MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 23 - Page Three

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-05-23 15:54:20

Baltimore at Miami – 7:15 PM EST

Baltimore					Miami
			Mike Wright					Dan Haren
			Right					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA (-106)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.273	0.546	0.242	0.182	SP vs. Left	0.233	0.69	0.3	0.216
SP vs. Right	0.071	0.214	0.091	0.286	SP vs. Right	0.26	0.74	0.321	0.149
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Wright

Salaries: $7000 FD, $6100 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.62 — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% — Walk Rate: 0.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.1%

Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 8)

Analysis: Wright pitched fantastic in his first start of his career. Against a decent Angels squad, Wright went 7.1 innings of four-hit ball with six strikeouts. Wright had some decent numbers in the minors and has a good matchup against the Marlins, who are in the bottom third of the league in wOBA and have a high strikeout rate of 21.1%. He is a risky play, but is cheap and in play. Rating = 6.5

Dan Haren

Salaries: $7800 FD, $6700 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.33 — Strikeout Rate: 17.0% — Walk Rate: 4.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 34.0%
2014: xFIP: 3.70 — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% — Walk Rate: 4.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.5%

Baltimore Orioles vs.RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 23.2% (Rank: 3)

Analysis: Haren is coming off one of his better outings of the year going eight innings against the Diamondbacks. He has average strikeout numbers, a low ground ball rate and a below average xFIP of 4.33. He is not the greatest option, but on a night slate that lacks many pitching choices, Haren makes a play as a number two starter. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Jimmy Paredes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.445 — ISO: 0.278 — OBP: 0.398

Analysis: Paredes’ emergence as a solid player for the Orioles is undeniable. He has been hitting up in the second and third spots in the order and is coming through in a big way for Baltimore. He is an on-base machine (.445 wOBA against righties) and his price continues to be playable across the industry.

Secondary Plays:

Chris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.226 — OBP: 0.319

Adam Jones
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.155— OBP: 0.353

Miami

None

Secondary Plays:

Giancarlo Stanton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.275 — OBP: 0.323

Dee Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.090 — OBP: 0.500

LA Angels at Boston – 7:15 PM EST

LA Angels					Boston
			C.J. Wilson					Steven Wright
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS (-108)					9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.197	0.575	0.264	0.222	SP vs. Left	0.253	0.698	0.31	0.188
SP vs. Right	0.261	0.729	0.325	0.183	SP vs. Right	0.277	0.729	0.323	0.214
Batter Splits	ANA BvP		ANA vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

C.J. Wilson

Salaries: $8000 FD, $7000 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.18 — Strikeout Rate: 16.6% — Walk Rate: 6.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.3%
2014: xFIP: 4.11 — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% — Walk Rate: 11.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.8%

Boston Red Sox vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.277 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 18.0% (Rank: 21)

Analysis: Wilson has pitched pretty well over the course of the season. He is coming off an understandably poor outing at Rogers Centre against the Blue Jays, but prior, he had not allowed more than two earned runs in his previous five starts. Wilson makes a decent tournament play tonight, but should be avoided in cash games due to the matchup against the Red Sox, even though they have struggled offensively this year. Rating = 6

Steven Wright

Salaries: $5400 FD, $4900 DK

2015: xFIP: 4.91 — Strikeout Rate: 13.0% — Walk Rate: 10.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 56.6%
2014: xFIP: 2.31 — Strikeout Rate: 25.6% — Walk Rate: 4.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 58.6%

Los Angeles Angels vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.272 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 15)

Analysis: Wright is not a pitcher who should be targeted in any formats. He will not pitch deeply into games, has a low strikeout rate, and allows a lot of base runners. He has a decent matchup on paper, but this Angels lineup still has some star power and could get to Wright tonight. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Mike Trout
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.273 — OBP: 0.390

Analysis: The one guy that has been leading this Angels offense has been Trout. He is unstoppable at this point and has a .405 wOBA and .273 ISO against righties. He has seven hits in his last three games and will look to continue to stay hot against Wright who allows a .400+ wOBA to righties.

Secondary Plays:

Kole Calhoun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.144 — OBP: 0.328

Albert Pujols
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.195 — OBP: 0.323

Boston

Hanley Ramirez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.458 — ISO: 0.368 — OBP: 0.409

Analysis: Make sure Hanley is in the lineup tonight after leaving last night’s game. If he is, he makes a great option as he is a lefty masher (.458 wOBA) and has a decent matchup against Wilson tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Dustin Pedroia
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.211 — OBP: 0.364

Mike Napoli
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.158— OBP: 0.326

St. Louis at Kansas City – 7:15 PM EST

St. Louis					Kansas City
			John Lackey					Edinson Volquez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KCR (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.256	0.719	0.317	0.171	SP vs. Left	0.214	0.668	0.297	0.182
SP vs. Right	0.261	0.707	0.312	0.209	SP vs. Right	0.229	0.629	0.284	0.171
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	KC BvP		KC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

John Lackey

Salaries: $8300 FD, $8800 DK, $ FA, $ Vic, $13100 DD, $111900 FF

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.97 — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% — Walk Rate: 6.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.1%
2014: xFIP: 3.48 — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% — Walk Rate: 5.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.4%

Kansas City Royals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.330 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 15.1% (Rank: 30)

Analysis: Lackey has pitched well this season for the Cardinals with a sub 4 xFIP, an average strikeout rate and an ERA of 2.96. Yet, he now has to take on a Royals squad that has made all pitchers work for each and every out this year. The matchup drops Lackey’s upside tremendously, and I will not be having any shares of him. Rating = 5

Edinson Volquez

Salaries: $8400 FD, $6100 DK, $ FA, $ Vic, $13050 DD, $ FF

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.14 — Strikeout Rate: 19.0% — Walk Rate: 8.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.5%
2014: xFIP: 4.20 — Strikeout Rate: 17.3% — Walk Rate: 8.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.4%

St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 10)

Analysis: Volquez will take the ball tonight for Duffy who has had his start pushed back. Voltrain has pitched well for the Royals this year and is coming off his best start of the season as he went seven and allowed zero earned runs to the Yankees. He has a solid strikeout rate, but the walk rate is always a concern for him. If he can keep his command under control, he should be able to continue his solid play tonight against the Cards. He makes a solid second option tonight where cheap. Rating = 6.5

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.429 — ISO: 0.271 — OBP: 0.407

Analysis: Carpenter is just too consistent to ignore when facing a non-elite right-handed pitcher. He has a .400+ wOBA on the season against righties as well as a solid .271 ISO. You will have to pay up for him, but if you can fit him in your cash lineups, he usually comes through.

Secondary Plays:

Matt Holliday
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.124 — OBP: 0.424

Kansas City

Eric Hosmer
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.434— ISO: 0.266— OBP: 0.410

Analysis: Hosmer has been at the center of this order and a main reason why they have one of the top offenses in the league this year. He has hit right-handed pitching very well on the year (.434 wOBA) and will look to continue that against Lackey today. This game does not feature a high total, but I think the Royals should be able to find a bit of success.

Secondary Plays:

Mike Moustakas
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.411 — ISO: 0.156— OBP: 0.418

Alex Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.173— OBP: 0.358

San Francisco at Colorado – 9:10 PM EST

San Francisco					Colorado
			Yusmeiro Petit					David Hale
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-120)					10
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.251	0.769	0.328	0.196	SP vs. Left	0.288	0.769	0.338	0.097
SP vs. Right	0.198	0.548	0.239	0.33	SP vs. Right	0.239	0.668	0.292	0.13
Batter Splits	SF BvP		SF vs R		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Yusmeiro Petit

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 5.15 — Strikeout Rate: 16.5% — Walk Rate: 6.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 24.3%
2014: xFIP: 2.84 — Strikeout Rate: 28.9% — Walk Rate: 4.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 35.5%

Colorado Rockies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 13)

Analysis: Petit is an extreme flyout pitcher, which should pose a huge problem in Coors tonight. He has also pitched out of the bullpen all year so will likely only go four or five innings max. Rating = 2

Salaries: $6100 FD, $6200 DK

David Hale

Pitching Stats
2014: xFIP: 4.61 — Strikeout Rate: 11.5% — Walk Rate: 10.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 56.0%

San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 17.2% (Rank: 26)

Analysis: This game features an even higher total than the first Coors game for a reason. Hale has yet to pitch in the majors this year, but had a 4.61 xFIP in 2014. His minor league numbers this year are awful as he carries a 6.93 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in Triple-A. Avoid him as well. Rating = 2

Salaries: $5900 FD

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Angel Pagan
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.101 — OBP: 0.336

Analysis: Since I wrote up Belt for the other game, I will discuss Pagan here. Pagan’s price at FD continues to be so low that he is close to a must-play for cash games. He is only $2700 and is hitting in the three-hole at Coors. Sign me up.

Secondary Plays:

All 1-6 batters are in play.

Colorado

Charlie Blackmon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.183 — OBP: 0.371

Analysis: Blackmon is batting leadoff in Coors, and has shown he can rack up the points in many different ways. He has a great matchup against both Giants pitchers today and although he is struggling a bit, he will see a lot of at bats in the double header and I expect a big day.

Secondary Plays:

All 1-6 batters are in play.

San Diego at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST

San Diego					LA Dodgers
			Ian Kennedy					Mike Bolsinger
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
								7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.248	0.758	0.331	0.230	SP vs. Left	0.299	0	0.357	0.179
SP vs. Right	0.248	0.705	0.313	0.248	SP vs. Right	0.265	0.792	0.344	0.223
Batter Splits			SD vs R		Batter Splits	LA BvP		LA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ian Kennedy

Salaries: $7500 FD, $8000 DK, $ FA, $ Vic, $9850 DD, $92200 FF

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.20 — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% — Walk Rate: 9.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.5%
2014: xFIP: 3.44 — Strikeout Rate: 24.5% — Walk Rate: 8.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.7%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.359 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 23)

Analysis: Just when we thought Kennedy was hitting his stride for the season, he goes and gets roughed up in two straight outings. His 6.75 ERA is very disappointing for him, but his xFIP of 4.20 shows that should come down soon enough. The strikeouts continue to be there for Kennedy, but he does face a tough Dodgers lineup that lit him up for eight earned runs earlier this year. He makes a risky play tonight. Rating = 5

Mike Bolsinger

Salaries: $ FD, $7100 DK, $ FA, $ Vic, $9150 DD, $ FF

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.68 — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% — Walk Rate: 8.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 57.8%
2014: xFIP: 3.31 — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% — Walk Rate: 8.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 52.4%

San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 7)

Analysis: Bolsinger has had a very solid start to his season. He has allowed only two earned runs over three starts, while striking out 14 batters in 17.1 innings. He has an average matchup against the Padres tonight who are not built to hit righties well and have a sub .300 wOBA against right-handed pitching. He makes a solid second pitcher on tonight’s slate. Rating = 6.5

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

None

Secondary Plays:

Justin Upton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.287 — OBP: 0.359

Yangervis Solarte
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.140 — OBP: 0.352

LA Dodgers

Joc Pederson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.426 — ISO: 0.358 — OBP: 0.401

Analysis: Attacking the lefty bats right now against Kennedy seems to be the way to go. He is allowing a wOBA of .479 on the season to the left-handed bats, which places guys like Gonzo and Pederson in play. Pederson has cooled off a bit from his hot start, but did bomb yesterday, which should give him confidence. He still holds a very high .358 ISO and .426 wOBA against righties and is a great outfield play tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Adrian Gonzalez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.467 — ISO: 0.307 — OBP: 0.444

Andre Ethier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.415 — ISO: 0.261 — OBP: 0.415

Chicago Cubs at Arizona – 10:10 PM EST

Chicago Cubs					Arizona
			Jake Arrieta					Rubby De La Rosa
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (-125)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.193	0.54	0.248	0.299	SP vs. Left	0.298	0.873	0.378	0.143
SP vs. Right	0.214	0.547	0.242	0.249	SP vs. Right	0.247	0.706	0.311	0.234
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta

Salaries: $9900 FD, $9500 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.66 — Strikeout Rate: 27.1% — Walk Rate: 5.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.1%
2014: xFIP: 2.73 — Strikeout Rate: 27.2% — Walk Rate: 6.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.2%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 20)

Analysis: Arrieta takes the crown as the top starter of the night slate that lacks any other options. Arrieta strikes guys out at a very high 27.1% clip, while keeping his ERA and xFIP at under three. He does have to pitch in a hitter’s park in Arizona, but should be able to make it through a Diamondbacks lineup that is pretty average as long as he can pitch around Goldy. Rating = 8

Rubby De La Rosa

Salaries: $7300 FD, $7300 DK

Pitching Stats
2014: xFIP: 3.39 — Strikeout Rate: 22.0% — Walk Rate: 5.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.7%
2014: xFIP: 4.03 — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% — Walk Rate: 7.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.0%

Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 25.8% (Rank: 1)

Analysis: Rubby has been a bit hit or miss this season. He has allowed two or less earned runs in three starts, while allowing four or more earned runs in three other starts. He has a decent matchup against the Cubs due to how much they strikeout, but they do possess a lot of power. This could be trouble for Rubby as he has allowed eight home runs already this year. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.399 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.406

Analysis: It was tough to choose between Rizzo and Bryant for the top Cubs play tonight. Bryant has been as advertised since coming into the lineup and makes a great play tonight, but the numbers are in Rizzo’s favor a bit more in this matchup. Rubby allows a wOBA of .398 to lefties as opposed to the .218 he allows to righties. I expect Rizzo to have a big game in Chase Field tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Kris Bryant
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.184 — OBP: 0.413

Dexter Fowler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.189 — OBP: 0.356

Arizona

None

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.494— ISO: 0.286 — OBP: 0.485

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