MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 12th Page Two

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-04-12 14:59:43

NY Mets at Atlanta

Pitcher Grind Down

Bartolo Colon – At 41 years old, Bartolo looked like the 28-year-old version of himself in the season opener, holding the Nationals to just one run on three hits (with eight strikeouts) in six innings of work. He’ll turn his attention to a Braves team that owned the second worst wOBA against right-handed pitching last season (.290 wOBA) and who he posted a 2.45 ERA over 22 innings against last season. While the Braves struck out at a 22.3% clip against right-handed pitching last season, Colon can no longer touch the 90’s with his fastball and has failed to top 7 K’s/9 since 2011. He posted a 4.44 ERA on the road last season (vs 3.73 at Citi Filed) and is not on my cash game radar. Rating = 5

Alex Wood – It’ll be overlooked by many, but Wood was terrific in 2014, posting a 2.78 ERA over 171.2 innings. While that’s impressive in its own right, he was even better at Turner Field, where he owned an 8-6 record with a 2.41 ERA and 94 K’s in 82 innings of work. He has a great matchup on tap tonight as he’ll square off against a Mets team who owned just a .230 collective batting average last season and struck out at a 24.1% clip (second worst rate in the league) against lefties last year. He’s still has a lot to prove if he ever wants to be mentioned among the game’s elite pitchers, but the 24-year-old looks ripe for a nice outing. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

David Wright – I expect a nice outing from Wood tonight, but his biggest road-block is cleary David Wright as he posted a .398 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season and owns a very impressive .341 average and 1.008 OPS against southpaws during his illustrious career.

Secondary Plays: Michael Cuddyer

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – Freeman posted a .300 average and .885 OPS against right-handed pitching last season and hasn’t been fooled by Bartolo Colon in their previous meetings; going 6 for 10 with three doubles off of the right-hander.

Secondary Plays: Jonny Gomes

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox

Pitcher Grind Down

Phil Hughes – Hughes has a reputation for giving up a lot of fly balls, and it was two home runs that did him in on Monday against Detroit. The former first-round pick of the New York Yankees finally posted a season that the Yankees front office had long been expecting from the talented right-hander as he finished 2014 with 16 wins and a 3.52 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The key to his success last season looked to be his drastically improved control (0.69 walks per nine) and his 7.98 K/9 was his best since 2009. Hughes owned an impressive 2.78 ERA in 103.2 innings on the road last season, but was really knocked around by this White Sox team (16 runs in 20 innings). Hughes is a fine GPP target, but with Chris Sale chucking for the White Sox, there are safer cash game options. Rating = 6

Chris Sale – After suffering a fractured foot over the winter, the 6’6” lefty will make his season debut today for the White Sox. He was dominant in 2014; posting a 12-4 record, 2.17 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 26 starts. His 10.76 K/9 trailed only Clayton Kershaw among qualified pitchers last season and he mowed down these Twins hitters in all three of year meetings (while picking up 27 K’s in 21.1 innings). It’s possible that he could have a bit of “ring rust” and/or be on a pitch count, but this Minnesota offense is proving to be anemic and Sale is still one of the best options on the board Rating = 8.5

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

If you’re targeting anyone from the Twins, it better be from the right side of the plate. Brian Dozier is my favorite option, but I’ll be staying away.

Secondary Plays: None

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu – It was actually right-handed batters that gave Phil Hughes fits last season (.321 wOBA against) and there’s not many more threatening bats from the right side of the plate as Abreu these days. The Cuban slugger is off to a slow start in 2015 but he picked up three doubles off of Hughes last season.

Secondary Plays: Adam LaRoche, Melky Cabrera

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee

Pitcher Grind Down

Casey Sadler – With Francisco Liriano on paternity leave, Sadler will take the mound for his first ever MLB start. Once a 25th round pick, Sadler quickly ascended through the Pirates’ minor league system and after posting an 11-4 record with a 3.03 ERA at AAA Indianapolis last season, he’s earned his shot in the big leagues. Major League hitters were unkind to him when given the chance out of the Pirates’ bullpen last season and he’s never been a big strikeout guy at any level. Miller Park can be a tough environment for opposing pitchers and this Brewers lineup is loaded with dangerous hitters. I’ll be staying far away. Rating = 3

Kyle Lohse – Lohse was annihilated for eight runs on 10 hits in 3.1 innings against Colorado in his season debut, but he should bounce back with a much better outing today. Lohse pitched quite well in 2014 at Miller Park, posting a 4-3 record with a 2.72 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 12 home starts. Lohse rarely hits 90 MPH on the radar gun at this point of his career and has never posted more than 6.9 K’s/9 in a season during his 14 year career. The Pirates posted a .325 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and are very familiar with Lohse thanks to his seven straight seasons in the NL Central. Rating = 4.5

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Neil Walker – The switch-hitting Walker prefers to swing the bat from the left side of the plate where he posted a .364 wOBA last season. Lohse was much less effective against lefties last season (.319 wOBA) and Walker has smacked him around during their extensive history; going 11 for 33 with three doubles, a triple, and a home run.

Secondary Plays: Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez

Milwaukee

Adam Lind – Lind is on quite the heater to start the 2015 season, picking up at least one hit in each of their first five games. His .410 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season ranked 4th in MLB and he should feast on the inexperienced Casey Slader.

Secondary Plays: Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, Scooter Gennett

Houston at Texas

Pitcher Grind Down

Dallas Keuchel – Keuchel was terrific in the Houston opener, outdueling Corey Kluber and cruising through seven scoreless frames. Keuchel is a groundball machine and his 63.5% GB% was the best in MLB last season among qualified pitchers. The Texas Rangers rather quietly smacked left-handed pitching around last season to the tune of a .333 team wOBA, but they’re loaded with left-handed bats this season and Adrian Beltre sits as the only real landmine to dodge. His pitch-to-contact approach limits his upside, but the abundance of ground ball outs makes him a “safe” option to fill out your rotation on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6

Colby Lewis – On the Texas mound will essentially be the polar opposite of Dallas Keuchel as the right-handed Colby Lewis serves up a ton of fly balls and has long been victimized by the long ball. Lewis was a disaster last season at Rangers Ballpark, posting a 3-9 record with a 5.90 ERA in 16 home starts. The matchup versus the Astros is a favorable one as Lewis blanked them in their only meeting last season and Houston only owned a cumulative .300 wOBA against right-handed pitching in 2014. He was good in his 2015 debut, but even his quality starts are simply averaged by DFS standards. Rating = 4.5

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Chris Carter – Lewis is susceptible to the long-ball and Carter has just about as much raw power as any player in the league. He’s ice cold to start the season (1 for 19) but is a nice boom-or-bust GPP pick today.

Secondary Plays: George Springer, Jose Altuve

Texas

Adrian Beltre – Beltre posted an impressive .421 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season and raked at Rangers Ballpark; where he posted a .355 batting average and .958 OPS. With four extra-base hits over the last three games, he looks to already be moving into mid-season form.

Secondary Plays: Jake Smolinski

Kansas City at LA Angels

Pitcher Grind Down

Yordano Ventura – Ventura was forced from his first start of the season with a thumb injury, but the word out of the Royals camp is that it was simply a thumb cramp and he should show no Ill-effects today. The 23-year-old can flat out throw gas and was able to overpower many MLB hitters on his way to a 14-10 record and 3.20 ERA over 183 inning as a rookie in 2014. He’ll head to Anaheim to take on an Angels team that was one of the few teams not overmatched by Ventura’s power and whose lineup is littered with dangerous bats. Ventura’s spotty command can get him into trouble at times and makes him hard to completely trust in cash games tonight considering the tough matchup. However, I have little doubt that he’ll continue to improve his strikeout rate and he makes for an intriguing GPP option. Rating = 5.5

C.J. Wilson – Control problems led to many of C.J. Wilson’s struggles in 2014 as his 4.35 BB/9 was the second worst in MLBl among qualified pitchers. However, he was outstanding in his first start, allowing just three baserunners on his way to eight shutout innings against Seattle. Wilson was a pimp at Angel Stadium last season, where he racked up a 9-2 record and a 3.82 ERA in 15 home starts. He routinely comes in around 8 K/9 but tonight’s matchup against a Royals team who owned the league’s lowest strikeout percentage against lefties in MLB puts a dent into his fantasy outlook. Rating =6

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Alex Rios – Rios still remains an offensive weapon against left-handed pitching as he posted a rock solid .381 wOBA in 2014. C.J. Wilson allowed right-handed batters to post a .345 wOBA against him and has been smacked around by Rios in the past (8 for 21 with a pair of homeruns).

Secondary Plays: Salvador Perez, Lorenzo Cain

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun – Calhoun broke out his boom-stick last night, crushing a home run and adding a double. He posted a .348 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and I like his aggressive hitting approach against Ventura’s gas.

Secondary Plays: Mike Trout, C.J. Cron

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3