MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 25th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Cleveland at Detroit
| Cleveland | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Trevor Bauer |  | Alfredo Simon | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| DET (-123) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.728 | 0.324 | 23.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.715 | 0.313 | 15.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.744 | 0.329 | 19.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.665 | 0.296 | 15.90% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Trevor Bauer
Salaries: $8500 FanDuel, $7800 DraftKings, $6250 FA, $ Vic, $14850 DD, $118700 FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.11 — Strikeout Rate: 34.7% — Walk Rate: 14.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.5%
2014: xFIP: 4.14 — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% — Walk Rate: 9.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 35.3%
Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.346 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 15)
Analysis: Bauer has had a very solid first three starts to the season and if it wasn’t for a blown save would be 3-0. Although, his 0.95 ERA should soon begin to regress (3.14 xFIP), and that may start against a Tigers offense that currently ranks well in wOBA against right-handed pitching. The matchup brings his value down a bit, but with an early season 34.7% K rate, Bauer could be a tournament winner today. Rating = 7
Alfredo Simon
Salaries: $7800 FD, $5600 DK, $5500 FA, $ Vic, $12300 DD, $113200 FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.43 — Strikeout Rate: 15.8% — Walk Rate: 2.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.3%
2014: xFIP: 4.05 — Strikeout Rate: 15.5% — Walk Rate: 6.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.2%
Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.285 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Another pitcher who is off to a good start to the season has been Simon. He comes into this game with a 2.97 FIP as well as a 48.7% Fly Ball rate, which has led to Simon only allowing one home run in his three starts. Simon did open his season against these Indians and gave up three earned runs in 5.1 innings. With a tough matchup and a low 5.23 K/9, Simon makes only for a deep second starter today. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Carlos Santana
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.310 — OBP: 0.314
Analysis: Santana is not hitting for a high average so far this season, but has walked ten times, while hitting three home runs. Santana has a wOBA of .351 so far this season against right-handed pitchers, and although Simon has pitched well against righties (.081 wOBA), he has allowed a .300+ wOBA against lefties. Santana’s catcher allowance at certain sites makes him a great play today.
Secondary Plays:
Jason Kipnis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.067 — OBP: 0.344
Michael Brantley
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.244 — ISO: 0.056 — OBP: 0.263
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.468 — ISO: 0.163 — OBP: 0.500
Analysis: Cabrera continues to be one of the top hitters in baseball in 2015. He has a ridiculous .468 wOBA against RH pitching and an OPS of 1.018. The matchup is not ideal, but some runs should be scored against Bauer and my guess is Miggy should be in the middle of it.
Secondary Plays:
Yoenis Cespedes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.204 — OBP: 0.346
Anthony Gose
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.442 — ISO: 0.212 — OBP: 0.412
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati
| Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Jake Arrieta |  | Anthony Desclafani | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (-115) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.195 | 0.554 | 0.251 | 29.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.319 | 0.892 | 0.391 | 19.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.204 | 0.521 | 0.234 | 25.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.710 | 0.307 | 16.20% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jake Arrieta
Salaries: $9600 FD, $9300 DK, $6850 FA, $ Vic, $15050 DD, $151600 FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.76 — Strikeout Rate: 23.8% — Walk Rate: 5.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 52.6%
2014: xFIP: 2.73 — Strikeout Rate: 27.2% — Walk Rate: 6.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 16)
Analysis: Arrieta has picked up exactly where he left off for this Cubs team last season. He is fresh off another strong seven inning, one earned run performance against a Pirates squad that included seven strikeouts. Along with his lack of earned run against him, Arrieta has a 23.8% strikeout rate, and now gets a matchup against the Reds, who are ranked 22nd against RH pitching in wOBA this year. There are a few solid options in the early slate at pitcher and Arrieta is right up there with the best. Rating = 8
Salaries: $9600 FD, $9300 DK, $6850 FA, $ Vic, $15050 DD, $151600 FF
Anthony Desclafani
Salaries: $7800 FD, $6900 DK, $5500 FA, $ Vic, $8500 DD, $67800 FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.83 — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% — Walk Rate: 5.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.80 — Strikeout Rate: 17.8% — Walk Rate: 3.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 35.5%
Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 11)
Analysis: DeSclafani has got off to a great start this year. He has gone at least six innings in each of his starts and has struck out at least five batters as well. He shut down this Cubs offense in seven strong innings of two hit ball, but that was B.K.B (Before Kris Bryant). This offense has improved with the recent additions to the Cubs squad and is rolling at the moment. With an improved offense, I do not have total faith in DeSclafani repeating his earlier performance and will only be using him as a tournament play. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.098 — OBP: 0.426
Analysis: DeSclafani has pitched very well this year, but Rizzo is swinging a very hot bat for the Cubs. He has ten hits over his last seven games, including two doubles and a home run. Rizzo is locked in at the moment and makes a great option at first for the early slate.
Secondary Plays:
Kris Bryant
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.506 — ISO: 0.158 — OBP: 0.577
Jorge Soler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.216 — OBP: 0.309
Cincinnati
None
Secondary Plays:
Joey Votto
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.511 — ISO: 0.417 — OBP: 0.446
Billy Hamilton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.327
Kansas City at Chicago White Sox
| Kansas City | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
 | Edinson Volquez |  | John Danks | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| KCR (-121) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.728 | 0.321 | 17.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.709 | 0.317 | 10.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.634 | 0.286 | 17.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.270 | 0.811 | 0.355 | 16.60% |
| Batter Splits | KC BvP | KC vs L | Batter Splits | CWS BvP | CWS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Edinson Volquez
Salaries: $8600 FD, $7200 DK, $5250 FA, $ Vic, $13100 DD, $ FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.54 — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% — Walk Rate: 3.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.4%
2014: xFIP: 4.20 — Strikeout Rate: 17.3% — Walk Rate: 8.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.4%
Chicago White Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 21.4% (Rank: 14)
Analysis: Volquez has begun the year with some success. In his first three starts, Volquez holds a 1.99 ERA and has struck out batters at a 20.2% clip. His biggest improvement early in the season has been his control, which has resulted in a 1.19 BB/9, about three walks less than his career average. If he can continue to keep the walks down, Volquez could be a solid tournament play against a White Sox team that does strike out at a 21.4% clip against righties. Rating = 7
John Danks
Salaries: $6200 FD, $5200 DK, $5000 FA, $ Vic, $8500 DD, $70000 FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.62 — Strikeout Rate: 11.0% — Walk Rate: 6.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 31.5%
2014: xFIP: 5.10 — Strikeout Rate: 15.1% — Walk Rate: 8.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.3%
Kansas City Royals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.363 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 10.7% (Rank: 30)
Analysis: John Danks is never going to be someone on your daily fantasy radar. He has a xFIP of 5.10, a low 4.41 K/9 and a very low GB% of 31.5. This has resulted in 11 earned runs, three home runs against and only eight strikeouts in his first three starts. He has a tough matchup against the Royals, who are notorious for their low strikeout rate (10.7% for lowest in the Majors) and who offense currently has the .363 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. He is an easy avoid this afternoon. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Lorenzo Cain
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.497 — ISO: 0.259 — OBP: 0.500
Analysis: This whole Royals offense is playing very well right now. They currently hold the third-highest wOBA in the league against LH pitchers (.363) and Cain has been a big part of it. Not only does Cain have a 400+ wOBA to lefties, he has five stolen bases this year to go along with his seven extra-base hits.
Secondary Plays:
Salvador Perez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.148 — OBP: 0.296
Alcides Escobar
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.257 — ISO: 0.095 — OBP: 0.261
Chicago White Sox
Adam Eaton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.236 — ISO: 0.047 — OBP: 0.271
Analysis: Eaton has struggled to start the season, but was a great target last year against RH pitching. Batting leadoff, and priced down, Eaton had a wOBA of .344 in 2014 against righties along with an OBP of .358. He doesn’t have the biggest upside of the outfield options, but can be a great cash game when he is seeing the ball right.
Secondary Plays:
Jose Abreu
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.492 — ISO: 0.400 — OBP: 0.408
Houston at Oakland
| Houston | Oakland | ||||||||
 | Scott Feldman |  | Kendall Graveman | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| OAK (-125) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.267 | 0.715 | 0.314 | 12.6% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.258 | 0.737 | 0.325 | 15.7% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Scott Feldman
Salaries: $6400 FD, $5900 DK, $4850 FA, $ Vic, $10900 DD, $83800 FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.72 — Strikeout Rate: 11.1% — Walk Rate: 1.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 53.2%
2014: xFIP: 4.19 — Strikeout Rate: 14.0% — Walk Rate: 6.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.9%
Oakland A’s vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.346 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 26)
Analysis: Feldman has always just been an average to below average pitcher in the majors. This year, the long ball has devastated him as he has allowed five so far in three starts. This A’s squad ripped him for three of those about two weeks ago and are in the top five in the league in wOBA against right-handed pitchers. Feldman is a pitcher that will never be a guy to take a flyer on, regardless of matchup. Rating = 4
Kendall Graveman
Salaries: $5100 FD, $4900 DK, $4500 FA, $ Vic, $8500 DD, $70000 FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 5.92 — Strikeout Rate: 10.0% — Walk Rate: 13.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 55.8%
2014: xFIP: 1.68 — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% — Walk Rate: 0.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 64.3%
Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 25.1% (Rank: 1)
Analysis: There was a few people who were excited about Gravemen entering this season, but he has really struggled so far. He was lit up in his first start for seven earned runs and is coming off a game where he allowed seven baserunners and only lasted three innings against the Angels. Gravemen is facing an Astros team that strikes out at 25.1% rate against right-handed pitching, but I am not sure that is enough to make me want to play him in any formats. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Houston
Luis Valbuena
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.366 — OBP: 0.304
Analysis: Valbuena has been a bit of a nice find for the Astros. He hits in the heart of the order against righties and has come through with five home runs and seven runs batted in. If he can get his average up a bit, he will be on track for a fantastic season.
Secondary Plays:
Jason Castro
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.129 — OBP: 0.405
Oakland
Billy Butler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.179 — OBP: 0.379
Going back to last year, Feldman actually fared more poorly against hitters from the right side of the plate. In 2014, he gave up a wOBA of .325 to righties and is currently allowing a wOBA of .500+. This makes Butler in a great spot today as he may be underowned at a stacked first base position, but has been mashing everything so far this year. Butler has a .369 average coming into this game with three home runs and twelve runs batted in.
Secondary Plays:
Stephen Vogt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.508 — ISO: 0.405 — OBP: 0.449
Sam Fuld
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.204 — OBP: 0.379
NY Mets at NY Yankees
| NY Mets | NY Yankees | ||||||||
 | Matt Harvey |  | CC Sabathia | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-110) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | ||||||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.320 | 0.921 | 0.401 | 22.50% | ||||
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs L | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Matt Harvey
Salaries: $10100 FD, $10300 DK, $7400 FA, $ Vic, $18400 DD, $ FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.11 — Strikeout Rate: 32.0% — Walk Rate: 1.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.0%
2014: xFIP: 2.63 — Strikeout Rate: 27.7% — Walk Rate: 4.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.7%
New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 22.4% (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Harvey is exactly what is looked for in a fantasy starter. His high K rate of 32% this year is good for fifth in the majors currently, but what is even more impressive is the fact that he has only given up one walk in his first three starts. With that said, he does a tough matchup going into a park like Yankee Stadium, but still should be looked at as a top starter in the early slate due to his extremely high upside an is pitching in the game with the lowest total in the slate. Rating = 8
CC Sabathia
Salaries: $7600 FD, $8400 DK, $6050 FA, $ Vic, $13700 DD, $98700 FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.70 — Strikeout Rate: 23.0% — Walk Rate: 4.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 61.4%
2014: xFIP: 3.11 — Strikeout Rate: 24.4% — Walk Rate: 4.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.3%
New York Mets vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 22)
Analysis: Sabathia has not had the benefit of pitching against any subpar offenses to start the season. In his first three starts, he has faced teams that are in the top ten in the league for wOBA against left-handed pitching. Things get a bit easier today as he gets a matchup against the Mets. If Sabathia wants to pitch well this year, he needed desperately to improve on his awful 1.96 HR/9 from 2014. So far this year, he has a 0.44, which could be contributed a lot to his 61.4% GB rate. Sabathia is still difficult to trust, but he is capable of putting together a solid effort along with a number of strikeouts. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
Michael Cuddyer
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.457 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.563
Analysis: Cuddyer should be hitting cleanup for this Mets squad that has played a lot better than expected on the offensive end. Cuddyer has raked LH pitching for a wOBA of 400+ this year and if Sabathia struggles at all, Cuddyer could be in the thick of it.
Secondary Plays:
None
NY Yankees
None
Secondary Plays:
Jacoby Ellsbury
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.265 — ISO: 0.023 — OBP: 0.313
Alex Rodriguez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.494 — ISO: 0.387 — OBP: 0.462