MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 28th - Page Three
Philadelphia at St. Louis
| Philadelphia | St. Louis | ||||||||
 | Severino Gonzalez |  | Michael Wacha | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL (-210) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.581 | 0.266 | 0.184 | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.687 | 0.306 | 0.235 | ||||
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | STL vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Severino Gonzalez (FD: $5100, DK: $4800)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 17.2% (Rank: 3)
Analysis: Gonzalez will be making his first career major-league start. He is not a top prospect for the Phillies and comes into tonight’s game as one of the biggest underdogs on the board. He has a K/9 under 7.0 in each of his last two seasons and he can safely be avoided tonight against the Cardinals, who are ranked ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Pitcher Rating: 31.2
Michael Wacha (FD: $8400, DK: $8300)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.63 — Strikeout Rate: 14.8% — Walk Rate: 4.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 55.7%
2014: xFIP: 3.71 — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% — Walk Rate: 7.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.6%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.250 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 15)
Analysis: Wacha’s numbers have improved across the board this season, with the exception of his strikeout rate. That will fix itself as the season goes one though, as he has electric stuff as a starter. Wacha is a huge favorite tonight against the Phillies, who are ranked dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Wacha should pitch well here and he should get plenty of run support to back his cause to pick up the ever-important win.
Pitcher Rating:85.4
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
NO SECONDARY PLAYS
St. Louis
Jhonny Peralta (FD: $2800, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.402 — ISO: 0.218 — OBP: 0.373
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.172 — OBP: 0.317
Analysis: Peralta is typically only targeted against left-handed pitching, but I don’t mind targeting him against right-handed pitching when the matchup is right. Peralta currently has a .402 wOBA and a .218 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and he is a great source of value at shortstop. The Cardinals’ offense is in a great spot tonight against Severino Gonzalez.
Secondary Plays:
Matt Carpenter (FD: $4000, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.499 — ISO: 0.320 — OBP: 0.455
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.104 — OBP: 0.381
Matt Adams (FD: $2800, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.311
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.187 — OBP: 0.349
Colorado at Arizona
| Colorado | Arizona | ||||||||
 | Kyle Kendrick |  | Archie Bradley | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| ARI (-115) | 9 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.280 | 0.826 | 0.360 | 0.162 | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.726 | 0.321 | 0.123 | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Kyle Kendrick (FD: $5900, DK: $4300)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.39 — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% — Walk Rate: 9.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.2%
2014: xFIP: 4.35 — Strikeout Rate: 14.0% — Walk Rate: 6.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Kendrick is not a good pitcher in daily fantasy baseball. He has a mediocre xFIP, a mediocre strikeout rate, and a high walk rate. He draws a tough matchup against a very capable Diamondbacks’ offense and he has to face them in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. He can safely be avoided tonight, as he is a small underdog in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs.
Pitcher Rating:45.1
Archie Bradley (FD: $7000, DK: $6100)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.61 — Strikeout Rate: 16.9% — Walk Rate: 15.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 65.2%
Colorado Rockies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.344 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 17.7% (Rank: 7)
Analysis: Bradley has the potential to be a good pitcher in the majors, but he is still learning the ropes. He has had mixed results in his first few career starts, posting a 4.61 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 16.9%. He has produced a high ground ball rate, but we’d like to see him improve on his 15.5% walk rate. He draws a very difficult matchup against the potent Rockies’ offense that is ranked fourth in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:53.4
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
Corey Dickerson (FD: $4600, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.440 — ISO: 0.365 — OBP: 0.357
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.419 — ISO: 0.278 — OBP: 0.379
Analysis: Dickerson is always in play when there is a right handed pitcher on the mound. Dickerson currently owns a .440 wOBA and a .365 ISO against righties. The Rockies have one of the highest team totals on the board as tonight, as they get to face Archie Bradley in the hitter-friendly Chase Field.
Secondary Plays:
Troy Tulowitzki (FD: $4300, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.190 — OBP: 0.283
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.207 — OBP: 0.402
Arizona
Paul Goldschmidt (FD: $4500, DK: $5600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.170 — OBP: 0.424
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.249 — OBP: 0.362
Analysis: Goldschmidt is typically targeted against left-handed pitching, but he’s no slouch against righties either. He finished 2014 with a .386 wOBA against right-handed pitching and he has picked up right where he left off with a .385 wOBA rhis season. He draws a terrific matchup against Kyle Kendrick, who struggles with batters from both sides of the plate.
Secondary Plays:
David Peralta (FD: $2400, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.235 — OBP: 0.282
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.194 — OBP: 0.342
Ender Inciarte (FD: $2700, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.125 — OBP: 0.300
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.097 — OBP: 0.315
Chris Owings (FD: $2500, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.149 — OBP: 0.313
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 — ISO: 0.132 — OBP: 0.292
LA Angels at Oakland
| LA Angels | Oakland | ||||||||
 | Jered Weaver |  | Sonny Gray | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| OAK (-150) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.723 | 0.321 | 0.198 | SP vs. Left | 0.219 | 0.639 | 0.289 | 0.207 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.21 | 0.619 | 0.277 | 0.179 | SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.614 | 0.277 | 0.200 |
| Batter Splits | ANA BvP | ANA vs R | Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jered Weaver (FD: $7800, DK: $7500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.30 — Strikeout Rate: 12.4% — Walk Rate: 4.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 38.3%
2014: xFIP: 4.30 — Strikeout Rate: 19.0% — Walk Rate: 7.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 32.9%
Oakland Athletics vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.343 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 17.7% (Rank: 7)
Analysis: Weaver is one of my least favorite pitchers on the board tonight, regardless of price. His strikeout rate continues to lower each and every season and he’s not throwing fastballs in the low 80’s. He doesn’t product many ground ball outs or many strikeouts, both of which are huge red flags. He is far off of my radar tonight against the A’s, who are ranked sixth in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:46.7
Sonny Gray (FD: $8900, DK: $8500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.79 — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% — Walk Rate: 4.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.6%
2014: xFIP: 3.47 — Strikeout Rate: 20.4% — Walk Rate: 8.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 55.9%
LA Angels of Anaheim vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.278 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 15)
Analysis: Gray has pitched pretty well this season with a 3.79 xFIP and a strikeout rate of 17.6%. He has managed to lower his walk rate this season, which is promising. Gray has a great track record at home and he should get plenty of run support tonight with Jered Weaver on the mound. I expect him to pitch well here, but I’m not sure I want to pay a premium for Gray in a matchup against the Angels. He’s in play tonight, but I’d rather target Michael Wacha or Tyson Ross in the same price range.
Pitcher Rating:74.5
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Mike Trout (FD: $5200, DK: $5500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.439 — ISO: 0.234 — OBP: 0.436
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.283 — OBP: 0.374
Kole Calhoun (FD: $3400, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.225 — OBP: 0.333
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.190 — OBP: 0.326
Oakland
Ike Davis (FD: $2500, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.115 — OBP: 0.407
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.159 — OBP: 0.360
Analysis: The masses will likely overlook the A’s offense tonight, as the game has a low total of only 7.5 runs. For my money, the left-handed bats on the A’s are some of the best plays on the board, dollar for dollar. Weaver gave up a .321 wOBA to left-handed hitters in 2014 and that number is up to a .447 wOBA in 2015. Davis is cheap and provides great upside at his price point.
Secondary Plays:
Stephen Vogt (FD: $3100, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.492 — ISO: 0.362 — OBP: 0.444
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.148 — OBP: 0.331
Sam Fuld (FD: $2500, DK: $3200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.190 — OBP: 0.369
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: 0.111 — OBP: 0.315
San Francisco at LA Dodgers
| San Francisco | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
 | Madison Bumgarner |  | Clayton Kershaw | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD (-175) | 6 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.215 | 0.539 | 0.239 | 0.310 | SP vs. Left | 0.190 | 0.477 | 0.215 | 0.315 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.684 | 0.301 | 0.235 | SP vs. Right | 0.195 | 0.531 | 0.237 | 0.320 |
| Batter Splits | SF BvP | SF vs L | Batter Splits | LA BvP | LA vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Madison Bumgarner (FD: $9400, DK: $10000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.20 — Strikeout Rate: 16.7% — Walk Rate: 3.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 38.2%
2014: xFIP: 2.99 — Strikeout Rate: 25.1% — Walk Rate: 4.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 13)
Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 13)
Analysis: This will be Bumgarner vs. Kershaw II, as these pitchers squared off against each other in San Francisco last week. Bumgarner ended up picking up the win in that contest, but I’m expecting a different result this time around. Bumgarner’s numbers haven’t been overly impressive this season, as he currently has a 4.20 xFIP with a strikeout rate of only 16.7%. While he’s capable of pitching a gem every time he takes the mound, he is not a great cash game play tonight.
Pitcher Rating:78.8
Clayton Kershaw (FD: $11500, DK: $12400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 1.91 — Strikeout Rate: 34.3% — Walk Rate: 6.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.4%
2014: xFIP: 2.08 — Strikeout Rate: 31.9% — Walk Rate: 4.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.8%
San Francisco Giants vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 19)
Analysis: Kershaw may have an ERA of 4.07, but he has pitched just as well as he did in his MVP campaign of 2014. He currently has a 1.91 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 34.3%. There are quite a few aces on the mound tonight, but none with as much upside as Kershaw. It’s only a matter of time before he has one of his epic outings and that could very well come tonight at home against the Giants, who are ranked 20th in wOBA against left-handed pitching. Kershaw is the premier play at pitcher tonight, the only question is whether or not he’s worth paying the premium over some of the other pitching options.
Pitcher Rating:97.5
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
NO SECONDARY PLAYS
LA Dodgers
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
NO SECONDARY PLAYS
Houston at San Diego
| Houston | San Diego | ||||||||
 | Roberto Hernandez |  | Tyson Ross | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SDP (-145) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.745 | 0.333 | 0.094 | SP vs. Left | 0.227 | 0.636 | 0.289 | 0.237 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.738 | 0.323 | 0.191 | SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 0.632 | 0.286 | 0.244 |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | SD BvP | SD vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Roberto Hernandez (FD: $5700, DK: $5100)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.06 — Strikeout Rate: 13.9% — Walk Rate: 8.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 58.9%
2014: xFIP: 4.52 — Strikeout Rate: 14.5% — Walk Rate: 10.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.7%
San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Hernandez sees a ballpark boost in Petco Park, but that’s about all he has going in his favor tonight. He has a mediocre 4.06 xFIP with a below-average strikeout rate of 13.9%. Hernandez walks too many batters and will likely see little to no run support with Tyson Ross on the mound for the Padres. He can safely be avoided in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating:57.8
Tyson Ross (FD: $8400, DK: $9200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.51 — Strikeout Rate: 26.7% — Walk Rate: 15.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 55.7%
2014: xFIP: 3.11 — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% — Walk Rate: 8.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 57.0%
Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 23.9% (Rank: 30)
Analysis: Dollar for dollar, Ross is my favorite pitching option on FanDuel tonight and he’s in my top three on DraftKings. He has an elite strikeout rate and he’s facing an Astros’ offense that has struck out more than any other team in baseball this season. Ross has always pitched well in Petco Park (2.72 xFIP in 2014) and we can expect another dominate performance from him tonight against Houston.
Pitcher Rating:91.8
Batter Grind Down
Houston
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Jose Altuve (FD: $4100, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.267 — ISO: 0.074 — OBP: 0.293
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.100 — OBP: 0.356
San Diego
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Justin Upton (FD: $3800, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.345 — OBP: 0.344
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.197 — OBP: 0.331
Yonder Alonso (FD: $2700, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.448
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.171 — OBP: 0.283