MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 21st - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-21 19:06:31

Atlanta at NY Mets

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Cahill (FD: $6400, DK: $5600)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 5.61 / xFIP: 3.83 / SIERA: 3.96
K/9: 8.54 / K%: 0.21 / BB%: 0.11

NYM vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 0.169 (Rank: 4)

Cahill was rocked in his first start of the season. He gave up four earned runs and eight baserunners in only 2.1 innings of work against the Marlins. He was expected to have a breakout season for the Braves this year though, so we shouldn’t lose all hope just yet. He has a great chance to bounce back tonight against the Mets in Citi Field. Cahill is a high-strikeout pitcher that is one of the cheapest pitching options available. The Mets have been able to keep their strikeouts down this season, but I like Cahill as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6

Jon Niese (FD: $8100, DK: $7500)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.4 / xFIP: 3.63 / SIERA: 3.78
K/9: 6.62 / K%: 0.176 / BB%: 0.057

ATL vs. LH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.266 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 0.215 (Rank: 19)

Niese is a strong play a night that doesn’t offer many big favorites. There are only four teams that are listed as at least -140 favorites tonight and the Mets are one of them. Niese finished 2014 with a 3.63 xFIP and a K/9 of 6.6. He tends to have good command, as evidenced by his walk rate of 5.7%. He has a favorable matchup at home tonight against the Braves, who are ranked 25th in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Rating = 7.5

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

NO ELITE PLAYS

Additional Plays:

Chris Johnson (FD: $2600, DK: $3300)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 1B/3B)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.428 / ISO: 0.158

NY Mets

Lucas Duda (FD: $4000, DK: $3600)

Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
BA: 0.253 / wOBA: 0.361 / ISO: 0.228
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 / ISO: 0.270

If there wasn’t a game in Coors Field tonight, Duda would be one of my favorite plays at any position. His price is depressed and he draws a terrific matchup against Trevor Cahill, who gave up a .402 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season. Duda has great power against right-handed pitching, posting a .394 wOBA and a .270 ISO in 2014.

Additional Plays:

Daniel Murphy (FD: $3100, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility (FD: 2B, DK: 2B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.328 / ISO: 0.12

Curtis Granderson (FD: $2800, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.159

Boston at Tampa Bay

Pitcher Grind Down

Wade Miley (FD: $7500, DK: $6900)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.34 / xFIP: 3.5 / SIERA: 3.67
K/9: 8.18 / K%: 0.211 / BB%: 0.087

TB vs. LH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.349 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 0.248 (Rank: 25)

Miley has struggled in his first two starts with the Red Sox. He has given up more earned runs (9) than the number of innings he has pitched (7.2). At this point, he’s a very risky fantasy option. I expect him to turn it around here shortly, but until he does, he can be avoided in all league formats. He’s a small underdog tonight against the Rays, who are ranked fourth in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Rating = 5

Chris Archer (FD: $9000, DK: $8200)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.33 / xFIP: 3.7 / SIERA: 3.8
K/9: 8 / K%: 0.211 / BB%: 0.088

BOS vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 0.162 (Rank: 2)

Archer has been dominant in his first three starts of the season, posting a 2.69 xFIP with a K/9 of 9.6. His biggest improvement so far has been his command. He has only walked 1.8 batters per nine innings, which is considerably lower than we have seen from him in the past. He does draw a tough matchup against the Red Sox, but he gets to face them at home in the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. Archer is a -126 favorite that deserves consideration in all league formats. Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox draw a difficult matchup against Chris Archer, who has held left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA since the start of 2014. If this game was in Fenway Park, it may be a different story, but the Red Sox bats can be avoided tonight.

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria (FD: $3400, DK: $3900)

Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
BA: 0.253 / wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.151
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 / ISO: 0.175

Longoria is only 8-for-40 on the season, but five of those hits went for extra bases. He is always in play when he is facing a left-handed pitcher, as he sports a career .385 wOBA against southpaws. He draws a favorable matchup against Wade Miley, who gave up a .331 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate last season.

Additional Plays:

Desmond Jennings (FD: $3000, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.365 / ISO: 0.222

Steven Souza (FD: $4000, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)

Minnesota at Kansas City

Pitcher Grind Down

Tommy Milone (FD: $7000, DK: $5800)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.19 / xFIP: 4.56 / SIERA: 4.57
K/9: 5.72 / K%: 0.145 / BB%: 0.071

KC vs. LH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.372 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 0.11 (Rank: 2)

Milone has pitched well in his first two starts of the season, but he draws one of the toughest matchups on the board tonight. The Royals are currently ranked first in wOBA against left-handed pitching, while striking out at the second lowest rate of any team. Milone’s strikeout potential is extremely limited in tonight’s matchup, which leaves him as a below average fantasy option. Rating = 4

Jason Vargas (FD: $7500, DK: $6500)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.71 / xFIP: 4.05 / SIERA: 4.14
K/9: 6.16 / K%: 0.162 / BB%: 0.052

MIN vs. LH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.253 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 0.185 (Rank: 9)

Vargas has struggled in his first two starts of the season, giving up 15 hits and six earned runs, while only striking out four batters. Tonight’s matchup against the Twins could go either way. The cold Twins’ bats could heat up against a struggling Vargas or Vargas could heat up against a struggling Twins’ offense. Vargas is a sizable favorite tonight, but unfortunately, it’s hard to have a lot of confidence in him right now. Plus, he is overpriced on FanDuel at $7,500. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Brian Dozier (FD: $3000, DK: $4700)

Position Eligibility (FD: 2B, DK: 2B/SS)
BA: 0.242 / wOBA: 0.34 / ISO: 0.174
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 / ISO: 0.203

Dozier’s price on DraftKings is too expensive, but he’s an affordable second base option tonight on FanDuel. He has had great success against left-handed pitching throughout his career and he’s coming off of a 2014 season where he posted a .351 wOBA and a .203 ISO against southpaws. Meanwhile, Jason Vargas gave up a .321 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate last season.

Additional Plays:

Trevor Plouffe (FD: $2600, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.343 / ISO: 0.152

Kansas City

Lorenzo Cain (FD: $4100, DK: $4800)

Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
BA: 0.301 / wOBA: 0.33 / ISO: 0.11
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.157

With all of the great outfield options in Coors Field tonight, Cain is going to get overlooked in both cash games and tournaments. He’s one of my favorite players to target in daily fantasy baseball, as he can hit for both average and for power. He also has good speed on the base pads. Cain finished 2014 with a .362 wOBA and a .157 ISO against southpaws and he draws a prime matchup against the lefty Tommy Milone.

Additional Plays:

Eric Hosmer (FD: $3500, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.296 / ISO: 0.115

Alcides Escobar (FD: $3000, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility (FD: SS, DK: SS)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.342 / ISO: 0.129

Salvador Perez (FD: $3600, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility (FD: C, DK: C)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.277 / ISO: 0.12

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco (FD: $9100, DK: $8300)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 2.55 / xFIP: 2.66 / SIERA: 2.58
K/9: 9.4 / K%: 0.265 / BB%: 0.055

CWS vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 0.174 (Rank: 5)

It’s great to see Carrasco back on the schedule tonight, after taking a line drive to the face in the first inning of his last start. He has a chance for a little revenge here, as he faces the same White Sox team. Carrasco throws as hard as any starter in baseball and he finished 2014 with an elite strikeout rate of 26.5%. He is going to be one of the best pitchers in daily fantasy baseball and tonight is a great opportunity to target him on a night where his ownership level will be lower than it typically would be. The White Sox are a tough opponent, but I still like Carrasco as a GPP play and as a borderline SP2 on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 7.5

Hector Noesi (FD: $6600, DK: $5600)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.75 / xFIP: 4.29 / SIERA: 4.34
K/9: 6.42 / K%: 0.168 / BB%: 0.076

CLE vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 0.209 (Rank: 14)

Noesi is not a pitcher that I will be targeting anytime soon. He has an average xFIP, an average strikeout rate, and he walks quite a few batters. Noesi is a reverse splits pitcher, but that doesn’t mean that the left-handed bats of the Indians can’t have success off of him tonight. He’s a sizable underdog tonight in a game that features a total of 8.5 runs. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Jason Kipnis (FD: $3200, DK: $4700)

Position Eligibility (FD: 2B, DK: 2B)
BA: 0.24 / wOBA: 0.289 / ISO: 0.090
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 / ISO: 0.117

I originally had Michael Brantley listed as the top play in the Indians’ lineup, but outfield is such a stacked position that I’ll likely be targeting other options. Kipnis deserves a look though, as he draws a favorable matchup against Hector Noesi in the hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field. Kipnis also has a friendly price point on FanDuel.

Additional Plays:

Michael Brantley (FD: $3800, DK: $4900)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.401 / ISO: 0.197

Michael Bourn (FD: $2500, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.321 / ISO: 0.116

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox face Carlos Carrasco, who has been terrific as a starter. This game does have a high run total, but the White Sox bats are a little over-priced for their matchup against Carrasco.

Cincinnati at Milwaukee

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Marquis (FD: $5500, DK: $4600)

MIL vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.269 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 0.218 (Rank: 20)

Marquis draws a favorable matchup against a Brewers’ offense that can’t seem to hit anything at the moment. That’s about all he has in his favor tonight though. Marquis is not a high-strikeout pitcher by any means and he is listed as a sizable underdog for tonight’s game in Milwaukee. I’ll side with the Brewers offense in this one. Rating = 4

Mike Fiers (FD: $8000, DK: $8400)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 2.13 / xFIP: 3.15 / SIERA: 2.94
K/9: 9.54 / K%: 0.277 / BB%: 0.062

CIN vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.279 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 0.212 (Rank: 16)

Fiers has given up some runs in his first two starts of the season, but the rest of his statistics check out nicely. He currently has a 3.51 xFIP with a K/9 of 10.1. Even if he gives up a couple of runs tonight, his strikeout potential would more than make up for it. He’s a small favorite against the Reds, who are ranked 22nd in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Fiers is a terrific tournament option that can also be considered in cash games if you don’t mind taking a little risk. Rating = 7.5

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

NO ELITE PLAYS

Additional Plays:

Joey Votto (FD: $4400, DK: $4900)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.342 / ISO: 0.093

Milwaukee

Ryan Braun (FD: $3500, DK: $4600)

Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
BA: 0.266 / wOBA: 0.340 / ISO: 0.187
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.335 / ISO: 0.169

Even if it was in garbage time, Braun finally got his first extra-base hit last night with a solo-home run. Maybe that can jump start his season. He has always hit right-handed pitching well throughout his career and a matchup against Jason Marquis shouldn’t scare us away from any of the Brewers’ bats tonight.

Additional Plays:

Adam Lind (FD: $3300, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.41 / ISO: 0.179

Jean Segura (FD: $3000, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility (FD: SS, DK: SS)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.282 / ISO: 0.087

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