MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 27th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-09-27 23:05:32

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

NY Yankees at Boston

NY Yankees					Boston
Masahiro Tanaka		Vegas Moneyline			Joe Kelly		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYY (-148)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.232	0.625	0.277	21.90%	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.692	0.320	14.80%
SP vs. Right	0.226	0.658	0.289	31.70%	SP vs. Right	0.226	0.674	0.299	18.40%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Masahiro Tanaka – Part II of the Tanaka experiment will take place at Fenway this afternoon as the Yankees look to see if his elbow can hold up without surgery. Under normal conditions I’d be all over Tanaka here against a Boston offense ranked 22nd in wOBA against right-handed pitching, but with the uncertainty surrounding his elbow and a pitch count of 80-85 you’re probably better off spending his hefty salary elsewhere. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $10600 FD, $19400 DD, $10800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $19600 FTD

• Joe Kelly – Kelly will look to finish the season strong for his new team, as he currently owns a 3-2 record with a 4.00 ERA and 1.26 WHIP since being acquired by the Red Sox. He’ll take on a New York team that he cruised to an easy victory over earlier this month at Fenway Park where he’s really struggled in his three home starts (5.87 ERA). His eratic control can get him into trouble sometimes, but he’s an acceptable value option to fill out your rotation on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6600 FD, $12200 DD, $6400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $10650 FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Their lineup last night was atrocious and there’s a decent chance it’ll be that way again. If Ellsbury/Gardner find their way back into the lineup, than they’re both fine options in the OF but if Joe Girardi rests his regulars once again, than you can avoid the Yankees bats today.

Boston

David Ortiz – Obviously check his status as he’s missed a few games with an injured wrist, but if he’s in the lineup he’s a fine play against Tanaka. He owns a .364 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, and already owns a double and a homerun in just seven prior meetings with Tanaka.

Additional Plays: None

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Pittsburgh					Cincinnati
Francisco Liriano		Vegas Moneyline			Alfredo Simon		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		PIT (-160)			RIGHT		6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.270	0.740	0.331	31.0%	SP vs. Left	0.249	0.723	0.317	15.00%
SP vs. Right	0.199	0.618	0.281	24.2%	SP vs. Right	0.233	0.648	0.289	15.90%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Francisco Liriano – Liriano’s dominance down the stretch is a key reason the Pirates surged into the postseason. Since being blasted for nine runs by the Braves back in August, all Liriano has done is post a 4-0 record with a ridiculous 0.69 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 9.92 K’s/9 over his last six starts. He’ll head to Cincinnati where he owns a 2.17 ERA on the road this season to take on a Reds team that owns the leagues worst wOBA since the All-Star break. While he hasn’t had tremendous success against them yet this season, I expect him to keep things rolling and he’s a fine option in all formats. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8900 FD, $15750 DD, $10500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $14250 FTD

• Alfredo Simon – Simon will look to wrap up a breakout season by recording his 16th win today against Pittsburgh. He’ll bring a very solid 15-10 record and 3.34 ERA to the hill and he’s already pitched admirably against the Pirates in three starts this season. He stumbled a bit out of the All-Star break, but he’s been excellent in each of his last three starts. However, the Pirates own the leagues highest wOBA since the All-Star break, Simon’s 5.79 K’s/9 is less than ideal and Liriano will make securing a “W” very challenging. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6800 FD, $13700 DD, $6600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $13000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen – “McCLUTCHen” delivered again last night and extended his hitting streak to six games. He’s now sporting a .348 batting average and 1.050 OPS during the month of September and owns a .415 wOBA against right-handed pitching this year.

Additional Plays: Starling Marte, Neil Walker

Cincinnati

Devin Mesoraco makes for an intriguing option at catcher (specifically for GPP use) but I’m expecting a shutdown performance from Liriano tonight and therefore won’t be targeting any Cincinnati bats.

San Diego at San Francisco

San Diego					San Francisco
Eric Stults		Vegas Moneyline			Jake Peavy		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		SFG (-176)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.288	0.788	0.346	12.1%	SP vs. Left	0.247	0.776	0.339	17.60%
SP vs. Right	0.274	0.791	0.346	15.3%	SP vs. Right	0.258	0.719	0.317	19.70%
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Eric Stults – Stults was great in his last outing, holding the Rockies scoreless over 6.1 innings of work. However, he owns an ugly 3-10 record and 4.74 ERA away from Petco and his meager 5.64 K’s/9 certainly won’t save the day. While he’s actually pitched rather well against San Francisco this season, the Giants have several guys who crush left-handed pitching in that lineup and I will be avoiding Stults today. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6000 FD, $10850 DD, $6100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $11100 FTD

• Jake Peavy – Peavy will look to continue his dominance in a Giants uniform as, after another fantastic start in his last appearance, he now owns a 6-4 record with a 2.20 ERA in 11 starts with San Francisco. He has been nearly unhittable at AT&T Park, where he owns a 1.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in five home starts. The Padres rank dead last in nearly every significant hitting catagory, making Peavy worth a look in all formats. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $8100 FD, $15850 DD, $8700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $13700 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

There isn’t much fantasy appeal in this Padres lineup and I won’t be targeting any of them today

San Francisco

Buster Posey – A notorious lefty killer, Posey owns a .372 wOBA against southpaws this season and a .332 batting against them in his career. He’s 9 for 21 with a pair of doubles and a two homeruns off of Stults in their prior meetings and has been red hot at the plate, posting a .390 average during the month of September and a .353 average since the All-Star break.

Additional Plays: Hunter Pence, Andrew Susac, Pablo Sandoval

Miami at Washington

Miami					Washington
Nathan Eovaldi		Vegas Moneyline			Stephen Strasburg		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-176)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.294	0.777	0.339	15.7%	SP vs. Left	0.234	0.662	0.291	24.20%
SP vs. Right	0.255	0.679	0.300	17.7%	SP vs. Right	0.253	0.696	0.306	30.60%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Nathan Eovaldi – On the surface, Eovaldi’s 6-13 record and 4.44 ERA leave a whole lot to be desired but his xFIP of 3.79 suggests he’s pitched better than the stats indicate. However, he’s been dreadful since the All-Star break, posting an ugly 1-9 record, 5.79 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 13 second half starts. The Nationals have swung the bat well at Nationals Park this season and, with Strasburg opposing him, I’ll be avoiding Eovaldi today. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5500 FD, $11800 DD, $6100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $12100 FTD

• Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg enters today’s game on the heels of back-to-back seven inning shutout performances which has lowered his ERA to 3.23 on the season. He’ll get another crack at this Giancarlo Stanton-less Miami team that ranks #29th in MLB in wOBA over the last two weeks. Strasburg has been excellent at home this season, posting an 8-3 record and 2.70 ERA in 17 home starts and his 10.12 K’s/9 is elite. While Matt Williams may have a quick hook today with his ace, he’s still a top tier option today. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $10000 FD, $20900 DD, $11600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $20100 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Avoid all Marlins hitters today against Strasburg

Washington

Adam LaRoche – Lefties are hitting .298 off of Eovaldi this season and LaRoche is 7 for 16 with a double and a homerun off of him in the past. LaRoche sports a .387 wOBA against right-handed pitching and he’ll bring a four game hitting streak into today’s game and has already hit a pair of homeruns this week.

Additional Plays: Denard Span, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon

Baltimore at Toronto

Baltimore					Toronto
Wei-Yin Chen		Vegas Moneyline			J.A. Happ		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		TOR (-111)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.267	0.671	0.298	16.9%	SP vs. Left	0.264	0.873	0.379	21.40%
SP vs. Right	0.264	0.756	0.330	18.1%	SP vs. Right	0.260	0.745	0.328	19.50%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs L		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Wei-Yin Chen – Chen will wrap up the best season of his young career today as he’ll take the mound sporting a 16-5 record and 3.56 ERA. With the #2 seed wrapped up in the AL playoff race, Buck Showalter has confirmed that Chen would be on a strict pitch count today and likely won’t be around long enough to garner any fantasy attention. He’s a good pitcher, but the matchup was tough anyways and you can safely avoid him today. Rating = 3

Salaries: $7500 FD, $13750 DD, $8000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• J.A. Happ – Happ was solid in his last start, holding Seattle to just two runs over seven innings of work while picking up his 10th win of the season. He doesn’t get much credit, but he’s pitched quiet well since the All-Star break (3.62 ERA in 12 starts) and owns an impressive 6-5 record and 3.18 ERA at the Rogers Center this season. This Orioles lineup is dangerous, but he’s handled them well in three prior meetings (3.18 ERA and 26 strikeouts over 22.2 innings). Rating = 5

Salaries: $6700 FD, $13100 DD, $7300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $12050 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Nelson Cruz – Cruz owns a .416 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season and is locked in at the plate right now, owning a .367 batting average and 1.026 OPS during the month of September. He’s lit up J.A. Happ in their previous meetings, going 7 for 12 off of the left-hander.

Additional Plays: Steve Pearce, Adam Jones, Delmon Young

Toronto

Jose Bautista – Bautista owns a .471 wOBA against left-handed pitching and is 3 for 6 with a homerun off of Chen in their prior meetings. He’s been locked in at the plate lately, posting a 1.087 OPS during the month of September.

Additional Plays: Edwin Encarnacion, Steve Tolleson, Dioner Navarro

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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