MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 30 - Page Three

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-05-30 15:24:11

Detroit at LA Angels – 10:05 PM EST

Detroit					LA Angels
			Shane Greene					Jered Weaver
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA (-131)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.293	0.797	0.352	0.154	SP vs. Left	0.255	0.733	0.323	0.189
SP vs. Right	0.215	0.601	0.272	0.259	SP vs. Right	0.22	0.622	0.277	0.16
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits	ANA BvP		ANA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Shane Greene

Salaries: $7200 FD, $6200 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.03 — Strikeout Rate: 15.8% — Walk Rate: 6.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.9%
2014: xFIP: 3.40 — Strikeout Rate: 23.5% — Walk Rate: 8.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.2%

Los Angeles Angels vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.283 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 15)

Analysis: Greene has been a decent innings eater for the Tigers, but that is all. His strikeout rate is not high enough for his lack of innings pitched to be considered in any DFS formats. He does, however, have a solid matchup against the Angels, who, other than Trout/Pujols/Calhoun, lack any offensive firepower. This puts him into tournament consideration, but with some risk attached, as well as low upside. Rating = 4.5

Jered Weaver

Salaries: $7700 FD, $7800 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.41 — Strikeout Rate: 13.4% — Walk Rate: 3.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.4%
2014: xFIP: 4.30 — Strikeout Rate: 19.0% — Walk Rate: 7.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 32.9%

Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 22)

Analysis: Weaver finally showed some strikeout potential in his last start with seven over the course of 6.2 innings. His numbers have dropped a bit this year (4.41 xFIP, 13.4% strikeout rate), but he has tried to keep the Angels in games by limiting base runners in each of his starts. Regardless, with his velocity down and strikeouts way down, it takes too much fantasy value away and adding that to the tough matchup against the Tigers, and Weaver is a very risky option tonight with low upside. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.424 — ISO: 0.245 — OBP: 0.429

Analysis: Not a whole lot has to be said about Cabrera. He is always in play regardless of the matchup, but this is setting up perfectly for his as Weaver is struggling with his velocity. If he does not find his spots perfectly, he could get lit up quickly by this Tigers’ offense, and especially by Miggy.

Secondary Plays:

Anthony Gose
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.141 — OBP: 0.385

Yoenis Cespedes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.181 — OBP: 0.350

Ian Kinsler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334— ISO: 0.090 — OBP: 0.370

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.316

Analysis: Calhoun’s switch to the cleanup spot, shows the lack of options on this Angels squad when you get passed Pujols and Trout. Calhoun has not produced any power since being moved, but should have a few RBI opportunities tonight against Greene who I expect to give up a few runs to the top of this order.

Secondary Plays:

Mike Trout
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.254 — OBP: 0.374

Matt Joyce
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.258 — ISO: 0.127 — OBP: 0.264

NY Yankees at Oakland – 10:05 PM EST

NY Yankees					Oakland
			Nathan Eovaldi					Jesse Hahn
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			OAK (-117)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.306	0.802	0.351	0.168	SP vs. Left	0.261	0.697	0.307	0.181
SP vs. Right	0.259	0.689	0.303	0.168	SP vs. Right	0.179	0.536	0.25	0.219
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Nathan Eovaldi

Salaries: $7500 FD, $6500 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.79 — Strikeout Rate: 17.5% — Walk Rate: 6.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.78 — Strikeout Rate: 16.6% — Walk Rate: 5.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.8%

Oakland A’s vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 17.3% (Rank: 27)

Analysis: Eovaldi has been decent pitching in the American League in the tough AL East. His overall 4.27 ERA is nowhere near elite status, but he does have a solid 3.79 xFIP to back it up. His K/BB rate is respectable coming into this matchup with Oakland who have been solid against righties (.324 wOBA) and lack strikeout potential (17.3%). This game features a low total (7) and a very close money line. I expect both pitchers to pitch a bit better than expected, but there is some risk attached as well. Rating = 6

Jesse Hahn

Salaries: $7500 FD, $6400 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.72 — Strikeout Rate: 16.0% — Walk Rate: 5.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.7%
2014: xFIP: 3.59 — Strikeout Rate: 22.9% — Walk Rate: 10.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.3%

New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 18)

Analysis: Hahn is coming off his best performance of the year by far as he shut down a very good Tigers squad for a complete game shutout with five strikeouts and only four hits allowed. He has a 3.72 xFIP on the year, but now has another tough matchup against the Yankees. He is a favorite in this matchup and I like him a bit more than Eovaldi. Rating = 6.5

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Brian McCann
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.266 — OBP: 0.339

Analysis: After a bit of an injury scare on Sunday, McCann has shown no ill effects from it as he has now homered in four straight games. He is one of the better catching options on the night.

Secondary Plays:

Brett Gardner
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.147 — OBP: 0.389

Mark Teixeira
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.158— OBP: 0.336

Oakland

None

Secondary Plays:

Josh Reddick
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.448 — ISO: 0.269 — OBP: 0.425

Stephen Vogt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.436 — ISO: 0.306 — OBP: 0.415

Atlanta at San Francisco – 10:05 PM EST

Atlanta					San Francisco
			Williams Perez					Tim Lincecum
			Right					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-142)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.360	0	0.405	0.185	SP vs. Left	0.226	0.676	0.303	0.161
SP vs. Right	0.25	0.614	0.293	0.333	SP vs. Right	0.263	0.8	0.351	0.227
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits			SF vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Williams Perez

Salaries: $5800 FD, $6100 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.93 — Strikeout Rate: 26.7% — Walk Rate: 10.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 52.8%

Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 16.7% (Rank: 28)

Analysis: Perez has been serviceable in his first two starts for the Braves. He has lasted six and five innings in his first two starts and has had seven strikeouts in both. It needs to be mentioned that he did not have these type of strikeout numbers in the minors and I would not expect him to continue with his 26.7% K rate. Rating = 4

Tim Lincecum

Salaries: $8100 FD, $7400 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.35 — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% — Walk Rate: 11.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.81 — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% — Walk Rate: 9.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.3%

San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 26)

Analysis: Lincecum has had a very interesting season so far for the Giants. He has allowed three or more earned runs in four starts and has allowed one or less in his other five. His command continues to be a major issue for Lincecum this year as he has walked at least three batters in six of those nine total starts. This game does feature a low total and Lincecum is a decent sized favorite. He makes a tournament play only tonight. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

None

Secondary Plays:

Freddie Freeman
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377— ISO: 0.197— OBP: 0.376

Nick Markakis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.056— OBP: 0.413

San Francisco

Brandon Belt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.415 — ISO: 0.264 — OBP: 0.393

Analysis: Belt has reached base safely in his last nine starts and over the course of that span he has been really hitting the ball well. He has five doubles and three home runs during this streak and has a great matchup against Perez who has struggled against lefties (.406 wOBA).

Secondary Plays:

Buster Posey
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.164 — OBP: 0.470

Nori Aoki
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.115 — OBP: 0.390

Joe Panik
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.144 — OBP: 0.346

Cleveland at Seattle – 10:10 PM EST

Cleveland					Seattle
			Shaun Marcum					Roenis Elias
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA (-137)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.318	0	0.483	0.240	SP vs. Left	0.220	0.66	0.298	0.255
SP vs. Right	0.133	0.579	0.227	0.303	SP vs. Right	0.255	0.737	0.327	0.190
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs L		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Shaun Marcum

Salaries: $6400 FD, $5000 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.80 — Strikeout Rate: 27.6% — Walk Rate: 10.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.7%
2014: xFIP: 4.22 — Strikeout Rate: 17.1% — Walk Rate: 6.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 34.9%

Seattle Mariners vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 22.6% (Rank: 4)

Analysis: When you see Marcum taking the mound for a start, it should be an easy avoid from here on out. After pitching in the minors in 2014, he has come back to make a few starts for the Indians this year. He was just lit up by the Rangers for seven earned runs over 2.2 innings and will try to bounce back against Seattle tonight. He should not be on anyone’s radar and should be avoided in all formats. Rating = 3.5

Roenis Elias

Salaries: $7400 FD, $7300 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.01 — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.9%
2014: xFIP: 3.95 — Strikeout Rate: 16.0% — Walk Rate: 9.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.4%

Cleveland Indians vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Looking back at Elias’ game logs shows some pretty surprising results. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in his six starts this season and has kept a very respectable 19.5% strikeout rate so far this year. He has a decent matchup against the Indians who are loaded with lefties and should continue to be without Santana who is on paternity leave. On a night that lacks options, Elias may work well as a tournament play tonight, but like many others, he has risk attached. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Ryan Raburn
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.423 — ISO: 0.254 — OBP: 0.408

Analysis: Another cheap outfielder in this game that should be used due to the splits is Raburn. Raburn is a lefty crusher and is used in the cleanup spot a lot when the Indians face a lefty. He is near minimum priced over at FanDuel and makes a great play for some salary relief.

Secondary Plays:

Michael Brantley
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.411 — ISO: 0.215 — OBP: 0.405

Seattle

Seth Smith
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.228 — OBP: 0.338

Analysis: I am putting Smith here due to the fact that he should be hitting high up in the order, is very cheap, and has been great against right-handed pitching. All of the Mariners’ lefties are in play tonight though, as Marcum has struggled against left-handed bats on the season giving up a wOBA close to .500.

Secondary Plays:

Kyle Seager
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.175 — OBP: 0.318

Robinson Cano
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.079 — OBP: 0.318

Nelson Cruz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.256 — OBP: 0.349

Brad Miller
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.219 — OBP: 0.331

Pittsburgh at San Diego – 10:10 PM EST

Pittsburgh					San Diego
			Charlie Morton					Tyson Ross
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SDP (-115)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.241	0.662	0.301	0.192	SP vs. Left	0.239	0.686	0.308	0.24
SP vs. Right	0.248	0.706	0.317	0.18	SP vs. Right	0.227	0.624	0.283	0.254
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	SD BvP		SD vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Charlie Morton

Salaries: $6900 FD, $6800 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.48 — Strikeout Rate: 11.1% — Walk Rate: 0.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 83.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.78 — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% — Walk Rate: 8.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 55.7%

San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 7)

Analysis: Morton came off the DL and had a great performance against the Marlins. Last year, Morton was solid for the Pirates with a season ending 3.78 xFIP and 18.9% strikeout rate. If he can show some more strikeout potential, he looks like one of the better cheap options of the night slate as he gets a matchup in pitcher-friendly San Diego against the Padres, whose offense is not exactly built to beat right-handed pitching as it is to beat lefties. Morton makes for a solid play tonight. Rating = 7

Tyson Ross

Salaries: $9000 FD, $9400 DK

Pitching Stats
2014: xFIP: 3.06 — Strikeout Rate: 26.6% — Walk Rate: 11.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 64.1%
2014: xFIP: 3.11 — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% — Walk Rate: 8.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 57.0%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 17)

Analysis: Ross has been great over the last two seasons. He has an xFIP of 3.06 so far this year and a great strikeout rate of 26.6%. Ross has only allowed more than four earned runs once in his ten starts this year and continues to get the advantage of a great home park to pitch in. He is a bit of a safer option than his counterpart tonight, but does come with a much more expensive price tag. Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

None

Secondary Plays:

Pedro Alvarez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369— ISO: 0.256 — OBP: 0.351

Andrew McCutchen
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355— ISO: 0.208 — OBP: 0.355

San Diego

None

Secondary Plays:

Justin Upton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.403— ISO: 0.272 — OBP: 0.376

Yangervis Solarte
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341— ISO: 0.130 — OBP: 0.351

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