MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 8 - Page Two

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-04-08 19:09:06

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance Lynn – Last night’s postponed game just simply shifted both Lynn and Arrieta back a day for their first starts of the season. Lynn had the best season of his young career in 2014, posting a 15-10 record with a 2.74 ERA while racking up 181 strikeouts in 203.2 innings. While he doesn’t seem to get the respect he deserves, the matchup for him today is tough for several reasons; 1) It may only be a one day delay, but messing with a pitcher’s routine rarely seems to work well, 2) He owns a lifetime 5.04 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in five starts at Wrigley Field and 3) His opponent (Jake Arrieta) is no slouch, and 4) This is not the same Chicago lineup that owned just a .296 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8600 FD, $8600 DK, $14050 DD

Jake Arrieta – Arrieta struggled a bit with Baltimore to begin his career, but he burst onto the scene in the National League last season; posting a 10-5 record with a very impressive 2.53 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 25 starts last season. He’s absolutely owned the St. Louis Cardinals in his career, posting a 2-0 record with a 0.92 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 35 strikeouts in four career meetings (29.1 innings). It’s also worth pointing out his absolute dominance at Wrigley Field last season where he owned a 6-1 record with a 1.46 ERA in 12 home starts. His strikeout rate spiked to an elite 27.2% and he’s a top tier option despite a tough matchup. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8800 FD, $9100 DK, $12700 DD

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Jason Heyward – Heyward racked up three hits in his Cardinals debut on Sunday night and batted .304 against right-handed pitching last season. He’ll be a staple at the top of this Cardinals batting order where he’ll have plenty of RBI and scoring opportunities.

Secondary Plays: Matt Adams, Kolten Wong

Chicago Cubs

Jorge Soler – After mashing right-handed pitching to the tune of a .412 wOBA and .324 ISO last season, a bulked up Jorge Soler raked during spring training and looks poised for a breakout 2015 season. He’ll find himself in the middle of this Cubs order and can send one into the empty bleacher seats in a hurry if Lynn makes a mistake.

Secondary Plays: Anthony Rizzo, Miguel Montero

Texas at Oakland

Pitcher Grind Down

Ross Detwiler – For the first time in his career, Detwiler was used exclusively out of the bullpen by the Nationals last season. However, the Texas Rangers acquired him in the off-season and quickly concentrated on stretching him back out to handle a starters workload. Detwiler has been a serviceable back-of-the-rotation option when given the opportunity, but he’s never posted a strikeout rate over 6.00 K’s/9 at the MLB level and the move to the American League won’t help the soft-tossing lefty’s cause. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5000 FD, $ DK, $4500 FA, $8600 DD, $73400 FF

Scott Kazmir – Kazmir racked up 15 wins last season and posted a very solid 3.55 ERA over 190.1 innings. However, the 2014 season was a tale of two halves for Kazmir as he posted an 11-3 record with a 2.38 ERA in 19 starts to begin the season, but fizzled out and owned a 5.42 ERA in 13 second half starts. His xFIP of 3.59 and a very strong spring are both reasons to expect him to pitch more like he did in the first half of last season. Texas owned just a .294 team wOBA against left-handed pitching last season and the Coliseum is a nice pitching environment. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8400 FD, $7400 DK, $6450 FA, $11700 DD, $107000 FF

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Adrian Beltre – Beltre is one of the few offensive weapons for the Rangers from the right side of the plate and he posted a ridiculous .421 wOBA and great patience (13.6 BB%) against left-handed pitching last season.

Secondary Plays: None

Oakland

Billy Butler – Righties smashed Detwiler to the tune of a .368 wOBA last season and Billy Butler has made millions thanks to his success against left-handed pitching. The portly DH owns a career .912 OPS against southpaws and has found himself hitting cleanup in each of the first two games with his new team.

Secondary Plays: Ben Zobrist, Brett Lawrie

Baltimore at Tampa Bay

Pitcher Grind Down

Miguel Gonzalez – On the surface, Miguel Gonzalez was terrific last season and one of the main reasons for Baltimore’s push into October as he really stepped up his game and posted a 2.19 ERA in 11 second half starts. However, his advanced stats seem to be waiving a red-flag and with his 2014 xFIP sitting 1.23 points higher than his ERA, a regression seems likely. Gonzalez easily has the ability to post a sub-4.00 ERA this season, but his strikeout potential (16.5 K%) leaves a lot to be desired from a fantasy standpoint. The matchup isn’t overly intimidating, and he defeated the Rays on two occasions last season, but his rather low ceiling will likely keep me away. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7300 FD, $6400 DK, $5000 FA, $8500 DD, $84500 FF

Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi quickly found himself on my “never again” list for cash game use last season as he had one of the most inconsistent seasons in recent memory, sprinkling disaster outings around total gems. While the season in general was fine (4.13 ERA), Odorizzi was splendid at Tropicana Field, posting a 2.62 ERA and 102 strikeouts in 99.2 home innings. His 29.9 GB% is horrendous, and considering the matchup against a Baltimore team that smacked more home runs than any other team in MLB last season, he’s a GPP only option here. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7800 FD, $7400 DK, $6150 FA, $12500 DD, $84300 FF

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Chris Davis – Last season was a major disappointment, but “Crush” is still one of the game’s most feared left-handed power hitters and the matchup against fly-ball machine Jake Odorizzi is a nice one. Despite last season’s struggles, Davis still owns a .907 OPS against right-handed pitching over the last three seasons.

Secondary Plays: Alejandro De Aza, Adam Jones

Tampa Bay

Kevin Kiermaier – We’ve seen him the nine hole in both Tampa games thus far, but the Rays used him all over the order last season. While it’s still not clear how the new coaching staff views Kiermaier, he led this Tampa team in wOBA against right-handed pitching last season (.362 wOBA) and left-handed hitters had far more success off of Miguel Gonzalez. Keep an eye on the Rays batting order, as Kiermaier’s performance in last night’s game could very well be enough to get him into the top five of the order.

Secondary Plays: James Loney (if healthy), David DeJesus, Evan Longoria

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana – The 26-year-old Quintana just keeps improving and 2014 was his best season yet. Securing “W’s” hasn’t been easy for the young lefty, but he posted a very impressive 3.32 ERA over 32 starts last season. He’s managed to improve his strikeout rate and decrease his BB/9 rate with each subsequent year in the big leagues and looks poised for a breakout season. However, this Kansas City team was one of the few teams he struggled against in 2014 and the White Sox lost all four games in which he started against them. It’s also worth noting that the Royals owned the lowest strikeout rate in MLB last season (16.3 K%), which is another knock against Quintana tonight. He’s very capable of pitching a gem every time he takes the mound, but I’ll reserve my exposure to him tonight for GPP’s only. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8000 FD, $7700 DK, $6000 FA, $13500 DD, $93400 FF

Danny Duffy – After undergoing Tommy John surgery in May of 2012, Danny Duffy broke out in a big way last season. Despite just a 9-12 record, the 23-year-old posted an excellent 2.53 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 149.1 innings in 2014 and his emergence was one of the main reasons the Royals were able to make a deep run into the post-season. Duffy was dominant down the stretch, posting a 4-3 record with a 2.23 ERA after the All-Star break, but while the home matchup against the White Sox isn’t terrifying, there are a few red flags here. Duffy’s 6.81 K’s/9 last season was easily the lowest he’s had at any level of baseball (and likely due to the loss of 2-3 mph on his fastball) and his 4.42 xFIP is screaming for a regression. He should still be a very serviceable starter for the Royals this season, but temper your expectations. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7800 FD, $7400 DK, $5750 FA, $10600 DD, $75000 FF

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu – Abreu’s destruction of left-handed pitching last season can’t be understated, as the Cuban slugger posted a 1.099 OPS off of southpaws during his rookie campaign and his .309 ISO ranked fifth best among qualified hitters in MLB. In a small sample size, Abreu has hammered Danny Duffy, going 2 for 4 with a home run and a walk.

Secondary Plays: Avisail Garcia, Alexei Ramirez

Kansas City

Alex Rios – 2014 saw nearly all of the power dry up from Rios’ bat, but the veteran outfielder still handled the bat very well against left-handed pitching, posting a .325 average and .381 wOBA against southpaws. He had a terrific debut with his new team on opening day, going 3-4 with a home run.

Salvador Perez – He struggled against left-handed pitching last season, but don’t let that fool you. Perez sports a .307 career average and .852 OPS against southpaws. He’s also had success against Quintana in the past (10 for 30 with three doubles, a triple, and a pair of home runs) and is a great option as a value catcher.

Secondary Plays: Lorenzo Cain

Cleveland at Houston

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco – Carrasco entered the 2014 season sporting an unsightly 11-18 career record with a 5.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, but was able to “flip the switch” and became rather dominant in 2014. Carrasco is equipped with a fastball that can reach the upper 90’s, but after years of struggling with his command, he was finally able to bring his BB/9 down to a very acceptable rate of 1.95. While this Astros team may be improving, they’re still projected to be one of the lowest scoring teams in MLB this season and Carrasco dominated them both times he faced them last season. His 26.5% strikeout percentage makes him an ideal GPP target. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $8700 FD, $8800 DK, $6500 FA, $13350 DD, $98500 FF

Scott Feldman – Despite sporting a 3.74 ERA in 2014, it’s just really hard to get excited about Scott Feldman as a fantasy pitching option. His strikeout rate dipped to a pedestrian 5.34 K’s/9 last season and his 4.19 xFIP is probably a better indicator of what to expect from him this season. With that said, he did mow this Indians team down in their only meeting last season (one run on four hits over eight innings). I just don’t see much upside here though and I won’t be targeting him anywhere. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6900 FD, $5900 DK, $4850 FA, $10650 DD, $70400 FF

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Michael Bourn – Bourn, a former Astro, just wrapped up a terrific spring and has been on record this offseason stating that he’s focused on once again being a force on the basepaths this season. Luckily for him, Scott Feldman allowed more bases stolen off of him than any other pitcher in 2014 (35 SB’s on 42 attempts).

Michael Brantley – Brantley was a “poor man’s” Mike Trout last season, racking up fantasy points in just about every conceivable way. He posted an impressive .401 wOBA against right-handed pitchers and facing Scott Feldman is certainly not a turn-off.

Secondary Plays: Jason Kipnis, Brandon Moss

Houston

George Springer – The young phenom came up with a key RBI for the Astros on opening day, and sported an impressive .355 wOBA and .251 ISO against right-handed pitching last season. He just wrapped up a spring season that saw him post a .936 OPS and will be stationed right in the heart of the Houston order.

Secondary Plays: Chris Carter, Jose Altuve

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