MLB Grind Down: Sunday, June 7 - Page Two

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2015-06-07 14:26:24

Pittsburgh at Atlanta – 1:35 PM EST

Pittsburgh					Atlanta
			Gerrit Cole					Alex Wood
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -148					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.254	0.705	0.315	0.242	SP vs. Left	0.254	0.655	0.294	0.238
SP vs. Right	0.23	0.627	0.28	0.26	SP vs. Right	0.248	0.681	0.304	0.22
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Gerrit Cole

Salaries: $10400 FD, $10600 DK

Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 16.7% (Rank: 29)

If you are looking for a safe, steady cash game play on this Sunday, take a long look at Gerrit Cole. He has been pitching deep into games, has seen a nice increase in his strikeout rate so far in 2015, and is a good bet to pitch well against Atlanta here. The only worry is that the Braves really don’t strike out very much. The volume of innings should be enough to make up for that, though. If his salary fits into your roster, go for it. Rating = 8

Alex Wood

Salaries: $7900 FD, $8500 DK

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 23.9% (Rank: 2)

The Pirates have been surprisingly bad against left-handed pitchers so far in 2015, even with the presence of Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte in the lineup. Part of the reason is that Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez both struggle against lefties, so there isn’t a lot of thump beyond the two big outfielders. Alex Wood is an interesting target because of this, and his peripherals are a mixed bag. He doesn’t allow the long ball, which is a great sign. However, I’d be more optimistic if Gerrit Cole wasn’t the opponent. That has me off Wood today. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Starling Marte
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.523 — ISO: .531 — OBP: 0.364

Look at these numbers against left-handed pitching. My goodness. Marte is not a household name, but he is absolutely an elite option against an average LHP today.

Andrew McCutchen
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: .133 — OBP: 0.371

After a slow start to the year, McCutchen has picked up his play since mid-May, and he has regained his status as one of the top fantasy outfielders in the game. I don’t think many people will be on him today, making him a great, high-upside tournament option.

Secondary Plays:

NO SECONDARY PLAYS

Atlanta

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Freddie Freeman
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: .253 — OBP: 0.380

Oakland at Boston – 1:35 PM EST

Oakland					Boston
			Kendall Graveman					Clay Buchholz
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -144					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.304	0.882	0.389	0.136	SP vs. Left	0.267	0.749	0.331	0.185
SP vs. Right	0.259	0.692	0.309	0.136	SP vs. Right	0.269	0.725	0.321	0.208
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kendall Graveman

Salaries: $5400 FD, $4400 DK

Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 16.4% (Rank: 30)

Graveman has bounced back from a brief exodus from the big league club, and he has pitched well since his return. However, he isn’t striking anyone out and has a bad matchup against Boston’s bats at Fenway Park. Boston strikes out less than any other team against RHP this year. Graveman is definitely a pitcher to avoid today. Rating = 2.5

Clay Buchholz

Salaries: $8300 FD, $7800 DK

Oakland Athletics vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 17.2% (Rank: 27)

Many fantasy players like Clay Buchholz more than me, and I can see the reasoning behind it. Over the last two years, his xFIP and SIERA have both been much lower than his ERA, which indicates that he has been dealing with some bad luck. That also bears itself out in a .315 BABIP so far in 2015, which would be his highest mark since 2008. I don’t mind targeting him in the right matchup, but I don’t feel like the A’s are the right matchup. They hit RHP very well and don’t strike out often, leading me to steer clear of Buchholz today. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Billy Burns
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: .125 — OBP: 0.370

He may not be the biggest power bat on the team, but Burns possesses a nice game for daily fantasy players. He has a lot of speed and will try to steal any time he reaches base against a RHP. That gives him a good deal of upside for a non-power bat, and he is certainly in play today.

Secondary Plays:

Stephen Vogt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.412 — ISO: .286 — OBP: 0.399

Boston

David Ortiz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: .221 — OBP: 0.386

Ortiz is certainly not having his best season, but his power metrics are fine, and this could be the matchup to get him on track. He is a much better play on FanDuel, where his price remains significantly cheaper than it is everywhere else.

Secondary Plays:

Hanley Ramirez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: .199 — OBP: 0.222

Milwaukee at Minnesota – 2:10 PM EST

Milwaukee					Minnesota
			Mike Fiers					Mike Pelfrey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIN -101					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.239	0.686	0.3	0.255	SP vs. Left	0.193	0.604	0.281	0.12
SP vs. Right	0.224	0.668	0.292	0.289	SP vs. Right	0.338	0	0.399	0.092
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits			MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Fiers

Salaries: $7800 FD, $8100 DK

Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 5)

Fiers has been up-and-down for the entirety of the 2015 season, but today’s matchup could be one to take advantage of. The Minnesota bats have predictably cooled against right-handed pitching in recent weeks, and Fiers has looked a lot better of late. The Twins strike out at a hefty clip against right-handers, making Fiers one of the sneakier options of the day. Rating = 7

Mike Pelfrey

Salaries: $6800 FD, $4900 DK

Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 5)

There are no words for Mike Pelfrey’s smoke-and-mirrors start to 2015. He will not keep this pace up, and don’t be fooled by his too-good-to-be-true surface stats, especially against a Brewers team that is starting to get healthy for the first time all year. Rating = 2.5

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Ryan Braun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: .270 — OBP: 0.343

Ryan Braun’s in-and-out of the lineup status always worries me, but he returned to the lineup yesterday and didn’t miss a beat, homering in his first at-bat. The Brewers are good targets today against the over-achieving Pelfrey, and Braun is a great play assuming he is back in the lineup again today. He has elite power against right-handers, and he is always capable of a big performance.

Secondary Plays:

Jonathan Lucroy
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.273 — ISO: .100 — OBP: 0.281

Adam Lind
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: .239 — OBP: 0.371
p.

Minnesota

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Joe Mauer
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.279 — ISO: .078 — OBP: 0.322

Texas at Kansas City – 2:10 PM EST

Texas					Kansas City
			Colby Lewis					Jeremy Guthrie
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KC -118					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.312	0.863	0.374	0.143	SP vs. Left	0.308	0.879	0.385	0.141
SP vs. Right	0.26	0.761	0.33	0.225	SP vs. Right	0.243	0.626	0.28	0.121
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Colby Lewis

Salaries: $6300 FD, $6300 DK

Kansas City Royals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 28)

Even though Lewis had a great start to the year, the evidence was there that he hadn’t miraculously changed as a pitcher. He has always struggled to get left-handed batters out, and there is no reason to take him today against a team that rarely strikes out. Avoid. Rating = 2.5

Jeremy Guthrie

Salaries: $5700 FD, $4100 DK

Texas Rangers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 12)

Let us not forget that Guthrie is only two starts removed from going just 1+ innings against the Yankees and allowing nine runs. He can’t get left-handed batters out, either. This will be a fun matchup between two hurlers that can’t figure out those lefty bats. Avoid. Rating = 2.5

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Prince Fielder
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.433 — ISO: .180 — OBP: 0.445

Fielder is enjoying a renaissance this year for the Rangers, and he has been a big key to the team’s improved play over the last few weeks. He should feast on the offerings of Guthrie, with the only negative being that this game is in Kansas City and not Texas. Despite this, he remains on the radar as one of the top overall bats today with the way this matchup sets up.

Joey Gallo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.485 — ISO: .364 — OBP: 0.462

The young Gallo profiles very well against right-handed pitching. He crushed RHP in the minors, and Guthrie should prove no challenge to the rising star. He is an elite play where his price is still on the cheap side, but a secondary play on sites that have priced him up.

Secondary Plays:

Shin-Soo Choo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: .238 — OBP: 0.351

Kansas City

Mike Moustakas
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: .146 — OBP: 0.383

Don’t sleep on the Royals’ bats on the other side of this game, especially the left-handers. Moustakas generally comes at a bit cheaper of a price than Alex Gordon, so he gets the nod as my primary play today. His numbers are above average all across the board against RHP, and he is developing into a solid #2 hitter for the team. I really like him as a cash game play at third base today.

Secondary Plays:

Alex Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: .183 — OBP: 0.369

Detroit at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM EST

Detroit					Chicago White Sox
			Alfredo Simon					Jeff Samardzija
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CWS -122					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.257	0.733	0.321	0.157	SP vs. Left	0.248	0.685	0.301	0.227
SP vs. Right	0.223	0.639	0.284	0.156	SP vs. Right	0.231	0.646	0.284	0.212
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Alfredo Simon

Salaries: $7400 FD, $6000 DK

Chicago White Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 22)

I am interested to see where the ownership levels fall on Simon today. His 2.97 ERA is exceptional, and he gets to face a relatively benign White Sox offense here. I am still not on board, as his 4.27 xFIP suggests regression is coming, and his lack of strikeouts limit his upside anyhow. Don’t get sucked in by the matchup, especially in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field. Rating = 4.5

Jeff Samardzija

Salaries: $8700 FD, $8300 DK

Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 19)

Through the first two months of the season, many White Sox fans consider the Samardzija acquisition a disappointment. He has taken the blame for a lot of the team’s struggles, but he has quietly been pitching deeper into games of late. His advanced metrics indicate improvement is on the horizon, though his strikeout rate is below his career norms. The Detroit offense came to life with seven runs on Saturday, which worries me a bit. I am neutral on Samardzija today, but I would lean toward not playing him in this matchup. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: .221 — OBP: 0.418

Miggy finally put the night-game home run blues to rest yesterday, and the good news is that a day game arrives today! He has hit much better in day games this year, and perhaps John Diggity Danks was the kick-start to a hot streak. Home runs tend to come in bunches for the Tigers’ slugger, and he has solid upside today against Samardzija, who isn’t afraid to attack hitters in the zone.

Secondary Plays:

Jose Iglesias
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: .053 — OBP: 0.350

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: .219 — OBP: 0.345

If you are looking for a contrarian tournament pick today, Abreu is your man. He has been less than 10% owned every day this week, including a 2-3% ownership for his two home run game against Texas. His ownership percentage will be higher on FanDuel where he is significantly cheaper than other sites, but he is an intriguing play everywhere. Perhaps he will be the one to kick in regression for Alfredo Simon.

Secondary Plays:

Avisail Garcia
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: .108 — OBP: 0.344

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