MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-18 13:10:43

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.

Kansas City at Minnesota

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Vargas (FD: $7900, DK: $6700)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.71 / xFIP: 4.05 / SIERA: 4.14
K/9: 6.16 / K%: 0.162 / BB%: 0.052
MIN vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 14 / K% Rank: 21

Vargas pitched well in his first start of the season, striking out three batters while only giving up two runs in six innings of work. Vargas is not a high-strikeout pitcher, but he does throw a lot of strikes, which helps him keep his pitch count down. In 2014, he finished with a 4.05 xFIP and a K/9 of 6.2. He draws a fairly tough matchup against a Twins’ offense that has quite a few bats that hit left-handed pitching well. Vargas is a little overpriced for the upside that he offers against Minnesota. Rating = 5.5

Tommy Milone (FD: $6800, DK: $5500)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.19 / xFIP: 4.56 / SIERA: 4.57
K/9: 5.72 / K%: 0.145 / BB%: 0.071
KC vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 14 / K% Rank: 1

Milone looked sharp in his first start of the season. He struck out seven batters over seven scoreless innings of work. He only gave up four baserunners the entire game. He’s coming off of a disappointing 2014 campaign, but maybe Minnesota can resurrect his career the same way they did with Phil Hughes last season. Milone is worth monitoring moving forward, but he draws a difficult matchup against the Royals, who strike out fewer than any team in baseball. The Royals are also a team that hits left-handed pitching well. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Lorenzo Cain (FD: $3600, DK: $4600)

BA: 0.301 / wOBA: 0.33 / ISO: 0.110
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.157

Cain is one of the top plays in the outfield in both the early games and in the all-day leagues. He finished 2014 with a .362 wOBA and a .157 ISO against left-handed pitching and he has the unique combination of speed and power. He draws a favorable matchup against Tommy Milone, who gave up a .339 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season.

Secondary Plays:

Salvador Perez (FD: $3800, DK: $4600) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.277 / ISO: 0.12

Kendrys Morales (FD: $3000, DK: $4700) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.291 / ISO: 0.142

Alcides Escobar (FD: $3200, DK: $4600) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.342 / ISO: 0.129

Minnesota

Brian Dozier (FD: $3200, DK: $4700)

BA: 0.242 / wOBA: 0.34 / ISO: 0.174
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 / ISO: 0.203

Dozier will likely be batting clean-up again in this game, which is great for his RBI potential. He has always hit left-handed pitching well and last season was no exception. In 2014, he had a .351 wOBA and a .203 ISO against southpaws. He has also racked up six hits in his last five games.

Secondary Plays:

Danny Santana (FD: $3400, DK: $3800) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.345 / ISO: 0.146

Torii Hunter (FD: $2700, DK: $3900) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.35 / ISO: 0.151

Kennys Vargas (FD: $2500, DK: $3400) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.264 / ISO: 0.087

Trevor Plouffe (FD: $2500, DK: $3800) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.343 / ISO: 0.152

Milwaukee at St. Louis

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Fiers (FD: $8100, DK: $8900)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.13 / xFIP: 3.15 / SIERA: 2.94
K/9: 9.54 / K%: 0.277 / BB%: 0.062
STL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 20 / K% Rank: 4

Fiers is a high-strikeout pitcher, but some scouts are a little concerned with his mechanics. The way I see it, as long as he is racking up the strikeouts, he can throw under-handed for all I care. He finished 2014 with a K/9 of 9.5, while striking out 27.7% of the batters that he faced. He got into a little bit of trouble in his first start of the season, giving up five runs in five innings of work. He was able to strike eight batters out though. Fiers has a high ceiling against the Cardinals, but they are typically a team that ranks near the bottom in K%. Rating = 6.5

John Lackey (FD: $7600, DK: $7900)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.82 / xFIP: 3.48 / SIERA: 3.64
K/9: 7.45 / K%: 0.197 / BB%: 0.056
MIL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 12 / K% Rank: 8

Lackey is cheaper than Mike Fiers and while he may not have the same strikeout potential, he has a greater chance of picking up the win. Lackey is installed as a -150 favorite in a game that features a total of 7.5 runs. Lackey was knocked around early in his first start, but he settled in after that, allowing four runs in six innings of work. He draws a favorable matchup against the Brewers, whose bats have been ice cold to start the season. The one concern here is that Lackey is a reverse splits pitcher that is facing a right-hand heavy lineup. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Braun (FD: $3800, DK: $4600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.335 / ISO: 0.169

Aramis Ramirez (FD: $3000, DK: $3400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.305 / ISO: 0.102

Adam Lind (FD: $3700, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.410 / ISO: 0.179

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter (FD: $4100, DK: $4200)

BA: 0.272 / wOBA: 0.339 / ISO: 0.103
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 / ISO: 0.104

Carpenter is off to a quick start this season. He is 8-for-25 with six of those hits coming in his last three games. He posted a .343 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and he’s a hitter that rarely strikes out. He will make Mike Fiers work to get him out, rather than being an easy strikeout victim.

Secondary Plays:

Matt Adams (FD: $3400, DK: $3900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.367 / ISO: 0.187

Philadelphia at Washington

Pitcher Grind Down

Cole Hamels (FD: $9900, DK: $10000)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.46 / xFIP: 3.21 / SIERA: 3.29
K/9: 8.71 / K%: 0.239 / BB%: 0.071
WAS vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 8 / K% Rank: 15

Hamels is making his third start of the season. He was roughed up in his first outing, but he bounced back nicely against the Nationals, striking out five batters over seven innings of work. He gets to turn around and face the same Nationals team on Thursday, although this time he will be facing them in Nationals Park. Hamels still owns an elite strikeout rate, as he struck out 23.9% of the batters that he faced in 2014. He is a small favorite in this game, but the total is set at only 6.0 runs, so this game could turn into a pitcher’s duel. Rating = 7.5

Doug Fister (FD: $9000, DK: $7700)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.41 / xFIP: 3.85 / SIERA: 3.93
K/9: 5.38 / K%: 0.148 / BB%: 0.036
BOS vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 24

Fister is a pitcher that loves to work quickly. He is not someone that is there to waste time while he is on the mound. That tends to work in his favor, as it can take batters out of their rhythm. Fister finished 2014 with a 3.85 xFIP and a K/9 of 5.4. His strikeout numbers aren’t exactly where we want them to be, but he’s still a strong fantasy play, given his ability to pitch deep into games. Fister pitched six scoreless innings in his first start of the season and he faces a Phillies offense that is arguably one of the worst in the National League. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Chase Utley (FD: $3700, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.333 / ISO: 0.144

Cody Asche (FD: $2700, DK: $3700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.303 / ISO: 0.137

Washington

Ryan Zimmerman (FD: $3500, DK: $4100)

BA: 0.28 / wOBA: 0.346 / ISO: 0.168
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 / ISO: 0.135

Zimmerman is off to a slow start this season, batting 4-for-29. Three of those hits went for extra bases though. He has always hit left-handed pitching well, as he had a .343 wOBA and a .135 ISO against southpaws last season. He also has a decent track record against Cole Hamels, as he is 20-for-78 with 3 home runs off of him in his career.

Secondary Plays:

Ian Desmond (FD: $3800, DK: $4000) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.341 / ISO: 0.167

Wilson Ramos (FD: $3000, DK: $3400) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.355 / ISO: 0.150

Tampa Bay at Toronto

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Archer (FD: $8600, DK: $7500)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.33 / xFIP: 3.7 / SIERA: 3.8
K/9: 8 / K%: 0.211 / BB%: 0.088
TOR vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 2 / K% Rank: 7

Archer is coming off of a strong start against the Marlins, throwing seven shutout innings while striking out five batters. He’ll go from one of the better pitcher’s parks (Marlins Park) to one of the better hitter’s parks (Rogers Centre). The Blue Jays are not a team that I tend to target pitchers against, especially when they are at home. We saw the type of offensive fireworks that they can provide last night, as they put up 11 runs very quickly. Archer is overpriced for his matchup and is more risk than reward. Rating = 5.5

Aaron Sanchez (FD: $7000, DK: $5600)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 1.09 / xFIP: 3 / SIERA: 2.53
K/9: 7.36 / K%: 0.223 / BB%: 0.074
TB vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 2

In his first career start last week, Sanchez only lasted 3.1 innings. He gave up seven hits, three walks, and two earned runs against the Orioles. While he draws a better matchup on Thursday, he still has to face the Rays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Sanchez is a high-risk fantasy option that doesn’t provide the upside needed to overcome the risk. He can safely be avoided in all league types. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Desmond Jennings (FD: $3300, DK: $4300)

BA: 0.244 / wOBA: 0.313 / ISO: 0.134
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 / ISO: 0.105

I would typically like to load up on the left-handed bats against the right-handed Aaron Sanchez, but there really aren’t any lefties in the Rays’ lineup that peak my interest. Jennings hits from the right side, but he still hits right-handed pitching well. He also has decent pop in his bat and decent speed on the bases. He should be in line for some RBI opportunities, especially if he is batting fifth again.

Secondary Plays:

Evan Longoria (FD: $3700, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.304 / ISO: 0.143

Kevin Kiermaier (FD: $3000, DK: $4600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.218

Asdrubal Cabrera (FD: $3000, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.31 / ISO: 0.144

Toronto

Jose Reyes (FD: $3800, DK: $4600)

BA: 0.287 / wOBA: 0.321 / ISO: 0.111
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 / ISO: 0.115

Reyes is the top shortstop option in Tuesday’s short slate of games. He is a switch-hitter that hits well from both sides of the plate. He also has great speed and his stolen base potential goes up with a right-handed pitcher on the mound. Reyes is also affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Secondary Plays:

Jose Bautista (FD: $4700, DK: $4900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.387 / ISO: 0.227

Dioner Navarro (FD: $2600, DK: $3800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.120

Miami at NY Mets

Pitcher Grind Down

Jarred Cosart (FD: $7300, DK: $6600)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.69 / xFIP: 4.15 / SIERA: 4.36
K/9: 5.74 / K%: 0.15 / BB%: 0.095
NYM vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 11

Cosart only gave up one run in his first start of the season, but he also only struck out one batter. He’s not exactly a high-strikeout pitcher, but he did average 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings last season. Cosart draws a favorable matchup against the Mets in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Vegas has this game set as basically a pick ‘em with the total at 7.0 runs. Cosart is cheap enough to take a flier on in tournaments and he can also be used as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6

Dillon Gee (FD: $6900, DK: $7100)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4 / xFIP: 4.22 / SIERA: 4.3
K/9: 6.16 / K%: 0.165 / BB%: 0.075
MIA vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 15 / K% Rank: 28

Gee struggled in his debut against the Braves, giving up five earned runs in only five innings of work. Gee has always pitched better in the friendly confines of Citi Field though, and I expect him to bounce back on Tuesday. In his career, Gee has posted a 3.36 ERA with a K/9 of 6.2 at home. He draws a favorable matchup against the Marlins, who may be without one of their best hitters in Christian Yelich. If I had to choose between the two, I’d give Gee a slight edge over Cosart, but both are in play in this short slate of games. Rating = 6.5

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Dee Gordon (FD: $4200, DK: $4700)

BA: 0.289 / wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.089
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 / ISO: 0.090

Gordon hits right-handed pitching well, his stolen base potential goes up against right-handed pitching, and he is off to a great start this season batting 12-for-33. He draws a favorable matchup against Dillon Gee, who gave up a .321 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season.

Secondary Plays:

Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $5000, DK: $4800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.391 / ISO: 0.262

NY Mets

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Lucas Duda (FD: $3900, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.394 / ISO: 0.27

Daniel Murphy (FD: $3400, DK: $3900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.328 / ISO: 0.120

Curtis Granderson (FD: $3000, DK: $3700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.159

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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