MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 21st
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Houston at NY Yankees
| Houston | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Dallas Keuchel | Vegas Moneyline | Brandon McCarthy | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | NYY (-165) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.637 | 0.286 | 25.30% | SP vs. Left | 0.309 | 0.785 | 0.346 | 21.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.702 | 0.311 | 16.60% | SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 0.735 | 0.317 | 20.70% |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP  | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Dallas Keuchel – It’s a typical split schedule on tap Thursday. We’ll start with the 5 morning games and then jump into the 4 evening games. Over his last 2 starts, Keuchel has given up 8 earned runs while allowing 12 hits and 6 walks. He has produced one of the highest ground ball rates of any starting pitcher at 62% this season, but sometimes a ground ball pitcher just has to roll with the punches when the ball starts finding the holes in the infield. The Yankees make great contact as a team which really keeps their strikeout totals low. Keuchel can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7700 FD, $15300 DD, $6800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $15300 FTD
- Brandon McCarthy – McCarthy has really pitched well since coming over from the Diamondbacks. His peripheral stats have looked good all season, and his ERA is finally starting to follow. McCarthy has held opponents to 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts and gets to face a strikeout happy Astros team that has struck out at a 23% clip against RH pitching this season. McCarthy is a sizable favorite with nice K-potential. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $7200 FD, $14800 DD, $7600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $14800 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Houston
Jose Altuve – I think McCarthy pitches well today, but if you must target an Astros hitter, Altuve looks like the best option here. He is an on-base machine that has shown some decent power in his bat this season. He also has great stolen base potential and he plays a position that is void of many options.
Additional Plays: None
NY Yankees
Mark Teixeira – The Yankees don’t really have any LH pitching killers in their lineup, but Teix is a switch hitter that hits well from both sides of the plate. His price is down on both FD and DK and I never mind taking cheap clean-up hitters on teams that are projected to score a lot of runs.
Additional Plays: Martin Prado, Chase Headley
Detroit at Tampa Bay
| Detroit | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| David Price | Vegas Moneyline | Alex Cobb | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | DET (-117) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.659 | 0.292 | 24.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.206 | 0.584 | 0.263 | 21.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.638 | 0.281 | 28.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.692 | 0.314 | 24.30% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- David Price – Price heads back to Tampa Bay to face his former team for the very first time. It will likely be an emotional return for Price, but I’m sure that he would love nothing more than to come in and pitch a gem in front of his long-time fans. While the Rays do hit LH pitching well, Price is not your average lefty. Even if he gives up a couple of runs, he should still have a productive fantasy outing thanks to his ability to strike batters out. Price is averaging 9.9 K’s per 9 innings and is generating an 11% swinging strike rate which is his highest since 2008. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $11200 FD, $21500 DD, $12200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $21500 FTD
- Alex Cobb – Cobb is one of the better performers in daily fantasy baseball when he is pitching well. Over his last 5 starts, he has given up a combined 4 earned runs while striking out an impressive total of 40 batters. He has lowered his ERA to 3.19 on the season and his K/9 is right around 8.6. While the matchup against the Tigers isn’t ideal, Cobb’s cheap price tag puts him in play on multi-pitcher sites and in GPP’s. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8300 FD, $16000 DD, $8200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $16000 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Detroit / Tampa Bay
We have two terrific pitchers on the mound in this one. The total is only set at 6.5 runs and I have a feeling that this will be a pitcher’s duel. I’ll be avoiding hitters from both offenses.
Cleveland at Minnesota
| Cleveland | Minnesota | ||||||||
| Corey Kluber | Vegas Moneyline | Phil Hughes | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CLE (-139) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.684 | 0.302 | 26.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.642 | 0.282 | 22.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.212 | 0.523 | 0.234 | 28.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.308 | 0.765 | 0.334 | 21.00% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Corey Kluber – We have quite a few aces on the mound in the early slate of games which should make for a nice mix of pitchers in both cash games and GPP’s. Kluber is one of the aces on the bump. He is sporting a 2.41 ERA (2.69 xFIP) with a K/9 of 9.7. He has established himself as one of the best pitchers in the American League and I expect him to continue his dominant play today against the Twins who are right around the league average in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 8
Salaries: $10700 FD, $21400 DD, $10600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $21400 FTD
- Phil Hughes – Hughes has had an extremely up and down season. If you look at his numbers on a month to month basis, you’ll see what I’m talking about. For instance, he posted a 5.74 ERA in July and has since bounced back with a 1.33 ERA in the month of August. At this point, I wouldn’t use him outside of a GPP, especially against an Indians offense that is ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 4
Salaries: $8200 FD, $14000 DD, $7800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $14000 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Carlos Santana – Hughes has managed to keep LH hitters in check this season, but I’m not expecting a great outing from him against an Indians offense that mashes RH pitching. Santana doesn’t hit for a high average, but he hits for a lot of power and he also has a good eye at the plate as evidenced by his 38 walks on the season.
Additional Plays: Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley
Minnesota
Avoid all Twins today against Kluber who has held both LH and RH hitters under a .305 wOBA this season.
Arizona at Washington
| Arizona | Washington | ||||||||
| Wade Miley | Vegas Moneyline | Gio Gonzalez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | WAS (-185) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.725 | 0.323 | 19.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.662 | 0.299 | 27.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.736 | 0.322 | 22.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.694 | 0.311 | 24.50% |
| Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs L | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Wade Miley – Miley is also an inconsistent fantasy option in daily fantasy baseball. For instance, a few starts ago he followed up a 7 inning shutout performance against the Reds by giving up 10 earned runs to the Royals in his next start. Miley does possess good strikeout potential though (8.4 K’s per 9 innings) so he does carry some value as a tournament play. He should be avoided in cash games today against the Nats. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $14600 DD, $8100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $14600 FTD
- Gio Gonzalez – The biggest issue that I have with Gonzalez is that he walks way too many batters. He is currently giving up 3.7 walks per 9 innings. The walks have come back to haunt him on multiple occasions this season. That said, Gio is still averaging 9.7 K’s per 9 innings and he does draw a terrific matchup against a depleted Diamonbacks offense that is ranked 29th in wOBA over the last 30 days. Gonzalez should be in for 6+ quality innings with 6+ K’s and hopefully a win. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $8700 FD, $15600 DD, $9300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $15600 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
There aren’t any plays that stand out on the Diamondbacks today. Their offense has been ice cold so target the Gio side of this matchup.
Washington
Jayson Werth – Werth’s price is depressed on both FD and DK, but it’s likely to go up on both sites here soon so today may be the final day to take advantage of the discount. Werth has always hit LH pitching well and this season is no different as he has a wOBA over .400 against southpaws.
Additional Plays: Anthony Rendon, Ian Desmond
Atlanta at Cincinnati
| Atlanta | Cincinnati | ||||||||
| Julio Teheran | Vegas Moneyline | David Holmberg | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | ATL (-150) | LEFT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.680 | 0.301 | 18.4% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.222 | 0.598 | 0.268 | 25.0% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs L | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Julio Teheran – Teheran has dominated at home this season, but has posted pretty average numbers on the road. He owns a 4.27 ERA on the road this season while giving up a considerably higher batting average to opponents. That concerns me a bit as does the fact that he is a fly ball pitcher that will be playing in the very HR-friendly Great American Ballpark. His matchup against the Reds is favorable, but I think there are better options in the early slate today. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8500 FD, $18650 DD, $8700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $18650 FTD
- David Holmberg – Holmberg will be making his 3rd career start today against the Braves. He has posted pretty pedestrian numbers in the minor leagues this season (4.64 ERA with a K/9 of 5.1). We never really know what to expect with these young pitchers that get called up so your best bet is to take a wait and see approach with Holmberg, especially against a Braves offense that hits LH pitching well. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5000 FD, $9650 DD, $5700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Justin Upton – Upton has had much better home splits than road splits, but I’m going to overlook that today as he draws a very favorable matchup against a young lefty. Upton has mashed LH pitching to a tune of a .322 batting average and a .468 wOBA.
Additional Plays: Evan Gattis, Freddie Freeman
Cincinnati
Jay Bruce – Once again, Teheran is a fly ball pitcher and we all know that Great American Ballpark is a great park for HR’s. Bruce has already taken him deep once in only 6 career at-bats and makes a nice contrarian play in the OF today.
Additional Plays: Billy Hamilton