MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 22 - Page Two

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-04-22 22:58:25

NY Yankees at Detroit

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Warren – Warren has pitched very well out of the bullpen in each of his first two seasons with the Yankees, but the right-hander was pounded by the Orioles the last time he toed the rubber. Warren really struggled on the road last season, posting an 0-5 record with a 4.38 ERA in 37 innings of work and hasn’t shown any ability to pitch deep into games as a starter. The matchup in Detroit against one of the league’s most dangerous batting lineups is certainly a red-flag and I’ll be avoiding Warren in all formats. Rating = 3

Salaries: $7200 FD, $4200 DK, $4750 FA, $8500 DD, $70000 FF

David Price – Price surrendered his first earned run of the season in his last start, but enters tonight’s game sporting a ridiculous 0.40 ERA and 0.81 WHIP (with 20 strikeouts) in his first three outings. His 9.82 K/9 was among the game’s elite in 2014 and he’ll have the luxury of taking on this left-handed heavy New York Yankees lineup at the spacious Comerica Park tonight. With the exception of Jacoby Ellsbury, Price has dominated most of this Yankees lineup in the past. The other “aces” in action tonight find themselves in tough pitching battles, making Price one of the night’s best cash game choices. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $11400 FD, $10700 DK, $7300 FA, $19950 DD, $162400 FF

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Alex Rodriguez

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – Miggy enters tonight’s game sporting a .389 batting average on the young season and posted a .385 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and owned a .407 wOBA at Comerica Park. With an inexperienced 24-year-old on the mound for the Yankees, Cabrera looms as the most dangerous (and well protected) hitter of the bunch.

Secondary Plays:

Anthony Gose, J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler

Atlanta at NY Mets

Pitcher Grind Down

Eric Stults – Stults posted less than jaw-dropping numbers last season (4.30 ERA and 1.38 WHIP) last season, and now no longer has Petco Park to call home. He’s already served up three home runs in his two starts this season and was burned by the long-ball in 2014 (1.33 HR/9). He’s one of the softest throwing starting pitchers in the league and rarely misses enough bats to be a fantasy asset. He’ll face a Mets team that owned the second worst wOBA against left-handed pitching last season, but he’s still not an appealing fantasy option. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6100 FD, $5800 DK, $5000 FA, $8500 DD, $67600 FF

Dillon Gee – Gee’s first two starts this season find him owning an unsightly 7.59 ERA, but nearly all of that damage has come via the long ball and his 2.78 xFIP suggests better results are in his future. Gee has thrived at Citi Field in his career where he owns a 3.41 ERA over 351.1 innings and mowed this Atlanta team down in their two meetings last season, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The Braves owned just a .290 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and also really struggled away from Turner Field (.294 wOBA) so if you can overlook his mediocre strikeout numbers, he’s a decent option on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6600 FD, $6500 DK, $5000 FA, $9950 DD, $93300 FF

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Nick Markakis – With a single and a walk last night, Markakis extended his hitting streak to six games and now rocks a .372 batting average with his new team. He’s always handled the bat better versus right-handed pitching and he’s locked in right now against them, going 11 for 23 with 8 walks to start the season

Secondary Plays:

Freddie Freeman

NY Mets

Michael Cuddyer – Granted it was helped by playing half his games at Coors Field, but Cuddyer posted an insane .547 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season and now owns a .886 career OPS against southpaws. He’s been red hot to start the 2015 season and still sports a very reasonable asking price on most sites.

Secondary Plays:

None

Boston at Tampa Bay

Pitcher Grind Down

Joe Kelly – Kelly was a fan favorite in St. Louis prior to being shipped off to Boston last season, but appeared to take a step backwards in 2014. Kelly’s first two starts this season give some reason for optimism as he’s allowed just three earned runs and nine baserunners through 12.2 innings. Armed with a fastball that averaged 94.7 MPH last season, Kelly has shown flashes of brilliance in his career, but his spotty command has frequently gotten him into trouble and/or driven up his pitch counts rapidly. He forces a ton of groundballs, and this matchup against a Tampa Bay team that has been swinging and missing at an alarming rate thus far this season. He’s not on my cash game radar, but he’s a GPP option. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7100 FD, $6400 DK, $5500 FA, $10250 DD, $75400 FF

Nate Karns – Karns was knocked around in his first start this season, but has only allowed two hits in each of his last two outings (albeit both of those hits cleared the fences against the Yankees on Friday). Karns owned a rather unimpressive 5.08 ERA over 145.1 innings at AAA Durham last season. The matchup tonight against this dangerous Boston lineup is not one to target. Karns has shown plenty of strikeout potential at every stop along his way to the big leagues, but I’m staying far away. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $6000 DK, $5000 FA, $9500 DD, $77700 FF

Batter Grind Down

Boston

David Ortiz – Ortiz is off to a slow start to the season, but Big Papi posted a .364 wOBA against right-handed pitching during the 2014 season and it’s only a matter of time until he starts to heat up. Just be sure he’s in the lineup after appealing a one-game suspension

Secondary Plays:

Pablo Sandoval, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez

Tampa Bay

Kevin Kiermaier – Keep an eye on the Rays lineup, but with a righty on the mound for the Red Sox, Kiermaier becomes a top notch value play if he lands near the top of batting order. Kiermaier led this Tampa team in wOBA against right-handed pitching last season (.362) and owns a 1.049 OPS against them on the young season.

Secondary Plays:

David DeJesus, Steve Souza, Evan Longoria

Cincinnati at Milwaukee

Pitcher Grind Down

Johnny Cueto – His record may be sitting a 0-2 after three starts, but Cueto has pitched very well in all three outings and has already racked up double-digit strikeouts on two occasions. Cueto had a Cy Young caliber season last year (20-9 record with a 2.25 ERA) and absolutely dominated this Milwaukee team in their two meetings last season, picking up a win in both matchups and three runs and nine baserunners in 16 innings. However, he was slightly less effective away from the Great American Ballpark and owns a 4.89 ERA and 1.29 WHIP during his career at Miller Park. The ballpark is a bit of a concern, but he’s posted 8.94 K/9 last season and is still a top-tier option tonight. Rating = 8

Salaries: $10600 FD, $9500 DK, $7450 FA, $17750 DD, $162300 FF

Jimmy Nelson – Nelson is a highly regarded pitching prospect for the Brewers, and despite some mediocre results early in his career, expectations are still fairly high. Nelson absolutely dominated at AAA Nashville last season, posting a 10-2 record with a sparkling 1.46 ERA over 111 innings. He’s added a curveball to his repertoire this season and has relied on it heavily thus far (30% throw rate). The 25-year-old pitcher is still developing and there will certainly be plenty of speed bumps along the way, but his dominance in the minors and his 3.92 xFIP at the big league level are reasons for optimism. Cincinnati owned just a .293 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and their bats were predominately quiet on the road last season, so Nelson, at the very least, is worth a look in GPPs. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7400 FD, $7000 DK, $6250 FA, $12050 DD, $65000 FF

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Joey Votto – Votto is locked in at the plate right now and one of the most professional hitters in baseball. He owns a .319 batting average and a .983 OPS against right-handed pitching and is an on-base machine.

Secondary Plays:

Billy Hamilton Jay Bruce

Milwaukee

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Adam Lind, Aramis Ramirez

Minnesota at Kansas City

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Pelfrey – There are a lot of unappealing options on the mound tonight, but Mike Pelfrey may be the worst (not playing at Coors, at least). With that said, he was terrific against the Indians on Friday night, but even in that outing he didn’t post an impressive night by fantasy standards (6 fantasy points on FanDuel, for example). Pelfrey has never posted a strikeout rate north of 6 K/9 in his career and this Kansas City Royals team struck out less than any team in MLB last season (and own that title thus far in 2015). Kansas City off to a hot start offensively and I’m not only avoiding Pelfrey, but I’m likely stacking against him. Rating = 2

Salaries: $5800 FD, $4100 DK, $4750 FA, $8500 DD, $65000 FF

Jeremy Guthrie – This will be Guthrie’s ninth full season in the big leagues, and not once has the right-hander posted an xFIP below 4.18, and he can be added to the long list of unappealing options taking the mound tonight. His matchup tonight against this somewhat feeble hitting Twins team is nice, but it doesn’t offset the fact that he serves up a ton of fly balls (and home runs) and is always ranks near the bottom of qualified starters in strikeouts. His 4.64 xFIP at home was the second worst in MLB among pitchers with 100 or more innings of work and while he has a decent chance for a “W” here, there’s just not much upside. Rating = 4

Salaries: $8300 FD, $5500 DK, $5250 FA, $8800 DD, $100500 FF

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Kennys Vargas – The switch-hitting Vargas prefers to swing the bat from the left-side of the plate (.788 career OPS) and Jeremy Guthrie has has really struggled with left-handed batters during his career. Lefties posted a .364 wOBA off of Guthrie last season and the big guy is 2 for 6 with a home run off of him.

Secondary Plays:

Joe Mauer, Danny Santana

Kansas City

Lorenzo Cain – Since the beginning of the 2012 season, it’s been right-handed batters feasting on Mike Pelfrey. During that stretch, Pelfrey has allowed right-handers to post a .348 batting average and .868 OPS. Cain looks to have laid stake to the #3 spot in this Kansas City lineup and enters tonight’s game hitting .400 on the young season.

Secondary Plays:

Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez

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