MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 12th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-04-13 23:00:10

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: The fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.

Detroit at Cleveland

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Lobstein – The Detroit Tigers probably aren’t all that excited to be trotting Kyle Lobstein onto the mound today, and you shouldn’t be either. The soft-tossing lefty hasn’t been overly impressive in his few chances at the MLB level and was really only mediocre for the Toledo Mud Hens last season; posting a 9-11 record with a 4.07 ERA at AAA. He was knocked around by Cleveland last season (six earned runs in 10.1 innings) and his modest strikeout totals aren’t going to save the day. The Indians tend to roll out a fairly left-heavy lineup that owned just a .300 wOBA against southpaws last season, but that’s about all Lobstein has going in his favor today, and I’ll be staying away. Rating = 4

T.J. House – House hit the ground running at the MLB level and finished his 2014 rookie campaign with a 3.35 ERA in 102 innings of work. His advanced stats (3.10 xFIP and 2.96 SIERA) both imply that his success is sustainable. The sample size is admittedly limited, but he was superb at Progressive Field; posting a 3-0 record with a 2.14 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 42 innings of work at home. However, House is faced with an extremely tough matchup against a dangerous Detroit lineup that trailed only Colorado in team wOBA versus left-handed pitching last season (.344 wOBA). Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Ian Kinsler – With four hits last night, Kinsler has already racked up ten hits in just 22 AB’s this season. Righties hit .297 off of House last season and Kinsler is a notorious lefty killer as he owns a .305 average and .884 OPS during his career against southpaws.

Miguel Cabrera – With seven hits over the last two games, Miggy has officially awaken. He posted a .382 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season and is an elite option at 1B if you can afford him.

Secondary Plays: Anthony Gose, Yoenis Cespedes

Cleveland

Carlos Santana – This would have been a nice place to unleash Yan Gomes, but his injury yesterday makes Carlos Santana my preferred play against Lobstein. Santana has showed great patience at the plate thus far in 2015 (six walks) and posted an impressive .381 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season. He’s already taken Lobstein deep once in their four previous meetings and should find himself in the heart of this Indians lineup today.

Secondary Plays: Ryan Raburn

Tampa Bay at Miami

Pitcher Grind Down

Nate Karns – If you started Nate Karns on Tuesday night, then I’m guessing you won’t be going back to that well today as he was hammered for six runs in the first two innings. Karns dominated the lower levels of the minors on his quick climb through the system, but hit some road blocks at AAA last year (a 5.08 ERA for the Durham Bulls). He’s been a high strikeout pitcher at every level and that makes him worth a GPP flier, but there are just way too much risk here for cash game use. Rating = 4

Henderson Alvarez – Let’s start with the bad; 1) Henderson’s xFIP was nearly a full point higher than his ERA last season which means duplicating last season’s 2.65 ERA is unlikely, and 2) He’s never eclipsed 5.65 K’s/9 in a season at the MLB level. While neither of those points makes him an appealing target, these two will; 1) He was absolutely brilliant at Marlins Park last season and actually posted MLB’s best home ERA among qualified pitchers (1.60 ERA in 90 innings), and 2) It was against this Tampa Bay team who he tossed his no-hitter against last June. His upside is limited by inability to rack up strikeouts, but he’s a solid option if you’re looking to round out your roster on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria – Longo has owned Alvarez in their previous meetings, going 7 for 13 with three bombs off of the righty. He’s locked into the cleanup spot for the Rays and is easily the best player to target here.

Secondary Plays: Kevin Kiermaier

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton – We’re still waiting for Stanton’s inevitable first home run of the season, and with the inexperienced Nathan Karns on the bump for the Rays, there’s a good chance it comes today. Stanton led this Rays team with a .391 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and was a machine at Marlins Park last season, where he posted a 1.051 OPS.

Secondary Plays: Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

St. Louis at Cincinnati

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Martinez – Martinez will take the bump for his first start of the season today against a Cincinnati lineup that owned a pedestrian (29th ranked) wOBA last season of .294 and who he pitched quite well against last season (a 3.09 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 11.2 innings). His command can be spotty, but his “stuff” is undeniable as he’s armed with a fastball that can reach the upper 90’s and amassed .46 K’s/9 in 2014. Last season’s BABIP of .333 is likely due for a regression and his 3.54 xFIP suggests that he’s ready to take another step forward as he moves into a full-time starters role for the Cardinals. He’s a high-risk, high-reward option tonight and, for that reason, is likely better reserved for GPP use. Rating = 6

Raisel Iglesias – The 25-year-old Cuban defector will make his MLB debut today against the Cardinals. While we don’t know too much about the lanky right-hander, we do know that he can reach the mid 90’s with his fastball and has sprinkled in a strong curve ball to rack up really nice strikeout numbers in Cuba. The Cardinals offense has been rather quiet to start this season, but there are still just way too many question marks around Iglesias to consider him for cash game use. At the very least, he’s an intriguing GPP option (especially a just 3K on FanDuel). Rating = 4.5

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Matt Adams – “Big City” finally broke out of his early season funk yesterday afternoon by grabbing a pair of hits and launching his first home run of the season. He owned a .318 average and .854 OPS against right-handed pitching last season and wore out this Cincinnati pitching staff (.375 average over 64 AB’s)

Secondary Plays: Kolten Wong, Jason Heyward, Matt Carpenter

Cincinnati

Joey Votto – Votto is off to a terrific start this season and owns a career .982 OPS against right handed pitching. Carlos Martinez has struggled versus lefties during his young career (.304 career BA against him) and can relies on his power fastball to get hitters to chase balls out of the strike zone. Unfortunately for Martinez, Votto is one of the most patient hitters in baseball and should work his way on base one way or another.

Secondary Plays: Billy Hamilton

Washington at Philadelphia

Pitcher Grind Down

Max Scherzer – Scherzer carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning in his Washington Debut on Monday, and considering his overpowering “stuff”, it’s probably not the last time he’ll flirt with a no-no this season. Scherzer posted an 18-5 record with a 3.15 ERA and an elite 252 strikeouts for the Tigers last season and should benefit from the move to the National League. Today he’ll head to the City of Brotherly Love to take on a Philly team that owned just a .294 wOBA against right-handed pitching in 2014. The only real “red-flag” on Scherzer is his high fly-ball rate, but this Phillies lineup lacks a true power threat (sorry, Ryan Howard) and Scherzer should face little resistance. Rating = 9

Sean O’Sullivan – O’Sullivan enters today’s matchup opposite Max Scherzer sporting an ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 231.1 career innings at the MLB level. He’s walked nearly as many guys as he’s stuck out and has already served up 40 long balls during his short career. This may be a banged up Washington lineup right now, but if you’re considering him for your rosters, then please take my games. Rating = 2

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Bryce Harper – Opponents own a .297 career batting average off of O’Sullivan, so the whole lineup is basically in play here. Harper is my favorite option however as he’ll be in his usual #3 spot of the order and has the best raw power on this Nationals lineup.

Secondary Plays: Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond

Philadelphia

Scherzer is my favorite pitcher on the board and I won’t be targeting anyone against him.

Secondary Plays: None

Toronto at Baltimore

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Hutchison – Hutchison pitched very well at Yankee Stadium on opening day and his success against this Baltimore team last year is hard to ignore (3-1 record, 2.54 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 44 K’s in 39 innings). He posted a very solid 8.99 K’s/9 in 2014 but proved very difficult to trust in cash games thanks to nine separate outings that saw him allow at least five earned runs. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher (just a 36.1% GB rate in 2014) which makes him an extremely risky option considering the fact that this Baltimore team led MLB in home runs last season. It’s boom or bust more often than not with Hutchison, making him a guy I’ll only consider in GPP’s. Rating = 5

Chris Tillman – Dating back to the beginning of the 2012 season, all Tillman has done is post a 38-16 record and a 3.41 ERA over 505 innings. He excelled at Camden Yards last season, posting a 2.54 ERA in 18 home starts and his post All-Star break dominance (6-1 with a 2.33 ERA in 14 starts) was a big reason why the Orioles cruised to the top of the standings in the AL East. However, today’s matchup against a Blue Jays team who owned the second-best wOBA against right-handed pitching last season (.331 wOBA) is a concern. Toronto roughed him up a bit last year as they won three of the four starts against him and dinged him for 16 runs in just 26.2 innings. Tillman’s xFIP was nearly a full point higher than his actual ERA in 2014 and his 6.51 K’s/9 is definitely not good enough to offset some of the risk here. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Dalton Pompey – The talented 22 year-old has found himself batting in the #2 hole between Jose Reyes and Jose Bautista lately, and while the results haven’t been spectacular he should see plenty of nice pitches to handle if he stays there. Granted it’s only been three AB’s, but Pompey has smacked extra base hits in each of his three prior meetings against Tillman.

Secondary Plays: Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion

Baltimore

Alejandro De Aza – Hutchison struggled with left-handed batters last season (.353 wOBA against) and De Aza showed off his pop with a homerun in yesterday’s game. He likely be in the leadoff spot once again and posted a solid .337 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. Once on base, De Aza should be able to utilize his speed to take advantage of the fact that Hutchison allowed the third most stolen bases against last season and opposing base runners were only thrown out 12% of the time.

Secondary Plays: Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Steve Pearce

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