MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-09-02 23:17:41

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati

Chicago Cubs					Cincinnati
Jake Arrieta		Vegas Moneyline			Dylan Axelrod		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CHC (-123)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.217	0.604	0.270	28.00%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.192	0.500	0.225	24.20%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jake Arrieta – We have a split slate today with 3 early games and 6 evening games. If you are playing in the early slate, Arrieta looks to be the top fantasy option. He has been dominant this season with a 2.53 ERA and a K/9 of 9.2. He’s producing a career high 49% ground ball rate this season and he’s been terrific at keeping the ball in park as he has only giving up 0.36 HR’s per 9 innings. Today he is facing a Reds offense that is ranked 26th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $7900 FD, $14500 DD, $8800 DK, $NA FF, $26300 SS, $14500 FTD

• Dylan Axelrod – Axelrod will only be making his 2nd start of the season, so I will quote his numbers from last year. In 20 starts last season, Axelrod posted a 5.68 ERA with a K/9 of only 5.18. This game is basically set as a pick ‘em game so he is getting some love from the oddsmakers. While I do like the matchup against the Cubs (ranked 29th in wOBA vs. RH pitching), I think Arrieta is the much better play. That said, Axelrod is in play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $4200 FD, $10900 DD, $4200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Luis Valbuena – Axelrod gave up a .379 wOBA to LH hitters last season which makes Valbuena a great option today. Anthony Rizzo is out of the lineup again so that means Valbuena will bat clean-up. He has hit RH pitching well this season and has been swinging a hot bat with 12 hits (3 HR’s) over his last 10 games.

Additional Plays: Jorge Soler, Chris Coghlan

Cincinnati

Billy Hamilton – I’m not too high on the Reds offense as a whole, but Hamilton is in play thanks to his stolen base potential. He already has 50 stolen bases on the season and he’ll be very aggressive if he can manage to reach first safely.

Additional Plays: None

NY Yankees at Detroit

NY Yankees					Detroit
Hiroki Kuroda		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Lobstein		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYY (-122)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.252	0.698	0.308	14.2%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.250	0.686	0.304	18.6%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda is a pitcher that always gives the Yankees a chance to win. He’s likely going to give up a couple of runs, but he’s going to keep the game within striking distance. On the season he owns a 3.94 ERA with a K/9 of 6.1. He keeps his walks and his HR’s allowed down. The biggest issue with Kuroda today is his matchup. The Tigers are ranked 5th in wOBA vs. RH pitching and 2nd in wOBA at home. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $12850 DD, $7400 DK, $NA FF, $19300 SS, $12850 FTD

• Kyle Lobstein – Robbie Ray and Buck Farmar didn’t pitch well in their turns as the 5th starter, so the Tigers will give Lobstein a shot. He made his major-league debut (out of the bullpen) last week and gave up 3 earned runs over 5 and 2/3 innings. He has been a solid pitcher in the minors for a few years, but he hasn’t had the electric stuff that most people think he needs to be successful at the major-league level. The Yankees are a team that makes great contact and you saw what they did to David Price last night. I’m taking a wait and see approach with Lobstein. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury has really been swinging a hot bat. Over his last 10 games, he has 18 hits with 7 runs and 9 RBI’s. During that stretch his batting average has risen 15 points which is tough to do for everyday players at this point in the season. I love the matchup against the rookie Lobstein.

Additional Plays: Martin Prado, Mark Teixeira

Detroit

J.D. Martinez – You always want to target Martinez when he is hot and right now is one of those times. Over his last 10 games, he has 15 hits with 6 of those going for extra bases. He has 3 multi-hit games in his last 4 and should see some RBI opportunities batting 5th against Kuroda.

Additional Plays: Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera

Colorado at San Francisco

Colorado					San Francisco
Jordan Lyles		Vegas Moneyline			Yusmeiro Petit		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SFG (-182)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.267	0.831	0.364	13.4%	SP vs. Left	0.269	0.803	0.347	17.70%
SP vs. Right	0.225	0.637	0.288	21.1%	SP vs. Right	0.175	0.443	0.197	35.70%
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jordan Lyles – In his 4 starts since coming back from injury, Lyles has given up 14 earned runs while striking out 18 batters. He’s still having a better season than 2012 & 2013, but that’s not hard to do with the type of numbers that he put up those years. This season he is sporting a 4.05 ERA with a K/9 of 6.6. The Giants are only ranked 22nd in wOBA vs. RH pitching, but Lyles is a sizable underdog. I currently have him ranked as the 5th best option out of the 6 starters in the early slate. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6500 FD, $10950 DD, $6000 DK, $NA FF, $15500 SS, $10950 FTD

• Yusmeiro Petit – Petit has pitched well this season with a 3.59 ERA with a K/9 of 9.8. Looks great right? The problem is that most of his work this season has been out of the bullpen. He hasn’t thrown more than 60 pitches in a game since July 22nd. I am a bit concerned that he’ll only pitch 5-6 innings max. That said, he’s a huge favorite against a Rockies offense that is one of the worst in baseball in on the road. He’s probably your safest #2 pitcher in the early slate. Rating = 6

Salaries: $5200 FD, $9350 DD, $7200 DK, $ FF, $13000 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Corey Dickerson – Dickerson homered off of Hudson last night. He has been a great fantasy option all season long when he has faced a RH pitcher. He draws a pretty favorable matchup today against Petit who has given up a .347 wOBA to LH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Justin Morneau, Charlie Blackmon

San Francisco

Pablo Sandoval – Lyles has really struggled vs. LH hitters this season. He has given up a .364 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Pablo is a switch hitter, but he’s had much better numbers vs. RH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: Buster Posey

Tampa Bay at Baltimore

Tampa Bay					Baltimore
Jeremy Hellickson		Vegas Moneyline			Bud Norris		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BAL (-117)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.202	0.556	0.251	21.1%	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.710	0.315	17.00%
SP vs. Right	0.259	0.699	0.311	22.4%	SP vs. Right	0.250	0.713	0.318	20.50%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jeremy Hellickson – Hellickson owns a 2.61 ERA on the season, but I do expect some regression as his xFIP is more than a full run higher at 3.97. He is averaging 7.8 strikeouts per 9 innings and has kept his walks and his runs down. His off-speed pitches have really helped him keep batters confused at the plate this season and we’ve seen him shut down a few top offenses. While his matchup against the Orioles isn’t ideal, he makes a nice tournament play with his cheap salary. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $5500 FD, $11300 DD, $6500 DK, $NA FF, $18600 SS, $11300 FTD

• Bud Norris – Norris has been terrific at Camden Yards this season. He owns a 2.86 ERA at home with 42 K’s over 56 innings of work. He has held hitters from both sides of the plate in check this season by holding both LH and RH hitters under a .320 wOBA. He may not have the most upside, but the Rays are right around the league average in wOBA vs. RH pitching. If you are looking for a #2 pitcher on multi-pitcher sites, you can do worse than Norris. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7400 FD, $12950 DD, $7600 DK, $ FF, $21400 SS, $12950 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

James Loney – Norris has kept LH hitters in check this season, but has given up a career .349 wOBA to lefties. Loney is a great value option at 1B as he has really hit RH pitching well this season and has a nice track record against Norris (9/18 with 2 XBH’s).

Additional Plays: Ben Zobrist

Baltimore

Chris Davis – Davis has had a down year, but homered yesterday and draws a nice matchup against Hellickson tonight. Davis is 11/27 with 5 XBH’s off of Hellickson in his career. That’s a big enough sample size for me.

Additional Plays: Adam Jones

Atlanta at NY Mets

Atlanta					NY Mets
Mike Minor		Vegas Moneyline			Jonathon Niese		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		ATL (-120)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.354	0.937	0.409	18.5%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.271	0.795	0.348	20.6%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs L		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Mike Minor – Minor has pitched much better than his 4.90 ERA suggests. He has had some bad luck this season as evidenced by his xFIP of 3.73. Other than his ERA, he’s basically been the same pitcher that he was in 2013. I’m expecting him to finish the season strong and I think that starts tonight against a Mets offense that is ranked 28th in wOBA vs. LH pitching. The Mets also strike out at a 24% clip against lefties which should give his strikeout total a small boost. Dollar for dollar, he’s my favorite pitcher on the board tonight. Rating = 8

Salaries: $6800 FD, $12500 DD, $6900 DK, $NA FF, $15300 SS, $12500 FTD

• Jonathon Niese – Niese is always in play when he is pitching at home. He owns a 3.05 ERA at Citi Field this season while holding batters to a .246 batting average. He’s producing a 50% ground ball rate on the season and is averaging just over 6 K’s per 9 innings. While the Braves have a few bats in their lineup that are good against lefties, as a team they strike out at a 24% clip. The upside is there, but he’s probably not the safest cash game option. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7000 FD, $11400 DD, $6800 DK, $ FF, $17500 SS, $11400 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Justin Upton – Upton has mashed LH pitching this season. He is batting .326 with a .476 wOBA vs. southpaws. He has also had success off of Niese in the past going 9/17 with a double.

Additional Plays: Evan Gattis

NY Mets

Mike Minor is one of my favorite pitchers tonight. I’ll be avoiding all hitters against him.

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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