MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 17 - Page Two
Toronto at Houston – 2:10 PM EST
| Toronto | Houston | ||||||||
 | Mark Buehrle |  | Collin McHugh | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| HOU (-140) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.348 | 0.916 | 0.399 | 0.083 | SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.607 | 0.269 | 0.211 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.339 | 0.913 | 0.388 | 0.109 | SP vs. Right | 0.278 | 0.82 | 0.358 | 0.188 |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Mark Buehrle – Buehrle has pitched fairly well in each of his last two starts, but there just isn’t a ton to like about him from a fantasy perspective. He’ll take the mound at Minute Maid Park owning an unsightly 5.54 ERA and 1.69 WHIP through his first seven starts. While he’s a better pitcher than those numbers may indicate, the 4.19 K/9 is just too hard to ignore (and overcome). He’s picked up double-digit wins in 14 straight seasons, but he’s been way too hittable this season and isn’t a recommended option even against a strikeout-prone Houston team. Rating = 4
Salaries: $7400 FD, $5500 DK
Collin McHugh – After a very impressive start to the 2015 season, McHugh has run into some trouble in each of his last three starts and his once sub 2.00 ERA has now “ballooned” to 3.50. McHugh seemingly came out of nowhere last season to rack up an 11-9 record with a terrific 2.73 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 25 starts and, while repeating those numbers seems like a stretch, he’s proving to be a very capable starter for the Astros. He relies heavily on keeping hitters guessing with a high percentage of off-speed pitches, but has still managed to post very nice strikeout numbers (25.4 K% in 2014). This will be a very stiff test for McHugh as the Blue Jays posted MLB’s second highest team wOBA (.331) against right-handed pitching last season and their lineup is loaded with dangerous bats. Rating = 5
Salaries: $8600 FD, $7500 DK
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Edwin Encarnacion – (RHB) – Edwin was slated for some rest yesterday, but entered the game as a pinch hitter and promptly smacked his ninth home run of the season. Encarnacion has now racked up five home runs and nine RBI’s over the last eight games. Right-handed batters own a .357 wOBA off of McHugh this season and Encarnacion posted a .392 wOBA and .291 ISO against righties last season.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.392 wOBA: 0.291 ISO: 152 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Jose Bautista – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.387 wOBA: 0.227 ISO: 148 wRC+
Josh Donaldson – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.324 wOBA: 0.149 ISO: 110 wRC+
Russell Martin – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.382 wOBA: 0.17 ISO: 148 wRC+
Houston
Jose Altuve – (RHB) – With a lefty on the mound against the Astros, Altuve becomes the #1 option of the day at 2B. Last year’s batting champ brings a .331 average into today’s game and has posted a .462 average and 1.168 OPS against southpaws this season and posted a .440 wOBA against them last season.
2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.44 wOBA: 0.151 ISO: 189 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
George Springer – (RHB) – 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.342 wOBA: 0.194 ISO: 121 wRC+
Evan Gattis – (RHB) – 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.419 wOBA: 0.271 ISO: 171 wRC+
Chris Carter – (RHB) – 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.37 wOBA: 0.274 ISO: 140 wRC+
Tampa Bay at Minnesota – 2:10 PM EST
| Tampa Bay | Minnesota | ||||||||
 | Chris Archer |  | Kyle Gibson | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-127) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.211 | 0.52 | 0.235 | 0.316 | SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.639 | 0.288 | 0.085 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.184 | 0.57 | 0.264 | 0.283 | SP vs. Right | 0.256 | 0.74 | 0.329 | 0.103 |
| Batter Splits | TB BvP | TB vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Archer – Archer bounced back from his only poor outing of the season to toss seven innings of two-run ball (with 8 strikeouts) against the Yankees on Tuesday. Archer enters tonight’s game with a 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP and his 2.69 xFIP suggests that his success be taken very seriously. He’s armed with a fastball that can reach the upper 90’s and his ability to mix in a nasty slider has resulted in a ton of groundballs while still posting 10.73 K/9 thus far in 2015. His 72.1 contact % is among the games elite and the matchup against an unintimidating Minnesota lineup is a plus. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8900 FD, $8000 DK
Kyle Gibson – A 3.99 xFIP over 31 starts in his first full season in the big leagues and a fairly productive spring had Minnesota management hopeful that Gibson could develop into a nice pitching option in 2015, but even they must be surprised by his early season success. If you ignore his fairly awful 2015 debut (6 earned runs in just 3.2 innings at Detroit) then Gibson sports a Cy Young-esque 3-1 record with a 1.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his last six starts. With that said, his 4.85 xFIP is screaming “regressssssssion” and the 3.83 K/9 is atrocious. The home matchup against the Rays is nice, but Gibson is only on my radar as a secondary arm on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6400 FD, $6300 DK
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Kevin Kiermaier – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.362 wOBA: 0.218 ISO: 139 wRC+
Evan Longoria – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.304 wOBA: 0.143 ISO: 99 wRC+
Minnesota
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Brian Dozier – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.335 wOBA: 0.161 ISO: 114 wRC+
NY Yankees at Kansas City – 2:10 PM EST
| NY Yankees | Kansas City | ||||||||
 | Chris Capuano |  | Edinson Volquez | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| KCR (-130) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.186 | 0.561 | 0.252 | 0.202 | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.578 | 0.27 | 0.173 | ||||
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | KC BvP | KC vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Capuano – Capuano will come off the DL to start for the Yankees today against the Royals, but there’s not much reason to take notice. The veteran left-hander posted a 4.35 ERA last season, but relies heavily on his off-speed pitches. This Kansas City lineup owns a .337 wOBA this season and their 14.4% strikeout rate is easily the lowest in MLB. Capuano is savvy enough to have a nice game, but he’s not the most exciting fantasy option. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $5700 FD, $4700 DK
Edinson Volquez – Volquez revitalized his career last season as the 31-year-old posted an impressive 13-7 record with a 3.04 ERA in 31 starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Royals were happy to reward him for that success and signed him to a two-year/$20 million contract in the offseason and based on the early season results, they look to have found a bargain. Volquez sports a very solid 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through his first seven starts in Royal Blue and is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his four starts at Kauffman Stadium. However, his xFIP since the beginning of last season sits at 4.19 and this left-handed heavy Yankees lineup owns a .321 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and blasted Volquez in their only meeting in 2014. Rating = 5
Salaries: $8200 FD, $5900 DK
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Brett Gardner – (LHB) – Gardner had the day off yesterday, but should return to the #2 spot in this Yankees lineup today. Gardner owns a .874 OPS (with four stolen bases) during the month of May and posted a .340 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.34 wOBA: 0.197 ISO: 116 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Jacoby Ellsbury – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.312 wOBA: 0.137 ISO: 97 wRC+
Mark Teixeira – (Switch) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.32 wOBA: 0.199 ISO: 102 wRC+
Kansas City
Lorenzo Cain – (RHB) – With a hit last night, Cain extended his hitting streak to four games and has picked up six RBI’s during that stretch. He owns a .404 batting average and 1.081 OPS this season against left-handed pitching and is locked into the #3 spot in this Royals lineup.
2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.362 wOBA: 0.157 ISO: 133 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Salvador Perez – (RHB) – 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.277 wOBA: 0.12 ISO: 74 wRC+
Alcides Escobar – (RHB) – 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.342 wOBA: 0.129 ISO: 119 wRC+
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM EST
| Pittsburgh | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | A.J. Burnett |  | Jake Arrieta | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (0) | 0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.183 | 0.547 | 0.253 | 0.159 | SP vs. Left | 0.197 | 0.513 | 0.243 | 0.3 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.283 | 0.653 | 0.289 | 0.242 | SP vs. Right | 0.24 | 0.63 | 0.268 | 0.245 |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
A.J. Burnett – Simply put; Burnett has been terrific thus far in 2015. The 38-year-old right-hander has yet to allow more than two runs in a start and now owns a 1.60 ERA and 1.16 WHIP after seven starts. He’s had a very productive career and has clearly shown he has plenty left in the tank, but I spot a few red flags here; 1) His 87.7 LOB% is unsustainable which, along with his 3.40 xFIP, signals that a regression is likely, 2) his 90.6 MPH average fastball velocity is easily the lowest of his career, and 3) this is a guy who went 8-18 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.41 WHIP last season in Philadelphia. This is a dangerous Cubs lineup that he’ll face, but the fact that they strike out more often than any other team in MLB this season against right-handed pitching (25.7 K%) lands Burnett as a nice GPP target. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $8400 FD, $8500 DK
Jake Arrieta – Arrieta stumbled a bit to open the month of May, but certainly got back on track in his last start where he allowed just one run over eight innings and struck out ten Mets to pick up his fourth win of the season. 2014 was the breakout season for Arrieta as the right-hander posted a 10-5 record with a 2.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 9.59 K/9 in his first full season in the National League. So far in 2015, his 2.73 xFIP and 9.60 K/9 are nearly identical to the 2014 campaign and Arrieta looks poised to be one of the best starters in the National League once again. He was absolutely dominant at Wrigley Field last season; posting a 6-1 record with a 1.46 ERA, 0.79 WHIP in 12 home starts. He cruised to a very easy victory against these Pirates earlier this season and the only thing holding him back from a higher rating is a fear of that wind. Rating = 7
Salaries: $9900 FD, $9500 DK
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
No Elite Plays (note: the wind blowing out shifts the guys below much closer to the elite range)
Secondary Plays:
Andrew McCutchen – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.415 wOBA: 0.225 ISO: 170 wRC+
Starling Marte – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.361 wOBA: 0.17 ISO: 134 wRC+
Neil Walker – (Switch) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.364 wOBA: 0.222 ISO: 135 wRC+
Chicago Cubs
Kris Bryant – Bryant reached base in all four plate appearances yesterday and now owns a six-game hitting streak. The phenom owns a .425 OBP on the season and has hit four home runs and picked up 11 RBI’s over the last eight games.
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Rizzo – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.391 wOBA: 0.253 ISO: 149 wRC+
Dexter Fowler – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.333 wOBA: 0.116 ISO: 114 wRC+
Chris Coghlan – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.362 wOBA: 0.186 ISO: 130 wRC+
Cleveland at Texas – 3:05 PM EST
| Cleveland | Texas | ||||||||
 | Carlos Carrasco |  | Nick Martinez | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-137) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.19 | 0.523 | 0.226 | 0.355 | SP vs. Left | 0.206 | 0.544 | 0.242 | 0.106 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.333 | 0.931 | 0.397 | 0.225 | SP vs. Right | 0.267 | 0.709 | 0.317 | 0.106 |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Carlos Carrasco – The good news; the command issues that plagued Carrasco during his first few seasons in the big leagues are a thing of the past (2.04 BB/9 this season). The bad news; he can be EXTREMELY effective when pitching outside of the strike zone. His 37.9 O-Swing % (percentage of pitches out of the strike zone that batters swing at) is the fifth best among qualified pitchers this season. Carrasco may own an unsightly 4.84 ERA and 1.33 WHIP on the young season, but his .371 BABIP is destined to improve and a 2.47 xFIP ranks him among the elite pitchers in MLB. His inconsistencies make him a somewhat risky cash game option, but the Texas Rangers own just a .290 team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and Carrasco’s upside is massive. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8600 FD, $8100 DK
Nick Martinez – Nick Martinez brings a 1.88 ERA and 1.16 WHIP into today’s game against the Indians, but I can’t for the life of me figure out how he’s doing it and his advanced stats (4.76 xFIP) imply that his success won’t be long lasting. Even considering his hot start to the 2015 season, there’s just not much to like about Martinez here. His 3.98 K/9 is dreadful and this Cleveland team hung eight earned runs on him in just two innings of work last season. Martinez was just 1-7 with a 5.24 ERA in 10 home starts last season and I have a feeling that today’s the day we start to see things fall apart for the 24-year-old. Rating = 3.5
Salaries: $6700 FD, $5100 DK
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Jason Kipnis – (LHB) – Left-handed batters posted a .366 wOBA off of Nick Martinez last season and Jason Kipnis owns a .418 average and 1.097 OPS this season against right-handed pitching. He owns an eight-game hitting streak and is now hitting .517 with a 1.419 OPS during the month of May.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.318 wOBA: 0.117 ISO: 106 wRC+
Michael Brantley – (LHB) – Brantley is one of my favorite options in the OF today as he posted a .401 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and owns a .348 average and .989 OPS on the young season.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.401 wOBA: 0.197 ISO: 164 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Santana – (Switch) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.34 wOBA: 0.195 ISO: 121 wRC+
Brandon Moss – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.336 wOBA: 0.213 ISO: 118 wRC+
Texas
Shin-Soo Choo – (LHB) – Choo picked up three more hits in yesterday’s game (including a triple and a home run) and now owns an .887 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He has hits in 15 of the last 16 games and is now hitting .362 during the month of May.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.329 wOBA: 0.14 ISO: 105 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Prince Fielder – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.301 wOBA: 0.078 ISO: 86 wRC+
Adrian Beltre – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.366 wOBA: 0.16 ISO: 131 wRC+