MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 3rd - Page Two
Seattle at Houston
| Seattle | Houston | ||||||||
 | J.A. Happ |  | Roberto Hernandez | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| HOU (-101) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.873 | 0.379 | 0.214 | SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.745 | 0.333 | 0.094 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.744 | 0.327 | 0.193 | SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.738 | 0.323 | 0.191 |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
J.A. Happ – Happ has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his first three starts this season and now sports an impressive 2-1 record with a 2.30 ERA and 1.06 WHIP after four starts. He’ll take on a Houston team for the second time in as many weeks and will hope to duplicate the success he had against them in that previous start where he allowed just two runs in 7.1 innings. He fanned nine batters in his last outing and mowed down the Astros in their only meeting last season. Happ’s strikeout numbers won’t blow anyone away (7.58 K/9 in 2014) but they should see a nice boost against at the most strikeout prone team in MLB. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7300 FD, $7200 DK
Roberto Hernandez – Hernandez picked up his first win of the season in his last start and has somehow been rather effective thus far in 2015. He’s been forcing a ton of groundballs (57.5 GB%) and, while there’s still plenty of room for improvement, he’s starting to keep his BB% rate in check. Unfortunately for Hernandez, his .229 BABIP is destined for a regression and his historical struggles against left-handed batters should be on full display in this matchup against a left-handed heavy Mariners team. Hernandez is still quite susceptible to the long ball and I have a feeling that his nice start to the 2015 season comes to a fiery end this afternoon. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5900 FD, $5100 DK
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Robinson Cano – Lefties own a .352 wOBA off of Hernandez during his career and Cano posted a .382 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. He’s also 11 for 29 off of Hernandez (Carmona) in his career.
Secondary Plays:
Nelson Cruz: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.356 wOBA: 0.254 ISO: 128 wRC+
Kyle Seager: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.376 wOBA: 0.221 ISO: 147 wRC+
Seth Smith: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.357 wOBA: 0.186 ISO: 133 wRC+
Houston
Jose Altuve – If you’ve been living under a rock, you may have missed the message that Altuve hits left-handed pitching rather well. He posted an incredible .440 wOBA against lefties last season and his home run last night extended his current hitting streak to 11 games.
Secondary Plays:
Jake Marisnick: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.248 wOBA: 0.041 ISO: 109 wRC+
George Springer: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.355 wOBA: 0.194 ISO: 121 wRC+
Detroit at Kansas City
| Detroit | Kansas City | ||||||||
 | Anibal Sanchez |  | Jeremy Guthrie | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| DET (-111) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.218 | 0.562 | 0.251 | 0.213 | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.651 | 0.29 | 0.178 | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | Batter Splits | KC BvP | KC vs R | ||||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Anibal Sanchez – It’s probably not prudent to look at Sanchez’ 5.46 ERA and assume he’s been ineffective this season, as an implosion against the White Sox in which he coughed up nine earned runs is drastically skewing those numbers. His 3.66 xFIP this season is right in line with his numbers from 2014 and Sanchez still possesses elite strikeout potential (9.40 K/9). However, facing the Royals has not gone too well for most pitchers this season, as they own a .356 team wOBA and their 15.1 K% is the lowest in MLB. While Sanchez only allowed two earned runs against them in 14 innings of work last season, he also only managed to rack up three strikeouts. I’m expecting Sanchez to have a nice season in 2015, but I’m not overly eager to use him this afternoon. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8400 FD, $7600 DK
Jeremy Guthrie – Guthrie has allowed at least three earned runs in all four of his starts this season and brings an ugly 5.87 ERA and 1.52 WHIP into today’s game against this dangerous Detroit lineup. There’s simply not much to like here from a fantasy perspective as Guthrie offers very little strikeout potential. This Tigers lineup crushed him last season for a 7.71 ERA and 1.82 WHIP last year. Rating = 2
Salaries: $7100 FD, $5100 DK
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera – Miggy owned a .385 wOBA and .199 ISO against right-handed pitching last season and has gone 16 for 50 with three home runs in his career against Jeremy Guthrie.
Secondary Plays:
Ian Kinsler: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.317 wOBA: 0.146 ISO: 107 wRC+
Victor Martinez: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.39 wOBA: 0.322 ISO: 211 wRC+
J.D. Martinez: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.379 wOBA: 0.333 ISO: 176 wRC+
Anthony Gose: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.295 wOBA: 0.04 ISO: 28 wRC+
Kansas City
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Alex Gordon: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.345 wOBA: 0.154 ISO: 121 wRC+
Eric Hosmer: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.321 wOBA: 0.132 ISO: 105 wRC+
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
| Chicago White Sox | Minnesota | ||||||||
 | John Danks |  | Mike Pelfrey | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIN (-122) | 9 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.709 | 0.317 | 0.104 | SP vs. Left | 0.183 | 0.648 | 0.294 | 0.1 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.27 | 0.811 | 0.355 | 0.166 | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | CWS BvP | CWS vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
John Danks – His last start made me think I was in bizarro world as Danks, who strikes out no one, racked up eight strikeouts against a Kansas City team that strikes out at the lowest rate in MLB. Let’s not read too much into that start though, as Danks enters today’s game with an ugly 5.64 ERA and 1.34 WHIP after five starts. Danks is nothing more than an innings-eater at this point in his career and just simply is not worth fantasy consideration even considering a decent matchup against the Twins. Rating = 2.5
Salaries: $6500 FD, $5600 DK
Mike Pelfrey – Pelfrey has had some success to start the 2015 season thanks to his 57.7 GB%, but his .232 BABIP and 4.61 xFIP are solid indicators that he’s still a pitching option best left alone by fantasy standards. After posting a 15-9 record with an acceptable 3.66 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in his career-best 2010 season, Pelfrey owns a 14-29 record with a 4.83 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 74 starts since. His strikeout rate is one of the worst among starters in MLB and he’s an option for me in any format. Rating = 2
Salaries: $6300 FD, $4800 DK
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Adam LaRoche – Laroche owned a .384 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and has brutalized Pelfrey in their previous meetings, going 10 for 15 with two doubles and a home run.
Secondary Plays:
Jose Abreu: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.394 wOBA: 0.25 ISO: 153 wRC+
Conor Gillaspie: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.352 wOBA: 0.144 ISO: 124 wRC+
Adam Eaton: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.344 wOBA: 0.119 ISO: 118 wRC+
Minnesota
Brian Dozier – With Danks on the mound for the White Sox, Dozier shoots up my rankings at 2B. He posted a .351 wOBA and .203 ISO against left-handed pitching and is 4 for 13 with a double and a home run off of Danks.
Secondary Plays:
Trevor Plouffe: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.326 wOBA: 0.152 ISO: 120 wRC+
Torii Hunter: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.33 wOBA: 0.151 ISO: 124 wRC+
Pittsburgh at St. Louis
| Pittsburgh | St. Louis | ||||||||
 | Vance Worley |  | Michael Wacha | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL (-152) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.25 | 0.666 | 0.297 | 0.158 | SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.581 | 0.266 | 0.184 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 0.691 | 0.304 | 0.186 | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.687 | 0.306 | 0.235 |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Vance Worley – For a guy who sported a 2.85 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 110.2 innings last season, there just isn’t much love for Worley by fantasy baseball standards. Worley was knocked around a bit by the Cubs in his last start and brings a mediocre 4.50 ERA and 1.54 WHIP into today’s game against the Cardinals. Worley is not a high strikeout guy (6.42 K/9 in 2014) and didn’t fare too well when he met the Cardinals last season. With his repertoire basically limited to just two pitches, he’s a very risky option against this Cardinals lineup that has been rolling lately. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6900 FD, $6600 DK
Michael Wacha – With Adam Wainwright out for the season, the Cardinals are leaning on Wacha to become their new “ace” and appears ready for the task. Wacha has won each of his first four starts this season and brings a 2.42 ERA and 1.04 WHIP to the Busch Stadium mound this afternoon. Wacha has been brilliant during his brief career at Busch Stadium, posting a 9-1 record with a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 17 home starts. The matchup against a Pirates team that owned a .329 wOBA off of right-handed pitching last season is not ideal, but he’s still a solid option in all formats. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $8300 FD, $8400 DK
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Andrew McCutchen: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.415 wOBA: 0.225 ISO: 170 wRC+
Neil Walker: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.364 wOBA: 0.222 ISO: 135 wRC+
Starling Marte: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.361 wOBA: 0.17 ISO: 134 wRC+
St. Louis
Matt Carpenter – Carpenter was held hitless in a tough matchup against Francisco Liriano yesterday (although he did contribute with a walk and a walk off sac-fly), but he’s off to an incredible start to the 2015 season. Carp posted an impressive .343 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and brings a .366 average and 1.068 OPS into today’s game. It’s also worth mentioning that he’s 5 for 6 off of Worley in their previous meetings.
Secondary Plays:
Matt Adams: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.367 wOBA: 0.187 ISO: 137 wRC+
Kolten Wong: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.289 wOBA: 0.137 ISO: 83 wRC+
Matt Holliday: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.336 wOBA: 0.141 ISO: 115 wRC+
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
| Milwaukee | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | Jimmy Nelson |  | Jason Hammel | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (-160) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.271 | 0.805 | 0.353 | 0.17 | SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.691 | 0.305 | 0.199 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.307 | 0.781 | 0.349 | 0.197 | SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.671 | 0.297 | 0.239 |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jimmy Nelson – After dominating at the AAA level last season, Nelson deserved far better than his 2-9 record at the big league level would indicate as the 25-year-old posted a solid 3.92 xFIP over 69.1 innings with Milwaukee. Each of his last two starts were against the Cincinnati Reds, but their polar opposite results pretty much sum up Nelson’s young and inconsistent career. While this is a much more dangerous Chicago lineup than he’s faced in the past, he’s still more than capable of tossing a gem. That makes him an intriguing GPP option considering the likely low owndership rate that’ll likely come after being blasted in his last outing. However, I’m definitely not comfortable recommending him for cash game use. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6700 FD, $5900 DK
Jason Hammel – Hammel owned a 2.98 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with the Cubs prior to being shipped off to Oakland (where he struggled a bit) last season. However, after three mediocre starts to open the 2015 season, hopes of a repeat performance this season looked rather low. Well, that all changed after eight very impressive shutout innings against Pittsburgh earlier this week in Wrigley Field. Hammel was dominant at the Friendy Confines last season, posting a 4-1 record with a 2.35 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in seven starts. He also completely overwhelmed this Milwaukee team in two starts as tossed 14 scoreless innings and only allowed nine baserunners will striking out 15 batters. He’s worth consideration in all formats. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8200 FD, $7400 DK
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Adam Lind – Lind posted a .410 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and is hitting .324 with a .985 OPS off of them to start this season. Early indications are that the wind will be blowing out at Wrigley today and Lind certainly has the power to send the ball into those empty outfield seats
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Braun: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.335 wOBA: 0.169 ISO: 110 wRC+
Jean Segura: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.282 wOBA: 0.087 ISO: 74 wRC+
Chicago Cubs
Anthony Rizzo – Nelson has struggled against left-handed pitching during his young career, and Rizzo is the most dangerous lefty in this Cubs lineup. The 25-year-old posted a .391 wOBA and .253 ISO against right-handed pitching last season and homered in last night’s game.
Secondary Plays:
Chris Coghlan: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.362 wOBA: 0.186 ISO: 130 wRC+
Kris Bryant