MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 25 - Page Three
San Francisco at Colorado
| San Francisco | Colorado | ||||||||
 | Tim Hudson |  | Jorge De La Rosa | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| COL (-117) | 10 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.276 | 0.755 | 0.331 | 0.123 | SP vs. Left | 0.194 | 0.532 | 0.241 | 0.241 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.256 | 0.667 | 0.292 | 0.185 | SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.76 | 0.336 | 0.163 |
| Batter Splits | SF BvP | SF vs L | Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Tim Hudson
Salaries: $6900 FD, $5500 DK, $5500 FA, $ Vic, $11350 DD, $87600 FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.31 — Strikeout Rate: 13.9% — Walk Rate: 8.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 60.7%
2014: xFIP: 3.57 — Strikeout Rate: 15.2% — Walk Rate: 4.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 53.1%
Colorado Rockies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.338 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 22)
Analysis: Hudson has looked the pitcher he has been the last few seasons, average all-around. He is sporting a GB% of 60%+ which could bode well for his chances today at Coors, but it is never a winning strategy to take pitchers in this park. Rating = 3
Jorge De La Rosa
Salaries: $5900 FD, $6400 DK, $5850 FA, $ Vic, $8500 DD, $96900 FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.62 — Strikeout Rate: 17.7% — Walk Rate: 5.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 38.5%
2014: xFIP: 3.95 — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% — Walk Rate: 7.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.6%
San Francisco Giants vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 18.2% (Rank: 25)
Analysis: His first start of the season did not go so well and he is forced to make his second start at Coors as well. This is not a situation to get cut and De La Rosa should be avoided in all formats. Rating = 2
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
Buster Posey
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.143 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.182
Analysis: There are a few key tips everyone should know in Daily Fantasy. Playing Buster Posey against a subpar lefty is one major winning strategy. Posey has mashed lefties in his career for a wOBA of .408 and he has a prime matchup against De La Rosa in Coors. He is one of the top plays at any position tonight.
Secondary Plays:
All 1-6 starters are in play today and I like the Giants bats a bit more than the Rockies bats tonight.
Colorado
Corey Dickerson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.465 — ISO: 0.388 — OBP: 0.377
Analysis: While CarGo was moved to sixth in the order, the hot hitting Dickerson was moved up to second. He came through with two hits and a run batted in yesterday. He has another great matchup against Hudson who has allowed a wOBA of .353 to lefties. All the bats are in play at Coors today, but Dickerson looks like a top option.
Secondary Plays:
All 1-6 bats are in play for the Rockies.
Pittsburgh at Arizona
| Pittsburgh | Arizona | ||||||||
 | A.J. Burnett |  | Rubby De La Rosa | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (-118) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.785 | 0.35 | 0.191 | SP vs. Left | 0.298 | 0.832 | 0.364 | 0.146 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.713 | 0.316 | 0.215 | SP vs. Right | 0.274 | 0.792 | 0.348 | 0.193 |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
A.J. Burnett
Salaries: $6900 FD, $7600 DK, $6400 FA, $ Vic, $15400 DD, $94300 FF
2015: xFIP: 3.12 — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% — Walk Rate: 6.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 59.6%
2014: xFIP: 3.95 — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% — Walk Rate: 10.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.9%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 12)
Analysis: Burnett has allowed a lot of base runners (24) in his first three games, but his xFIP of 3.12 over that time is promising. Cole showed us yesterday that although Chase Field is a hitter’s park, this Diamondbacks offense is controllable in this environment. With Burnett’s 59.6 GB Rate this year, he should be able to keep the ball in the ballpark and makes a decent second starter due to his high K rate. Rating = 6
Rubby De La Rosa
Salaries: $6200 FD, $6100 DK, $4750 FA, $ Vic, $9850 DD, $75400 FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.60 — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% — Walk Rate: 6.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.7%
2014: xFIP: 4.03 — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% — Walk Rate: 7.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.7%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.283 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 22.4% (Rank: 7)
Analysis: Rubby has not been good this year as he sports a 6.00 ERA after three starts. He has only had to make one start at Chase Field so far and gave up six earned runs including two home runs. The struggles and the park factors alone make his an avoid tonight. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Gregory Polanco
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.158 — OBP: 0.305
Analysis: I talked up Polanco last Saturday and he ended up taking a rest day. Since then, Polanco has strung together eight hits, including four extra base hits and three steals. He is hitting in the heart of this Pirates order and has a very nice field advantage in Chase tonight.
Secondary Plays:
Andrew McCutchen
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.300 — ISO: 0.170 — OBP: 0.304
Neil Walker
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.157 — OBP: 0.296
Josh Harrison
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.282 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.270
Arizona
None
Secondary Plays:
Paul Goldschmidt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.182 — OBP: 0.446
David Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.258 — OBP: 0.306
Ender Inciarte
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 — ISO: 0.130 — OBP: 0.298
LA Dodgers at San Diego
| LA Dodgers | San Diego | ||||||||
 | Brandon McCarthy |  | Ian Kennedy | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD (-121) | |||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | ||||||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | ||||||||
| Batter Splits | LA BvP | LA vs R | Batter Splits | SD BvP | SD vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Brandon McCarthy
Salaries: $7800 FD, $8800 DK, $6250 FA, $ Vic, $14450 DD, $101800 FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.08 — Strikeout Rate: 34.7% — Walk Rate: 4.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.9%
2014: xFIP: 2.87 — Strikeout Rate: 20.9% — Walk Rate: 4.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 52.6%
San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 19)
Analysis: McCarthy is coming off his best performance of the season by far. He went six strong against Colorado of zero run ball and added six strikeouts. McCarthy’s advanced stats look great with a 2.08 xFIP to start the season to go along with being tied with Bauer for the top strikeout percent in the league at 34.7%. He gets a major park boost today in what has been an improved Padres squad. McCarthy makes a solid play even against a Padres offense ranked 12th in the league in wOBA against righties. Rating = 7
Ian Kennedy
Salaries: $ FD, $8000 DK, $6750 FA, $ Vic, $13250 DD, $ FF
2015: xFIP: 3.92. — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% — Walk Rate: 20.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 83.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.44 — Strikeout Rate: 24.5% — Walk Rate: 8.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.373 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 17)
Analysis: Kennedy was only able to make it through 2.1 innings this year before landing on the DL. He gets the advantage of pitching at home in his first start back against the Dodgers. The matchup isn’t ideal, but Kennedy is coming off a great season for the Padres last year where he had a career high 9.27 K/9 and career low 3.44 xFIP. I usually like to wait to see a pitcher’s first start back to put total faith in him, but he makes a decent tournament play tonight. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
Adrian Gonzalez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.573 — ISO: 0.490 — OBP: 0.482
Analysis: This game looks to be a low scoring, pitcher’s duel on paper. Yet, Gonzalez is hard to ignore in this matchup against a pitcher coming off the DL. He has slowed down a bit over the last week, but is still batting over .400 and has a ridiculous .573 wOBA against righties.
Secondary Plays:
Jimmy Rollins
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.173 — OBP: 0.311
San Diego
None
Secondary Plays:
Yonder Alonso
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.111 — OBP: 0.463
Matt Kemp
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.158 — OBP: 0.328
Texas at LA Angels
| Texas | LA Angels | ||||||||
 | Colby Lewis |  | C.J. Wilson | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TEX (154) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | ||||||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | ||||||||
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs L | Batter Splits | ANA BvP | ANA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Colby Lewis
Salaries: $6300 FD, $7100 DK, $5000 FA, $ Vic, $12150 DD, $83400 FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.70 — Strikeout Rate: 14.5% — Walk Rate: 5.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 34.4%
2014: xFIP: 4.36 — Strikeout Rate: 17.5% — Walk Rate: 6.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 33.0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.262 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 15)
Analysis: Lewis is one of the worst right-handed pitchers to take the mound in the league. He does not strike out at a high rate and is allowing a wOBA of .340+ from both sides of the plate. He has a tough matchup against the Angels and who have struggled this year against righties, but still are one of the better offenses in baseball. Rating = 4
C.J. Wilson
Salaries: $7600 FD, $7600 DK, $6250 FA, $ Vic, $13200 DD, $ FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 5.46 — Strikeout Rate: 12.5% — Walk Rate: 10.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.8%
2014: xFIP: 4.15 — Strikeout Rate: 19.1% — Walk Rate: 8.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.1%
Texas Rangers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 20)
Analysis: Wilson’s first two starts showed the good side and bad side of Wilson. He can go eight strong of zero earned run ball, or he can give up six in 5.2 innings. He bounced back a bit in his last start against the Astros, while striking out eight and will look to continue that momentum against the Rangers who have been tough on lefties with a wOBA of .326 against them. He is not a trustable option for cash games, but has put up a tournament style winning performance so far this year. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Texas
Adrian Beltre
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.244 — ISO: 0.152 — OBP: 0.224
Analysis: Beltre has always been a top tier hitter against LH pitching. In 2014, he has a wOBA of .421 and he has a solid matchup today against Wilson who allowed righties a wOBA of .345 in 2014.
Secondary Plays:
Elvis Andrus
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.142 — ISO: 0.043 — OBP: 0.146
LA Angels
Kole Calhoun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.289
Analysis: Lewis is one of the worst RH pitchers in baseball, so taking players against him is always a good idea. Calhoun has come back after taking a few games off and has had six hits in his last four games, including two home runs and five runs batted in. He has a wOBA of .341 against righties and should be in line to score multiple runs today.
Secondary Plays:
Mike Trout
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.429 — ISO: 0.244 — OBP: 0.412
Albert Pujols
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.233 — OBP: 0.340
David Freese
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.253 — ISO: 0.125 — OBP: 0.240
Minnesota at Seattle
| Minnesota | Seattle | ||||||||
 | Trevor May |  | James Paxton | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SEA (-160) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | ||||||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | ||||||||
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs L | Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Trevor May
Salaries: $6000 FD, $6200 DK, $5000 FA, $ Vic, $8500 DD, $69800 FF
2015: xFIP: 3.85 — Strikeout Rate: 17.0% — Walk Rate: 2.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.1%
2014: xFIP: 4.38 — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% — Walk Rate: 10.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 35.7%
Seattle Mariners vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 21.4% (Rank: 13)
Analysis: May was a guy who came into the league last year with what was said to be average to slightly above average stuff. He has struggled to show us that potential in 11 career starts that has seen his xFIP at a 4.27 and ERA of 7.26. May is coming off a solid start against the Indians where he went six strong while giving up just one earned run. He will look to pitch similar against a Seattle squad that is middle of the league offensively. With that said, May is not someone who is on my radar due to a short leash and lack of big league strikeouts this year. Rating = 4
James Paxton
Salaries: $6400 FD, $7000 DK, $6000 FA, $ Vic, $11050 DD, $90400 FF
2015: xFIP: 3.89 — Strikeout Rate: 17.4% — Walk Rate: 4.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.54 — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% — Walk Rate: 9.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 54.8%
Minnesota Twins vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.273 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 17.1% (Rank: 23)
Analysis: Paxton has really struggled so far this year after pitching very well in 13 starts last year. He is coming off getting crushed by the Rangers for seven earned runs in just 2.2 innings and has a year ERA of 8+. His advanced stats show that his ERA should drop pretty dramatically soon, and he does have a good matchup against the Twins who have a .273 wOBA against LH pitching this year. There are not a whole lot of pitching options on this night slate, which makes Paxton a decent sleeper for his price. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Brian Dozier
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.253 — ISO: 0.125 — OBP: 0.240
Analysis: Dozier hits very well against LH pitching and has a wOBA of .342 against them to start the year. Cano is going to be a popular option tonight at second, but Dozier could be a good contrarian tournament play that could pay off.
Secondary Plays:
Kennys Vargas
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.418 — ISO: 0.176 — OBP: 0.421
Seattle
Robinson Cano
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.152 — OBP: 0.367
Analysis: Cano smashes both RH and LH pitching, but his numbers against righties are very solid. He has a great matchup against a struggling, young right-handed pitcher tonight in May who has a career wOBA of .370 to lefties. Cano is the top player at the second base position tonight.
Secondary Plays:
Nelson Cruz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.308 — OBP: 0.315
Brad Miller
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.171 — OBP: 0.410
Seth Smith
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.294 — ISO: 0.161 — OBP: 0.297