup. He can be a dominant strikeout pitcher when he is locating pitches and he can give up big outings when his command is off. Over his last 3 starts, he has only given up 1 earned run while striking out 23 batters. While he did walk 5 batters in his last start, he is facing a strikeout happy Braves offense tonight in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Pirates are still in must-win mode and I’m expecting another strong September start from Liriano.Rating = 7

Salaries: $8700 FD, $15400 DD, $9900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Aaron Harang – Harang is coming off of two very solid starts in a row. He has only given up a combined 2 earned runs while striking out 17 batters. While that’s encouraging, he draws an extremely tough matchup against the Pirates who are ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Not only that, but the Pirates are still fighting to get into the playoffs while the Braves are officially out. This is a case of a motivated team vs. a dejected team. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6800 FD, $14100 DD, $6300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Russell Martin – Martin has been red hot. Over his last 10 games, he has 13 hits (3 HR’s) and 14 RBI’s. He also has great BvP numbers off of Aaron Harang as he has gone 8/17 with 2 XBH’s against him.

Additional Plays: Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen

Atlanta

Justin Upton – Upton is more of a tournament play, but he deserves a mention as he has some great splits in his favor tonight. Upton has a .414 wOBA at home and a .420 wOBA against LH pitching this season. He also has a HR off of Liriano in only 5 career at-bats.

Additional Plays: None

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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