MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 23rd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
| Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
 | Kyle Hendricks |  | Jeff Locke | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (-112) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.232 | 0.584 | 0.261 | 13.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.183 | 0.521 | 0.238 | 10.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.633 | 0.282 | 16.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.271 | 0.777 | 0.342 | 18.00% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs L | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Kyle Hendricks (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $7000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 2.69 — Strikeout Rate: 26.2% — Walk Rate: 2.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 53.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.92 — Strikeout Rate: 14.6% — Walk Rate: 4.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.8%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.274 (Rank: 25)
Strikoute Rate: 22.7% (Rank: 24)
Analysis: Hendricks has allowed seven earned runs in his first two starts of the season. He’s not a high-strikeout pitcher by any means, as he had a low strikeout rate of 14.6% last season. While he does keep his walks down, it doesn’t really help when you are giving up a lot of hits. He faces a Pirates’ offense that finally appears to be heating up after a slow start to the season. Hendricks is not a recommended play in the early slate of games.
Pitcher Rating: 53.4
Jeff Locke (FD: $7200, DK: $6700)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.53 — Strikeout Rate: 15.1% — Walk Rate: 1.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 58.1%
2014: xFIP: 3.90 — Strikeout Rate: 16.2% — Walk Rate: 7.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.5%
Chicago Cubs vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.346 (Rank: 15)
Strikoute Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 26)
Analysis: Locke has been sharp in his first two starts of the season, posting a 3.53 xFIP while producing a 58% ground ball rate. He has never been at the top of the league in strikeouts, but he can hold his own, as he had a 16.2% strikeout rate in 2014. He draws a strikeout-friendly matchup against the Cubs, who aren’t afraid to go down swinging. They are currently striking out at the fifth-highest clip against left-handed pitching. Locke is a serviceable SP2 in the early slate.
Pitcher Rating: 60.6
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Kris Bryant (FD: $3900, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
Since going 0-for-4 in his debut, Bryant has been on a tear. He is 9 for his last 18, recording 4 extra-base hits with 6 RBIs. His price has yet to reflect his recent level of production and he gets to face a left-handed pitcher in Jeff Locke, who gave up a .342 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate last season. Take Bryant at this price while you still can.
Secondary Plays:
Jorge Soler (FD: $3900, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.295 / ISO: 0.143
Pittsburgh
Josh Harrison (FD: $3100, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B/OF)
BA: 0.315 / wOBA: 0.365 / ISO: 0.175
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 / ISO: 0.184
Hendricks was fairly efficient against batters from both sides of the plate last season, but he did give up a considerably higher wOBA to right-handed hitters. Harrison actually has slightly better splits against right-handed pitching, as he posted a .363 wOBA and a .184 ISO last season. The Pirates’ offense is in a good spot today and their leadoff man is a strong play in at 3B.
Secondary Plays:
Pedro Alvarez (FD: $3300, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B/3B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.336 / ISO: 0.195
Gregory Polanco (FD: $3200, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.326 / ISO: 0.123
Miami at Philadelphia
| Miami | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | David Phelps |  | Dustin McGowan | ||||||
| RIGHT | |||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIA (-110) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.702 | 0.314 | 20.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.783 | 0.347 | 17.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.295 | 0.805 | 0.356 | 16.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.755 | 0.331 | 16.90% |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
David Phelps (FD: $5100, DK: $4400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 6.84 — Strikeout Rate: 11.1% — Walk Rate: 18.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 27.8%
2014: xFIP: 4.22 — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% — Walk Rate: 9.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.2%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.243 (Rank: 30)
Strikoute Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 23)
Analysis: Phelps only threw 75 pitches in his first start of the season, as he gave up one run to the Mets in 4.2 innings of work. Phelps would typically be a viable option at this price point, but I’m not sure how deep he will be able to pitch into this game. The Marlins will likely stretch him out a bit further today, but even if all goes well, he will likely see six innings at the most. He does draw a favorable matchup against the Phillies though, who are ranked dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating: 56.6
Dustin McGowan (FD: $5000, DK: $4000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 7.56 — Strikeout Rate: 8.6% — Walk Rate: 20.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.0%
2014: xFIP: 4.74 — Strikeout Rate: 17.2% — Walk Rate: 9.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 38.4%
Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.284 (Rank: 20)
Strikoute Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 27)
Analysis: McGowan will be making his first start of the season, after making a few appearances out of the bullpen. He hasn’t pitched more than two innings this year, which means he will likely be very limited in his first start. The matchup against the strikeout-happy Marlins is a favorable one, but unfortunately he isn’t going to pitch deep enough into this game to deserve fantasy consideration.
Pitcher Rating: 43.2
Batter Grind Down
Miami
Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $5000, DK: $5300)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
BA: 0.288 / wOBA: 0.403 / ISO: 0.267
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 / ISO: 0.262
Stanton is my top outfield play outside of Coors Field in the early slate of games. He is facing a fly-ball pitcher in a home-run friendly Citizens Bank Park. Stanton already has 7 extra-base hits this season and he is coming off of a 2014 season where he posted a .391 wOBA and a .262 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Secondary Plays:
Dee Gordon (FD: $4000, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility (FD: 2B, DK: 2B/SS)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.310 / ISO: 0.090
Martin Prado (FD: $2800, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 2B/3B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.297 / ISO: 0.108
Philadelphia
Cody Asche (FD: $2500, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
BA: 0.252 / wOBA: 0.308 / ISO: 0.139
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.303 / ISO: 0.137
Carlos Ruiz and Chase Utley are both out of the Phillies’ lineup today, which means Asche will move up and bat 3rd in the order. The move up the lineup only helps his appeal and he offers great value at $2,500 on FanDuel. Phelps has been a reverse-splits pitcher throughout his career, but he still gave up a .314 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season.
Secondary Plays:
Odubel Herrera (FD: $3000, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: 2B/OF)
Jeff Francoeur (FD: $2200, DK: $2500)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
NY Yankees at Detroit
| NY Yankees | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Masahiro Tanaka |  | Anibal Sanchez | ||||||
| RIGHT | |||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| DET (-120) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.237 | 0.632 | 0.280 | 22.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.218 | 0.562 | 0.251 | 21.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.687 | 0.302 | 30.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.651 | 0.290 | 17.80% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Masahiro Tanaka (FD: $8600, DK: $9600)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.13 — Strikeout Rate: 27.3% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.5%
2014: xFIP: 2.58 — Strikeout Rate: 26.0% — Walk Rate: 3.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.6%
Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.365 (Rank: 3)
Strikoute Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 10)
Analysis: This is a game that features two good pitchers, but both have to face two tough offenses. Tanaka is coming off of his best outing of the season, striking out eight batters in seven scoreless innings of work. He only gave up two hits in that start and he will look to build on that in today’s start against the Tigers. The issue here isn’t the pitcher, it’s the matchup. The Tigers are ranked third in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The strikeout potential is there, but Tanaka may be a little overpriced for his matchup.
Pitcher Rating: 64.1
Anibal Sanchez (FD: $8600, DK: $8100)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.82 — Strikeout Rate: 23.3% — Walk Rate: 5.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 29.4%
2014: xFIP: 3.56 — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% — Walk Rate: 5.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.7%
New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 9)
Strikoute Rate: 22.3% (Rank: 21)
Analysis: Sanchez has struggled in his last two starts, giving up a combined 17 hits and 14 earned runs in only 9.2 innings of work. He will look to bounce back at home against the Yankees, who dominated David Price last night. Sanchez has a high strikeout rate that’s typically around 20%, but he’s not coming into today’s game in the best form. I prefer Sanchez to Tanaka given the price differential between the two pitchers, but neither really stands out as a must start in the early slate of games.
Pitcher Rating: 66.5
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Jacoby Ellsbury (FD: $3800, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.137
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera (FD: $4700, DK: $4900)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B/3B)
BA: 0.313 / wOBA: 0.384 / ISO: 0.211
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.385 / ISO: 0.203
Cabrera is one of the best hitters in baseball, if not the best, full stop. He didn’t get to where he was by not being able to hit elite pitching. Even though Tanaka held right-handed hitters to a .304 wOBA last season, I don’t mind targeting Cabrera in this one. He finished 2014 with a .385 wOBA and a .203 ISO against right-handed pitching. It also helps that he is priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Secondary Plays:
Victor Martinez (FD: $3900, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility (FD: C, DK: 1B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.390 / ISO: 0.199
Anthony Gose (FD: $3300, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.295 / ISO: 0.074
Atlanta at NY Mets
| Atlanta | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Julio Teheran |  | Bartolo Colon | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-125) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.687 | 0.301 | 18.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.260 | 0.681 | 0.299 | 16.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.218 | 0.587 | 0.262 | 23.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.279 | 0.755 | 0.331 | 18.90% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Julio Teheran (FD: $8900, DK: $9200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.58 — Strikeout Rate: 17.8% — Walk Rate: 9.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.0%
2014: xFIP: 3.72 — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% — Walk Rate: 5.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 34.8%
New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 15)
Strikoute Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 2)
Analysis: My gut feeling is that the masses will see Teheran’s matchup against the Mets in Citi Field and immediately peg him as one of the top pitching options in the early slate of games. There are too many red flags for my liking though, the first of which is his price point. Teheran has shown bad command this season, walking 9.6% of the batters that he has faced. He is also facing an improved Mets’ offense that has struck out at the second-lowest rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season. Finally, Teheran tends to struggle away from his home ballpark. I’d rather take my chances with old man Colon on the opposite end of the diamond.
Pitcher Rating: 66.4
Bartolo Colon (FD: $8600, DK: $8400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 2.86 — Strikeout Rate: 23.7% — Walk Rate: 1.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.9%
2014: xFIP: 3.68 — Strikeout Rate: 17.9% — Walk Rate: 3.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.3%
Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 11)
Strikoute Rate: 17.9% (Rank: 6)
Analysis: When Bartolo Colon was announced as the opening day starter, he was basically a punch line until he came out and pitched a great game. He has already pitched 20 innings this season, holding his opponents to a combined five earned runs over three starts. Colon’s strikeout numbers have been up this season and while I don’t expect his 23.7% strikeout rate to last, I love the fact that he throws strikes. He only walked 3.6% of the batters that he faced last season and he has only given up one walk so far in 2015. The Braves do have a lot of left-handed hitters to throw at him, but he held batters from the left side of the plate to a .299 wOBA last season.
Pitcher Rating: 72.3
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Freddie Freeman (FD: $3800, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.388 / ISO: 0.188
Eric Young (FD: $2400, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.285 / ISO: 0.080
NY Mets
Lucas Duda (FD: $3900, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
BA: 0.253 / wOBA: 0.361 / ISO: 0.228
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 / ISO: 0.270
Duda is priced right where I like to see him at. While Citi Field isn’t the best hitter’s park in baseball, Duda’s cheap price tag more than makes up for it. Duda finished 2014 with a .394 wOBA and a .270 ISO against right-handed pitching. He has also had some success off of Julio Teheran in the past, going 7-for-20 against him with 4 extra-base hits.
Secondary Plays:
Curtis Granderson (FD: $3000, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.159
Cincinnati at Milwaukee
| Cincinnati | Milwaukee | ||||||||
 | Homer Bailey |  | Kyle Lohse | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN (-120) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.750 | 0.334 | 16.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.725 | 0.319 | 15.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 0.667 | 0.296 | 23.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.232 | 0.644 | 0.286 | 19.10% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Homer Bailey (FD: $8200, DK: $8200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 5.87 — Strikeout Rate: 0.0% — Walk Rate: 10.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 58.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.53 — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% — Walk Rate: 7.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.6%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.254 (Rank: 29)
Strikoute Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 25)
Analysis: Bailey gave up five earned runs in his first start of the season, but it was in a difficult matchup against the Cardinals in St. Louis. He draws a much better matchup today against the Brewers, who are ranked 29th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The Brewers also have the sixth-highest strikeout rate against righties. Bailey is a small favorite here and he should have the platoon advantage over a right-hand heavy Brewers’ lineup. He’s an intriguing play at this price point, but he still may be a little too risky to use in cash games.
Pitcher Rating: 61.6
Kyle Lohse (FD: $6300, DK: $6100)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.79 — Strikeout Rate: 13.5% — Walk Rate: 4.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.0%
2014: xFIP: 4.05 — Strikeout Rate: 17.3% — Walk Rate: 5.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.287 (Rank: 19)
Strikoute Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 14)
Analysis: Lohse has been awful this season, and by awful, I mean AWFUL. Through his first three starts, he has given up a combined 24 hits and 18 earned runs. His xFIP of 3.79 tells a different story than his ERA of 10.34, but I’m not taking a chance on him until he proves that he is back in good form. His strikeout rate isn’t high enough to overcome the risk attached to him after getting shelled in his first three starts of the season.
Pitcher Rating: 49.0
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
Joey Votto (FD: $4800, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
BA: 0.255 / wOBA: 0.359 / ISO: 0.155
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 / ISO: 0.093
As mentioned above, Kyle Lohse has gotten off to a rocky start this season. The Reds will look to capitalize on his struggles today in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. Votto has been red hot to start the season, batting 22-for-57 with 9 extra-base hits and 14 RBIs. He is one of the top options at first base in the early slate of games.
Secondary Plays:
Billy Hamilton (FD: $3800, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF/SS)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.285 / ISO: 0.104
Jay Bruce (FD: $3500, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.301 / ISO: 0.149
Zack Cozart (FD: $2800, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility (FD: SS, DK: SS)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.239 / ISO: 0.068
Milwaukee
Adam Lind (FD: $3200, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
BA: 0.321 / wOBA: 0.376 / ISO: 0.159
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.410 / ISO: 0.179
The Brewers may not have many left-handed bats in their lineup, but they do have Adam Lind batting clean-up. Lind mashed right-handed pitching last season to the tune of a .410 wOBA and a .179 ISO. He draws a favorable matchup against Homer Bailey, who gave up a .334 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate in 2014. The best part is that he is generously priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Braun (FD: $3600, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.335 / ISO: 0.169
Gerardo Parra (FD: $2200, DK: $3300)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.307 / ISO: 0.123