MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 12th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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St. Louis at Cleveland – 6:10 PM EST
| St. Louis | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Lance Lynn |  | Carlos Carrasco | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-125) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.697 | 0.314 | 17.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.192 | 0.516 | 0.236 | 25.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.635 | 0.284 | 23.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.221 | 0.566 | 0.252 | 27.20% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Lance Lynn (FanDuel: $8200, DraftKings: $8800)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 2.99 — K Rate: 28.4% — K/9: 10.7 — BB Rate: 6.8% — GB Rate: 37.6%
2014: SIERA: 3.84 — K Rate: 20.9% — K/9: 8.00 — BB Rate: 8.3% — GB Rate: 44.3%
Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 16.4% (Rank: 4)
Analysis: Lynn gets the start in the Cardinals’ series opener against the Indians in Cleveland. He has pitched well this season with a 2.99 SIERA and a K/9 of 10.7. Unlike his teammate Shelby Miller, he does possess elite strikeout potential. This is not the matchup to pay up for Lynn though, as the Indians have plenty of left-handed hitters in their lineup. Cleveland is currently ranked 14th in wOBA (.314) against right-handed pitching, striking out at the fourth-lowest rate (16.4%) of any team.
Pitcher Rating:63.2
Carlos Carrasco (FD: $8800, DK: $8400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 2.72 — K Rate: 29.2% — K/9: 10.99 — BB Rate: 6.7% — GB Rate: 50.7%
2014: SIERA: 2.58 — K Rate: 26.5% — K/9: 9.40 — BB Rate: 5.5% — GB Rate: 52.8%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.337 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 3)
Analysis: Carrasco has had some awful luck in his last few starts. His 4.71 ERA does not tell the entire story. Through his first six starts, Carrasco has posted a 2.72 SIERA with a K/9 of 11.0. He doesn’t walk many batters and he produces a lot of ground-ball outs. He draws a tough matchup against the Cardinals tonight, but the upside with Carrasco is still there. He may not be worth the expensive price tag in cash games, but he’s definitely worth a look in tournament play.
Pitcher Rating:71.6
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
NONE
Cleveland
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Michael Brantley (FD: $4300, DK: $5100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.385
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.197 — OBP: 0.388
Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST
| Toronto | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Mark Buehrle |  | Chris Tillman | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BAL (-118) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.718 | 0.318 | 14.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.670 | 0.299 | 17.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.289 | 0.752 | 0.332 | 13.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.672 | 0.299 | 17.40% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Mark Buehrle (FD: $7300, DK: $5100)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.92 — K Rate: 9.1% — K/9: 3.82 — BB Rate: 5.2% — GB Rate: 43.8%
2014: SIERA: 4.32 — K Rate: 13.9% — K/9: 5.30 — BB Rate: 5.4% — GB Rate: 43.7%
Baltimore Orioles vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 16.2% (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Buehrle was already an easy pitcher to avoid in 2014 and now that his strikeouts have dipped even lower, there is no reason that he should even be on your radar. He currently has a 4.92 SIERA with a low K/9 of 3.8. He doesn’t strike out nearly enough batters to make up for the mistakes that he makes. He can safely be avoided tonight against the Orioles in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards.
Pitcher Rating:32.5
Chris Tillman (FD: $6700, DK: $6400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 5.20 — K Rate: 16.3% — K/9: 6.54 — BB Rate: 12.8% — GB Rate: 36.4%
2014: SIERA: 4.26 — K Rate: 17.2% — K/9: 6.51 — BB Rate: 7.6% — GB Rate: 40.6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 20)
Analysis: Variance will eventually catch up to you in baseball. After getting “lucky” last season with an ERA that was a full run lower than his SIERA, he has been “unlucky” this season with an ERA that is a full run higher than his SIERA. He has a mediocre K/9 and a high walk rate. He also draws a tough matchup against the Blue Jays, who are ranked seventh in wOBA (.325) against right-handed pitching this season. Both pitchers should be avoided in a battle between these two AL East juggernauts.
Pitcher Rating:43.5
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Jose Bautista (FD: $4800, DK: $5400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.385
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.227 — OBP: 0.391
Analysis: Bautista was not in the lineup on Monday night, but it wasn’t due to an injury. It was just a regular day off for the Blue Jays’ All-Star outfielder. He draws a favorable matchup against Chris Tillman and he gets to face him in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Bautista has hit right-handed pitching well this season, posting a .381 wOBA and a .250 ISO.
Secondary Plays:
Josh Donaldson (FD: $3800, DK: $5500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.238 — OBP: 0.359
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.149 — OBP: 0.329
Devon Travis (FD: $3500, DK: $3300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.207 — OBP: 0.378
Baltimore
Adam Jones (FD: $3700, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.645 — ISO: 0.533 — OBP: 0.529
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.434 — ISO: 0.260 — OBP: 0.399
Analysis: At the very last minute, I swapped out Adam Jones for Joc Pederson last night. It was the right move given the matchups, but it certainly stung a bit when Jones hit yet another home run. He draws a fantastic matchup against Mark Buehrle tonight, who has given up a .343 wOBA to right-handed hitters since the start of 2014. Don’t be afraid to load up on all of the right-handed hitters in this Orioles’ lineup tonight.
Secondary Plays:
Manny Machado (FD: $3500, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.150 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.190
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.281 — ISO: 0.125 — OBP: 0.277
Steve Pearce (FD: $2900, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.197 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.278
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.472 — ISO: 0.378 — OBP: 0.405
Delmon Young (FD: $2300, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.059 — OBP: 0.389
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.141 — OBP: 0.299
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM EST
| Pittsburgh | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | A.J. Burnett |  | Sean O’Sullivan | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (-164) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.785 | 0.350 | 19.1% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.713 | 0.316 | 21.5% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
A.J. Burnett (FD: $8200, DK: $8200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.52 — K Rate: 20.5% — K/9: 7.34 — BB Rate: 8.0% — GB Rate: 59.4%
2014: SIERA: 4.00 — K Rate: 20.3% — K/9: 8.00 — BB Rate: 10.3% — GB Rate: 50.9%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.258 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 16)
Analysis: Burnett has yet to give up more than two runs in any of his six starts this season. That’s a far cry from the inconsistent Burnett that we saw on the mound last season. Burnett currently owns a 3.52 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.3. He gets to face the team that he pitched for last season, as he takes on the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are a terrific pitching matchup, as they are ranked dead last in wOBA (.258) against right-handed pitching this season. Burnett deserves consideration in both cash games and tournaments tonight.
Pitcher Rating:74.4
Sean O’Sullivan (FD: $5500, DK: $5200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.21 — K Rate: 14.3% — K/9: 5.73 — BB Rate: 6.1% — GB Rate: 56.8%
2014: SIERA: 4.31 — K Rate: 13.5% — K/9: 4.97 — BB Rate: 3.9% — GB Rate: 39.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.287 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 14)
Analysis: O’Sullivan is expected to get the start tonight for the Phillies and this breakdown is pretty simple. Despite a favorable matchup against the Pirates, he can safely be avoided in all league formats. He provides little upside in terms of strikeouts and the Pirates’ offense finally appears to be breaking out of it’s slump.
Pitcher Rating:34.3
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Andrew McCutchen (FD: $3800, DK: $5300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.316
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.415 — ISO: 0.225 — OBP: 0.415
Analysis: McCutchen has gotten off to a very slow start this season, but he has turned it around in his six games with eight hits, three walks, and four runs scored. He offers power (.395 wOBA against right-handed pitching since the start of 2014) and speed (19 stolen bases during that stretch). He also draws a favorable matchup against Sean O’Sullivan.
Secondary Plays:
Gregory Polanco (FD: $3100, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.336
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.123 — OBP: 0.342
Neil Walker (FD: $3000, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.152 — OBP: 0.379
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.222 — OBP: 0.339
Pedro Alvarez (FD: $2900, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.229 — OBP: 0.330
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.195 — OBP: 0.330
Philadelphia
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
NONE
Minnesota at Detroit – 7:08 PM EST
| Minnesota | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Kyle Gibson |  | Alfredo Simon | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| DET (-137) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.267 | 0.706 | 0.315 | 8.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.715 | 0.313 | 15.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.650 | 0.291 | 20.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.665 | 0.296 | 15.90% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Kyle Gibson (FD: $6200, DK: $5700)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 5.50 — K Rate: 7.1% — K/9: 2.72 — BB Rate: 9.7% — GB Rate: 51.6%
2014: SIERA: 4.18 — K Rate: 14.1% — K/9: 5.37 — BB Rate: 7.5% — GB Rate: 54.4%
Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Until it changes, I will continue to quote this statistic: Kyle Gibson is walking more batters than he is striking out. That’s a huge red flag. On the season, he has a 5.50 SIERA with an extremely low K/9 of 2.7. We should steer clear of him tonight against the Tigers, who are ranked eighth in wOBA (.324) against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:25.3
Alfredo Simon (FD: $7800, DK: $5000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.35 — K Rate: 15.2% — K/9: 5.65 — BB Rate: 6.6% — GB Rate: 46.0%
2014: SIERA: 4.17 — K Rate: 15.5% — K/9: 5.82 — BB Rate: 6.9% — GB Rate: 48.2%
Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 23.5% (Rank: 27)
Analysis: Simon has been a serviceable starter for the Tigers this season. He’s not going to overwhelm his opponents with his pitches, but he can pitch fairly deep into games and give his team a chance to win. He draws a favorable matchup against the Twins, who are ranked 23rd in wOBA (.298) against right-handed pitching this season. He should see plenty of run support and he could be worth a look as an SP2 tonight on DraftKings ($5,000).
Pitcher Rating:57.2
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Brian Dozier (FD: $3500, DK: $4900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.208 — OBP: 0.315
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.161 — OBP: 0.349
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera (FD: $4600, DK: $5100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.227 — OBP: 0.412
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.203 — OBP: 0.374
Analysis: Cabrera has flown under the radar of much of the season. Granted, first base is the deepest position in daily fantasy baseball, but he’s still Miguel FREAKIN Cabrera. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Kyle Gibson and he gets to face him at home in Comerica Park. Cabrera has a .410 wOBA and a .227 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Secondary Plays:
Victor Martinez (FD: $3500, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.197 — ISO: 0.014 — OBP: 0.279
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.199 — OBP: 0.402
Anthony Gose (FD: $3200, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.378
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: 0.074 — OBP: 0.329
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM EST
| NY Yankees | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | Nathan Eovaldi |  | Chris Archer | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-127) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.293 | 0.768 | 0.336 | 16.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.624 | 0.283 | 21.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.688 | 0.304 | 17.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.685 | 0.307 | 20.80% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | TB BvP | TB vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Nathan Eovaldi (FD: $7600, DK: $6500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.10 — K Rate: 16.8% — K/9: 6.62 — BB Rate: 6.0% — GB Rate: 45.5%
2014: SIERA: 3.91 — K Rate: 16.6% — K/9: 6.40 — BB Rate: 5.0% — GB Rate: 44.8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 22)
Analysis: Eovaldi has posted nearly identical numbers to those of 2014, which is impressive considering the fact that he came over from the National League. In his first six starts, he has posted a 4.10 SIERA with a K/9 of 6.6. Those are mediocre numbers in daily fantasy baseball. He does draw a favorable matchup against the Rays, but there isn’t enough upside to warrant fantasy consideration tonight.
Pitcher Rating:58.8
Chris Archer (FD: $8700, DK: $8300)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 2.82 — K Rate: 29.9% — K/9: 10.8 — BB Rate: 8.4% — GB Rate: 54.5%
2014: SIERA: 3.80 — K Rate: 21.1% — K/9: 8.00 — BB Rate: 8.8% — GB Rate: 46.5%
New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 10)
Analysis: After giving up a combined three earned runs in his first five starts, Archer has given up nine earned runs in his last two. The biggest red flag during those two starts was the fact that he walked eight batters. When Archer’s command goes, he has a very hard time getting out of innings. He offers great strikeout potential (29.9% strikeout rate this season), but he faces a very capable Yankees’ offense. There are safer pitching options for cash games tonight.
Pitcher Rating:73.3
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Jacoby Ellsbury (FD: $4300, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.071 — OBP: 0.411
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.137 — OBP: 0.316
Tampa Bay
Kevin Kiermaier (FD: $2700, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.254 — OBP: 0.296
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.218 — OBP: 0.339
Analysis: Back to the well with this one. Kiermaier is still salary cap-friendly on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he’ll likely be batting leadoff tonight against Nathan Eovaldi, who has given up a .349 wOBA to left-handed hitters since the start of 2014. Kiermaier offers decent speed and he has some decent power in his bat as well, as he has a .254 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Secondary Plays:
Evan Longoria (FD: $3700, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.202 — OBP: 0.340
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.301
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