MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 16th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-05-19 18:53:37

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.

Subscribe to our daily newsletter and lineup alerts for the most up-to-date DFS MLB news.

Atlanta at Miami – 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta					Miami
			Alex Wood					Mat Latos
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA (-128)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.279	0.637	0.284	17.8%	SP vs. Left	0.364	0.898	0.392	11.70%
SP vs. Right	0.319	0.826	0.366	18.0%	SP vs. Right	0.213	0.662	0.296	23.60%
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Wood

Salaries: $7600 FD, $8100 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.84 — Strikeout Rate: 17.9% — Walk Rate: 8.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.19 — Strikeout Rate: 24.5% — Walk Rate: 6.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.9%

Miami Marlins vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.336 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 23.9% (Rank: 6)

Analysis: Wood has been a decent option on the mound so far this year. He has a 4.28 ERA with a solid 3.84 xFIP to back it up. He has, however, allowed three or more earned runs in five of his seven starts. He has a tough matchup against the Marlins who have hit left-handed pitching very well (.336 team wOBA), but also are a prime target for strikeouts (23.9% rate). Wood makes a decent second option on the afternoon slate. Rating = 5.5

Mat Latos

Salaries: $6900 FD, $7700 DK, $5900 FA, $ Vic, $12250 DD, $85900 FF

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.29 — Strikeout Rate: 18.8% — Walk Rate: 9.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.0%
2014: xFIP: 3.99 — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% — Walk Rate: 6.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 37.7%

Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 15.4% (Rank: 30)

Analysis: Latos’ ERA has been inflated by his first start of the season when he allowed seven earned runs and did not make it through the first inning. Since then, he has not allowed more than three earned runs and is coming off his best start of the season (seven innings, one earned run against the Giants). He has an average matchup against the Braves this afternoon, but his value takes a bit of a hit as the Braves strikeout at a very low 15.4%. Latos is a small favorite this afternoon in a game with a total of 7. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.223 — OBP: 0.396

Analysis: Freeman is having another great season for the Braves. He is coming off a streak of nine straight games with hits and during that span he had a total of 17 hits, including seven extra base hits. He has a great matchup against Latos who has allowed a wOBA of .392 to lefties this year.

Secondary Plays:

A.J. Pierzynski
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.185 — OBP: 0.352

Nick Markakis
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.055 — OBP: 0.422

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.318

Analysis: Stanton versus a non-elite, left-handed pitcher is a recipe for success in daily fantasy. In 2014, Stanton had a wOBA of .453 with an ISO of .287 against lefties. He is a premium target in the outfield for the afternoon slate against Wood, who has allowed a wOBA of .366 against right-handed batters.

Secondary Plays:

Martin Prado
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.454 — ISO: 0.217 — OBP: 0.440

Marcell Ozuna
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.176 — OBP: 0.350

Tampa Bay at Minnesota – 2:10 PM EST

Tampa Bay					Minnesota
			Alex Colome					Trevor May
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIN (-105)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.263	0.835	0.357	25.6%	SP vs. Left	0.333	0.818	0.356	17.40%
SP vs. Right	0.286	0.730	0.310	21.4%	SP vs. Right	0.250	0.635	0.281	18.60%
Batter Splits	TB BvP		TB vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Colome

Salaries: $6400 FD, $6000 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.65 — Strikeout Rate: 23.9% — Walk Rate: 1.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.0%
2014: xFIP: 4.87 — Strikeout Rate: 13.4% — Walk Rate: 7.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 37.8%

Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 3)

Analysis: Alex Colome is coming off a very rough start where he was lit up for eight earned runs in six innings. Prior to this outing, he had been decent in his first two starts, allowing a total of two earned runs in ten innings pitched. He will look to bounce back in a great matchup against the Twins, who are in the bottom of the league in wOBA against righties and strikeout at a very high rate. He is a risk, but one that could pay off in tournament play as he does have a high strikeout rate of 23.9% and is facing a Twins squad that strikes out a bunch (24%). Rating = 4.5

Trevor May

Salaries: $6200 FD, $5400 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.17 — Strikeout Rate: 17.8% — Walk Rate: 5.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 37.9%
2014: xFIP: 4.38 — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% — Walk Rate: 10.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 35.7%

Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 7)

Analysis: Just when people started to think May was improving as he allowed two or less earned runs in four straight starts; he was hit hard for six earned runs in only four innings pitched in his last start against the Indians. May is not someone I want to target, regardless of the matchup and that should continue today even in a decent matchup against the Rays. Rating = 3.5

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Kevin Kiermaier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.227 — OBP: 0.284

Analysis: Here is to hoping that Kiermaier is hitting at the top of the order again today. If he is, he makes a great play at a cheap price and a guy who can hit below-average righties very well. May is allowing lefties a wOBA of .356 this year and this Rays squad should be able to put a number of runs on the board today

Secondary Plays:

Evan Longoria
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.181 — OBP: 0.324

David DeJesus
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.353— ISO: 0.115 — OBP: 0.339

James Loney
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.284— ISO: 0.109 — OBP: 0.293

Minnesota

Brian Dozier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.184 — OBP: 0.313

Analysis: Usually we think of Dozier as a play against left-handed bats, but has been hitting right-handed pitching very well this year. He has a wOBA of .320 with an ISO of .184 against righties on the season. He is swinging a hot bat as well, with nine hits in his last six games, including five extra base hits.

Secondary Plays:

Joe Mauer
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.258 — ISO: 0.052 — OBP: 0.302

Trevor Plouffe
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.045 — OBP: 0.346

Detroit at St. Louis – 2:15 PM EST

Detroit					St. Louis
			David Price					Tyler Lyons
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-130)					8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.296	0.666	0.300	8.8%	SP vs. Left	0.500	1.350	0.570	20.00%
SP vs. Right	0.238	0.666	0.287	20.3%	SP vs. Right	0.250	0.709	0.306	29.00%
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs L		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price

Salaries: $10900 FD, $10000 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.10 — Strikeout Rate: 16.9% — Walk Rate: 5.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 37.4%
2014: xFIP: 2.76 — Strikeout Rate: 26.9% — Walk Rate: 3.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.2%

St. Louis Cardinals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 11)

Analysis: Price is coming off a hamstring injury, but is said to be ready to go for this start. The hamstring could possibly be the reason for the 13 hits and four earned runs allowed in his last start. He has now had two terrible outings this year and will look to put them behind him against the Cardinals today. His numbers are a bit down in strikeout rate, xFIP and his walk rate is slightly up from a great 2014, but he has still shown flashes of brilliance this year as well. The price might be too high to pay for a bit of risk, but Price should be in line for a win this afternoon and makes a solid play. Rating = 8

Tyler Lyons

Salaries: $5900 FD, $5600 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.45 — Strikeout Rate: 27.9% — Walk Rate: 7.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.65 — Strikeout Rate: 27.7% — Walk Rate: 6.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.3%

Detroit Tigers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.348 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 8)

Analysis: Lyons has not made it into the sixth inning in either of his two starts so far this year. He has allowed five earned runs in 9.1 innings pitched, but does have a big-time strikeout rate of 27.9%. The matchup is far too difficult against the Tigers and their big time right-handed bats to trust him today. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.447 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.486

Analysis: Miggy against a lefty is always a top matchup to target. He has a ridiculous .447 wOBA against lefties on the season and Lyons has shown that he will give up a number of hits. Miggy should be able to feast here and makes a solid option.

Secondary Plays:

Victor Martinez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.491 — ISO: 0.192 — OBP: 0.516

Ian Kinsler
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.249 — ISO: 0.054 — OBP: 0.275

J.D. Martinez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.294 — ISO: 0.103 — OBP: 0.343

St. Louis

None

Secondary Plays:

Matt Holliday
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.423 — ISO: 0.179 — OBP: 0.500

Jhonny Peralta
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.288 — ISO: 0.226 — OBP: 0.242

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 4:05 PM EST

Pittsburgh					Chicago Cubs
			Gerrit Cole					Jon Lester
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (-119)					9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.242	0.557	0.256	26.0%	SP vs. Left	0.349	0.913	0.395	24.40%
SP vs. Right	0.213	0.603	0.269	25.7%	SP vs. Right	0.234	0.660	0.293	21.50%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Editor’s Note: The line for this game has fluctuated heavily this morning. It is currently at 7.5 as of 10:53 Eastern Time, which brings the pitchers into play more, and limits the upside of the batters.

Pitcher Grind Down

Gerrit Cole

Salaries: $9300 FD, $9400 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.92 — Strikeout Rate: 25.9% — Walk Rate: 6.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 55.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.25 — Strikeout Rate: 24.2% — Walk Rate: 7.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.2%

Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 25.7% (Rank: 1)

Analysis: This game is setting up to be one of the better pitching duels of the day. Cole has started off very strong this year with a xFIP of under three and a strikeout rate at an elite status of 25.9%. He has a great matchup against the Cubs who strike out at the highest rate in the league against right-handed pitchers. The win may be tough to get as Lester is on the mound against him, but Cole makes a great play, especially on sites that reward strikeouts in a big way as the Cubs have the highest rate in the league against righties (25.7%). Edit – With the wind blowing out, I have changed my rating on Cole. Rating = 4.5

Jon Lester

Salaries: $9100 FD, $9100 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.41 — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% — Walk Rate: 6.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.4%
2014: xFIP: 3.10 — Strikeout Rate: 24.9% — Walk Rate: 5.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.4%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.269 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 29.5% (Rank: 1)

Analysis: After those first two starts to the season, Cubs fans were extremely worried about their big, off-season signing. Lester has settled in a bit as he has dropped his ERA about three runs over his last five starts. He is walking too many batters at the moment, but the strikeouts are still there and the matchup is perfect this afternoon, as the Pirates have really struggled offensively this year and have the highest strikeout rate against lefties in the league by far (29.5%). I like Lester a little more since he is slightly cheaper at the big sites, but both of these guys have similar matchups and both should be in for a big game. Edit – With the news that the wind is blowing out, I have changed the rating on Lester as it will be tough to keep the ball in the park now. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Starling Marte
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.616 — ISO: 0.667 — OBP: 0.421

Analysis: The matchup is tough, but with the wind blowing out now, a few Pirates are in play. Marte has crushed lefties in a small sample size this year and should be hitting in the fourth or fifth spot this afternoon.

Secondary Plays:

Andrew McCutchen
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.059 — OBP: 0.350

Neil Walker
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.226 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.286

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.428 — ISO: 0.281 — OBP: 0.429

Analysis: With the wind blowing out now, I have added a number of Cubs into play this afternoon. The wind makes an incredible difference and really bumps down even the best pitchers. The matchup against Cole is tough, but even a normal fly ball can get out when 10+ mile per hour winds are blowing in Chicago.

Secondary Plays:

Kris Bryant
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.192 — OBP: 0.418

Miguel Montero
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.174 — OBP: 0.430

Jorge Soler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.161 — OBP: 0.333

Arizona at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM EST

Arizona					Philadelphia
			Archie Bradley					Jerome Williams
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ARI (-119)					8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.132	0.456	0.236	23.4%	SP vs. Left	0.351	0.894	0.393	8.10%
SP vs. Right	0.148	0.418	0.200	10.0%	SP vs. Right	0.288	0.831	0.349	17.40%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Archie Bradley

Salaries: $7300 FD, $6600 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.67 — Strikeout Rate: 18.2% — Walk Rate: 14.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 60.0%

Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.262 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 18)

Analysis: Prior to getting hit in the face with that scary line drive, Bradley was rolling along in his first few starts of his career. He had not allowed more than two earned runs, yet, was walking batters at a high rate, which could eventually come back to haunt him. Coming back from an injury such as his, it is hard to say how Bradley will react. He does have the best matchup on the board against the Phillies who are last in the league in wOBA against righties. This makes Bradley a decent tournament play tonight. Rating = 6

Jerome Williams

Salaries: $5600 FD, $4200 DK, $5100 FA, $ Vic, $8500 DD, $70000 FF

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.41 — Strikeout Rate: 14.0% — Walk Rate: 5.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 38.8%
2014: xFIP: 4.09 — Strikeout Rate: 16.5% — Walk Rate: 7.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.6%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 19)

Analysis: Williams is never a guy we want to target in DFS. He allows way too many base runners, has a low strikeout rate, and plays for a team with one of the worst offenses in the league. Avoid him tonight. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

David Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.275 — OBP: 0.367

Analysis: Peralta has been hitting all over the place in the lineup, but is a great play if he is hitting in the top five spots tonight. He has a wOBA of .401 against righties and has a great matchup against Williams, who is allowing lefties a wOBA of .393 on the season. This Diamondbacks squad is going to put up some runs tonight and Peralta would be in a great spot depending on where he is batting in the lineup.

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.441 — ISO: 0.264 — OBP: 0.445

Ender Inciarte
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.170 — OBP: 0.326

Philadelphia

None

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Howard
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.293 — OBP: 0.300

Chase Utley
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.185 — ISO: 0.090 — OBP: 0.209

Jump to Page 1 2 3