MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 25th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Milwaukee at Cincinnati
| Milwaukee | Cincinnati | ||||||||
| Yovani Gallardo | Vegas Moneyline | David Holmberg | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIL (-140) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.618 | 0.279 | 18.80% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.274 | 0.740 | 0.327 | 17.40% | SP vs. Right | 0.250 | 0.905 | 0.392 | 13.60% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP  | MIL vs L | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Yovani Gallardo – Gallardo has been a consistent fantasy pitcher all season long. He owns a 3.46 ERA (3.62 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.8. He is walking a career-low 2.5 batters per 9 innings and has produced a career high 52% ground ball rate. Today he faces a Reds offense that is ranked 27th in wOBA vs. right-hand pitching and 28th in wOBA over the last 30 days. Gallardo is a solid play in the early slate of games. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $7200 FD, $14200 DD, $8400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- David Holmberg – Holmberg pitched better than expected in his last outing. He only gave up two earned runs to the Cardinals over six innings of work. That said, he’s not a major prospect and he’s had an ERA close to 6.00 in his first five career starts. He should be avoided today against a right-hand heavy Brewers lineup in a HR-friendly ballpark. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5000 FD, $9650 DD, $5300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Jonathan Lucroy – The sample size is still extremely small, but David Holmberg has given up a .392 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate this season. Meanwhile, Lucroy has a .361 wOBA against left-hand pitching and sees a park boost in the HR-friendly Great American Ballpark.
Additional Plays: Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez
Cincinnati
Todd Frazier – Frazier is the only Reds bat that stands out in this one. Yovani Gallardo has given up a .325 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate and Frazier is a great source of both speed (20 SB’s) and power (28 HR’s).
Additional Plays: None
Seattle at Toronto
| Seattle | Toronto | ||||||||
| Tom Wilhelmsen | Vegas Moneyline | Daniel Norris | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SEA (-195) | LEFT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.158 | 0.491 | 0.220 | 14.4% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.166 | 0.544 | 0.245 | 30.3% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs L | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tom Wilhelmsen – Wilhelmsen is technically going to start today’s game, but this will be a bullpen start for the Mariners. Wilhelmsen will not pitch deep into this game and the Blue Jays will see the Mariners bullpen early. Wilhelmsen should be avoided in all leagues because even a perfect outing from him would only last 3-4 innings.. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5100 FD, $7500 DD, $5000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Daniel Norris – Norris has made four appearances out of the bullpen this season, but will get his first major-league start today against the Mariners. The young lefty has some electric stuff. Over his 12 starts in the minors this season, he posted strikeout rate of around 13.5 batters per 9 innings. While he is one of the Blue Jays top prospects, he hasn’t thrown more than 30 pitches in a game over the last three weeks. It’s probably best to take a wait and see approach with Norris. Rating = 4
Salaries: $4200 FD, $ DD, $5000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Robinson Cano – Even though Norris is a lefty, he gave up a much higher average and wOBA to left-hand hitters in the minors this season. Cano hits left-hand pitching well with a .297 batting average and a .337 wOBA this season.
Additional Plays: Kyle Seager, Austin Jackson
Toronto
Jose Bautista – It’s hard to gauge this matchup because the Blue Jays will likely see quite a few different pitchers. That said, Bautista is a solid play as he hits both left-hand and right-hand pitching well and is swinging a hot bat with 11 hits, 13 runs, and 6 RBI’s over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Jose Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion, Dioner Navarro
Philadelphia at Miami
| Philadelphia | Miami | ||||||||
| David Buchanan | Vegas Moneyline | Tom Koehler | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIA (-130) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.212 | 0.563 | 0.259 | 13.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.654 | 0.295 | 19.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.282 | 0.823 | 0.358 | 15.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.730 | 0.325 | 18.10% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- David Buchanan – Buchanan has put together a solid second half of the season. Since the All-Star Break, he has posted a 3.06 ERA while holding opponents to a .294 wOBA. He doesn’t have the highest strikeout rate (5.7 K’s per 9 innings), but you don’t need a lot of strikeouts from a pitcher at his price point. He draws a solid matchup against the Marlins who are ranked 19th in wOBA over the last 30 days while striking out at a 23% clip. He could be a decent #2 starter in the early slate. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6400 FD, $12450 DD, $6900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Tom Koehler – Koehler has some of the most glaring home/road splits in the majors. Luckily for him, he is pitching at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of Marlins Park. Koehler owns a 2.83 ERA at home this season while holding his opponents to a .283 wOBA. He has a respectable strikeout rate of 7.1 batters per 9 innings and a great matchup against the Phillies who are ranked 28th in wOBA against right-hand pitching this season. He’s a slightly better play than Buchanan. Rating = 6
Salaries: $6700 FD, $13250 DD, $7100 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
There really aren’t any plays that stand out on the Phillies today. Not only is their offense in a prolonged slump, but Tom Koehler has really pitched well at Marlins Park this season.
Miami
Christian Yelich – While Buchanan has given up some serious reverse splits this season, Yelich is still the top play on the Marlins. Yelich has a .341 wOBA against right-hand pitching and is a great cash game play thanks to his high floor.
Additional Plays: Casey McGehee
NY Mets at Washington
| NY Mets | Washington | ||||||||
| Zack Wheeler | Vegas Moneyline | Gio Gonzalez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-180) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.258 | – | 0.338 | – | SP vs. Left | 0.224 | – | 0.295 | – |
| SP vs. Right | 0.220 | – | 0.278 | – | SP vs. Right | 0.235 | – | 0.298 | – |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Zack Wheeler – Wheeler takes the mound tonight with a 3.49 ERA on the season and a K/9 of 9.0. It will be interesting to see the Nationals lineup tonight if they happen to lock up the #1 seed. Wheeler provides nice upside at an affordable price. Make sure to look at the Nationals lineup when it is posted and boost his rating a bit if the Nats sit a few starters. Rating = 6
- Gio Gonzalez – Gonzalez is having another productive season for the Nationals. He owns a 3.74 ERA (3.50 xFIP) with a K/9 of 8.9. Gonzalez does struggle with his command at times as evidenced by his BB/9 of 3.2. He has also struggled against the Mets this season. In 4 starts against New York, he has a 5.40 ERA which is a big concerning. That said, he should pitch well enough to be in line for the win and a decent outing. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
Wilmer Flores – Flores is a very sneaky play tonight. He’s quietly swinging a hot bat. Over his last 10 games, he has 13 hits (3 HR’s) and 10 RBI’s. The best part is that his price is still cheap across the industry.
Additional Plays: Travis d’Arnaud
Washington
If the Nationals have their everyday players in the lineup, Adam LaRoche and Bryce Harper are both in play tonight against Zack Wheeler who has given up a .338 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate.
Baltimore at NY Yankees
| Baltimore | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Kevin Gausman | Vegas Moneyline | Hiroki Kuroda | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYY (-135) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.726 | 0.324 | 17.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.258 | 0.699 | 0.308 | 15.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.659 | 0.292 | 19.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.649 | 0.287 | 20.10% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kevin Gausman – Gausman has posted at least 7 strikeouts in 3 of his last 4 starts. On the season he is boasting a 3.57 ERA (3.96 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.9. He has had problems with walks (3.1 per 9 innings) though and he draws a tough matchup against the Yankees in what will be Derek Jeter’s final game in Yankee Stadium. The baseball gods won’t allow the Orioles to mess up Jeter’s farewell right? Rating = 5
Salaries: $6500 FD, $NA DD, $7100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda is having another Kuroda-like season. He owns a 3.77 ERA (3.61 xFIP) with a respectable K/9 of 6.5. Kuroda always has great command and he has managed to keep his HR’s allowed down this season. While a matchup against the Orioles isn’t ideal, you have to think Kuroda and the Yankees will send Derek Jeter off with a win. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7600 FD, $ DD, $7900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Alejandro De Aza – De Aza should be in the lineup tonight as the Orioles are facing a right-hand pitcher and De Aza has terrific numbers off of Hiroki Kuroda in his career. He has gone 7/18 with 2 XBH’s against Kuroda in his career.
Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis
NY Yankees
Chase Headley – Gausman has given up a .324 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate and Headley has been swinging a hot bat with 9 hits (2 HR’s) and 9 runs over the last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, DEREK JETER
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