MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 18th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Toronto at NY Yankees
| Toronto | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| R.A. Dickey | Vegas Moneyline | Shane Greene | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TOR (-195) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.225 | 0.682 | 0.307 | 17.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.274 | 0.752 | 0.340 | 15.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.739 | 0.325 | 20.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.694 | 0.310 | 32.00% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP  | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- R.A. Dickey – Dickey often gets labeled as an inconsistent pitcher, but he has pitched at least 6 innings in 8 of his last 10 starts and has only given up more than 4 earned runs 2 times during that stretch. Dickey is sporting a 3.84 ERA (4.10 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.4. He does struggle with his command at times, but that can be expected from a knuckleball pitcher. Dickey pitched 6 scoreless innings in his first start against the Yankees this season and has great numbers against them in his career. The Yankees offense has been ice cold over the last 2 weeks and Dickey could serve as a nice contrarian play tonight. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $8000 FD, $16050 DD, $8400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Shane Greene – Greene is having an impressive rookie campaign, but he has hit a bit of a rough patch. Since the All-Star Break, he owns a pedestrian 4.12 ERA while giving up a .284 batting average to his opponents. He still has an elite strikeout rate of 9.2 batters per 9 innings, but draws an extremely tough matchup against the Blue Jays who are the best hitting team in baseball against RH pitching. Yankee Stadium isn’t the most pitcher-friendly ballpark and with his current form, he can be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4
Salaries: $7200 FD, $13200 DD, $7400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Jose Reyes – Reyes draws a nice matchup against Shane Greene who has given up a .340 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Reyes still has some pop in his bat (9 HR’s) and he is always a threat to steal a base as he has already stolen 27 on the season.
Additional Plays: Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista
NY Yankees
Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury is really the only active Yankees hitter with decent numbers against Dickey in his career. He’s 5/12 off of Dickey with a double and a stolen base. His bat has also been cold over the last 10 games, but it could be a nice spot to buy low on the speedy outfielder.
Additional Plays: Brian McCann
Boston at Pittsburgh
| Boston | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Brandon Workman | Vegas Moneyline | Gerrit Cole | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PIT (-210) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.261 | 0.756 | 0.337 | 18.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.747 | 0.333 | 21.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.706 | 0.311 | 16.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.250 | 0.722 | 0.321 | 23.60% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Brandon Workman – Workman will get the start for the Red Sox tonight. He’s had a disappointing season with a 5.27 ERA (4.25 xFIP). Workman is averaging 7.0 strikeouts per 9 innings, but is also giving up over 3 walks per 9. He has one of the toughest matchups on the board as he faces a Pirates offense that is ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Workman has limited upside and is a huge underdog. He can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5200 FD, $9650 DD, $5000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Gerrit Cole – Cole has given up 11 earned runs over his last 3 starts, but will look to get back on track tonight against the Red Sox. On the season, Cole owns a 3.92 ERA (3.54 xFIP) with an impressive K/9 of 8.5. Cole is producing a 49% ground ball rate this season and has posted some great splits at home. He could be in for a great outing tonight against the Red Sox who are ranked 20th in wOBA vs. RH pitching while striking out at a 21% clip. Expect 6-7 strong innings and win from Cole. Rating = 8
Salaries: $8200 FD, $16100 DD, $9200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Avoid all Red Sox tonight against Gerrit Cole. The Red Sox offense has struggled to score runs without David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia and Cole has really pitched well at home this season.
Pittsburgh
Neil Walker – Walker hit a HR last night and draws another solid matchup tonight against Brandon Workman who has given up a .337 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Walker draws most of his power from the left side and is a top option at 2B on a night with a shorter slate of games.
Additional Plays: Starling Marte, Russell Martin
Washington at Miami
| Washington | Miami | ||||||||
| Doug Fister | Vegas Moneyline | Brad Hand | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-170) | LEFT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.275 | 0.718 | 0.319 | 15.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.631 | 0.280 | 16.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 0.617 | 0.273 | 14.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.773 | 0.339 | 13.40% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs L | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Gio Gonzalez – Gio’s start was pushed a day so he will start tonight’s game against the Marlins. Gio is having a nearly identical season to 2013. He owns a 3.79 ERA (3.50 xFIP) with a K/9 of 9.1. His biggest issue is his command. Throughout his career he has given up a ton of walks and this season is no different as he is averaging 3.3 walks per 9 innings. That said, his strikeout potential against a Giancarlo Stanton-less Marlins lineup puts him in play. Rating = 6
Salaries: $ FD, $15500 DD, $8700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Brad Hand – Hand is not a recommended fantasy option tonight. He is a serviceable lefty, but has very limited upside with a strikeout rate of only 5.5 batters per 9 innings. The Nationals gave most of their everyday players the night off last night, but I’m expecting the starters to be back in the lineup tonight. As a team, the Nationals are ranked 8th in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5500 FD, $10100 DD, $5800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Anthony Rendon – We will have to wait and see what the Nationals lineup looks like tonight, but regardless of who is playing, the RH hitters in the lineup are all in play. Brad Hand is giving up a .339 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate this season. Rendon has a .361 wOBA against LH pitching this season.
Additional Plays: Jayson Werth
Miami
Avoid all Marlins hitters tonight against Gio Gonzalez who has held LH and RH hitters under a .305 wOBA this season.
LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
| LA Dodgers | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
| Zack Greinke | Vegas Moneyline | Tsuyoshi Wada | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | LAD (-158) | LEFT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.245 | 0.640 | 0.282 | 23.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.133 | 0.353 | 0.173 | 22.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.681 | 0.300 | 27.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.795 | 0.345 | 18.60% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LAD vs L | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Zack Greinke – Greinke doesn’t get the praise that he deserves thanks to his teammate Clayton Kershaw. Greinke has put together another terrific season with a 2.64 ERA (2.72 xFIP) with an impressive K/9 of 9.3. Greinke has kept his walks and HR’s down this season and owns an impressive 80.5 left on base percentage. Greinke has a fantastic matchup tonight against the Cubs who are ranked 27th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. The Cubs also strike out at a 23.4% clip against RH pitching. Greinke has great strikeout potential in this one and should pitch well enough to be in line for the win. Rating = 9
Salaries: $9900 FD, $20050 DD, $11200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Tsuyoshi Wada – The 33 year-old lefty is having a solid rookie season. He is sporting a 3.34 ERA (4.05 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.3. He’s not getting any love from Vegas though as he is a +170 underdog tonight against the Dodgers. Wada will likely see very little run support with Greinke on the mound. Even if he pitches well, he’ll likely get stuck with the loss. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6300 FD, $11950 DD, $7900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
Matt Kemp – Kemp has been one of the better hitters in the National League since the All-Star Break. He’s had a very nice 10-game stretch where he has racked up 11 hits, 10 runs, and 9 RBI’s. He also has the splits in his favor against Wada who has given up a .345 wOBA to RH hitters this season.
Additional Plays: Hanley Ramirez, Yasiel Puig, Scott Van Slyke
Chicago Cubs
Zack Greinke is one of the top pitching options tonight. You can safely avoid all Cubs hitters against him.
Cleveland at Houston
| Cleveland | Houston | ||||||||
| Danny Salazar | Vegas Moneyline | Scott Feldman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CLE (-128) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.245 | 0.704 | 0.314 | 25.50% | SP vs. Left | 0.274 | 0.732 | 0.321 | 13.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.283 | 0.793 | 0.345 | 23.80% | SP vs. Right | 0.267 | 0.754 | 0.333 | 15.00% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Danny Salazar – Salazar will be looking to continue the Indians pitching staff’s dominance over the Astros. Corey Kluber struck out 14 batters in the first game of the series and Carlos Carrasco struck out 12 last night. Salazar is a high strikeout pitcher (9.5 K’s per 9 innings) with a great strikeout matchup (Astros strike out at a 23% clip against RH pitching). Salazar’s biggest red flag is his command, but the Astros may help him out tonight as they tend to swing at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone. He’s a terrific upside play for the price. Rating = 7
Salaries: $7800 FD, $15300 DD, $7600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Scott Feldman – Feldman isn’t a terrible real life pitcher, but he’s not a recommended fantasy option. He has an average ERA (3.95) and a below average K/9 (5.4). The rest of his peripheral stats are all in that mediocre category. He’s an easy avoid tonight against the Indians who are ranked 7th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6800 FD, $11750 DD, $7000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Michael Brantley – Brantley is always in play when he is facing a mediocre RH pitcher. On the season he is sporting a .339 batting average with a .399 wOBA against righties. Target him tonight against Feldman in the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park.
Additional Plays: Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis
Houston
Chris Carter – The Astros bats have looked lost in this series, but I do like Carter as a tournament play tonight. Danny Salazar is a reverse splits pitcher who has given up a .345 wOBA to RH hitters. He has also given up 9 of his 13 HR’s to RH hitters. Carter has terrific multi-HR upside which makes him a nice tournament play.
Additional Plays: None
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