MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 19th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-04-21 17:03:09

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any fantasy point average listed uses FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.

Atlanta at Toronto

Pitcher Grind Down

Shelby Miller – Miller has only allowed one run thus far in his two starts as an Atlanta Brave, but the control problems that inevitably sent him packing from St. Louis look to still be holding him back again this year. He’s failed to pitch past the fifth inning in either start this season thanks to spotty command that leads to both free passes and an inflated pitch count. There’s no doubting the former first round picks “stuff” but his 4.60 SIERA was the fourth worst among qualified pitchers last season and the matchup today is frightening. Toronto’s lineup is loaded with dangerous hitters and the Blue Jays posted a team .336 wOBA at the Rogers Centre last season. Shelby coughs up a lot of fly balls and that could turn ugly for him in a hurry against the likes of Bautista/Encarnacion/Donaldson. He’s a GPP only option for me. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $8100 FD, $6700 DK, $5750 FA, $11200 DD, $98500 FF

Daniel Norris – After blowing away the competition through his time in the minor leagues, Norris went 4-0 with a 2.93 ERA (with 30 strikeouts) in 27.2 innings this spring to lock himself into a starter’s role for the Blue Jays. The 21-year-old southpaw has been sharp in his first two big-league outings and the matchup tonight against the Braves looks to be the best time yet to unleash him onto your rosters. He’s racked up double-digit K/9 numbers at every level in the minor leagues and is widely regarded as Toronto’s #1 pitching prospect. The Braves owned an ugly 23.4 K% last season against left-handed pitching and posted an ugly .294 team wOBA away from Turner Field. As with any young pitcher, there’s plenty of risk involved, but this could be your last chance to use him before the masses take notice. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $6500 FD, $5800 DK, $5500 FA, $8500 DD, $70200 FF

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Chris Johnson – Chris Johnson owns a .312 career batting average against left-handed pitching and is a nice value option today as he’ll likely slide into the middle of this Atlanta batting order.

Secondary Plays:

None

Toronto

Jose Bautista – Joey Bats has been awfully quiet thus far, but he homered last night and it’s only a matter of time until he explodes. Bautista posted a .398 wOBA at the Rogers Center last season and his plate patience and Miller’s spotty command combine to make him a very “safe” cash game option with GPP upside.

Secondary Plays:

Edwin Encarnacion, Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson

Chicago White Sox at Detroit

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana – Quintana had a rough debut in the 2015 season (five earned runs in five innings against Kansas City) but bounced back nicely in his last outing, allowing just one unearned run on three hits over six innings at Cleveland. With a career 3.52 ERA over his first three MLB seasons, he likely doesn’t get the credit he deserves. Quintana has lowered his ERA and raised his strikeout percentage in each of the last three seasons, and there is plenty of reason to believe that he can beat (or at least match) last years 3.32 ERA and 8.00 K/9. With all that said, this is a very touch matchup as Detroit owned a .344 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season and trailed only the Rockies in team wOBA at home. Rating = 5

Salaries: $8300 FD, $7400 DK, $5750 FA, $14500 DD, $105500 FF

Shane Greene – To say that Greene is off to a nice start with his new team this season would be an understatement; The former Yankee has tossed eight innings in both of his starts with the Tigers and has yet to surrender an earned run. While nobody expects that level of success to continue, had quite a bit of success last year as a rookie and amassed 3.78 ERA (3.40 xFIP) in 14 starts for New York. His ability to keep the ball down in the strike zone has created plenty of groundballs (50.2 GB% last year) and has prevented him from being burned by the long-ball (0.92 HR/9). He somewhat quietly racked up 9.27 K/9 as a rookie and is a fine option tonight as a secondary option on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8400 FD, $6000 DK, $5250 FA, $8650 DD, $95000 FF

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu – In case you were wondering, his power is real! Abreu blasted a grand-slam last night as the White Sox trounced Anibal Sanchez and, while his success against left-handed pitching drew more attention, Abreu owned a .398 wOBA against righties during his rookie season.

Secondary Plays:

Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – Miggy brings a .442 batting average into today’s game and has as much protection around him as ever before. He owned a .407 wOBA at Comerica Park last season and has always handled the bat very well versus left-handed pitching. He’s 7 for 20 with a homerun off of Quintana in his carer.

Victor Martinez – V-Mart absolutely terrorized left-handed pitching last season, posting a video-game like .476 wOBA and .322 ISO last season. He’s also picked up hits in 7 of his 18 AB’s against Jose Quintana.

Secondary Plays:

Yoenis Cespedes, Rajai Davis, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Pineda – Pineda’s numbers through two starts aren’t pretty (5.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP), but the same can’t be said about the 15 strikeouts in 12.1 innings. After two stiff tests to open the season (Baltimore and Toronto), facing the Rays this afternoon is easily his most favorable matchup thus far. A look at his advanced stats from those first two starts paints a bit of a different picture, as Pineda’s .412 BABIP against is certainly due for a regression and his xFIP of 1.99 is terrific. He’s been relying more heavily on his changeup this season (13.4% of his pitches) and he continues to show great control. Pineda posted an impressive 24.9 K% in his only full season in the big leagues, and after posting a 1.89 ERA in 13 starts last season, there’s a lot to be optimistic about. There are definitely safer options on the board, but his high strikeout potential makes him a fine GPP target. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8500 FD, $8100 DK, $6100 FA, $14850 DD, $128600 FF

Matt Andriese – Andriese wasn’t terrible in his first career MLB start, but he also didn’t make it through the fourth inning. The 25-year-old right-hander posted a solid 11-8 record and 3.77 ERA for AAA Durham last season and was terrific in Spring Training where he posted a 2.21 ERA over 20.1 innings. His weakness last season was left-handed batters as they hit .272 off of him at AAA (with 11 HR’s in 80 innings) and unfortunately for him this Yankees lineup is loaded with dangerous bats from the left-side of the plate. He’s still being “stretched out” for a starter’s workload and the matchup isn’t an easy one; I’ll be staying away. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5000 FD, $4500 DK, $4500 FA, $8500 DD, $59000 FF

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Brett Gardner – With two hits and two steals yesterday, Gardner looks to be rounding into mid-season form. Gardner can rack up fantasy points in all kinds of ways and his game style translates well to the astroturf in Tampa. He should be able to take advantage of the matchup against the inexperienced Andriese.

Secondary Plays:

Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez

Tampa Bay

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

David DeJesus, Evan Longoria

Miami at NY Mets

Pitcher Grind Down

Tom Koehler – Through two starts, Koehler may sport a nice 3.18 ERA, but he’s spent the majority of those two starts against the Atlanta Braves in survival mode. Koehler pitched very well against the New York Mets last season (2.97 ERA over 33.1 innings) but was unable to pick up a “W” in any of their five meetings, and with Matt Harvey opposing him this afternoon, a win is unlikely here as well. Koehler was not as effective away from Marlins Park last season, posting an unsightly 4.63 ERA in 17 road starts. The Mets lineup is not overly imposing, but Koehler is still hard to trust in cash games. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7000 FD, $6300 DK, $5150 FA, $8500 DD, $87800 FF

Matt Harvey – What’s not to like about Harvey here? The Mets’ ace has picked up wins in both previous starts this season and looks 100% healed from the elbow injury that cost him the entire 2014 season. The right-hander owns a career 2.01 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 19 career starts at Citi Field and is a threat to rack up double-digit strikeouts every time he takes the mound. He’ll face a Marlins team whose bats went quiet on the road last season (.297 team wOBA) and who owned the league’s third-highest strikeout rate in 2014. Rating = 9

Salaries: $10500 FD, $9900 DK, $7400 FA, $18400 DD, $147900 FF

Batter Grind Down

Miami

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich

NY Mets

Lucas Duda – With a righty on the mound, Duda is always a viable option. The lefty posted an impressive .394 wOBA and .270 ISO against right-handed pitching last season and has been red-hot to start the 2015 season. His raw power makes him an ideal GPP target.

Secondary Plays:

Daniel Murphy

Baltimore at Boston

Pitcher Grind Down

Miguel Gonzalez – Gonzalez will take the mound at Fenway Park fresh off of one of the best starts of his career in his last outing. Gonzalez was brilliant on Tuesday night, striking out ten Yankees as he cruised to his first win of the season. He’s posted ERA’s well below 4.00 in each of the last three seasons, but his xFIP (4.46 in 2014) routinely sits around one whole point higher than his actual ERA. He pitched very well against the Red Sox last season, posting a 1.80 ERA against them in their three starts. His last outing was the first time in his career he reached double-digit strikeouts, so be careful not to chase those K’s too hard. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7900 FD, $6200 DK, $5000 FA, $8500 DD, $92900 FF

Rick Porcello – Porcello is not the most exciting fantasy option when he takes the mound, but the Red Sox willingness to fork over $82.5 million over the next four seasons should tell you a little something about his pitching abilities. Porcello has posted three consecutive seasons with at least 176 IP’s and an xFIP under 3.90 and owned a career best 15-13 record with a 3.43 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 2014. Porcello’s success is dependent on his ability to keep the ball down which leads to a high percentage of ground-balls and rarely sees him burned by the long-ball. Succeeding in that area will be all the more vital today against this Orioles team that led MLB in homeruns last season, but Porcello kept them at bay last season and won both starts against them. The lack of strikeouts hurts his value, but he’s in play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $8200 FD, $6500 DK, $5900 FA, $13000 DD, $99800 FF

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Chris Davis – Porcello’s weakness during his career has been left-handers and “Crush” still ranks among the games most dangerous left-handed power hitters. Davis went deep last night and with five hits in the last three games, his bat looks to be finally coming alive.

Secondary Plays:

Alejandro De Aza, Everth Cabrera

Boston

David Ortiz – Big Papi was locked in yesterday, going 3 for 3 and drawing a walk in his four plate appearances. He posted a .364 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and will loom as a tough out in the #3 spot of this loaded Boston lineup.

Secondary Plays:

Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2