MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 8th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-04-10 18:29:05

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any fantasy point average listed uses FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Minnesota at Detroit

Pitcher Grind Down

Ricky Nolasco – After a solid 2013 season as a member of both Miami and Los Angeles, things turned ugly for Nolasco last season as he posted an unsightly 5.38 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 27 starts. While his xFIP of 3.97 suggests that he was victimized by some bad luck, it’ll be hard to trust him this afternoon against a Tigers team that owned a .327 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and who trailed only Colorado in team wOBA at home. To make things worse for his outlook today, he sported an ugly 7.78 ERA in 11 daytime starts last season and his pedestrian strikeout rate leaves a lot to be desired. Rating = 2.5

Salaries: $5800 FD, $6100 DK, $11300 DD

Anibal Sanchez – A pectoral injury forced Anibal Sanchez out for the majority of the last two months of the season in 2014, but despite a bit of a rough spring, all reports coming from the Detroit camp are that he’s back to 100%. Sanchez owns a 15-10 record with a 3.15 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 31 career starts at the rather spacious Comerica Park and has flashed elite strikeout potential (9.99 K’s/9 in 2013). He’s absolutely dominated this Minnesota Twins team recently, posting a 2.01 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and racking up 45 strikeouts in 40.1 innings against them since the beginning of the 2013 season. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $8500 FD, $8300 DK, $14350 DD

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Kennys Vargas – Vargas is too risky for my liking in cash games, but the big guy led the Twins in wOBA against right-handed pitching last season (.387 wOBA) and wore out Detroit pitching (a .349 average and 1.023 OPS in 43 AB’s). Sanchez doesn’t serve up many home runs, but Vargas’ power is real.

Secondary Plays: None

Detroit

Victor Martinez – Lefties tagged Nolasco for a .396 wOBA last season and the switch-hitting V-Mart led this Detroit team in wOBA against right-handed pitching last season (.390 wOBA). Martinez has had plenty of success off of Nolasco in their previous outings as well, reaching base in seven of nine plate appearances against him.

Miguel Cabrera – Nolasco may have been worse against lefties, but that doesn’t mean he was tough on righties (.355 wOBA). Miggy was quiet on opening day, but posted a .407 wOBA last season at Comerica Park and is one of the most consistent hitters in the game today.

Secondary Plays: J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Rajai Davis, Alex Avila, Nick Castellanos

San Francisco at Arizona

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Heston – With Matt Cain scratched for this start thanks to flexor-tendon strain (uh oh), the Giants have summonzed from AAA to make the start tonight. The right hander posted a solid 3.38 ERA last season in the Pacific Coast League, but he’s not an overly highly touted prospect and he managed to toss just four innings in his only previous MLB start. He struggles to hit 90 MPH with his fast ball and offers rather uninspiring strikeout numbers, so i’ll be staying away. Rating = 2

Jeremy Hellickson – The former AL Rookie of the Year winner has fallen on tough times lately, posting ugly ERA’s in each of the last two seasons (4.52 and 5.17, respectively). With that said, his xFIP has been substantially lower than his real ERA in both seasons and there’s hope that the move to the National League could pay dividends. He shown flashes of dominance at times and his 7.63 K/9 last season is acceptable. However, his control has been a consistent source of his struggles and he serves up a ton of fly balls. Chase Field will be less forgiving than Tropicana Field and, after an unimpressive spring, he’s a very risky option tonight. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6000 FD, $6100 DK, $5800 FA, $9100 DD, $72300 FF

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Buster Posey – Righties absolutely annihilated Hellickson last season to the tune of a .356 average (and a .967 OPS) and Posey showed off his power last night. Posey owns a .324 average in 142 career AB’s at Chase Field and is one of the top catching options on the board.

Secondary Plays: Angel Pagan

Arizona

Paul Goldschmidt – I usually prefer to roll with Goldie when he’s facing a lefty, but he becomes an elite play at 1B with Heston making only his second MLB start tonight. Goldschmidt owned a .386 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and posted a .414 wOBA at Chase Field

Jake Lamb – Lamb hasn’t done much at the MLB level yet in his young career, but he’s raked for years in the minor leagues and homered last night. He’s cheap across the industry and his propensity to smack the longball makes him a nice GPP target.

Secondary Plays: David Peralta, Mark Trumbo

Toronto at NY Yankees

Pitcher Grind Down

R.A. Dickey – After a small step backwards in 2013, Dickey seemed to get back on track last season and finished 2014 sporting a solid 3.71 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. While it’s highly unlikely the 40 year-old Dickey can ever come close to matching his Cy Young season in 2012, he does own a 67-54 record with a 3.37 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 159 starts since joining the Mets prior to the 2011 season. He was terrific down the stretch last season, posting a 4-1 record with a 2.48 ERA in five September starts and also mowed down the Yankees in both starts against them. Trusting a knuckleballer is never easy, but there is certainly plenty of support from the numbers for this pick. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8100 FD, $8000 DK, $6000 FA, $11550 DD, $104400 FF

Michael Pineda – The 2014 season became a lost cause when numerous injuries (as well as a suspension) limited Pineda to just 13 starts. However, in those 13 starts he flashed the type of stuff that Yankees were hoping for when they shipped Jesus Montero off to Seattle in 2012 (1.89 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over 76.1 innings). Pineda has been brilliant once again this spring, and with all signs pointing to him finally being at 100% health, he’s a prime candidate for a major breakout season in 2015. Unfortunately, the matchup tonight against an extremely powerful Toronto team that ranked second in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching last season is a tough time to unleash him in your cash games. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7900 FD, $7500 DK, $6100 FA, $13450 DD, $110500 FF

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

When healthy, Pineda has been a handful for the opposition, as opposing batters are hitting just .208 off of him during his career. Bautista, Donaldson and Encarnacion all possess elite power potential, but this tough matchup makes them GPP plays for me today.

Secondary Plays: None

NY Yankees

The knuckleball can be inconsistent at times, but it doesn’t discriminate between left and right handed hitters when it’s working. While the Yankees could easily score some runs here, I’m just not confident enough to roll with any of them in cash games.

Secondary Plays: None

NY Mets at Washington

Pitcher Grind Down

Jacob Degrom – Last year’s NL Rookie of the Year will look to cement his status as one of the top young arms in the game this season, and his work this spring has kept the New York faithful optimistic. With a 9-6 record, 2.69 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, he certainly deserved his Rookie of the Year honors, but it was his work after the All-Star break that really has New Yorkers excited; a 6-1 record with a 2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 9.72 K’s/9. I won’t shy away from using deGrom this season, but there are a few things working against him tonight; 1) He’ll be opposed by Jordan Zimmermann, so securing a “W” won’t come easy, and 2) He’s been much less effective away from Citi Field during his young career. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9000 FD, $8500 DK, $6000 FA, $15050 DD, $114400 FF

Jordan Zimmermann – Zimmermann may be the “third” starter for the Nationals, but after posting a 14-5 record with a 2.66 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 2014, he’s one of the better pitchers on the board when he takes the mound every five days. Zimmermann was nearly unhittable after the All-Star break last season, amassing an 8-0 record with a miniscule 2.18 ERA and .89 WHIP over 13 starts. He also destroyed this Mets team last year, posting a 3-0 record with a 2.13 ERA against them in four starts. Rating = 9

Salaries: $9900 FD, $9200 DK, $6500 FA, $15250 DD, $124600 FF

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Lucas Duda proved to be a capable power-hitter versus right-handed pitching last season, but there are just too many nice options on the board for me to pick on Jordan Zimmermann tonight.

Secondary Plays:None

Washington

Bryce Harper – Harper homered on opening day and owns an .871 OPS against right-handed pitching during his brief career. If deGrom’s road struggles carry over to this season, Harper can make him pay in a hurry.

Secondary Plays: None

Boston at Philadelphia

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello – After shipping off Yoenis Cespedes to Detroit to acquire the pitching services of Rick Porcello, the Boston front office is hoping the 26-year-old right hander can build on his impressive 2014 campaign. While Porcello isn’t going to dominate the opposition with strikeouts, he’s posted an xFIP of well under four in each of the last three seasons and just finished up the best season of his young career. Tonight he’ll face an aging Phillies lineup that posted just a .294 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and he’ll see a value bonus by pitching in the spacious Citizens Bank Park (without a DH). The lack of strikeouts puts a cap on his ceiling, but I’m expecting a nice outing tonight. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $7900 FD, $6900 DK, $6000 FA, $11700 DD, $89700 FF

Aaron Harang – After a very solid year in Atlanta last season, the Phillies signed “The Harangatang” to a one-year, $5 million deal this offseason. On the surface, Harang’s 3.57 ERA over 204.1 innings last season makes this deal look like a complete bargain. However, he only managed to pick up three wins after the All-Star break and his 6.4% HR/FB ratio is almost certain to regress towards his career average of 10.2%. He’ll be facing a re-tooled Boston lineup that should prove to be much more intimidating than last year’s version and Harang doesn’t possess the strikeout upside to offset some of the risk here. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $6300 DK, $5000 FA, $9750 DD, $81000 FF

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Hanley Ramirez – Hanley was slow out of the gates in 2014 but flourished down the stretch, hitting .352 in the final month of the regular season and following that up with a .429 average in the Division Series against the Cardinals. The Red Sox new shortstop has smacked Aaron Harang around in their previous meetings, going 10 for 29 with a double and five long balls.

Editor’s Note: David Ortiz is not in the starting lineup tonight for Boston.

David Ortiz – Lefties owned a .330 wOBA off of Harang last season and Big Papi posted a .361 wOBA against left-handed pitching in 2014 and is always a threat to send a moonshot into the right field bleachers. He also has BvP in his favor as he’s 5 for 11 with three doubles and a home run off of Harang.

Secondary Plays: Pablo Sandoval, Mookie Betts

Philadelphia

Chase Utley – Porcello’s biggest weakness has come against left-handed batters, as they’re hitting .297 off of him during his career and Chase Utley tore the cover off the baseball during spring training. Last season, Utley led this Phillies team in wOBA versus right-handed pitching (.333 wOBA) and remains a staple in the top half of this Philadelphia batting order.

Secondary Plays: Carlos Ruiz, Ben Revere, Ryan Howard

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

Have a Question for Notorious about Today’s Games? Check out Expert Chat

Monday through Friday for FanDuel and DraftKings Incentives Members – 6:00 PM EST