MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 23th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Texas at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM EST
| Texas | NY Yankees | ||||||||
 | Nick Martinez |  | CC Sabathia | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYY (-159) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.262 | 0.779 | 0.344 | 12.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.129 | 0.427 | 0.196 | 25.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.741 | 0.326 | 12.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.321 | 0.905 | 0.390 | 20.60% |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs L | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Nick Martinez
Salaries: $6600 FD, $5400 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.93 — Strikeout Rate: 12.3% — Walk Rate: 7.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.0%
2014: xFIP: 5.24 — Strikeout Rate: 12.6% — Walk Rate: 9.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 32.9%
New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 16)
Analysis: Nick Martinez is 3-0, with a pretty fantastic 1.88 ERA. Yet, looking further, he has a 4.93 xFIP, and he is clearly due for some major regression. His low strikeout rate (12.3%), combined with the fact that he has not really shown us anything to deserve his solid start, means you can continue to avoid Martinez outside of tournament play. Rating = 4
CC Sabathia
Salaries: $7200 FD, $8400 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.60 — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% — Walk Rate: 4.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.8%
2014: xFIP: 3.11 — Strikeout Rate: 23.0% — Walk Rate: 4.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.3%
Texas Rangers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.339 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 16)
Analysis: Sabathia is actually now coming off back-to-back wins, including a quality performance against the Royals in his last start. He has still been susceptible to the long ball this year (1.36 HR/9), which makes him a risky daily fantasy start. His strikeouts have been there, but he has a tough matchup against the Rangers who actually rank fifth in wOBA against left-handed pitching. There are a number of better plays in the afternoon slate, but Sabathia is a tournament play. Rating = 5.5
Batter Grind Down
Texas
Adrian Beltre
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.277 — OBP: 0.353
Analysis: Beltre has not been the same player overall that we have come to expect. Yet, he has continued to hit lefties well for a .392 wOBA and three of his five home runs. He has a great matchup against Sabathia this afternoon who has really struggled to get lefties out (.379 wOBA allowed).
Secondary Plays:
Robinson Chirinos
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.493 — ISO: 0.417 — OBP: 0.429
Kyle Blanks
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.558 — ISO: 0.579 — OBP: 0.368
NY Yankees
Mark Teixiera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.408 — ISO: 0.366 — OBP: 0.349
Analysis: Teixiera is crushing right-handed pitching for a wOBA of .408 on the year. He has his two home runs in his last three games and has a great matchup against Martinez who allowed a .366 wOBA to lefties in 2014.
Secondary Plays:
Brett Gardner
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.120 — OBP: 0.414
Alex Rodriguez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.319 — OBP: 0.349
Seattle at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST
| Seattle | Toronto | ||||||||
 | James Paxton |  | Mark Buehrle | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-113) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.280 | 0.708 | 0.327 | 23.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.280 | 0.773 | 0.339 | 13.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.211 | 0.604 | 0.269 | 18.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.293 | 0.770 | 0.337 | 13.20% |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs L | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
James Paxton
Salaries: $7300 FD, $7200 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.30 — Strikeout Rate: 18.1% — Walk Rate: 8.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.54 — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% — Walk Rate: 9.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 54.8%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.375 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 26)
Analysis: Paxton has been pitching well recently. Over his last five starts, Paxton has allowed only five earned runs over a 32.2 inning run. With that said, his xFIP of 4.30 shows a bit of regression is in order and he does have to pitch in a top hitters park in Rogers Centre against a team that is ranked number one in the league in wOBA against left handed pitchers. This game features the highest total other than the Coors game and Paxton makes a tough play. Rating = 4.5
Mark Buehrle
Salaries: $7500 FD, $6300 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.35 — Strikeout Rate: 11.1% — Walk Rate: 5.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.7%
2014: xFIP: 4.09 — Strikeout Rate: 13.9% — Walk Rate: 5.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.7%
Seattle Mariners vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.334 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 25)
Analysis: Mark Buehrle comes into this game with an ERA of 5+, a close to career low strikeout rate of 11.1%. He has also struggled with home runs, allowing a 1.53 HR/9. These numbers are enough to make him an easy avoid this afternoon. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Nelson Cruz
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.831 — ISO: 0.846 — OBP: 0.656
Analysis: This one is pretty simple. Cruz is absolutely crushing all left-handed pitching this year. His numbers are insane with the small sample size and he makes for a top outfield option in the afternoon slate.
Secondary Plays:
Rickie Weeks
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.530 — ISO: 0.333 — OBP: 0.472
Robinson Cano
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.223 — ISO: 0.093 — OBP: 0.209
Toronto
Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.382
Analysis: Edwin hits his home runs in bunches and is one of the streakiest hitters in the league. He has hit home runs in two straight games now and has another prime matchup against the lefty Paxton. All the power righties are in play from this lineup, but Edwin may be my favorite of the bunch.
Secondary Plays:
Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.530 — ISO: 0.333 — OBP: 0.472
Jose Bautista
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.217 — OBP: 0.353
Chris Colabello
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.483 — ISO: 0.235 — OBP: 0.474
Russell Martin
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.495 — ISO: 0.241 — OBP: 0.472
NY Mets at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM EST
| NY Mets | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
 | Matt Harvey |  | A.J. Burnett | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-106) | 6.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.186 | 0.614 | 0.272 | 28.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.739 | 0.333 | 18.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.545 | 0.239 | 23.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.699 | 0.310 | 22.50% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Matt Harvey
Salaries: $10800 FD, $11500 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.97 — Strikeout Rate: 26.4% — Walk Rate: 3.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.3%
2014: xFIP: 2.63 — Strikeout Rate: 27.7% — Walk Rate: 4.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.7%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 17)
Analysis: Harvey is always a top option anytime he takes the mound. He has a great xFIP of 2.97 on the season and elite strikeout numbers at 26.4%. He has a great matchup as well today against a Pirates offense that has struggled this year and has a surprisingly low sub .300 team wOBA against right-handed pitching. This game has a total of six and should be a pitching duel this afternoon. Harvey is ranked up there with the other top guys of Sale and Kluber this afternoon. He does have the lowest chance of a win this afternoon, but should have a big game. Rating = 8.5
A.J. Burnett
Salaries: $8800 FD, $8900 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.55 — Strikeout Rate: 21.2% — Walk Rate: 8.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 52.1%
2014: xFIP: 3.95 — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% — Walk Rate: 10.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.9%
New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.280 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 19)
Analysis: Burnett has been fantastic for the Pirates this year. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in all eight of his starts so far. He has been solid at home this season and last and now has a great matchup against the Mets who are ranked 29th in the league in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Burnett is a small favorite in this one and makes a good contrarian play as most will be on Harvey in this matchup. Rating = 7.5
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
None
Secondary Plays:
None
Pittsburgh
None
Secondary Plays:
None
Philadelphia at Washington – 4:05 PM EST
| Philadelphia | Washington | ||||||||
 | Cole Hamels |  | Stephen Strasburg | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-155) | |||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.196 | 0.602 | 0.281 | 20.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.665 | 0.294 | 23.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.662 | 0.291 | 25.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.727 | 0.319 | 29.60% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Cole Hamels
Salaries: $9700 FD, $11000 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.55 — Strikeout Rate: 25.6% — Walk Rate: 9.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.0%
2014: xFIP: 3.21 — Strikeout Rate: 23.9% — Walk Rate: 7.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.4%
Washington Nationals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.328 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 22.1% (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Hamels has been pitching very well since being lit up for six runs to the Marlins. In his last three games, he has allowed four total earned runs and has earned three straight victories. He has walked a lot of batters this season (23 in nine starts), but still has big time strikeout potential (25.6%). Playing for the Phillies means wins are a bit tough, but Hamels makes a great tournament play this afternoon. Rating = 7
Stephen Strasburg
Salaries: $8700 FD, $9500 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.63 — Strikeout Rate: 21.9% — Walk Rate: 6.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.9%
2014: xFIP: 2.56 — Strikeout Rate: 27.9% — Walk Rate: 5.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.9%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.277 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 24)
Analysis: Strasburg is clearly going through some big time issues. At this time, word is he doesn’t appear to be hurt, but he continues to give up a ton of base runners in each of his starts. His xFIP of 3.63 does show some positives to the situation and he does have huge upside against a Phillies offense that is ranked 29th in the league in wOBA against right-handed pitching. He is a tournament play only do to potential and the fact that he should be low owned, but Vegas does have a lot of trust in him today. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
None
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Howard
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.292 — OBP: 0.314
Freddy Galvis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.053 — OBP: 0.336
Washington
None
Secondary Plays:
Ian Desmond
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.219 — ISO: 0.100 — OBP: 0.219
Bryce Harper
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.414 — ISO: 0.194 — OBP: 0.458
Houston at Detroit – 4:08 PM EST
| Houston | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Lance McCullers |  | Kyle Lobstein | ||||||
| Right | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| DET (-119) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.219 | 0.586 | 0.261 | 20.20% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.277 | 0.752 | 0.331 | 10.00% | ||||
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs L | Batter Splits | DET vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Lance McCullers
Salaries: $4600 FD, $5300 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.80 — Strikeout Rate: 25.0% — Walk Rate: 15.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 58.3%
Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 19.1% (Rank: 22)
Analysis: McCullers was decent in his first start, allowing just one earned run and striking out five batters. He did possess some high strikeout numbers in the minors and has a bit up upside for a cheap tag today. He is a tournament punt play only against what will be a very tough offense to shut down in the Tigers. Rating = 4.5
Kyle Lobstein
Salaries: $6300 FD, $4800 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.34 — Strikeout Rate: 10.6% — Walk Rate: 8.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 56.3%
2014: xFIP: 4.27 — Strikeout Rate: 16.5% — Walk Rate: 7.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.1%
Houston Astros vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 23.8% (Rank: 6)
Analysis: Lobstein is not a player that you should find yourself targeting in daily fantasy. He has a low strikeout rate (10.6%) and has allowed at least seven base runners in each of his starts this year. You can safely avoid him this afternoon. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Houston
Jose Altuve
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.428— ISO: 0.125 — OBP: 0.491
Analysis: Altuve is always in play against left-handed pitching. Altuve has a .428 wOBA against lefties on the season and has a great matchup against Lobstein who has really struggled at getting righties out (.363 wOBA).
Secondary Plays:
George Springer
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.263 — OBP: 0.408
Evan Gattis
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.217 — ISO: 0.200 — OBP: 0.167
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.430 — ISO: 0.240 — OBP: 0.435
Analysis: Miggy against a young pitcher is usually an unfair matchup. That should be true again today, as McCullers will have to pitch against a red hot Cabrera who has had 16 hits in his last ten games, including four home runs.
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Gose
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.368
J.D. Martinez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.326