MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 28th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-28 19:12:25

Washington at Atlanta

Washington					Atlanta
			Tanner Roark					Julio Teheran
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ATL (-110)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.234	0.672	0.299	0.132	SP vs. Left	0.235	0.687	0.301	0.188
SP vs. Right	0.239	0.592	0.263	0.217	SP vs. Right	0.218	0.587	0.262	0.234
Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

A.J. Cole

Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 17.4% (Rank: 4)

Analysis: Before the season started, Cole was ranked as the sixth-best prospect of the Nationals. He has pitched well in the minors and he will be making his first career major-league start tonight. Cole is not available on FanDuel or DraftKings though, so we will have to wait until his next start before he is even an option.

Pitcher Rating: 54.5

Julio Teheran (FD: $8300, DK: $8700)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.63 — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% — Walk Rate: 12.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 35.6%
2014: xFIP: 3.72 — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% — Walk Rate: 5.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 34.8%

Washington Nationals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.269 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 23.3% (Rank: 27)

Analysis: Teheran numbers are trending in the wrong direction this season. His xFIP and his walk rate are both up, while his strikeout rate is down. Luckily, he gets a home matchup against a struggling Nationals’ offense tonight. Teheran was terrific at home last season, holding his opponents to a .266 wOBA with a strikeout rate of 21.6%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Nationals, who are ranked 27th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:80.2

Batter Grind Down

Washington

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Bryce Harper (FD: $4100, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.399 — ISO: 0.245 — OBP: 0.426
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.144 — OBP: 0.348

Atlanta

A.J. Pierzynski (FD: $2600, DK: $3400)

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.510 — ISO: 0.367 — OBP: 0.419
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.298 — ISO: 0.098 — OBP: 0.309

Analysis: While Cole is one of the Nationals’ top prospects, many pitchers struggle in their debut outings. Pierzynski has been red hot to start the season, posting a .510 wOBA and a .367 ISO against right-handed pitching. His price on FanDuel has yet to reflect his recent level of production, allowing us to buy low on the Braves’ catcher.

Secondary Plays:

Freddie Freeman (FD: $3200, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.262 — OBP: 0.283
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.188 — OBP: 0.397

Nick Markakis (FD: $2800, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.441 — ISO: 0.057 — OBP: 0.523
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.135 — OBP: 0.342

NY Mets at Miami

NY Mets					Miami
			Rafael Montero					David Phelps
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA (-112)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.293	0.923	0.401	0.146	SP vs. Left	0.223	0.702	0.314	0.204
SP vs. Right	0.215	0.711	0.32	0.297	SP vs. Right	0.295	0.805	0.356	0.165
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Rafael Montero (FD: $5800, DK: $6500)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.12 — Strikeout Rate: 31.8% — Walk Rate: 18.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.4%
2014: xFIP: 4.33 — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% — Walk Rate: 11.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 33.9%

Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 23.5% (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Montero was called up to start tonight’s game to give the other starters an extra day of rest. He is a high-strikeout pitcher that can struggle with his command at times. He finished 2014 with a 4.33 xFIP and a strikeout rate of 21.7%. He draws a decent matchup against the Marlins, who have struck out at the 2nd-highest rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season. He’s a decent flier in tournaments, but he can safely be avoided in cash games.

Pitcher Rating:56.8

David Phelps (FD: $6000, DK: $4400)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 5.33 — Strikeout Rate: 15.4% — Walk Rate: 13.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 25.0%
2014: xFIP: 4.22 — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% — Walk Rate: 9.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.2%

New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 10)

Analysis: Phelps is coming off of his best start of the season. Granted, it was against the Phillies, but he threw seven shutout innings while striking out five batters. His price is still super-cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings, making him an intriguing tournament play tonight against the Mets. On the season, the Mets are ranked 21st in wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Pitcher Rating:60.4

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Michael Cuddyer (FD: $2800, DK: $4300)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.278 — ISO: 0.104 — OBP: 0.288
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.194 — OBP: 0.333

Analysis: Cuddyer will not be a popular play tonight, but he’s a serviceable value option in the outfield. He finished 2014 with a .362 wOBA and a .194 ISO against right-handed pitching (granted, a lot of that was in Coors). He draws a favorable matchup against David Phelps, who is a reverse-splits pitcher.

Secondary Plays:

Daniel Murphy (FD: $2900, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.231 — ISO: 0.122 — OBP: 0.255
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.120 — OBP: 0.334

Miami

Dee Gordon (FD: $3500, DK: $4400)

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.069 — OBP: 0.403
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.090 — OBP: 0.322

Analysis: One of my favorite strategies in daily fantasy baseball is to target cheap speed players that hit at the top of the order. Gordon fits that bill, as he is priced at only $3,500 tonight on FanDuel. Gordon has already racked up 34 hits this season and he has already stolen 8 bases. Continue targeting him tonight against Rafael Montero, who has given up a .373 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season.

Secondary Plays:

Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $4900, DK: $5300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.416 — ISO: 0.328 — OBP: 0.373
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.262 — OBP: 0.382

Seattle at Texas

Seattle					Texas
			J.A. Happ					Ross Detwiler
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA (-115)					9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.264	0.873	0.379	0.214	SP vs. Left	0.218	0.516	0.235	0.14
SP vs. Right	0.257	0.744	0.327	0.193	SP vs. Right	0.304	0.848	0.368	0.144
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

J.A. Happ (FD: $6900, DK: $6300)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.68 — Strikeout Rate: 11.1% — Walk Rate: 2.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.6%
2014: xFIP: 3.95 — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.6%

Texas Rangers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 11)

Analysis: Happ is an average left-handed pitcher with a decent strikeout rate. He doesn’t produce a very high ground ball rate though, which is always a concern for pitchers that aren’t considered elite. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Rangers, who are ranked 14th in wOBA and 11th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. At his price point, he’s not a pitcher that is on my radar tonight.

Pitcher Rating:49.3

Ross Detwiler (FD: $5600, DK: $4000)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 7.00 — Strikeout Rate: 7.3% — Walk Rate: 10.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 30.9%
2014: xFIP: 4.47 — Strikeout Rate: 14.2% — Walk Rate: 7.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.3%

Seattle Mariners vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 16.6% (Rank: 7)

Analysis: Even though the Mariners may not have the highest team wOBA against left-handed pitching, I want no part of Detwiler tonight. He currently owns a 7.00 xFIP with a walk rate that is higher than his strikeout rate. He’s a small underdog in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs. Avoid the pitchers in Texas tonight and target both offenses in this one.

Pitcher Rating:36.1

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Nelson Cruz (FD: $5000, DK: $5300)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.831 — ISO: 1.000 — OBP: 0.571
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.416 — ISO: 0.255 — OBP: 0.407

Analysis: There are almost TOO MANY reasons to like Cruz tonight in daily fantasy baseball. He gets to go back to his old stomping grounds in Arlington and he gets to face an average left-handed pitcher in Ross Detwiler. Cruz is one of the best hitters in baseball against left-handed pitching, as he posted a .416 wOBA against southpaws last season.

Secondary Plays:

Austin Jackson (FD: $2400, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.424 — ISO: 0.316 — OBP: 0.350
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.080 — OBP: 0.356

Robinson Cano (FD: $3700, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.228 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.190
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.096 — OBP: 0.356

Mike Zunino (FD: $2200, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.178 — ISO: 0.071 — OBP: 0.188
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.176 — OBP: 0.295

Texas

Adrian Beltre (FD: $3100, DK: $4700)

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.280 — ISO: 0.150 — OBP: 0.304
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.421 — ISO: 0.191 — OBP: 0.442

Analysis: Beltre is still expensive on DraftKings, but he is sitting at a very playable $3,100 on FanDuel. Beltre has always hit left-handed pitching well throughout his career. In 2014, he posted a .421 wOBA and a .191 ISO against southpaws. He draws a favorable matchup against J.A. Happ, who struggles against batters from both sides of the plate.

Secondary Plays:

Jake Smolinski (FD: $2500, DK: $3300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.235 — OBP: 0.350
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.585 — ISO: 0.381 — OBP: 0.500

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs

Pittsburgh					Chicago Cubs
			Jeff Locke					Travis Wood
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (-118)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.183	0.521	0.238	0.101	SP vs. Left	0.214	0.618	0.276	0.227
SP vs. Right	0.271	0.777	0.342	0.18	SP vs. Right	0.293	0.837	0.371	0.174
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Locke (FD: $6700, DK: $6000)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.30 — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% — Walk Rate: 5.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 58.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.90 — Strikeout Rate: 16.2% — Walk Rate: 7.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.5%

Chicago Cubs vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 27.1% (Rank: 28)

Analysis: Locke seems to be one of the most hated pitchers in DFS. He is the punch line of quite a few jokes, even though he has pitched pretty well in the last two years. He currently owns a 3.30 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 19.7%. The Cubs do strike out often, but they are also a very capable offense, especially now that Kris Bryant is in the lineup. Locke isn’t as bad as most people think he is, but he’s not a recommended play tonight.

Pitcher Rating:58.4

Travis Wood (FD: $6400, DK: $6200)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.00 — Strikeout Rate: 25.0% — Walk Rate: 8.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 24.4%
2014: xFIP: 4.51 — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% — Walk Rate: 9.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 34.4%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.269 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 28.0% (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Wood is an extreme fly ball pitcher that often gets himself into trouble. He walks too many batters and gives up too many home runs. Outside of that, he’s a solid left-handed pitcher. He has a high strikeout rate and a solid matchup against the Pirates, who are ranked 26th in wOBA and 29th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Wood is a little too risky to use in cash games, but he deserves a look in tournaments.

Pitcher Rating:73.4

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Starling Marte (FD: $4000, DK: $5200)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.795 — ISO: 1.125 — OBP: 0.444
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.124 — OBP: 0.354

Analysis: Marte is one of the most over-looked players in DFS. He has great power, great speed, and he hits for a decent average. He has crushed left-handed pitching this season with a .795 wOBA and a .444 OBP. He provides great upside against Travis Wood, who gave up a .342 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season.

Secondary Plays:

Josh Harrison (FD: $2900, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B/OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.530 — ISO: 0.750 — OBP: 0.400
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.142 — OBP: 0.370

Chicago Cubs

Kris Bryant (FD: $3500, DK: $4600)

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.375

Analysis: Bryant has been on a tear since being called up to the majors and it doesn’t appear that he is going to slow down anytime soon. Pitchers don’t know how to attack him, as he doesn’t appear to have any weaknesses at the plate. Bryant is 13-for-37 with 4 extra-base hits and 9 RBIs. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Jeff Locke, who gave up a .331 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate last season.

Secondary Plays:

Jorge Soler (FD: $3200, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.450 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.571
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.273

Starlin Castro (FD: $3300, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.444 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.500
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.122 — OBP: 0.362

Detroit at Minnesota

Detroit					Minnesota
			Anibal Sanchez					Mike Pelfrey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET (-140)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.218	0.562	0.251	0.213	SP vs. Left	0.183	0.648	0.294	0.1
SP vs. Right	0.235	0.651	0.29	0.178	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Anibal Sanchez (FD: $8500, DK: $7700)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.72 — Strikeout Rate: 25.8% — Walk Rate: 8.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 31.7%
2014: xFIP: 3.56 — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% — Walk Rate: 5.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.7%

Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.261 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 23.3% (Rank: 27)

Analysis: Sanchez has pitched pretty well this season with a 3.72 xFIP and a strikeout rate of 25.8%. He is walking more batters than usual and his ground ball rate is down, but I expect those to correct themselves over the course of the season. He draws a fantastic matchup against the Twins, who are ranked 29th in wOBA and 27th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Sanchez should also see plenty of run support with Mike Pelfrey on the mound for Minnesota.

Pitcher Rating:75.5

Mike Pelfrey (FD: $5800, DK: $4200)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.96 — Strikeout Rate: 11.1% — Walk Rate: 9.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 61.1%
2014: xFIP: 6.55 — Strikeout Rate: 8.4% — Walk Rate: 15.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.7%

Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.345 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 12)

Analysis: Pelfrey is not a recommended fantasy option tonight and he’s not going to be one anytime soon. He finished 2014 with a 6.55 xFIP and a walk rate that was nearly twice as high as his xFIP. The Tigers’ offense should put up plenty of runs tonight.

Pitcher Rating:33.5

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

J.D. Martinez (FD: $3400, DK: $4600)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.291 — OBP: 0.281
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: 0.205 — OBP: 0.357

Analysis: As mentioned above, the Tigers are one of the top offenses to target tonight, as they draw a favorable matchup against Mike Pelfrey, who gave up a .385 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season. Meanwhile, Martinez posted a .379 wOBA and a .205 ISO against right-handed pitching. In terms of wOBA, Martinez and the Tigers have one of the best matchups on the board.

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Cabrera (FD: $4500, DK: $5400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.440 — ISO: 0.146 — OBP: 0.491
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.203 — OBP: 0.374

Victor Martinez (FD: $3400, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.208 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.310
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.199 — OBP: 0.402

Anthony Gose (FD: $2900, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.184 — OBP: 0.385
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: 0.074 — OBP: 0.329

Minnesota

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Kennys Vargas (FD: $2200, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.135 — ISO: 0.029 — OBP: 0.158
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.252 — OBP: 0.338

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