MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 28th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Toronto at Boston
| Toronto | Boston | ||||||||
 | Drew Hutchison |  | Clay Buchholz | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BOS (-120) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.811 | 0.353 | 21.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.281 | 0.793 | 0.351 | 17.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.222 | 0.615 | 0.273 | 25.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.696 | 0.308 | 18.90% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Drew Hutchison (FD: $7500, DK: $6700)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.66 — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% — Walk Rate: 6.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.5%
2014: xFIP: 3.82 — Strikeout Rate: 23.4% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.1%
Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 15.9% (Rank: 2)
Analysis: For whatever reason, we have two games that start at 6:00 ET again today. This basically takes players from these two games out of consideration, unless you are playing the smaller leagues or head-to-head games in the all-day leagues. Hutchison is a high-strikeout pitcher, but this is not the matchup to target him in. The Red Sox are ranked 12th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and they have struck out at the second-lowest rate of any team against right-handed pitching. Hutchison is a small underdog in a game that features a total of 8.5 runs.
Pitcher Rating:49.1
Clay Buchholz (FD: $8000, DK: $6600)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 2.59 — Strikeout Rate: 28.7% — Walk Rate: 6.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 55.6%
2014: xFIP: 4.04 — Strikeout Rate: 17.9% — Walk Rate: 7.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 13)
Analysis: Buchholz appears to be back, after having a disappointing 2014 campaign. Through his first four starts this season, he has posted a 2.59 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 28.7%. He is producing a higher ground ball rate and he has kept his walks down. He draws a tough matchup against the Blue Jays tonight, but he still deserves consideration as a tournament play. The strikeout potential is there and he has a decent chance to be in line for the win as a -120 favorite.
Pitcher Rating:56.8
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Devon Travis (FD: $3200, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.443 — ISO: 0.217 — OBP: 0.431
Analysis: Travis hit another home run yesterday, as he continues to crush everything thrown his way. He is 25-for-68 on the season with 12 extra-base hits and 18 RBIs. He currently has a .443 wOBA and a .217 ISO against right-handed pitching and his price is still very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Continue targeting Travis until A. he cools off or B. his salary accurately reflects his recent production.
Secondary Plays:
Jose Bautista (FD: $4700, DK: $5100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.351 — OBP: 0.388
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.227 — OBP: 0.391
Russell Martin (FD: $3100, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.275 — OBP: 0.346
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.170 — OBP: 0.396
Boston
David Ortiz (FD: $3300, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.277 — OBP: 0.386
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.248 — OBP: 0.359
Analysis: Ortiz draws one of the better wOBA matchups on the board tonight. He currently has a .396 wOBA against right-handed pitching, while Drew Hutchison gave up a .353 wOBA to batters that hit from the left side of the plate. Ortiz should have a few RBI opportunities in what is expected to be a high-scoring game and Fenway Park is a great ballpark for left-handed hitters.
Secondary Plays:
Mookie Betts (FD: $3000, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.270 — ISO: 0.091 — OBP: 0.297
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.153 — OBP: 0.371
Brock Holt (FD: $2500, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B/OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.440 — ISO: 0.111 — OBP: 0.444
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.084 — OBP: 0.324
Kansas City at Cleveland
| Kansas City | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Jeremy Guthrie |  | Trevor Bauer | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-130) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.296 | 0.828 | 0.364 | 14.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.728 | 0.324 | 23.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.234 | 0.601 | 0.270 | 13.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.744 | 0.329 | 19.80% |
| Batter Splits | KC BvP | KC vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jeremy Guthrie (FD: $7300, DK: $5500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 5.08 — Strikeout Rate: 9.1% — Walk Rate: 9.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.0%
2014: xFIP: 4.33 — Strikeout Rate: 14.4% — Walk Rate: 5.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.6%
Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 17.4% (Rank: 4)
Analysis: Guthrie should not be on your radar tonight against the Indians. The only time that he should even be considered in DFS is when he is facing a right-handed heavy lineup. That’s not the case against the Indians. The left-handed heavy lineup of the Indians should cause problems for Guthrie, who gave up a .364 wOBA last season to batters that hit from the left side of the plate.
Pitcher Rating:41.6
Trevor Bauer (FD: $8500, DK: $8000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.09 — Strikeout Rate: 34.7% — Walk Rate: 14.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.5%
2014: xFIP: 4.14 — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% — Walk Rate: 9.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 35.3%
Kansas City Royals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.344 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 14.8% (Rank: 1)
Analysis: My rating system spit out a higher rating for Bauer tonight, but I had to manually adjust it, as there is no reason to target a pitcher against the Royals right now. They are currently ranked fourth in wOBA against right-handed pitching, striking out at the lowest rate of any team in baseball. Bauer has had a terrific start to the season, but the matchup against the Royals is more than enough for me to avoid him tonight.
Pitcher Rating:62.1
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Eric Hosmer (FD: $3200, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.446 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.486
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.132 — OBP: 0.326
Lorenzo Cain (FD: $3500, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.138 — OBP: 0.429
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.092 — OBP: 0.331
Cleveland
Carlos Santana (FD: $3500, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.294 — OBP: 0.349
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.195 — OBP: 0.351
Analysis: As mentioned above, Guthrie does not fare well against left-handed hitters. The Indians lineup is loaded with left-handed bats, which could make for an intriguing stack option if you are playing the early or all-day slates. Santana has hit right-handed pitching well this season with a .363 wOBA and a .294 ISO. He has also had great success against Guthrie in his career (10-for-21 with 5 extra-base hits).
Secondary Plays:
Brandon Moss (FD: $3500, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.343 — OBP: 0.270
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.213 — OBP: 0.328
Jason Kipnis (FD: $2700, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.053 — OBP: 0.350
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.117 — OBP: 0.337
Michael Bourn (FD: $2200, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.222 — ISO: 0.026 — OBP: 0.250
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.116 — OBP: 0.335
Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
| Tampa Bay | NY Yankees | ||||||||
 | Jake Odorizzi |  | Chase Whitley | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYY (-109) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.226 | 0.663 | 0.294 | 28.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.313 | 0.866 | 0.380 | 17.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.726 | 0.324 | 19.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.297 | 0.793 | 0.348 | 18.80% |
| Batter Splits | TB BvP | TB vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jake Odorizzi (FD: $8300, DK: $7300)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.83 — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% — Walk Rate: 7.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.90 — Strikeout Rate: 24.2% — Walk Rate: 8.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 29.9%
New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 23)
Analysis: Odorizzi has pitched well this season, but his home/road splits from 2014 still have me a little concerned. His ERA on the road last season was more than double that of his ERA at home. He also gave up a .386 wOBA to his opponents in his road starts. Throw in a matchup against a very capable Yankees’ offense in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and it’s easy to avoid Odorizzi tonight. There are better options at his price point for both cash games and tournaments.
Pitcher Rating:58.4
Chase Whitley (FD: $6100, DK: $4100)
Pitching Stats:
2014: xFIP: 3.77 — Strikeout Rate: 18.2% — Walk Rate: 5.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 15)
Analysis: Whitley will be making his first major-league start of the season, after starting three games at the AAA level. Whitley finished the 2014 season with a 3.77 xFIP and a strikeout rate of 18.2%. Whitley is a small favorite tonight against the Rays and you have to love the $4,100 price tag on DraftKings. There is still a lot of risk attached with Whitley, which takes him out of cash game consideration, but he definitely deserves a look as a tournament play tonight on DraftKings.
Pitcher Rating:55.5
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
James Loney (FD: $2600, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.766 — ISO: 0.833 — OBP: 0.571
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.103 — OBP: 0.355
Analysis: Loney has shown no rust since coming back from injury. He is 4-for-15 on the season with 3 extra-base hits. He finished last season with a respectable .337 wOBA against right-handed pitching and we all know how big of a boost left-handed hitters see when they play in Yankee Stadium. Loney also draws a favorable matchup against Chase Whitley, who gave up a .380 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season.
Secondary Plays:
Evan Longoria (FD: $3300, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.191 — OBP: 0.339
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.301
Asdrubal Cabrera (FD: $2200, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 2B/SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.098 — OBP: 0.327
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.144 — OBP: 0.316
NY Yankees
Brian McCann (FD: $2800, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.285 — ISO: 0.171 — OBP: 0.267
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.282 — ISO: 0.151 — OBP: 0.272
Analysis: McCann blasted a solo-shot into the upper deck in a win over the Rays last night. He has gotten off to a slow start this season, but that has kept his price at a very playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Jake Odorizzi, who has struggled on the road throughout his career. McCann also has a good track record against Odorizzi, going 8-for-13 with 4 extra-base hits.
Secondary Plays:
Mark Teixeira (FD: $3900, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.427 — ISO: 0.488 — OBP: 0.327
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.199 — OBP: 0.305
Alex Rodriguez (FD: $3400, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.443 — ISO: 0.316 — OBP: 0.426
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore
| Chicago White Sox | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Jeff Samardzija |  | Chris Tillman | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.662 | 0.292 | 24.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.670 | 0.299 | 17.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.631 | 0.279 | 22.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.672 | 0.299 | 17.40% |
| Batter Splits | CWS BvP | CWS vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
THIS GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED
Milwaukee at Cincinnati
| Milwaukee | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Kyle Lohse |  | Johnny Cueto | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN (-185) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.725 | 0.319 | 15.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.194 | 0.561 | 0.257 | 23.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.232 | 0.644 | 0.286 | 19.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.190 | 0.585 | 0.261 | 26.40% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Kyle Lohse (FD: $6300, DK: $7000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.88 — Strikeout Rate: 14.4% — Walk Rate: 4.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.4%
2014: xFIP: 4.05 — Strikeout Rate: 17.3% — Walk Rate: 5.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.285 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 13)
Analysis: Lohse may own a 7.94 ERA, but that is largely due to bad luck. If you look at his xFIP (which takes luck out of the equation), Lohse is actually pitching slightly better than he did in 2014. He currently has a 3.88 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 14.4%. He’s not a high-strikeout pitcher by any means though, which really limits his fantasy appeal. He could surprise some people and pitch a decent game tonight, but there isn’t enough upside to target him on the road against Johnny Cueto and the Reds.
Pitcher Rating:52.6
Johnny Cueto (FD: $10400, DK: $10400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 2.51 — Strikeout Rate: 29.1% — Walk Rate: 4.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.21 — Strikeout Rate: 25.2% — Walk Rate: 6.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.276 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 23.1% (Rank: 25)
Analysis: Cueto is off to a fantastic start this season. He currently has a 2.51 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 29.1%. He is one of the largest favorites on the board tonight, as he gets to face a struggling Brewers’ offense in Cincinnati. Cueto struck out eight batters over eight innings of work against the Brewers last week and he should have similar success against them tonight. Milwaukee is currently ranked 26th in wOBA against right-handed pitching, striking out at the sixth-highest rate of any team in baseball.
Pitcher Rating:94.6
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
NO SECONDARY PLAYS
Cincinnati
Billy Hamilton (FD: $3800, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF/SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.303 — ISO: 0.130 — OBP: 0.321
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.285 — ISO: 0.104 — OBP: 0.291
Analysis: Hamilton was one of the only Reds’ hitters that didn’t really do much in a big win over the Brewers last night. With Hamilton, we aren’t looking for power numbers, we are looking to target him when he can steal bases and score runs. Hamilton has already swiped 13 bases and he has already scored 14 runs. He has a great chance to add to those totals tonight against Kyle Lohse.
Secondary Plays:
Joey Votto (FD: $4100, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.514 — ISO: 0.417 — OBP: 0.466
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.093 — OBP: 0.403
Zack Cozart (FD: $2300, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.408 — ISO: 0.277 — OBP: 0.347
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.239 — ISO: 0.068 — OBP: 0.254