MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-11 23:05:33

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Pitcher Grind Down

A.J. Burnett (FD: $7400, DK: $8000)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.59 / xFIP: 3.95 / SIERA: 4
K/9: 8 / K%: 0.203 / BB%: 0.103
CIN vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 28 / K% Rank: 18

Analysis: Burnett is back in Pittsburgh, where he spent the 2012 and 2013 seasons. He had two of his best seasons as a member of the Pirates and he will look to get off to a hot start with the Buccos this year. Burnett is coming off of a mediocre season by his standards, posting a 3.95 xFIP with a K/9 of 8.0. He has always been a high strikeout pitcher, which is great for his fantasy appeal. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Reds in the Great American Ballpark. Burnett is a slightly above-average option in the early slate of games. Rating = 6.5

Anthony DeSclafani (FD: $6200, DK: $6200)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 6.27 / xFIP: 3.8 / SIERA: 3.7
K/9: 7.09 / K%: 0.178 / BB%: 0.034
PIT vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 3 / K% Rank: 14

Analysis: DeSclafani is a 25-year old right-handed pitcher that earned a spot in the Reds’ rotation by pitching well in the Spring. He struggled in his five starts last season, posting a 6.27 ERA while allowing his opponents to hit for a .303 batting average. His xFIP and SIERA were much lower than his ERA though, which suggest some bad luck or bad defense behind him. He draws a tough matchup against a Pirates’ offense that was ranked 3rd in wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. I’m giving the edge to A.J. Burnett in their matchup on the mound. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen (FD: $5000, DK: $5300)

BA: 0.314 / wOBA: 0.412 / ISO: 0.228
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.415 / ISO: 0.225

Analysis: McCutchen is known for his outstanding numbers against left-handed pitching, but he’s no slouch against right-handed pitching either. He finished 2014 with a .415 wOBA and a .225 ISO against right-handed pitching. McCutchen has both speed on the bases and power in his bat. He’s a premier outfield option in the early slate of games.

Secondary Plays:

Neil Walker (FD: $3500, DK: $4200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.364 / ISO: 0.222

Gregory Polanco (FD: $3300, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.326 / ISO: 0.123

Cincinnati

Joey Votto (FD: $3600, DK: $4600)

BA: 0.255 / wOBA: 0.359 / ISO: 0.155
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 / ISO: 0.093

Analysis: Votto is one of the best hitters in baseball. He’s a tough out every time he comes up to the plate. He draws a terrific matchup against A.J. Burnett, who gave up a .350 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season. Meanwhile, Votto hit right-handed pitching well, finishing the 2014 season with a .342 wOBA. Take advantage of his discounted price point, especially on FanDuel ($3,600).

Secondary Plays:

Jay Bruce (FD: $3700, DK: $4400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.301 / ISO: 0.149

Billy Hamilton (FD: $3700, DK: $4400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.285 / ISO: 0.104

NY Mets at Washington

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Harvey (FD: $9000, DK: $8800)

Pitching Stats (2013):

ERA: 2.27 / xFIP: 2.00
K/9: 9.6 / K%: .277 / BB%: .0045
WAS vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 9 / K% Rank: 21

Analysis: Harvey will be making his first start since his 2013 season. Mets fans have to be happy to have him back in the rotation. In 2013, he finished the season with a 2.00 xFIP and an elite K/9 of 9.6. He also had an elite walk rate, giving up free passes to only 4.5% of the batters that he faced. Harvey is expected to throw around 90 pitches in his first start, which does cap his upside a bit. That said, he still has great strikeout potential and he’ll be pitching in Nationals Parks, which is a pitcher-friendly ballpark. I’ll likely give him at least one start before targeting him in cash games, but he has tournament appeal right off the bat (pun). Rating = 7

Stephen Strasburg (FD: $10500, DK: $10500)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.14 / xFIP: 2.56 / SIERA: 2.64
K/9: 10.13 / K%: 0.279 / BB%: 0.05
NYM vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 11

Analysis: Strasburg is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball when he is on his game. He finished 2014 with a 2.56 xFIP and a K/9 of 10.1. He has had much better splits at home throughout his career. His xFIP is lower, while his strikeout rate is much higher at Nationals Park. Strasburg should come out of the gates firing on all cylinders. He draws a favorable matchup against a Mets’ offense that is average at best. Strasburg typically doesn’t throw much more than 100 pitches, but he could be in line for 6-8 strikeouts and possibly a win. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

David Wright (FD: $3400, DK: $4200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.283 / ISO: 0.094

Washington

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Bryce Harper (FD: $4300, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.338 / ISO: 0.144

Minnesota at Detroit

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson (FD: $6600, DK: $5600)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.47 / xFIP: 3.99 / SIERA: 4.18
K/9: 5.37 / K%: 0.141 / BB%: 0.075
DET vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 5 / K% Rank: 5

Analysis: Gibson is one of the many pitchers in baseball that will rarely, if ever, have a high level of ownership. He’s an average right-hand pitcher with a below-average strikeout rate. He finished 2014 with a 3.99 xFIP and a K/9 of only 5.4. Even worse is the fact that he has to face the Tigers in Comerica Park. The Tigers routinely rank near the top of the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching and wOBA at home. That’s not a great combination for Gibson. Rating = 3

Shane Greene (FD: $7000, DK: $6000)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.78 / xFIP: 3.4 / SIERA: 3.41
K/9: 9.27 / K%: 0.235 / BB%: 0.084
MIN vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 8 / K% Rank: 23

Analysis: Greene will be making his first start with the Tigers, after spending the 2014 season with the Yankees. Greene had a pretty impressive season, posting a 3.40 xFIP with an elite K/9 of 9.3. He had nearly a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio, which shows great command. While the Twins offense is better than most people give them credit for, Greene should have plenty of run support to help his cause. He’s very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he could be a cheap source to pick up a win. Rating = 6.5

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Joe Mauer (FD: $3300, DK: $4000)

BA: 0.277 / wOBA: 0.322 / ISO: 0.095
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 / ISO: 0.127

Analysis: Mauer is looking to bounce back, after a disappointing 2014 season. His numbers were down across the board, while he was striking out at a much higher rate than in previous years. He draws a favorable matchup against Shane Greene, who gave up a .345 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season.

Secondary Plays:

Kennys Vargas (FD: $2600, DK: $3800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.387 / ISO: 0.252

Danny Santana (FD: $3200, DK: $3900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.369 / ISO: 0.156

Detroit

Victor Martinez (FD: $4200, DK: $4500)

BA: 0.335 / wOBA: 0.411 / ISO: 0.23
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.39 / ISO: 0.199

Analysis: Martinez is the featured batter here, but don’t be afraid to load up on the Tigers’ bats. They have a terrific matchup against Kyle Gibson at home. Martinez is coming off of a terrific 2014 campaign where he had a .411 wOBA on the season. He has slightly better numbers against left-handed pitching, but a .390 wOBA against right-handed pitching is nothing to scoff at.

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Cabrera (FD: $4700, DK: $5200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.385 / ISO: 0.203

Ian Kinsler (FD: $4000, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.317 / ISO: 0.144

Yoenis Cespedes (FD: $4000, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.337 / ISO: 0.187

J.D. Martinez (FD: $3900, DK: $4400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.379 / ISO: 0.205

Cleveland at Houston

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Bauer (FD: $7400, DK: $7200)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.18 / xFIP: 4.14 / SIERA: 3.95
K/9: 8.41 / K%: 0.216 / BB%: 0.091
HOU vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 23 / K% Rank: 30

Analysis: Bauer is one of those pitchers that makes you hold your breath every time you roster him. He has a ton of upside, but he’ll have those awful outings every now and then. He finished 2014 with a 4.14 xFIP and a K/9 of 8.4. He draws a favorable matchup against the Astros, who love to swing at pitches outside of the zone. Bauer’s teammate Carlos Carrasco racked up ten strikeouts against the Astros last night. Bauer has good strikeout potential in this matchup, but Vegas is expecting a high-scoring game with the total set at 8.5 runs. Rating = 6

Asher Wojciechowski (FD: $6100, DK: $4900)

Pitching Stats (AAA):

ERA: 4.74
K/9: 6.99
CLE vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 7 / K% Rank: 10

Analysis: This will be Wojciechowski’s first major league start. He’s not an elite prospect by any means, as he has spent the last seven seasons in the minors. In 14 AAA starts last season, Wojciechowski posted a 4.74 ERA with a K/9 of 7.0. These numbers certainly don’t jump off the page and he gets the unfortunate task of facing an Indians’ lineup that consists primarily of left-handed hitters. Wojciechowski should be avoided in his major league debut. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Carlos Santana (FD: $3400, DK: $4300)

BA: 0.231 / wOBA: 0.353 / ISO: 0.196
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.34 / ISO: 0.195

Analysis: Santana hit his first home run of the season last night. He’ll look to keep it going against the rookie Wojciechowski. Santana has great power from both sides of the plate and he’ll likely have a few RBI opportunities batting clean-up. He is in play on all sites, but he specifically stands out on FanDuel ($3,400).

Secondary Plays:

Jason Kipnis (FD: $3700, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.318 / ISO: 0.117

Yan Gomes (FD: $3300, DK: $4200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.323 / ISO: 0.197

Houston

Jose Altuve (FD: $4300, DK: $4500)

BA: 0.341 / wOBA: 0.363 / ISO: 0.112
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.34 / ISO: 0.1

Analysis: Altuve is one of the few players that you can usually count on to give you some type of production. He’s a high on-base player that is always at the top of the league in steals. Altuve hits left-handed pitching a little better than he does right-handed pitching, but his opponent, Trevor Bauer, actually gave up a higher wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate last season.

Secondary Plays:

George Springer (FD: $4000, DK: $4600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.355 / ISO: 0.251

Luis Valbuena (FD: $2700, DK: $3800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.355 / ISO: 0.208

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City

Pitcher Grind Down

John Danks (FD: $6500, DK: $5700)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.74 / xFIP: 4.62 / SIERA: 4.64
K/9: 5.99 / K%: 0.151 / BB%: 0.087
KC vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 14 / K% Rank: 1

Analysis: Danks is coming off of a very disappointing 2014 season. He finished with a 4.62 xFIP and a K/9 of only 6.0. He doesn’t offer much upside in terms of strikeout potential, especially when we factor in his matchup against the Royals. In 2014, the Royals struck out fewer times than any other team in the majors. Danks can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4

Edinson Volquez (FD: $8300, DK: $6200)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.04 / xFIP: 4.2 / SIERA: 4.2
K/9: 6.54 / K%: 0.173 / BB%: 0.088
CWS vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 13 / K% Rank: 27

Analysis: Volquez will be making his first start as a member of the Royals. He had an up and down 2014 season, but he finished with a 4.20 xFIP and a K/9 of 6.6. Volquez hasn’t looked great in the Spring and he faces a very powerful White Sox lineup in his first start of the season. There are safer options for cash games and pitchers that have more upside for tournaments. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Adam Eaton (FD: $3000, DK: $3900)

BA: 0.300 / wOBA: 0.340 / ISO: 0.101
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.344 / ISO: 0.119

Analysis: Eaton is one of the top outfield plays in the early slate of games, especially on FanDuel at a price of only $3,000. He hits right-handed pitching well, he has decent power in his bat, and he draws a favorable matchup against Edison Volquez, who gave up a .321 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season.

Secondary Plays:

Jose Abreu (FD: $4600, DK: $4900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.394 / ISO: 0.25

Melky Cabrera (FD: $3000, DK: $4200) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.343 / ISO: 0.171

Adam LaRoche (FD: $3200, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.384 / ISO: 0.221

Kansas City

Lorenzo Cain (FD: $3200, DK: $4000)

BA: 0.301 / wOBA: 0.330 / ISO: 0.11
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.157

Analysis: Cain doesn’t get the recognition that he deserves. He hits for average, he has good power in his bat, and he’s very fast for a guy his size. He has been terrific against left-handed pitching, posting a .362 wOBA against lefties in 2014. He is coming off of a big game against the White Sox last night and he draws an even better matchup this time around. John Danks gave up a .355 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate last season.

Secondary Plays:

Salvador Perez (FD: $3400, DK: $3800) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.277 / ISO: 0.12

Kendrys Morales (FD: $3000, DK: $3700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.259 / ISO: 0.107

Alcides Escobar (FD: $3000, DK: $3900) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.342 / ISO: 0.129

Texas at Oakland

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Martinez (FD: $5900, DK: $5000)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.55 / xFIP: 5.24 / SIERA: 5.22
K/9: 4.94 / K%: 0.126 / BB%: 0.09
OAK vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 9 / K% Rank: 3

Analysis: Martinez had a rough 2014 campaign. It’s never a good sign when your xFIP is higher than your K/9. He only struck out 12.6% of the batters that he faced last season, while walking 9%. He has had a decent Spring, but it’s going to take more than that to target him in DFS. He draws a tough matchup against a very patient A’s offense that is very capable of producing high run totals. Martinez is not a great fantasy option. Rating = 4

Kendall Graveman (FD: $5000, DK: $5100)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.86 / xFIP: 1.68 / SIERA: 1.08
K/9: 7.71 / K%: 0.222 / BB%: 0
TEX vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 26 / K% Rank: 11

Analysis: Graveman will be making his first major league start on Thursday. He made five relief appearances last season, posting decent numbers. Obviously, that sample size is too small to carry any value. Graveman has looked great in Spring ball though, posting a 0.36 ERA with 17 strikeouts over 25 innings of work. He is a sizable favorite (-145) and he should see plenty of run support. He could be a very cheap source to get a win. He’s close to the minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Adrian Beltre (FD: $3900, DK: $4500)

BA: 0.324 / wOBA: 0.38 / ISO: 0.168
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 / ISO: 0.16

Analysis: You never really know what to expect from a pitcher making his first major league start. Graveman could easily come out and get knocked around by the Rangers. Beltre is a strong play here, as he posted a .366 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. Beltre hits for average and for power and his hitless streak isn’t going to last much longer.

Secondary Plays:

Prince Fielder (FD: $3800, DK: $4400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.301 / ISO: 0.078

Oakland

Ben Zobrist (FD: $3200, DK: $4100)

BA: 0.272 / wOBA: 0.333 / ISO: 0.123
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.118

Analysis: There is a lot to like about the A’s matchup against Nick Martinez. He doesn’t rack up many strikeouts and he has really struggled against batters from the left side of the plate. Last season, he gave up a .366 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Zobrist is one of the top second baseman in the early slate of games.

Secondary Plays:

Brett Lawrie (FD: $2800, DK: $3800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.336 / ISO: 0.177

Sam Fuld (FD: $2800, DK: $3500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.295 / ISO: 0.111

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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