MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 16 - Page Two

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-05-16 15:14:22

LA Angels at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST

LA Angels					Baltimore
			Matt Shoemaker					Ubaldo Jimenez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (-113)					9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.261	0.932	0.394	0.197	SP vs. Left	0.184	0.613	0.271	0.222
SP vs. Right	0.304	0.928	0.394	0.276	SP vs. Right	0.188	0.519	0.242	0.26
Batter Splits	ANA BvP		ANA vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Shoemaker

Salaries: $8500 FD, $6900 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.09 — Strikeout Rate: 23.1% — Walk Rate: 5.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 25.8%
2014: xFIP: 3.28 — Strikeout Rate: 22.8% — Walk Rate: 4.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.2%

Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.338 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 23.5% (Rank: 4)

Analysis: A lot of people have been expecting a lot more out of Shoemaker than we have seen this year. He has an ERA of over six and has allowed at least three earned runs in all of his starts this year. He is coming off a terrible performance where he allowed six earned runs and only lasted three innings. The big problem for Shoemaker has been the long ball as he has allowed ten so far this year. The matchup against the Orioles is way too tough to take a chance on Shoemaker tonight. Rating = 4.5

Ubaldo Jimenez

Salaries: $7200 FD, $6200 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.57 — Strikeout Rate: 24.4% — Walk Rate: 15.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 57.6%
2014: xFIP: 4.67 — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% — Walk Rate: 7.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.3%

Los Angeles Angels vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.270 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 15)

Analysis: Jimenez has been a very nice surprise for the Orioles this year. He holds an xFIP of 3.57 on the year with a solid strikeout rate of 24.4%. The walks are a bit troubling as he has allowed twelve over his first six starts, but he has managed a 77.9% left on base percentage. He has a great matchup on paper as the Angels have struggled against righties so far this year, but the total is set at nine with Jimenez and the Orioles being small favorites. He is a tournament target tonight. Rating = 6.5

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

None

Secondary Plays:

Mike Trout
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.402 — ISO: 0.271 — OBP: 0.389

Kole Calhoun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.138 — OBP: 0.330

Albert Pujols
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.160 — OBP: 0.330

Baltimore

Jimmy Paredes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.457 — ISO: 0.320 — OBP: 0.392

Analysis: Paredes has played well enough this year to be batting in the three hole for one of the best offenses in baseball. He does strike out a lot, but also gets on base, hits for power and drives in runs. He has a ridiculous .457 wOBA against righties on the year and has a great matchup against a struggling Shoemaker.

Secondary Plays:

Chris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343— ISO: 0.270 — OBP: 0.304

Adam Jones
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.183 — OBP: 0.368

Alejandro De Aza
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.197 — OBP: 0.312

Toronto at Houston – 7:10 PM EST

Toronto					Houston
			Marco Estrada					Scott Feldman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU (-150)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.275	0.743	0.323	0.268	SP vs. Left	0.272	0.716	0.312	0.143
SP vs. Right	0.162	0.673	0.304	0.159	SP vs. Right	0.329	0.872	0.378	0.122
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada

Salaries: $6700 FD, $5100 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.19— Strikeout Rate: 21.2% — Walk Rate: 8.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.7%
2014: xFIP: 4.19 — Strikeout Rate: 20.4% — Walk Rate: 7.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 32.4%

Houston Astros vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 25.3% (Rank: 2)

Analysis: Estrada has been getting more and more of a leash after his first two starts. He has not pitched very well in those two starts as he has allowed three home runs and seven earned runs. He now has to pitch against an average Houston offense in a game with a big total of nine. The strikeouts should be there for Estrada (21.2%), but getting enough to make value with the few earned runs he should allow tonight may be difficult. There are much better options on the slate. Rating = 4.5

Scott Feldman

Salaries: $6600 FD, $4900 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.64 — Strikeout Rate: 13.4% — Walk Rate: 4.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 52.2%
2014: xFIP: 4.19 — Strikeout Rate: 14.0% — Walk Rate: 6.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.9%

Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 12)

Analysis: Feldman is not someone to target for daily fantasy. He has a low strikeout rate, gives up a number of runs and struggles to keep batters of the base paths. He has a decent matchup against the Brewers today, but there are still some big bats that should come around eventually for this Milwaukee squad. This game should be decently high scoring and the pitchers should both be avoided. Rating = 3.5

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Jose Bautista
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.262 — OBP: 0.381

Analysis: Joey Bats has not hit for a great average this year, but does still does have six home runs with 19 runs batted in on the season. The opportunity should be there tonight against Feldman, who has allowed a wOBA of .378 to righties.

Secondary Plays:

Devon Travis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.190 — OBP: 0.295

Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.219 — OBP: 0.351

Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.208 — OBP: 0.351

Houston

Luis Valbuena
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: .275 — OBP: 0.307

Analysis: Valbuena has been solid this year for the Astros and has been a great pickup for the team. He is batting in the two and three hole for the most part of the year against right-handed pitching and has come through with nine home runs on the year. He is not going to hit for a high average, but he does have two home runs in the last three games and has a decent matchup against Estrada tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Colby Rasmus
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.291 — OBP: 0.286

Jose Altuve
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.315

Milwaukee at NY Mets – 7:10 PM EST

Milwaukee					NY Mets
			Matt Garza					Jacob deGrom
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM (-145)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.211	0.739	0.328	0.159	SP vs. Left	0.337	0.881	0.385	0.194
SP vs. Right	0.273	0.742	0.329	0.198	SP vs. Right	0.177	0.546	0.235	0.221
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Garza

Salaries: $7300 FD, $7700 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.21 — Strikeout Rate: 17.9% — Walk Rate: 10.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.9%
2014: xFIP: 3.88 — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% — Walk Rate: 7.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.3%

New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.280 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 21)

Analysis: Garza is actually pitching very well recently. He has an overall 4.04 ERA on the season and an xFIP of 4.21. His strikeout rate is not terrible at 17.9% and he has avoided getting hit hard in his last four starts. He has a great matchup against the Mets offense today who are 28th in wOBA against righties, but getting the win will be difficult with deGrom on the hill against him. Garza makes a solid tournament play as I think he should be low owned tonight. Rating = 6.5

Jacob deGrom

Salaries: $9100 FD, $8900 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.81 — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% — Walk Rate: 6.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.0%
2014: xFIP: 3.03 — Strikeout Rate: 25.5% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.4%

Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 5)

Analysis: deGrom has had two rough starts this year, with one bad start against the Yankees and the most recent start against the Cubs. Ballpark factors had a lot to do with these two starts and his advanced statistics still show an above average starter taking the mound tonight against a Brewers squad that is still striking out at a high rate and struggling overall offensively. With a high strikeout rate that deGrom holds (20.7%), he should be looked at as one of the top options for the night slate. Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

None

Secondary Plays:

Adam Lind
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.427 — ISO: 0.283— OBP: 0.413

Ryan Braun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.209 — OBP: 0.327

NY Mets

Lucas Duda
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.140— OBP: 0.347

Analysis: Prior to going 0-4 last night, Duda reached base safely in five games and had eight hits, including three extra-base hits during that span. He has hit right-handed pitching well and has a solid matchup against Garza, who has allowed a wOBA of .327 against lefties this year.

Secondary Plays:

Daniel Murphy
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.324

Curtis Granderson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.152 — OBP: 0.398

NY Yankees at Kansas City – 7:10 PM EST

NY Yankees					Kansas City
			CC Sabathia					Danny Duffy
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (-126)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.148	0.407	0.176	0.259	SP vs. Left	0.303	0.718	0.315	0.147
SP vs. Right	0.322	0.914	0.389	0.19	SP vs. Right	0.311	0.892	0.391	0.185
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L		Batter Splits	KC BvP		KC vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

CC Sabathia

Salaries: $7200 FD, $7900 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.75 — Strikeout Rate: 23.0% — Walk Rate: 5.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.5%
2014: xFIP: 3.11 — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% — Walk Rate: 4.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.3%

Kansas City Royals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.356 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 12.2% (Rank: 1)

Analysis: Sabathia is coming off his first win of the season, but that is not to say he is now pitching well. The nine strikeouts were great and he has kept his strikeout rate up throughout this year (23%). Yet, he is allowing a ton of home runs (8) and far too many base runners (at least six hits in all his starts). He now has to face a Royals offense that continues to be one of the best offenses in baseball and Sabathia should be avoided in this matchup. Rating = 5.5

Danny Duffy

Salaries: $7000 FD, $6000 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.45 — Strikeout Rate: 17.7% — Walk Rate: 9.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.6%
2014: xFIP: 4.42 — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% — Walk Rate: 8.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 35.8%

New York Yankees vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 19.1% (Rank: 20)

Analysis: Danny Duffy is struggling mightily lately. He has only pitched 4.2 innings in his last two starts and has allowed 10 earned runs over that span. He has a low strikeout rate (17.7%) and a high walk rate (9.8%). Something may be wrong with Duffy, and I will be avoiding him until we see a bounce back. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Alex Rodriguez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.468 — ISO: 0.351 — OBP: 0.425

Analysis: Rodriguez continues to play well this year and has not tailed off like many of us though he would after his hot start. He has a wOBA of .468 against lefties this year and has reached base safely in his last ten starts. A-Rod is back and has a great matchup against Duffy, who has allowed a wOBA of .391 to right-handed bats.

Secondary Plays:

Jacoby Ellsbury
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.024— OBP: 0.417

Brett Gardner
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.206— OBP: 0.368

Chris Young
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.600 — ISO: 0.500— OBP: 0.541

Kansas City

Lorenzo Cain
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.462 — ISO: 0.229 — OBP: 0.463

Analysis: Cain is coming off a three hit performance last night and is in a good spot to carry that momentum over into today’s matchup. Cain is a big part of why this Royals’ offense has been hot against lefties as he has crushed them for a wOBA of .462 this year. Sabathia has been susceptible to the long ball and Cain could take advantage tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Mike Moustakas
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.175 — OBP: 0.381

Eric Hosmer
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.164— OBP: 0.362

San Francisco at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM EST

San Francisco					Cincinnati
			Ryan Vogelsong					Mike Leake
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-128)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.321	1.164	0.488	0.153	SP vs. Left	0.219	0.659	0.286	0.157
SP vs. Right	0.22	0.639	0.282	0.189	SP vs. Right	0.174	0.507	0.213	0.13
Batter Splits	SF BvP		SF vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ryan Vogelsong

Salaries: $6600 FD, $5400 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.63 — Strikeout Rate: 17.5% — Walk Rate: 8.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.7%
2015: xFIP: 3.96 — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% — Walk Rate: 11.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 38.4%

Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 11)

Analysis: Vogelsong is a hit or miss type of pitcher. He has allowed two or less earned runs in four starts, while giving up four or more in his other three starts. You don’t know exactly what you are going to get, but his xFIP is high at 4.63, and his strikeout rate is nothing spectacular. He has to face some tough lefties tonight and Vogelsong could struggle in this matchup. Rating = 4.5

Mike Leake

Salaries: $7300 FD, $7400 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.89 — Strikeout Rate: 14.4% — Walk Rate: 6.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 53.9%
2014: xFIP: 3.49 — Strikeout Rate: 18.2% — Walk Rate: 5.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 53.4%

San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 26)

Analysis: Mike Leake has pitched very well recently. He has allowed only one earned run in his last 22 innings pitched this year and it was a solo shot. He has a solid xFIP of 3.89 and an average walk rate of 6.2%. He does not have a huge strikeout rate, but he could make a great second starter tonight, as he should pitch well and deep into this game tonight against an average Giants offense. Rating = 6.5

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

None

Secondary Plays:

Brandon Belt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.127 — OBP: 0.389

Angel Pagan
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.116 — OBP: 0.347

Cincinnati

Joey Votto
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.431 — ISO: 0.301 — OBP: 0.414

Analysis: Votto has a great matchup tonight against Vogelsong and is one of the top first basemen on the slate. He hits righties at a high clip and Vogelsong has allowed a wOBA of .488 to lefties this year.

Secondary Plays:

Billy Hamilton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.238 — ISO: 0.076 — OBP: 0.257

Jay Bruce
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.255 — ISO: 0.145 — OBP: 0.276

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