MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 25 - Page Two

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-04-25 20:46:42

Washington at Miami

Washington					Miami
			Stephen Strasburg					Tom Koehler
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS (-128)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.231	0.653	0.287	0.243	SP vs. Left	0.239	0.649	0.292	0.199
SP vs. Right	0.25	0.687	0.302	0.307	SP vs. Right	0.249	0.737	0.329	0.182
Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Stephen Strasburg

Salaries: $9600 FD, $10000 DK, $7300 FA, $ Vic, $17400 DD, $142000 FF

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.24 — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% — Walk Rate: 5.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.0%
2014: xFIP: 2.56 — Strikeout Rate: 27.9% — Walk Rate: 5.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.9%

Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 23.5% (Rank: 4)

Analysis: Strasburg has struggled a bit to start his campaign this year, yet he is coming off his best performance so far. It was against a below-average Phillies squad where he went seven strong with only one earned run and seven strikeouts. He will look to continue that momentum into a solid matchup against a Marlins squad that has a team wOBA of less than .300 against righties so far this season. Add that to the fact that they are in the top five in strikeouts against RH pitching for the season and we have the makings of a solid start. Between Strasburg, Arrieta and Harvey, we have three guys that can really do some damage, and for one pitcher sites, I think Strasburg has the best matchup. It is a very tough decision of who to play of the three and they could all pitch well this afternoon, but I will give a slight edge to Strasburg. Rating = 9

Tom Koehler

Salaries: $6100 FD, $5600 DK, $5150 FA, $ Vic, $8500 DD, $85500 FF

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 5.46 — Strikeout Rate: 12.5% — Walk Rate: 10.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.8%
2014: xFIP: 4.15 — Strikeout Rate: 19.1% — Walk Rate: 8.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.1%

Washington Nationals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.281 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 23.7% (Rank: 3)

Analysis: Koehler should never be in consideration for your fantasy lineups. He has always struggled with his control and that has carried over into this season with a 4.30 BB/9 in his first few starts. He does have a decent matchup against a Nationals squad that has struggled this year against right-handed pitching (.281 wOBA), but his upside is capped too low to play him today. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Bryce Harper
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.273 — OBP: 0.408

Analysis: Harper against average RH pitching has been a recipe for success so far this year. All four of Harper’s home runs have come against righties this year and he is hitting for a wOBA of .400+ so far this year. Add this to the fact that he gets a solid matchup against Koehler, who has struggled against lefties (wOBA of .444), and you have a solid outfield play.

Secondary Plays:

Ian Desmond
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.375

Miami

None

Secondary Plays:

Giancarlo Stanton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.426 — ISO: 0.333 — OBP: 0.333

Toronto at Tampa Bay

Toronto					Tampa Bay
			Daniel Norris					Erasmo Ramirez
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.279	0.79	0.353	0.168
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.27	0.848	0.371	0.192
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	TB BvP		TB vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Daniel Norris

Salaries: $5600 FD, $5900 DK, $ FA, $ Vic, $8500 DD, $77000 FF

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 6.05 — Strikeout Rate: 16.7% — Walk Rate: 11.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 22.5%
2014: xFIP: 5.85 — Strikeout Rate: 13.3% — Walk Rate: 16.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 35.0%

Tampa Bay vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 24.3% (Rank: 7)

Analysis: Norris came into this season with some decent hype that made him sound like a high K pitcher who should have a solid rookie season. So far, that has not come true as his strikeouts are far down from him minor league numbers and has been hit hard at both Rogers Centre as well as parks that are not known to be so hitter advantageous. He does however have a few things going for him today with a solid matchup in a hitters park, so I can see taking a tournament flyer on him. But after complaining of a dead arm in his recent start, he is a tournament play only. Rating = 5

Erasmo Ramirez

Salaries: $4600 FD, $4500 DK, $ FA, $ Vic, $8500 DD, $50000 FF

2015: xFIP: 5.51 — Strikeout Rate: 15.0% — Walk Rate: 15.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 64.0%
2014: xFIP: 4.81 — Strikeout Rate: 17.8% — Walk Rate: 10.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 37.7%

Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.343 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 21)

Analysis: There is not a whole lot to say about Erasmo other than the fact that in 6.1 innings this year he has allowed 15 runs. He is not in consideration in any matchup, but is a play we can look to attack against a solid Blue Jays offense today. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.271 — ISO: 0.192 — OBP: 0.250

Analysis: EE has not had to hot of a start to the season, but he does have multi-home run potential any time he takes the field. I expect a big game from this Blue Jays squad and Edwin should be a major part of it.

Secondary Plays:

Devon Travis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.436 — ISO: 0.214 — OBP: 0.426

Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.304 — OBP: 0.328

Jose Reyes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.287 — ISO: 0.073 — OBP: 0.302

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.417

Analysis: Longo against LH pitching has always been a recipe for success. This year has been no different as he continues to have a .300+ wOBA on the season against lefties and should be batting cleanup today. Norris has allowed a wOBA of 400+ from both sides of the plate this year and the Rays could take advantage of that today.

Secondary Plays:

Steven Souza
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.434 — ISO: 0.462 — OBP: 0.333

Atlanta at Philadelphia

Atlanta					Philadelphia
			Shelby Miller					David Buchanan
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ATL (-125)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.235	0.709	0.314	0.16	SP vs. Left	0.226	0.593	0.272	0.127
SP vs. Right	0.23	0.689	0.307	0.172	SP vs. Right	0.284	0.82	0.357	0.153
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Shelby Miller

Salaries: $8400 FD, $7300 DK, $5750 FA, $ Vic, $11600 DD, $105900 FF

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.04— Strikeout Rate: 16.7% — Walk Rate: 10.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 55.6%
2014: xFIP: 4.47 — Strikeout Rate: 16.6% — Walk Rate: 9.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.9%

Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.338 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 10)

Analysis: Miller has had a good start for his new team and has a 1.69 ERA after three starts. He is coming off an impressive performance against a solid Toronto team at Rogers Centre and will be in a much easier position today against Philly. His 16.7% strikeout rate is not spectacular, but he could have another five or six strikeout performance against the Phillies, who are tenth in the league in strikeout percentage against righties (22.2). He is not going to blow you away with his numbers today, but looks to be a decent second starter today. Rating = 6

David Buchanan

Salaries: $4900 FD, $4800 DK, $4500 FA, $ Vic, $8500 DD, $65000 FF

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 5.71 — Strikeout Rate: 11.1% — Walk Rate: 12.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.9%
2014: xFIP: 4.14 — Strikeout Rate: 14.1% — Walk Rate: 6.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.7%

Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 18.2% (Rank: 24)

Analysis: Buchanan has what looked like a great early season matchup against a Braves squad that had very low offensive projections. He also has a good matchup against this Braves squad that is 21st in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Buchanan should not be played regardless of the matchup, as he sports a low 11.1% strikeout percentage to go along with a 5.93 BB/9. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.282 — OBP: 0.302

Analysis: Any time Freeman gets a below average righty on the mound, he makes for a solid play. Freeman smashed RH pitching for a wOBA of .388 in 2014 and has carried it right over to this year. This game is a great pitcher to target Freeman in, as Buchanan has allowed a wOBA of .434 to lefties so far this year.

Secondary Plays:

Nick Markakis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.446 — ISO: 0.063 — OBP: 0.525

A.J. Pierzynski
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.556 — ISO: 0407 — OBP: 0.464

Philadelphia

None

Secondary Plays:

Cody Asche
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 01568 — OBP: 0.319

Chase Utley
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.187 — ISO: 0.086 — OBP: 0.205

Boston at Baltimore

Boston					Baltimore
			Justin Masterson					Wei-Yin Chen
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (-111)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.312	0.91	0.4	0.145	SP vs. Left	0.267	0.671	0.298	0.169
SP vs. Right	0.237	0.729	0.332	0.255	SP vs. Right	0.262	0.746	0.326	0.178
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs L		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Justin Masterson

Salaries: $6800 FD, $6300 DK, $5550 FA, $ Vic, $13250 DD, $80000 FF

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.33 — Strikeout Rate: 24.3% — Walk Rate: 11.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 59.5%
2014: xFIP: 4.08 — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% — Walk Rate: 11.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 58.2%

Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.348 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 24.5% (Rank: 2)

Analysis: Masterson just faced this Orioles squad and pitched decently well against them. He went five innings of one run ball and struck out six batters. For this offense to see Masterson twice in such close succession may not bode well for him. Add this to his lack of innings due to his high 4.60 BB/9 rate takes away a lot of fantasy value, and I will be avoiding him tonight. Rating = 4

Wei-Yin Chen

Salaries: $7200 FD, $6800 DK, $5750 FA, $ Vic, $11350 DD, $102400 FF

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 5.68 — Strikeout Rate: 16.7% — Walk Rate: 12.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.6%
2014: xFIP: 3.75 — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% — Walk Rate: 4.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.0%

Boston Red Sox vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.332 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 11)

Analysis: Chen has not had a solid start to the year, as he has a 5.68 xFIP after his first three starts. He is coming off a difficult effort against this Red Sox squad where he allowed five runs (no earned) in only 4.1 innings pitched. This game features one of the higher totals of the night slate and both pitchers should be avoided. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Hanley Ramirez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.720 — ISO: 0.900 — OBP: 0.538

Analysis: Hanley has been exactly what the Red Sox wanted, a guy to hit for power, average and drive in some runs for this high-scoring offense. Hanley is sitting at six home runs on the season and had a nice two hit, one home run game last night. He has been a lefty crusher in his career and had a wOBA of .383 against LH pitching in 2014. This game features one of the higher totals of the day and Hanley should be in store for a solid effort.

Secondary Plays:

Dustin Pedroia
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.599 — ISO: 0.636 — OBP: 0.462

Mookie Betts
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.417 — ISO: 0.300 — OBP: 0.364

Pablo Sandoval
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.049 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.071

Baltimore

Jimmy Paredes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.460 — ISO: 0.348 — OBP: 0.375

Analysis: Paredes has been hitting in some extremely favorable spots in this Orioles order the last few games. This has included batting third as well as second in the order, and he has come through in a big way. He has eight hits in his last six games, including two home runs and two doubles. He is still $2000 over at DK, which makes him a very solid play at either the third base position or one of your outfield spots.

Secondary Plays:

Adam Jones
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.435 — ISO: 0.235 — OBP: 0.421

Manny Machado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.239 — OBP: 0.302

Alejandro De Aza
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.191 — OBP: 0.286

St. Louis at Milwaukee

St. Louis					Milwaukee
			Adam Wainwright					Wily Peralta
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-160)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.243	0.625	0.277	0.207	SP vs. Left	0.3	0.82	0.361	0.185
SP vs. Right	0.199	0.542	0.243	0.193	SP vs. Right	0.213	0.606	0.277	0.183
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Wainwright

Salaries: $9600 FD, $9400 DK, $7200 FA, $ Vic, $18000 DD, $147100 FF

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.14 — Strikeout Rate: 16.3% — Walk Rate: 3.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.34 — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% — Walk Rate: 5.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.3%

Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.274 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 22.8% (Rank: 6)

Analysis: Wainwright continues to pitch well each and every year. His strikeouts are a bit down this year at a 6 K/9, but the rest of his numbers look solid. His walk rate is down, his BABIP is at a respectable .290 and his xFIP sits at 3.14. He pitches deep into his starts and has gone at least 101 pitches in all of his starts. Milwaukee has struggled mightily against RH pitching this year and are sitting in 26th (.274) in team wOBA against righties. Waino in the top option of the night slate for cash games. Rating = 8

Wily Peralta

Salaries: $6600 FD, $6700 DK, $5500 FA, $ Vic, $10200 DD, $86800 FF

2015: xFIP: 4.58 — Strikeout Rate: 9.6% — Walk Rate: 4.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.9%
2014: xFIP: 3.64 — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% — Walk Rate: 7.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 53.6%

St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 13)
Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Peralta has struggled a bit to start this season and is coming off getting lit up by the Reds for six earned runs. The most concerning thing to look at in his early numbers in the lack of strikeouts he has had as well as the 25 hits allowed in only three starts. He will get a chance to get back on track, but I am avoiding him until he turns it around and especially in a matchup against a Cardinals squad with some solid bats that hit RH pitching very well. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.521 — ISO: 0.348 — OBP: 0.471

Analysis: The Cardinals have some very solid lefties in their lineup, especially with the addition of Heyward. The most consistent of the bunch each day is Carpenter though. He is raking righties early in the season for a .500+ wOBA and (while I won’t quote BvP to often) he is 11/24 against Peralta with one home run.

Secondary Plays:

Matt Adams
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.171 — OBP: 0.318

Jason Heyward
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.234 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.188

Milwaukee

None

Secondary Plays:

Adam Lind
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.224 — OBP: 0.375

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