MLB Grind Down: Sunday, June 7th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Author’s note: Well, hello everyone! I am very excited to be bringing you my first Grind Down article… ever! Hopefully I acquitted myself as a decent fill-in for the usual crew.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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LA Angels at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM EST
| LA Angels | NY Yankees | ||||||||
 | C.J. Wilson |  | CC Sabathia | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYY -114 | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.196 | 0.570 | 0.262 | 22.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.147 | 0.447 | 0.204 | 26.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.270 | 0.751 | 0.334 | 18.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.328 | 0.915 | 0.395 | 20.60% |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | ANA vs L | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
C.J. Wilson
Salaries: $7900 FD, $7300 DK
New York Yankees vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 18.0% (Rank: 24)
This game will feature two left-handed pitchers that are both somewhat of an enigma right now. Wilson has always been a guy who nibbles too much and can’t put hitters away whenever he gets ahead in the count. That leads to high pitch counts in a low amount of innings pitched, which always limits his fantasy upside. He is not a recommended play even though the Yankees do tend to be a lefty-heavy lineup. Surprisingly, they don’t strike out a lot against southpaws, limiting Wilson’s already sketchy upside. Rating = 4.5
CC Sabathia
Salaries: $6800 FD, $6900 DK
Los Angeles Angels vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 19.1% (Rank: 22)
Sabathia’s advanced statistics are actually quite a bit better than his surface stats would indicate, as his xFIP and SIERA are both around two runs lower than his 5.45 ERA. A lot of that is due to the high amount of home runs he has allowed, but this isn’t the matchup to expect correction there. The Angels are swinging the bats better these days, and they have several players that are capable of doing damage against the aging lefty. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
Mike Trout
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: .178 — OBP: 0.373
Trout is always in play, especially against pitchers that are prone to give up the long ball. He has struggled against LHP more than usual this year, and he will likely be lower owned today with players gravitating toward Coors Field bats, but that doesn’t make him any less dangerous. He is a fantastic GPP option.
Secondary Plays:
David Freese
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: .325 — OBP: 0.304
NY Yankees
Alex Rodriguez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: .244 — OBP: 0.397
Rodriguez always brings a power element to the table, and his price remains slightly cheaper than the other elite first basemen on the board. He should be a solid option against the nibbling of C.J. Wilson here. A-Rod has raked against LHP so far this season, and this matchup should provide him with ample opportunity to keep that up.
Secondary Plays:
Chris Young
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.449 — ISO: .326 — OBP: 0.415
Houston at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST
| Houston | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Collin McHugh |  | R.A. Dickey | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| HOU -104 | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.621 | 0.276 | 21.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.221 | 0.688 | 0.308 | 15.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.669 | 0.296 | 26.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.756 | 0.331 | 19.00% |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Collin McHugh
Salaries: $8400 FD, $7500 DK
Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 14)
Coming off a great season in 2014, many expected McHugh to take the lead as Houston’s ace this year. That role has been snatched up by Dallas Keuchel, but McHugh is settling in as a steady option. His ability to strike batters out when he is on is intriguing, but this is a very tough matchup on the road against a good offense. McHugh is not a cash game option today, but he is a potential tournament play as an SP #2 on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6
R.A. Dickey
Salaries: $7300 FD, $6700 DK
Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 25.4% (Rank: 2)
Things are not going well for R.A. Dickey so far in 2015. His strikeout rate is down almost two full strikeouts this year (from 7.22 K/9 in 2014 to 5.27 K/9 in 2015), his ERA is ballooning, and he is allowing a lot of home runs. The upside is usually there for a RHP against the Astros, but I just don’t see it with the knuckleballer. I’m neutral on Dickey today, as I can see the potential argument in his favor. It’s just not a direction I am going. Rating = 5.5
Batter Grind Down
Houston
Preston Tucker
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: .222 — OBP: 0.300
Tucker is one of my favorite options today on sites where his price is still in the mid-tier. He is locked into the middle of Houston’s order, and he was 2-for-3 with a pair of doubles off Dickey the last time these teams met up. BvP is always something you can rely on more with a knuckleballer, and Tucker appears to have no issues picking up Dickey’s offerings.
Secondary Plays:
Evan Gattis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: .263 — OBP: 0.286
Toronto
Jose Reyes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: .114 — OBP: 0.341
Reyes appears to be fully over his recent injury woes, as evidenced by his three stolen bases yesterday. Shortstop is a very thin position for DFS purposes, and that increases Reyes’ value even more. His price will soon rise, so this is the time to take advantage of a still-discounted player.
Secondary Plays:
Jose Bautista
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: .235 — OBP: 0.380
Chris Colabello
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: .110 — OBP: 0.392
Russell Martin
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: .200 — OBP: 0.323
San Diego at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM EST
| San Diego | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Odrisamer Despaigne |  | Johnny Cueto | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN -173 | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.681 | 0.307 | 11.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.193 | 0.562 | 0.255 | 24.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.672 | 0.299 | 18.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.199 | 0.604 | 0.268 | 25.40% |
| Batter Splits | SDP BvP | SD vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Odrisamer Despaigne
Salaries: $5700 FD, $5600 DK
Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 24)
Odrisamer Despaigne’s season has been a roller coaster. He was decent for a while, then got shelled in back-to-back outings by the Diamondbacks and Cubs, and he has been good ever since. That being said, he has a strikeout figure of just 4.56 K/9, and the Reds strike out just 18.6% of the time against right-handers this year. There is little to no upside here. Rating = 3
Johnny Cueto
Salaries: $10500 FD, $9600 DK
San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 7)
After missing a start, Cueto was able to knock the rust off by facing the league-worst Phillies offense earlier in the week. He didn’t miss a beat, tossing six innings of one-run ball, though he only struck out four. He is a safe option here at home against a Padres team that has scuffled against right-handers all year. They also strike out a lot, which increases Cueto’s appeal today. Next to Chris Archer, he is my favorite overall play on the mound this afternoon. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
NO RECOMMENDED PLAYS
Cincinnati
Joey Votto
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.x — ISO: .x — OBP: 0.x
Votto hits right-handers extremely well, and his power is on the upswing here in 2015. He is still a doubles machine, and he is one of my favorite cash game bats to target today.
Secondary Plays:
Todd Frazier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: .257 — OBP: 0.391
Brandon Phillips
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: .090 — OBP: 0.333
Baltimore at Cleveland – 1:10 PM EST
| Baltimore | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Bud Norris |  | Carlos Carrasco | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE -175 | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.278 | 0.814 | 0.358 | 18.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.199 | 0.542 | 0.245 | 26.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 0.673 | 0.299 | 19.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.635 | 0.278 | 27.10% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Bud Norris
Salaries: $6300 FD, $5200 DK
Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 25)
The Indians hit righties well, they don’t strike out often against them, and Bud Norris has a 9.88 ERA. Do I need to say anything else? He would be my 28th choice of the 30 pitchers going today, ahead of only the two fellows that get to toss baseballs at Coors Field. Rating = 1.5
Carlos Carrasco
Salaries: $9000 FD, $9500 DK
Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 22.9% (Rank: 4)
I could see today going a number of different ways for Carlos Carrasco. It would not surprise me in the least if he ended up being the highest scoring starting pitcher of the day. It also would not surprise me if the Orioles were able to knock him around a little bit, as their offense can be sneaky-good at times, even against RHP. Of course, the outcome could also fall somewhere in the middle. That being said, I really like Carrasco here. The Orioles are fourth-worst in the league in strikeout rate against RHP, Carrasco is racking up 10.35 K/9, and he has a very positive 2.70 xFIP so far this year. He is a decent cash game option and a fantastic tournament play. Rating = 8.5
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Manny Machado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: .213 — OBP: 0.330
Cleveland
Jason Kipnis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.x — ISO: .x — OBP: 0.x
Though a lot of the Cleveland bats are in good spots today, Kipnis takes the cake as my favorite. He is coming off a scorching month of May, and he has been fantasy baseball’s best second baseman to this point in the season. There is little reason to believe that will change against Bud Norris.
Secondary Plays:
Michael Brantley
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: .177 — OBP: 0.481
David Murphy
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: .143 — OBP: 0.392
Carlos Santana
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: .241 — OBP: 0.388
San Francisco at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM EST
| San Francisco | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | Ryan Vogelsong |  | Sean O’Sullivan | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SF -141 | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.285 | 0.835 | 0.365 | 19.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.364 | 1.186 | 0.493 | 12.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.217 | 0.660 | 0.294 | 18.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.633 | 0.279 | 12.70% |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SF vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Ryan Vogelsong
Salaries: $6600 FD, $6400 DK
Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.270 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 17)
Ryan Vogelsong has really turned a corner since a horrific April, allowing three earned runs or less in each of his last six starts. The good vibes should continue against the punchless Phillies, but Vogelsong’s upside is limited. He is not a high strikeout guy, and the Phillies don’t whiff much. A quality start is likely, but Vogelsong still doesn’t profile much better than a SP #2 for cash games only. Rating = 6.5
Sean O’Sullivan
Salaries: $5100 FD, $4200 DK
San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 26)
Sean O’Sullivan still has a rotation spot for the Phillies. That is somewhat remarkable, though they have had three or four guys get injured. No thanks. Rating = 2
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
Brandon Crawford
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: .185 — OBP: 0.327
Quietly, Brandon Crawford is having his best season with the bat. He also is available at the coveted shortstop position, which as I discussed earlier, is relatively horrific this year. He is no longer available at a super cheap price tag, but he should be a good option against the gas can that is Sean O’Sullivan.
Buster Posey
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: .170 — OBP: 0.374
Sure, we prefer Posey against left-handers. However, he is seeing the ball very well right now, and catcher is also a very difficult position to fill, especially on Sundays. Make sure Posey is in the Giants’ lineup today before locking him in.
Secondary Plays:
Brandon Belt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.411 — ISO: .255 — OBP: 0.394
Philadelphia
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Howard
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: .284 — OBP: 0.293