MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 30th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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Toronto at Minnesota – 2:10 PM EST
| Toronto | Minnesota | ||||||||
 | Aaron Sanchez |  | Kyle Gibson | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIN (-119) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.852 | 0.375 | 15.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.255 | 0.681 | 0.305 | 9.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.135 | 0.395 | 0.191 | 19.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.675 | 0.301 | 18.10% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Aaron Sanchez
Salaries: $6700 FD, $5500 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.76 — Strikeout Rate: 14.9% — Walk Rate: 14.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 59.9%
2014: xFIP: 3.00 — Strikeout Rate: 22.3% — Walk Rate: 7.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 65.9%
Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 22.3% (Rank: 6)
Analysis: Aaron Sanchez has pitched decently to start the season, but has had issues with his strikeout rate dropping down to under 15%. This, along with his command issues (14.9% walk rate) makes him a tough pitcher to trust in any format. He does, however, have a good matchup against the Twins who hit lefties well, but are ranked 27th in the league in wOBA against right-handed pitching and strikeout at a 22.3% clip. Sanchez is a deep tournament play only with a good amount of risk attached. Rating = 4.5
Kyle Gibson
Salaries: $6500 FD, $5700 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.40 — Strikeout Rate: 11.6% — Walk Rate: 7.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 53.0%
2014: xFIP: 3.99 — Strikeout Rate: 14.1% — Walk Rate: 7.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 54.4%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 11)
Analysis: Gibson has been a very serviceable starter for the Twins this year. He has allowed two or less earned runs in six of his nine starts and has an overall 2.72 ERA. He is coming off by far his best performance of the year, an eight-inning, eight strikeout performance against the White Sox. The strikeouts were a bit out of the ordinary of what we can expect from Gibson (11.6%) and the matchup is very tough today against the Blue Jays. He is a second starter only today and a bit of a risky one at that. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.240 — OBP: 0.343
Analysis: Donaldson has been on fire over the last four games. He has nine hits, including a ridiculous five home runs and two doubles during that span. The matchup sets up nicely for the righties in the Blue Jays lineup as Gibson has allowed a wOBA of .334 to right-handed bats on the year.
Secondary Plays:
Chris Colabello
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.418 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.439
Jose Bautista
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.217 — OBP: 0.434
Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.264 — OBP: 0.479
Jose Reyes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.100 — OBP: 0.306
Minnesota
Joe Mauer
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.274 — ISO: 0.058 — OBP: 0.322
Analysis: The big problem for this Twins squad when facing righties is their lack of left-handed bats in the lineup. Mauer is still their best lefty going this year and could be looked at as a decent cash game play as he should be able to get on base a few times against Sanchez, who allows a wOBA of .433 to left-handed bats.
Secondary Plays:
Brian Dozier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.239 — OBP: 0.326
Torii Hunter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.163 — OBP: 0.330
Colorado at Philadelphia – 3:05 PM EST
| Colorado | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | Eddie Butler |  | Aaron Harang | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PHI (-104) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.359 | 0.000 | 0.463 | 8.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.275 | 0.723 | 0.321 | 16.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.278 | 0.802 | 0.352 | 9.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.663 | 0.294 | 19.90% |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Eddie Butler
Salaries: $4900 FD, $4300 DK, $4500 FA, $ Vic, $8500 DD, $70000 FF
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 5.54 — Strikeout Rate: 11.2% — Walk Rate: 13.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.7%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.269 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 16)
Analysis: Butler is now filling in for De La Rosa this afternoon and it is not much of an upgrade. He strikes out very few batters, gives up a lot of baserunners and is not in play even with a solid matchup against the Phillies. I know we saw another subpar pitcher shut down this Phillies’ offense yesterday, but I don’t see that happening again. Rating = 3
Aaron Harang
Salaries: $7900 FD, $7000 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.30 — Strikeout Rate: 17.8% — Walk Rate: 5.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 33.7%
2014: xFIP: 4.03 — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% — Walk Rate: 8.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.4%
Colorado Rockies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 20)
Analysis: Harang has been stellar for the Phillies so far this year and has a 1.93 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. Looking at his advanced stats, we see an xFIP of 4.30, which shows some regression is in order. It may not happen today as he faces a Rockies squad he shut down over six innings in his last start, but they do possess some very solid lefties and have the second ranked offense against right-handed pitching this year. With that said, I do like Harang as a second starter due to the lack of options in the afternoon slate. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
Charlie Blackmon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.207 — OBP: 0.384
Analysis: Blackmon has been struggling a bit over the last week or so, but he has the potential to score in so many ways as he can go for power, stolen bases, and score runs. He still has a wOBA close to .400 on the year against righties and is a decent play this afternoon.
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Gonzalez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.155 — OBP: 0.312
Philadelphia
Ryan Howard
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.282 — OBP: 0.300
Analysis: Butler has allowed lefties to crush him so far this year and Howard becomes a high risk, high reward play on this slate.
Secondary Plays:
Ben Revere
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.085 — OBP: 0.320
Freddy Galvis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.299 — ISO: 0.054 — OBP: 0.319
Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 4:05 PM EST
| Tampa Bay | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Erasmo Ramirez |  | Wei-Yin Chen | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BAL (-131) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.732 | 0.329 | 17.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.655 | 0.290 | 16.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.283 | 0.000 | 0.377 | 18.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.260 | 0.752 | 0.328 | 18.40% |
| Batter Splits | TB BvP | TB vs L | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Erasmo Ramirez
Salaries: $5400 FD, $4700 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.53 — Strikeout Rate: 19.0% — Walk Rate: 10.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.0%
2014: xFIP: 4.81 — Strikeout Rate: 17.8% — Walk Rate: 10.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 37.7%
Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 22.4% (Rank: 5)
Analysis: Ramirez has made just five starts so far this year and has spent the rest of his year in the bullpen. He is not someone we want to target for fantasy purposes, as he will not pitch deep into ballgames and has a 6.62 ERA over the course of this season. The matchup against the Orioles who have a team wOBA of .322 against righties makes him an easy avoid this afternoon. Rating = 3
Wei-Yin Chen
Salaries: $7400 FD, $7200 DK
Tampa Bay Rays vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.332 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 23.4% (Rank: 7)
Analysis: Chen has been decent this year as he went six of his first seven starts allowing two or less earned runs. He has struggled in his last two starts allowing eight hits and eleven hits respectively and now carries an xFIP of 4.31 into this game against the Rays. Chen has the ability to shut this offense down and makes a decent second starter. Rating = 5.5
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.461 — ISO: 0.200 — OBP: 0.500
Analysis: Anytime the Rays face a non-elite, left-handed pitcher, Longoria is in play. He has a wOBA of .461 against lefties with a solid ISO of .200. He has had solid success against Chen (8/26) and makes for a great play at third base today.
Secondary Plays:
Baltimore
Chris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.240 — OBP: 0.296
Analysis: Davis is another guy who is on a hot streak and he is a perfect example of a guy you need to ride because his home runs will come in bunches. He has hit four in his last four games to go along with seven runs batted in.
Secondary Plays:
Jimmy Paredes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.431 — ISO: 0.246 — OBP: 0.397
Adam Jones
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.342
Arizona at Milwaukee – 4:10 PM EST
| Arizona | Milwaukee | ||||||||
 | Jeremy Hellickson |  | Kyle Lohse | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIL (-129) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.755 | 0.328 | 17.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.714 | 0.314 | 16.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.287 | 0.836 | 0.365 | 17.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.694 | 0.305 | 18.60% |
| Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jeremy Hellickson
Salaries: $5900 FD, $5300 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.36 — Strikeout Rate: 16.1% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.6%
2014: xFIP: 4.13 — Strikeout Rate: 19.2% — Walk Rate: 7.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.5%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 22.7% (Rank: 3)
Analysis: Hellickson’s transition into a National League pitcher has not been as easy as he was hoping. He carries a 5.33 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP into this matchup against the Brewers. The matchup is solid as the Brewers have struggled this year, but they still have enough power bats in the lineup to make Hellboy pay for any mistakes. He is an avoid this afternoon. Rating = 4
Kyle Lohse
Salaries: $6400 FD, $6800 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.00 — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% — Walk Rate: 6.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.1%
2014: xFIP: 4.05 — Strikeout Rate: 17.3% — Walk Rate: 5.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.1%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 16)
Analysis: Just when we thought Lohse was bouncing back from his horrid start to the season, he goes and gives up five earned runs in 5.1 innings to the Giants. Lohse should be on no DFS player’s radar this afternoon as he has allowed eleven home runs in ten starts to go along with his 38 runs allowed during that span. Avoid him until he can string a few good starts together. Rating = 3.5
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
David Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.220 — OBP: 0.402
Analysis: Hitting in the cleanup spot really adds some major fantasy potential to Peralta. He gets to hit right behind Goldschmidt in this lineup and he has a perfect matchup against Lohse who has been home run prone this year. I like these Diamondbacks bats a lot this afternoon, especially the 1-4 guys.
Secondary Plays:
Paul Goldschmidt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.429 — ISO: 0.264 — OBP: 0.436
Mark Trumbo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.198 — OBP: 0.279
Milwaukee
Adam Lind
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369— ISO: 0.233 — OBP: 0.362
Analysis: We were all a bit disappointed that Lind missed out on one or two at bats as he was pulled from the lineup when the D’backs sent out a lefty to face him. His price on FanDuel is ridiculously low at $2,400 and makes a great play over there.
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Braun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.291 — OBP: 0.336
Khris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382— ISO: 0.220 — OBP: 0.378
Washington at Cincinnati – 4:10 PM EST
| Washington | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Gio Gonzalez |  | Raisel Iglesias | ||||||
| LEFT | Right | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| 8.0 | |||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.631 | 0.282 | 23.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.286 | 0.000 | 0.346 | 14.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.704 | 0.312 | 24.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.182 | 0.579 | 0.252 | 28.60% |
| Batter Splits | WAS vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs L | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Gio Gonzalez
Salaries: $8700 FD, $9200 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.22 — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% — Walk Rate: 8.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 57.9%
2014: xFIP: 3.39 — Strikeout Rate: 24.8% — Walk Rate: 8.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.9%
Cincinnati Reds vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Gio has had a very up and down season so far. He has allowed four or more earned runs in four starts, while allowing two or less in four others. He has a solid 3.22 xFIP on the year and a respectable 21.5% strikeout rate. He has a decent matchup today against the Reds who have middle of the league numbers against lefties. Gio is risky this year, and gets a bit of a bump down due to pitching at Great American Ballpark. Rating = 6
Raisel Iglesias
Salaries: $6400 FD, $4900 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.44 — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% — Walk Rate: 10.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 35.7%
Washington Nationals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Iglesias is getting another start, and they are most likely going to start stretching him out due to Cueto likely to be out for an extended amount of time. At this point, though, I will not be using Iglesias until we see a few solid starts in a row where he pitches deep into a game. Until then, he is an easy avoid. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Bryce Harper
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.531 — ISO: 0.486 — OBP: 0.475
Analysis: Harper disappointed about half the players on DK last night as he was only able to get a single and a hit by pitch. Sadly, we are expecting home runs every time this guy plays and he is in another perfect spot to produce today. His numbers against right-handed pitching are absolutely off the charts and he should be tried to fit in for cash game purposes this afternoon, especially on DraftKings where he is a bit cheaper.
Editor’s Note: Harper has been scratched from today’s lineup.
Secondary Plays:
Denard Span
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.440 — ISO: 0.247 — OBP: 0.412
Ian Desmond
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.152 — OBP: 0.314
Cincinnati
Todd Frazier
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.419 — OBP: 0.304
Analysis: Frazier makes a solid play at the third base position today against Gio as he has allowed right-handed bats a wOBA of .372 on the season. Frazier is the best right-handed bat in this Reds offense and if you want to attack Gio, you need to start with him.
Secondary Plays:
Marlon Byrd
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.442 — ISO: 0.333 — OBP: 0.400
Zack Cozart
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.419 — ISO: 0.270 — OBP: 0.381