MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 9th - Page Three

Kansas City at Minnesota – 8:10 PM EST

Kansas City Minnesota
kansascitymlb Chris Young minnesotamlb Trevor May
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
Pick ‘Em 8.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.244 0.762 0.335 0.138 SP vs. Left 0.315 0.854 0.373 0.201
SP vs. Right 0.182 0.591 0.259 0.196 SP vs. Right 0.284 0 0.344 0.197
Batter Splits KCR BvP KC vs R Batter Splits MIN BvP MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Young (FD: $6300, DK: $4800)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 210.2 — SIERA: 5.11 — K%: 16.3% — BB%: 8.4% — FB Rate: 58.7% — HR/FB: 8.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.2 — SIERA: 5.13 — K%: 14.8% — BB%: 6.6% — FB Rate: 54.3% — HR/FB: 6.0%

Minnesota Twins Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.290 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 24)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 16.6% (Rank: 4)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 16)

Analysis: Young is an easy pitcher to avoid in daily fantasy baseball. Since the start of 2014, he has posted a below-average SIERA of 5.11 with a low strikeout rate of 16.3%. While the Twins have struggled to hit right-handed pitching this season (29th in wOBA), there isn’t enough upside here to warrant consideration.

Pitcher Rating:40.0


Trevor May (FD: $6400, DK: $7000)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 102.1 — SIERA: 3.80 — K%: 20.9% — BB%: 6.9% — FB Rate: 39.4% — HR/FB: 8.7%
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.2 — SIERA: 3.12 — K%: 23.8% — BB%: 3.2% — FB Rate: 39.6% — HR/FB: 8.3%

Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.254 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 22)
Pitchers per PA: 3.64 (Rank: 30)

Analysis: May has pitched very well over the last month of play, posting a 3.12 SIERA with an impressive strikeout rate of 23.8%. The issue with May is twofold. 1. There are a TON of aces on the mound tonight and 2. He’s facing a Royals’ offense that has been very tough to strike out this season.

Pitcher Rating:61.0

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Eric Hosmer (FD: $3300, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 533 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.155 — wRC+: 120

Kendrys Morales (FD: $2700, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 398 — wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 92


Minnesota

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Joe Mauer (FD: $3000, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 482 — wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.111 — wRC+: 103


Houston at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM EST

Houston Chicago White Sox
houstonmlb Dallas Keuchel whitesoxmlb Carlos Rodon
LEFT Left
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU (-120) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.215 0.545 0.246 0.243 SP vs. Left 0.267 0.721 0.32 0.265
SP vs. Right 0.239 0.638 0.285 0.161 SP vs. Right 0.25 0.76 0.348 0.169
Batter Splits HOU vs L Batter Splits CHW BvP CWS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Dallas Keuchel (FD: $9900, DK: $9100)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 287.2 — SIERA: 3.06 — K%: 18.6% — BB%: 6.1% — FB Rate: 18.1% — HR/FB: 9.3%
Last 30 Days: IP: 42.2 — SIERA: 2.55 — K%: 21.8% — BB%: 5.3% — FB Rate: 12.3% — HR/FB: 20.0%

Chicago White Sox Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.232 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 23)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.272 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 7)
Pitchers per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 24)

Analysis: Keuchel has been terrific this season. He has the highest ground-ball rate of any qualified starter and we’ve seen a spike in his strikeouts this season. Over the last month, he has a 2.55 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.8%. His ability to generate ground balls keep extra-base hits against him at a minimum. He draws a very favorable matchup against the White Sox, who are ranked dead last in wOBA (.232) against left-handed pitching this season. I still give the edge to Corey Kluber and Francisco Liriano, but Keuchel isn’t far behind.

Pitcher Rating:75.5


Carlos Rodon (FD: $7200, DK: $5700)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 34.2 — SIERA: 4.50 — K%: 22.3% — BB%: 14.0% — FB Rate: 34.4% — HR/FB: 3.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.1 — SIERA: 4.33 — K%: 24.8% — BB%: 14.4% — FB Rate: 32.4% — HR/FB: 4.2%

Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 24.8% (Rank: 28)
Pitchers per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 12)

Analysis: Rodon had a very high strikeout rate in the minor leagues and so far, he’s been able to maintain a high strikeout rate in the major leagues as well. While he does have a high strikeout rate, he has really struggled with his command, walking 14.0% of the batters that he has faced this season. He’s still struggling with consistency and he’s not really on my radar tonight against the Astros, who have a very potent offense.

Pitcher Rating:54.3

Batter Grind Down

Houston

George Springer (FD: $3600, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF

2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 166 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.211 — wRC+: 131
Last 14 Days: PA: 57 — wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 148

Analysis: Springer has hit left-handed pitching well throughout his career and he gets to face a rookie tonight in Carlos Rodon. On the season, Rodon has given up a .348 wOBA to hitters from the right side of the plate. Springer is a speed/power threat and his price has recently come down on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Secondary Plays:

Evan Gattis (FD: $3800, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 144 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.241 — wRC+: 120

Jose Altuve (FD: $3600, DK: $5100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 238 — wOBA: 0.428 — ISO: 0.137 — wRC+: 180

Carlos Correa (FD: $2200, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: — wOBA: — ISO: — wRC+:


Chicago White Sox

NONE – Since the start of 2014, Dallas Keuchel has held left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA, which rivals almost any other pitcher in baseball. He produces an elite ground ball rate, which really limits extra-base hits against him. The White Sox can safely be avoided tonight.


St. Louis at Colorado – 8:40 PM EST

St. Louis Colorado
stlouismlb Michael Wacha coloradomlb Jorge De La Rosa
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL (-130) 10.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.218 0.608 0.276 0.185 SP vs. Left 0.203 0.582 0.259 0.242
SP vs. Right 0.23 0.628 0.28 0.193 SP vs. Right 0.247 0.762 0.336 0.175
Batter Splits STL BvP STL vs L Batter Splits COL BvP COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Wacha (FD: $8700, DK: $7400)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 177.1 — SIERA: 3.90 — K%: 19.2% — BB%: 6.8% — FB Rate: 34.8% — HR/FB: 6.1%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.2 — SIERA: 3.79 — K%: 21.9% — BB%: 7.0% — FB Rate: 40.9% — HR/FB: 8.3%

Colorado Rockies Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 19.1% (Rank: 10)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.348 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 12)
Pitchers per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 22)

Analysis: Wacha is pitching in Coors Field. You know the rules.

Pitcher Rating:54.1


Jorge De La Rosa (FD: $6000, DK: $6100)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 218.0 — SIERA: 4.03 — K%: 19.1% — BB%: 9.3% — FB Rate: 29.8% — HR/FB: 12.8%
Last 30 Days: IP: 21.2 — SIERA: 4.60 — K%: 19.4% — BB%: 14.0% — FB Rate: 26.2% — HR/FB: 12.5%

St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 27)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 19)
Pitchers per PA: 3.73 (Rank: 23)

Analysis: De La Rosa has good career splits at home, but there is no reason to target him tonight in Coors.

Pitcher Rating:49.1

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Jhonny Peralta (FD: $4200, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS

2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 196 — wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.228 — wRC+: 139
Last 14 Days: PA: 53 — wOBA: 0.476 — ISO: 0.271 — wRC+: 207

Analysis: Matt Holliday would be the preferred play here, but he’s dealing with a hamstring strain that will likely keep him out of tonight’s game. Peralta is next in line. He has been red hot recently with a .476 wOBA and a .271 ISO over the last 14 days. Peralta has always hit left-handed pitching well and he sees a huge ballpark boost playing in Coors Field. Don’t be afraid to load up on the left and right-handed hitters from the Cardinals tonight.

Additional Plays:

Matt Carpenter (FD: $4300, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 284 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.120 — wRC+: 108

Kolten Wong (FD: $3500, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 137 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.130 — wRC+: 117

Yadier Molina (FD: $2900, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 157 — wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.138 — wRC+: 111

Randal Grichuk (FD: $2800, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 92 — wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.191 — wRC+: 93


Colorado

Carlos Gonzalez (FD: $3800, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF

2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 346 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.203 — wRC+: 100
Last 14 Days: PA: 48 — wOBA: 0.423 — ISO: 0.190 — wRC+: 154

Analysis: Gonzalez racked up two more hits last night in a win over St. Louis. He now has a .423 wOBA and a .190 ISO over the last two weeks. The biggest reason why he is listed as the featured play is his price tag. He is much cheaper than the other Rockies’ bats and he should be hitting clean-up once again. Michael Wacha has pitched well this season, but the Rockies are terrific at home.

Additional Plays:

Troy Tulowitzki (FD: $4700, DK: $5500)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 421 — wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 122

Nolan Arenado (FD: $4100, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 508 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.229 — wRC+: 107

Charlie Blackmon (FD: $4000, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 657 — wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 113

DJ LeMahieu (FD: $3400, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 563 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.100 — wRC+: 81

Ben Paulsen (FD: $3000, DK: $3200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 110 — wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.216 — wRC+: 130


Texas at Oakland – 10:05 PM EST

Texas Oakland
texasmlb Nick Martinez oaklandmlb Sonny Gray
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK (-180) 7.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.260 0.78 0.344 0.127 SP vs. Left 0.211 0.606 0.275 0.211
SP vs. Right 0.266 0.731 0.322 0.127 SP vs. Right 0.236 0.597 0.27 0.211
Batter Splits TEX BvP TEX vs R Batter Splits OAK BvP OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Martinez (FD: $6300, DK: $5800)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 205.2 — SIERA: 5.02 — K%: 13.1% — BB%: 8.5% — FB Rate: 43.1% — HR/FB: 7.8%
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.2 — SIERA: 4.47 — K%: 18.8% — BB%: 9.0% — FB Rate: 44.6% — HR/FB: 12.2%

Oakland Athletics Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 17.3% (Rank: 4)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 17.3% (Rank: 5)
Pitchers per PA: 3.87 (Rank: 6)

Analysis: Martinez should be avoided tonight. Not only does he have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any qualified starter, but he also draws one of the worst matchups on the schedule. The A’s are ranked 6th in wOBA (.322) and 4th in strikeout rate (17.3%) against right-handed pitching this season. He’s one of the largest underdogs on the board.

Pitcher Rating:33.8


Sonny Gray (FD: $10300, DK: $10100)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 301.0 — SIERA: 3.49 — K%: 21.1% — BB%: 7.8% — FB Rate: 27.2% — HR/FB: 7.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.0 — SIERA: 2.69 — K%: 23.8% — BB%: 4.9% — FB Rate: 25.3% — HR/FB: 9.1%

Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 20)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.330 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 23)
Pitchers per PA: 3.82 (Rank: 11)

Analysis: Gray is having another terrific season and he comes into tonight’s contest in great form. Over the last 30 days, he has a 2.69 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.8%. Gray always seems to pitch well at home, but he does draw a fairly tough matchup against a surging Rangers’ offense. There is nothing wrong with Gray tonight, but he seems a bit overpriced for his matchup. Once again, I’d rather target Corey Kluber or Francisco Liriano.

Pitcher Rating:78.7

Batter Grind Down

Texas

NONE – The Rangers have really hit the ball well recently (ranked 8th in wOBA over the last 14 days), but Sonny Gray is dominant at home. He has also held left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA since the start of 2014.


Oakland

Billy Burns (FD: $3200, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF

2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 97 — wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.118 — wRC+: 133
Last 14 Days: PA: 59 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.161 — wRC+: 140

Analysis: Burns just continues to hit. He has a .354 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and a .364 wOBA over the last two weeks of play. Nick Martinez doesn’t strike out many batters and he really struggled with left-handed hitters. That’s a great combination for the A’s, who often make great contact as a team.

Additional Plays:

Josh Reddick (FD: $3200, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 446 — wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.248 — wRC+: 164

Stephen Vogt (FD: $3200, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 402 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 137

Ben Zobrist (FD: $2600, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 550 — wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.126 — wRC+: 103


Arizona at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST

Arizona LA Dodgers
arizonamlb Robbie Ray ladodgersmlb Carlos Frias
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD (-160) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.341 0.902 0.390 0.152 SP vs. Left 0.346 0.872 0.383 0.127
SP vs. Right 0.32 0 0.407 0.152 SP vs. Right 0.233 0.631 0.279 0.218
Batter Splits ARI BvP ARI vs R Batter Splits LAD BvP LA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Robbie Ray (FD: $6000, DK: $5000)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 39.2 — SIERA: 4.42 — K%: 15.6% — BB%: 6.7% — FB Rate: 39.9% — HR/FB: 9.1%
Last 30 Days: IP: 5.0 — SIERA: 3.99 — K%: 18.2% — BB%: 4.6% — FB Rate: 37.5% — HR/FB: 0.0%

Los Angeles Dodgers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 16)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 23.1% (Rank: 25)
Pitchers per PA: 3.92 (Rank: 4)

Analysis: Ray is making his third start of the season tonight. He has pitched well, but it will take more than a couple of decent outings before we can trust him in daily fantasy leagues. He’s a large underdog tonight against the Dodgers and he can safely be avoided in all league formats.

Pitcher Rating:42.7


Carlos Frias (FD: $6400, DK: $4300)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 74.2 — SIERA: 3.58 — K%: 16.7% — BB%: 6.2% — FB Rate: 25.3% — HR/FB: 11.3%
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.2 — SIERA: 4.41 — K%: 10.5% — BB%: 7.5% — FB Rate: 19.4% — HR/FB: 9.5%

Arizona Diamondbacks Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 15)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 16)
Pitchers per PA: 3.65 (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Frias has struggled over the last month of play, posting a 4.41 SIERA with a very low strikeout rate of 10.5%. Luckily, he gets to head back home to the pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Frias is a large favorite tonight, but his matchup against the Diamondbacks isn’t ideal. Arizona is ranked 10th in wOBA (.316) against right-handed pitching this season. I should point out that his $4,300 price tag on DraftKings allows you to roster Corey Kluber and load up on the game in Coors Field, which may not be a bad play.

Pitcher Rating:63.3

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

David Peralta (FD: $3200, DK: $3200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 402 — wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.205 — wRC+: 129

Ender Inciarte (FD: $3000, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 485 — wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.107 — wRC+: 92


LA Dodgers

NO ELITE PLAYS

Analysis:

Secondary Plays:

Howie Kendrick (FD: $3100, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 213 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 130

Justin Turner (FD: $2800, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 137 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.157 — wRC+: 129

Alex Guerrero (FD: $2800, DK: $3100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 3B/OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 38 — wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.222 — wRC+: 86


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious