MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 19 Page Two

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-04-19 14:47:37

Philadelphia at Washington

Pitcher Grind Down

David Buchanan – Don’t over-think this one; not only has Buchanan been blasted in each of his first two starts this season, his subpar career 5.31 K/9 is not something you want to be targeting in the first place. This Nationals lineup is slowly getting healthy and they shelled Buchanan for seven runs on 10 hits in 6.0 innings in his only previous visit to Nationals Park. With Stephen Strasburg opposing him, I’ll be staying far away. Rating = 2

Salaries: $5400 FD, $4800 DK, $4500 FA, $8500 DD, $73500 FF

Stephen Strasburg – After back-to-back ugly starts to open the season, I’m guessing the ownership numbers for Strasburg are down quite a bit today across the DFS industry, and frankly, I’ll be happy about that. He was in many DFS’ers dog house at times last season as well, and when all was said and done, he rocked an impressive 3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 10.17 K/9. Strasburg owned a 9-3 record and 2.56 ERA in 18 starts at Nationals Stadiums last season and absolutely dominated this Phillies team; going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA, 0.98 WHIP while racking up 40 strikeouts in 31.2 innings. The Phillies owned just a .294 team wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and are once again off to a slow start offensively. Don’t let his poor start fool you, he’s still an elite pitcher. Rating = 9

Salaries: $9800 FD, $10100 DK, $7300 FA, $17000 DD, $147000 FF

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

None

Washington

Bryce Harper – Harper crushed a 450+ foot home run in yesterday’s game and is one of the best options in the OF again today. He’s now gone deep in back-to-back games and racked up eight runs scored over the last five games. The matchup against an inexperienced right-hander just seals the deal.

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Zimmerman

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Garza – Garza was quite ineffective against the Rockies in his season debut, and while he was a bit better in his second start in St. Louis, the five walks in that outing are a bit concerning. Last season, this familiar Pirates team posted an impressive .329 wOBA against right-handed pitching, a .333 wOBA at home and smacked Garza around for a 4.60 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in their three meetings. While Garza will likely prove to still be a very capable starter for the Brew Crew, he’s seen his strikeout rates plummet over the last several seasons and with Gerrit Cole opposing him, he’s a long shot for a “W”. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7600 FD, $7000 DK, $6150 FA, $13200 DD, $95900 FF

Gerrit Cole – Gerrit Cole was faced with a stiff test in his last outing, and responded with a terrific performance against the Detroit Tigers to pick up his first win on the season. The big right-hander can his the upper 90’s with his fastball and his 9.0 K/9 from last season seems likely to climb even higher in 2015 as he gains more control of his breaking pitches. Cole will face a Brewers line (sans Carlos Gomez) this afternoon who he blew away in both meetings last season and at PNC Park where he owned a 5-1 record with a 3.39 ERA in 11 home starts last season. He’s the emerging ace of this Pittsburgh pitching staff and a nice target in all formats. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $9000 FD, $8400 DK, $7000 FA, $16450 DD, $131300 FF

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Braun, Adam Lind

Pittsburgh

Pedro Alvarez – His inconsistencies make him a better GPP target, but Alvarez remains a very dangerous bat against right-handed pitching. The lefty posted a .336 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and has tagged Matt Garza in the past, going 8 for 18 with two doubles and a home run

Secondary Plays:

Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Gregory Polanco

LA Angels at Houston

Pitcher Grind Down

Garrett Richards – A knee injury derailed Richards’ breakout 2014 season, but not before the hard-throwing right-hander posted an impressive 13-4 record, 2.61 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and racked up 164 strikeouts in 168.2 innings. He’s set to make his 2015 debut tonight against a Houston team that he destroyed in four separate meetings last season and who own the league’s highest strikeout rate thus far this season (27%). Richards can consistently reach the upper 90’s with his fastball, and he finally managed to put up the kinds of strikeout numbers the Angels front office had been expecting. There may be some “ring rust” in here since it’s his first start in six months, but the matchup is terrific and he’s well worth a look. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9000 DK, $6500 FA, $13850 DD

Scott Feldman – In my 4+ years of playing daily fantasy baseball, I’ve never once been inclined to start Scott Feldman, and it’s not going to happen today either. After a solid debut against the Indians, Feldman was demolished by Oakland on Monday; serving up three home runs and eight runs in just five innings. Feldman has never been a strikeout pitcher, but his uninviting 14% K% last season was a his lowest since 2010. He pitched rather well against the Angels last season, but their lineup is very dangerous and Feldman’s upside is so limited that he’s just not on my radar today. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6600 FD, $5500 DK, $4850 FA, $10750 DD, $85100 FF

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Mike Trout – Trout was held hitless for the first time this year in yesterday’s game, but still enters today with a .400 batting average and 1.132 OPS. He’s 5 for 14 with a pair of home runs off of Scott Feldman and should be well worth his big-ticket asking price. As an added bonus; Scott Feldman allowed more stolen bases last season than any other pitcher.

Secondary Plays:

Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols

Houston

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Jose Altuve

Cleveland at Minnesota

Pitcher Grind Down

T.J. House – Simply put; House was annihilated in his 2015 debut, allowing six earned runs against the Detroit Tigers before being yanked with just one out in the second inning. While that outing is concerning, the Tigers are a very formidable opponent for any left-handed pitcher and the matchup in Minnesota today is infinitely more appealing. House posted a rock solid 3.35 ERA over 102 innings in his rookie campaign and his 3.10 xFIP suggest that he should see continued success this season. Among pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings last season, only Dallas Kuechel owned a higher ground-ball rate than House and his 7.06 K/9 is decent considering his pitching style. House squared off against this Minnesota team on four occasions last season, posting a 3-0 record with a 2.01 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 22.1 innings. Rating = 5.5

Trevor May – May enters today’s game sporting an ugly 7.94 ERA during his young career, but it’s not quite as bad as it seems. His career xFIP sits at a respectable 4.37 and nearly struck out a batter per inning during his brief MLB career. He’ll face a Cleveland team that handles the bat pretty well versus right-handed pitching (.319 wOBA in 2014) and who smashed him in their two meetings last season (9 runs and 19 baserunners in 9.2 innings). The 25 year old is destined for improved results, but he’s still not worth much fantasy attention. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5600 FD, $5700 DK, $5000 FA, $8500 DD, $65800 FF

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Michael Brantley – Brantley returned from a back injury on Friday and is faced with a terrific matchup today against Trevor May. Brantley posted a .401 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and Trevor May has proven to be way too hittable.

Secondary Plays:

Jason Kipnis, Michael Bourn, Brandon Moss

Minnesota

Brian Dozier – Dozier owns a career .859 OPS versus left-handed pitching and has had success against House in the past. He’s a top tier option at 2B.

Secondary Plays:

Trevor Plouffe

Oakland at Kansas City

Pitcher Grind Down

Scott Kazmir – Kazmir looks like he wants to throw his hat into the Cy Young race thus far in 2015 as the southpaw has allowed just one run (a solo bomb off the bat of Jose Altuve) and four hits over his first 13 innings. After several very tough seasons from 2009-2011 and subsequent release by the Angels, Kazmir re-tooled his delivery and pitching repertoire and the results have been dramatic; a 27-18 record with a 3.66 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 8.57 K/9 since returning to the big league in 2013. He’s met with a tough task today as this Kansas City team is not only rolling right now, but they also struck fewer times than any other team in baseball last season (by far). He’s worth a look, but not quite up with the top-tier options today. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9000 FD, $7800 DK, $6650 FA, $14500 DD, $118300 FF

Danny Duffy – Duffy’s was brilliant last season; posting a 2.53 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 149.1 innings. However, his advanced stats revealed some major red flags (mainly a unsustainable .239 BABIP and an xFIP of 4.42). If his firs two starts in 2015 are any indication, then the advanced stats look to be correct as Duffy has coughed up eight earned runs in just 11.1 innings. The funny part about this? His xFIP of 3.13 during those two starts now implies that was highly unlucky. It’s not rare for pitchers to battle through bouts of both good and bad fortune, so I won’t be over-reacting to either his breakout 2014 season or his inauspicious start to 2015. He’ll face an Oakland team who ranked #24th in MLB on wOBA against left-handed pitching in 2014, but who are off to a hot start this year. Duffy doesn’t have an overly high ceiling, so he’s better served as a secondary arm on multi-pitcher sites. Rating =5

Salaries: $7800 FD, $7100 DK, $5850 FA, $11300 DD, $82300 FF

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Billy Butler, Ben Zobrist

Kansas City

Lorenzo Cain – Cain was held hitless for the first time this season in yesterday’s game, but I like him today despite the tough matchup against Scott Kazmir. Cain posted a .362 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season and enters today’s game sporting a .419 average and 1.141 OPS.

Secondary Plays:

Salvador Perez

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