MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 17th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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San Francisco at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM EST
| San Francisco | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Chris Heston |  | Anthony DeSclafani | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN (-107) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.316 | 0.855 | 0.372 | 13.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.278 | 0.885 | 0.379 | 12.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.192 | 0.518 | 0.234 | 26.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.128 | 0.358 | 0.167 | 24.10% |
| Batter Splits | SF BvP | SF vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Heston – One bad pitch aside (a solo home run off the bat of Jason Castro), Heston was nearly perfect in his last outing, allowing just that one run on two hits and racking up 10 strikeouts in a complete game victory over the Astros. Like almost any young pitcher, he’s been inconsistent at times this season, but he’ll still bring a very impressive 2.91 ERA and 1.17 WHIP to the mound in Cincinnati. He’s currently producing a high percentage of groundball outs (54.3 GB%) and the 7.58 K/9 is acceptable. The Great American Ballpark is nowhere near as forgiving as AT&T Park, but Heston’s 3.13 xFIP suggests that he has some “staying power” making him a solid GPP target and worth consideration as a secondary arm on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7400 FD, $6200 DK
Anthony DeSclafani – DeSclafani started the season with three consecutive impressive outings, but he’s been nothing more than mediocre in the four starts since. On the surface, his 2.79 ERA and 1.19 WHIP are quite impressive, but his 4.53 xFIP and .238 BABIP both suggest that those numbers have been aided by some good fortune. He’ll take on a Giants team that own just a .309 team wOBA this season, but his 12 walks issued in the past three starts is a big concern and he doesn’t quite have the strikeout abilities to offset that risk. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $6000 DK
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Buster Posey – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.366 wOBA: 0.164 ISO: 141 wRC+
Brandon Belt – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.335 wOBA: 0.24 ISO: 120 wRC+
Hunter Pence – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.341 wOBA: 0.182 ISO: 123 wRC+
Cincinnati
Joey Votto – (LHB) – Votto has really cooled off at the plate, but he’s an on-base machine and we’ve never seen him slump for an extended period of time. Chris Heston has really struggled with left-handed batters (.371 wOBA) and Votto owns a .317 average and .978 OPS during his career against right-handed pitching.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.342 wOBA: 0.093 ISO: 116 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Billy Hamilton – (Switch) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.285 wOBA: 0.104 ISO: 77 wRC+
Jay Bruce – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.301 wOBA: 0.149 ISO: 88 wRC+
Atlanta at Miami – 1:10 PM EST
| Atlanta | Miami | ||||||||
 | Shelby Miller |  | Henderson Alvarez | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIA (-122) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.200 | 0.574 | 0.250 | 18.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.345 | 0.915 | 0.398 | 13.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.133 | 0.463 | 0.217 | 25.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.150 | 0.369 | 0.160 | 5.00% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Shelby Miller – Simply put, Shelby Miller has been very impressive thus far in Atlanta. The former first-round pick showed flashes of brilliance during his time with the Cardinals, but his inability to consistently find the strike zone led was a sticking point among St. Louis management and eventually the cause for his departure from the Gateway City. He sports a 4-1 record with a 1.60 ERA and 0.93 after seven starts, and while I do expect a nice bounce-back year from Mr. Miller, there are a few red flags here; 1) those control problems are still lingering as he’s already racked up 15 walks in 45 innings, 2) His .202 BABIP and 3.71 xFIP are both indicators that a regression is likely imminent, and 3) Struggles on the road have been an underlying theme during his young career. He’ll face a Miami team that posted a .318 wOBA at Marlins Park in 2014 and really hammered Shelby in their two meetings last season (8 earned runs and 20 baserunners in just 10.1 innings). His recent success makes him worthy of a play in all formats, but he’ll be a GPP only target for me. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $9200 FD, $8800 DK
Henderson Alvarez – After spending over a month on the DL with a shoulder problem, Alvarez will return today to take on the Atlanta Braves. Alvarez was terrific last season, posting a 12-7 record with a 2.65 ERA in 30 starts. Alvarez was nearly unhittable at Marlins Park last season where he owned a 7-2 record with a 1.60 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 14 home starts. With that said, we saw a huge dip in his fastball velocity in his two starts this season before heading to the DL and there’s always some added risk with guys in their first start off of the DL. He pitched admirably against the Braves when they met last night but his strikeout rate is far from ideal and this Braves team owns the league’s third-lowest strikeout rate (16.9%). Rating = 5
Salaries: $6600 FD, $6100 DK
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Freddie Freeman – (LHB) – Freeman enters today’s game sporting a .317 average and .904 OPS and is easily the most dangerous bat in this lineup with a right-hander on the mound for the Braves. Freeman has picked up at least one hit in 11 of his last 12 games and has punished Henderson Alvarez in their previous meetings; going 6 for 18 with three doubles and a home run.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.388 wOBA: 0.188 ISO: 150 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Nick Markakis – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.332 wOBA: 0.135 ISO: 111 wRC+
Miami
Giancarlo Stanton – (RHB) – It’s safe to say that Stanton’s bat has come alive as the slugger has smacked four home runs (nearly five) over the last four games. He posted a .391 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and has a .441 wOBA at Marlins Park. He’s also already taken Shelby Miller deep twice in just nine previous meetings.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.391 wOBA: 0.262 ISO: 150 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Christian Yelich – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.334 wOBA: 0.116 ISO: 112 wRC+
Dee Gordon – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.31 wOBA: 0.09 ISO: 99 wRC+
Milwaukee at NY Mets – 1:10 PM EST
| Milwaukee | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Wily Peralta |  | Noah Syndergaard | ||||||
| RIGHT | Right | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-126) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.326 | 0.932 | 0.395 | 13.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.125 | 0.917 | 0.379 | 16.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.272 | 0.749 | 0.328 | 16.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.357 | 0.928 | 0.396 | 28.60% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Wily Peralta – Peralta stumbled out of the gates this season, but he’s rebounded nicely and has now pitched very well in each of his last four starts. Peralta broke out for the Brew Crew in 2014, picking up 17 wins and finishing the season with a very respectable 3.53 ERA. Peralta has shown improved command this season and continues to force a large number of ground-ball outs, but his strikeout numbers remain uninspiring (5.60 K/9) despite his ability to reach the mid-90’s with his fastball. Left-handers are his kryptonite, but he was able to successfully navigate his way through this Mets lineup in both meetings last season, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in their two meetings. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7000 FD, $7900 DK
Noah Syndergaard – Syndergaard is one of the brightest prospects in the Mets organization and gave New York fans plenty to be optimistic about before finally getting into trouble during the 6th inning of his MLB debut on Tuesday. He’ll say goodbye to Wrigley Field and head to Citi Field which ranked as the third most pitcher friendly ballpark in MLB last season to battle the struggling Milwaukee Brewers. Syndergaard posted a 1.82 ERA in five starts at AAA this season prior to his promotion and has used his upper-90’s fastball to amass terrific strikeout numbers at every level he’s pitched. He’s just 22 years old and will undoubtedly hit some roadblocks at the MLB level, but he’s an excellent GPP option today. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7000 FD, $6900 DK
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Adam Lind – (LHB) – Syndergaard is a promising young pitcher, but Lind is always a nice value whenever a right-hander is on the mound against him. Lind owns a .306 average and .987 OPS against right-handed pitching thus far in 2015 and owned an impressive .410 wOBA against righties last season.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.41 wOBA: 0.179 ISO: 164 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Braun – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.335 wOBA: 0.169 ISO: 110 wRC+
Carlos Gomez – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.368 wOBA: 0.187 ISO: 133 wRC+
Scooter Gennett – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.346 wOBA: 0.157 ISO: 118 wRC+
NY Mets
Lucas Duda – (LHB) – We haven’t seen much power from Duda this season (just three home runs) but this is a guy who smacked 30 home runs in 2014 while posting a .394 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Lefties have smacked Wily Peralta around for a .394 wOBA and Duda is locked into the #3 spot in this Mets order.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.394 wOBA: 0.27 ISO: 158 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Curtis Granderson – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.316 wOBA: 0.159 ISO: 105 wRC+
Daniel Murphy – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.328 wOBA: 0.12 ISO: 113 wRC+
Arizona at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM EST
| Arizona | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | Josh Collmenter |  | Sean O’Sullivan | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| ARI (-120) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.333 | 0.849 | 0.364 | 10.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.353 | 1.303 | 0.535 | 5.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.274 | 0.838 | 0.353 | 14.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.196 | 0.564 | 0.257 | 15.70% |
| Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Josh Collmenter – Collmenter struggled in his first few starts this season, but it seemed like he was gaining momentum. Well, that momentum came to a crashing end as his last outing will likely go down as one of the worst starting pitching performances of the 2015 season. He was blasted for nine earned and only recorded four outs against the Nationals and saw his ERA skyrocket to 5.27 on the season. His 28.1 LD% is the fourth-highest among qualified pitchers this season and his 4.61 K/9 is not a fantasy asset. He’s a better pitcher than his numbers indicate and this Phillies lineup is not threatening in the least, but I’ll be avoiding him in all formats today. Rating = 3.5
Salaries: $6400 FD, $5600 DK
Sean O’Sullivan – A home matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks is usually enough to “move the needle” a bit, but not when we’re talking about Sean O’Sullivan. O’Sullivan brings a 5.06 ERA into today’s start against the Diamondbacks, which sadly is in improvement from his career 10-19 record, 5.89 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. He hasn’t been impressive in any capacity at the MLB level and possesses very little strikeout ability. I’m avoiding him in all formats and I advise you to do the same. Rating = 2
Salaries: $5400 FD, $5000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
Paul Goldschmidt – (RHB) – Goldie home run last night and now sports a .341 average and 1.100 OPS on the season. He’s not cheap (and not facing a lefty) but O’Sullivan is not pitching at an MLB level and Goldschmidt is easily the most dangerous hitter in this Arizona lineup.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.386 wOBA: 0.249 ISO: 144 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Ender Inciarte
David Peralta – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.369 wOBA: 0.194 ISO: 132 wRC+
Philadelphia
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Howard – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.292 wOBA: 0.132 ISO: 84 wRC+
LA Angels at Baltimore – 1:35 PM EST
| LA Angels | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Garrett Richards |  | Mike Wright | ||||||
| RIGHT | |||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BAL (0) | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.167 | 0.506 | 0.231 | 23.0% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.159 | 0.497 | 0.251 | 22.2% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | ANA BvP | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Garrett Richards – Richards wasn’t great in his 2015 season debut, but he’s been terrific in the five starts since. He’ll enter tonight’s game against the Baltimore Orioles on the heels of his best outing thus far where he allowed just one run (for the third straight game) over 6.2 innings and fanned 10 Astros. Richards utilizes his upper-90’s fastball to rack up strikeouts (24.2 K% last season) as well induce a ton of ground-ball outs (53.8 GB%). The matchup tonight in Camden Yards against a powerful Orioles lineup is far from ideal, but much of the risk here is offset by Richards massive upside. Rating = 7
Salaries: $9200 FD, $9700 DK
Mike Wright – Mike Wright will draw his first career MLB start today for the Orioles. The 25-year-old has been solid at AAA Norfolk this season where he posted a 3-0 record with a 2.64 ERA and 8.80 K/9 in six starts. However, He was quite hittable for them last season (4.61 ERA) and he only last 3.2 innings in his last start. This Angels lineup looks menacing on paper, but Los Angeles sports just a .282 team wOBA this season. However, the jump from AAA to MLB is huge and Wright should only be considered a GPP play today. Rating = 4
Salaries: $3000 FD, $4000 DK
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
Mike Trout – (RHB) – Right-handed batters owned a .318 batting average off of Mike Wright at the AAA level last season, and Mike Trout is arguably the best right-handed batter on the planet. Trout hit his 10th home run of the season last night and now owns a .300 average and .976 OPS on the young season.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.404 wOBA: 0.283 ISO: 168 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Kole Calhoun – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.348 wOBA: 0.19 ISO: 129 wRC+
Albert Pujols – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.347 wOBA: 0.201 ISO: 129 wRC+
Baltimore
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Chris Davis – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.312 wOBA: 0.199 ISO: 97 wRC+
Adam Jones – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.31 wOBA: 0.165 ISO: 95 wRC+
Manny Machado – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.352 wOBA: 0.165 ISO: 125 wRC+