MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 3rd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Philadelphia at Miami
| Philadelphia | Miami | ||||||||
 | Severino Gonzalez |  | Jarred Cosart | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIA (-180) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.684 | 0.312 | 15.30% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.658 | 0.293 | 14.80% | ||||
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | MIA vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Severino Gonzalez – At one point in his MLB debut, it looked like Gonzalez’ ERA was going to surpass his weight. That, folks, is not a good thing. The Cardinals smacked him around for seven earned runs on ten hits (2 walks) before Gonzalez was finally yanked after 2.2 innings of “work”. While better results are surely coming his way, Gonzalez owned an uninspiring 4.59 ERA at AA Reading last season without much strikeout upside. The matchup against the Marlins isn’t a terrible one, but there’s not much to like about Gonzalez at this point in his career. Rating = 2.5
Salaries: $5100 FD, $4000 DK
Jarred Cosart – Cosart was terrific in his last start; tossing eight shutout innings against the Mets while only allowing a pair of hits. He’ll enter today’s game against this struggling Philadelphia offense sporting an impressive 2.49 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through four starts. He’s seemingly almost abandoned his curveball this season, and is heavily relying a mid-90’s fastball that is rating out as one of the best fastballs in MLB this year (2.39 wFB/C). Cosart forces a ton of groundballs and is in play as a secondary option on multi-pitcher sites, but his lackluster strikeout potential really holds him back from becoming a major factor in DFS baseball. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7400 FD, $6500 DK
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
Cosart isn’t overly intimidating, but no one on this Phillies offense has asserted themselves as an elite play this season.
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Howard: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.292 wOBA: 0.132 ISO: 84 wRC+
Chase Utley: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.333 wOBA: 0.144 ISO: 111 wRC+
Ben Revere: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.29 wOBA: 0.05 ISO: 82 wRC+
Miami
Giancarlo Stanton – Stanton walked away with the Golden Sombrero yesterday, but facing Cole Hamels is a completely different beast than squaring off against Severino Gonzalez. Stanton is hitting .435 with a pair of homeruns over the last week and posted a .391 wOBA and .262 ISO against right-handed pitching last season. His .441 wOBA and .325 ISO at Marlins Park last season is just icing on the cake.
Secondary Plays:
Editor’s Note: Dee Gordon and Martin Prado are not in the lineup Sunday
Martin Prado: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.297 wOBA: 0.108 ISO: 84 wRC+
Dee Gordon: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.31 wOBA: 0.09 ISO: 99 wRC+
Toronto at Cleveland
| Toronto | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Drew Hutchison |  | Trevor Bauer | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-127) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.811 | 0.353 | 21.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.728 | 0.324 | 23.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.222 | 0.615 | 0.273 | 25.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.744 | 0.329 | 19.80% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Drew Hutchison – After coughing up six earned runs with five free passes and ZERO strikeouts in his last outing, I’d definitely start to be growing concerned if I were in the Blue Jays front office. Hutchison showed plenty of promise last season, posting a 3.82 xFIP and 8.97 K/9 in his first full season at the MLB level. However, three of his five starts thus far in 2015 have been duds and he now sports a 6.67 ERA and 1.52 WHIP after 27.0 innings. Lefties owned a.353 wOBA off of Hutchison last season and this Indians lineup is loaded with guys who swing the bat from the left-side of the plate. His strikeout potential makes him a viable GPP candidate, but he won’t sniff my cash game rosters today. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $6400 FD, $5600 DK
Trevor Bauer – With three dominant starts in a row to open the season, the momentum behind the Bauer-Train slowed down a bit after a subpar outing against the Royals in his last outing. While Kansas City does happen to be the hardest team in MLB to strikeout, many DFS’ers will likely be scared away by the fact that Bauer only picked up a pair of strikeouts in that meeting. Bauer gives up a ton of fly balls which concerns me today against a dangerous Blue-Jays lineup but this Toronto team strikes out in bunches and that, coupled with his potentially low ownership rate, makes him an ideal GPP target. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8300 FD, $7900 DK
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
The usual suspects are nice GPP options, but when Bauer is on he can be filthy.
Secondary Plays:
Jose Bautista: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.387 wOBA: 0.227 ISO: 148 wRC+
Edwin Encarnacion: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.392 wOBA: 0.291 ISO: 152 wRC+
Devon Travis
Cleveland
Michael Brantley – Lefties posted a .353 wOBA off of Hutchison last season and Brantley crushed right-handed pitching for a .401 wOBA last season. Brantley struggled out of the gates this season but has picked up 16 hits over his last 9 games and owned a .353 batting average at Progressive Field last season.
Secondary Plays:
Jason Kipnis: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.318 wOBA: 0.117 ISO: 106 wRC+
Brandon Moss: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.336 wOBA: 0.213 ISO: 118 wRC+
Washington at NY Mets
| Washington | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Doug Fister |  | Dillon Gee | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-107) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.690 | 0.306 | 15.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.719 | 0.321 | 12.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.618 | 0.273 | 13.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.711 | 0.315 | 20.40% |
| Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Doug Fister – Fister has his way with the Phillies in back-to-back starts to open the 2015 season, but he’s been dinged for four earned runs in each of his last two outings. Fister was sensational last season, posting a 16-6 record with a 2.41 ERA in 25 starts, but his xFIP of 3.85 suggested a slight regression was imminent and his diminished fastball velocity this season raises another red flag.With that said, Fister mowed down this New York Mets lineup last season; posting a 3-0 record with a 0.89 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 20.1 innings. He’s not going to strike many batters out, but he’s a fine play on sites that doesn’t heavily weight the “K”. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8000 FD, $7300 DK
Dillon Gee – Breaking down Dillon Gee is fairly straight-forward; he’s a good, but certainly not great pitcher. Gee enters today’s game owning a 3.92 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 6.48 K/9 during his career, and that’s about what you should expect from every time he takes the mound. He was excellent in his last start but has yet to pick up a win this season and the 5.33 K/9 just doesn’t get anyone too excited. While he’s been better at Citi Field over the past few seasons, this Washington lineup tagged him in their two meetings last season and Gee really struggled down the stretch in 2014; posting a 3-7 record with a 5.10 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 13 second half starts. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $6500 FD, $7000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Bryce Harper – Harper has been held hitless in each of the last two games, but I’m expecting him to break out of this little mini-slump. Harper owned a .338 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and has had success off of Gee in the past (7 for 19 with a pair of homeruns)
Secondary Plays:
Jayson Werth: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.366 wOBA: 0.162 ISO: 134 wRC+
Denard Span: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.353 wOBA: 0.125 ISO: 125 wRC+
NY Mets
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Lucas Duda: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.394 wOBA: 0.27 ISO: 158 wRC+
Wilmer Flores: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.327 wOBA: 0.15 ISO: 112 wRC+
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
| Tampa Bay | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Nate Karns |  | Wei-Yin Chen | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-102) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.267 | 0.671 | 0.298 | 16.90% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.746 | 0.326 | 17.80% | ||||
| Batter Splits | TB BvP | TB vs L | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Nate Karns – Karns has had a bit of a roller-coaster type season to start 2015 as the right-hander is alternating between nice starts and disastrous ones. He’ll bring a 4.76 ERA and 1.24 WHIP into today’s “road” game (at his home stadium in Tampa) against a very dangerous Baltimore Orioles lineup. Karns has flashed elite strikeout potential throughout the minor leagues and owns 49 strikeouts through his first 52.1 innings at the Big League level. His inconsistencies and early season struggles with his command make him a very risky cash game option, but there’s enough upside to give him a look in GPP’s. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $6500 FD, $5500 DK
Wei-Yin Chen – After picking up 16 wins last season, Chen has yet to secure a “W” yet this season. However, if he keeps pitching like he did in his last outing against the Red Sox, plenty will come his way. Chen sports an impressive 2.78 ERA and 1.06 WHIP after four starts this season and has a nice matchup against a Rays team that owned just a .307 team wOBA against left-handed pitching last season. Chen doesn’t strike many batters out (17.6 K% last season) and his early season command problems are a bit of a concern, but he’s still a viable option as a secondary arm on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7200 FD, $7100 DK
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria – Longo owns a .292 average and . 922 OPS against left-handed pitching during his career and has crushed them once again to start 2014. He’s 8 for 25 with three doubles and three walks off of Chen during his career.
Secondary Plays:
Desmond Jennings: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.296 wOBA: 0.222 ISO: 141 wRC+
Baltimore
Chris Davis – “Crush” has come alive at the plate and now has hits in 6 of his last 7 games (with three home runs). He’s one of the most powerful left-handed bats in MLB these days and this matchup is terrific as he’s already taken Karns deep once in their four previous meetings.
Secondary Plays:
Jimmy Paredes: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.303 wOBA: 0.132 ISO: 91 wRC+
Manny Machado: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.352 wOBA: 0.165 ISO: 125 wRC+
Cincinnati at Atlanta
| Cincinnati | Atlanta | ||||||||
 | Johnny Cueto |  | Julio Teheran | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN (-137) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.194 | 0.561 | 0.257 | 23.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.687 | 0.301 | 18.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.190 | 0.585 | 0.261 | 26.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.218 | 0.587 | 0.262 | 23.40% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Johnny Cueto – After throwing the second-most pitches in MLB during the 2014 season, Cueto is showing no ill-effect thus far in 2015. He’s pitched at least seven innings in each of his five starts and owns a highly impressive 1.95 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 38 strikeouts in 37 innings. This Atlanta team posted just a .290 team wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and Cueto blew them away in their only meeting; tossing eight innings of shutout baseball while striking out 11 batters. He’s a top-tier option in all formats. Rating = 9
Salaries: $10600 FD, $11000 DK
Julio Teheran – Let’s start with the good here; 1) Teheran has posted two very impressive seasons to start his career and, at just 24 years old, should still be developing, 2) He was brilliant at Turner Field last season where he owned a 6-4 record with a 2.11 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 16 home starts. and, 3) He blew away these Cincinnati batters last season; tossing 14 scoreless innings while only allowing just nine baserunners. Before you get too excited, here’s the bad news; Something just looks wrong with Teheran this season. He owns a 4.67 ERA and 1.56 WHIP through his first five starts and both his walk rate and home run rate have shot through the roof. It could be a sign of trouble ahead, or it could just be a small blip in the radar of what may ultimately be another impressive season, but with Johnny Cueto opposing him today I’m taking a wait-and-see approach. Rating = 5
Salaries: $8100 FD, $8100 DK
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
Joey Votto – With Teheran struggling, Votto is a rock solid cash game option at 1B. He’s on on-base machine (.425 OBP) and owned a .342 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season.
Secondary Plays:
Jay Bruce: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.301 wOBA: 0.149 ISO: 88 wRC+
Billy Hamilton: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.285 wOBA: 0.104 ISO: 77 wRC+
Todd Frazier: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.355 wOBA: 0.195 ISO: 125 wRC+
Atlanta
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Freddie Freeman: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.388 wOBA: 0.188 ISO: 150 wRC+
Nick Markakis: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.332 wOBA: 0.135 ISO: 111 wRC+
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