MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 20th Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-08-20 18:12:11

Houston at NY Yankees

Houston					NY Yankees
Scott Feldman		Vegas Moneyline			Michael Pineda		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYY (-180)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.277	0.746	0.327	10.80%	SP vs. Left	0.234	0.712	0.308	24.50%
SP vs. Right	0.270	0.792	0.347	14.50%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Scott Feldman – Feldman takes the mound tonight as the the Astros take on the Yankees in Yankee Stadium. Feldman owns a 4.45 ERA (4.58 xFIP) on the season with a low K/9 of only 4.9. The Yankees are a team that makes great contact and subsequently, they don’t strike out very often. There is more risk than reward tonight with Feldman as the LH hitters of the Yankees could make it tough on him with the short porch in right field. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5500 FD, $9350 DD, $5700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $9350 FTD

• Michael Pineda – Pineda pitched pretty well in his first game in almost 4 months. He only gave up 1 earned run over 5 innings of work against the Orioles while racking up 4 strikeouts. He only threw 67 pitches though and the Yankees are likely going to slowly ease him back in to things. I expect him to maybe see around 80 pitches tonight which really caps his fantasy upside. He’s a large favorite, but I think a perfect game from him would be around 5 innings with 4-5 K’s and a win. Rating = 6

Salaries: $5400 FD, $13200 DD, $8900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $13200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Houston

There really aren’t any options that stand out on the Astros tonight. Jose Altuve is always in play at 2B, but I think he is a bit overpriced for his matchup tonight against Pineda.

NY Yankees

Brett Gardner – Gardner and Ellsbury are two very similar players and it’s always hard deciding between the two as they both play the same position and they are both similarly price across the industry. I’m giving a slight edge to Gardner though thanks to the fact that he has a career .471 OBP against Feldman.

Additional Plays: Jacoby Ellsbury, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran

Atlanta at Pittsburgh

Atlanta					Pittsburgh
Alex Wood		Vegas Moneyline			Gerrit Cole		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		PIT (-120)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.262	0.692	0.310	24.10%	SP vs. Left	0.258	0.734	0.331	20.60%
SP vs. Right	0.247	0.684	0.304	23.30%	SP vs. Right	0.246	0.721	0.320	22.20%
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Alex Wood – Wood has pitched well in his last 4 starts. He has only given up a combined 5 earned runs while striking out 26 batters. He’s faced some tough opponents during that stretch too. On the season he owns a 3.07 ERA (3.47 xFIP) with a K/9 of 8.8. He’s not afraid to attack hitters and pound the strike zone which is why he has such a high K-rate despite a producing swinging-strike rate under 10%. I would like Wood a lot more if McCutchen was still out though. With him back in the lineup, I’ll probably be avoiding Wood against the speedy Pirates. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $8000 FD, $15750 DD, $7300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $15750 FTD

• Gerrit Cole – Cole will be making his first start since July 4th. He was activated off of the DL and will take the injured Charlie Morton’s spot in the rotation. Cole pitched well in his two rehab starts, but it’s still unclear if he is going to be on a pitch count for tonight’s game against the Braves. My guess is that he’ll see around 90 pitches or so. While I do like the matchup against a strikeout happy Braves ball club, the questions of rust and a possible pitch count make me want to wait a start or two before targeting Cole in cash games. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8100 FD, $15800 DD, $9000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $15800 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – Freeman is really the only Braves bat that I’m going to have any exposure to tonight. He’s been locked in with 14 hits (5 XBH’s) over his last 10 games and gets to face the RHP Cole tonight.

Additional Plays: None

Pittsburgh

Josh Harrison – Harrison is batting .316 with a .348 wOBA against southpaws this season. He’s been a good source of power (10 HR’s) and speed (14 SB’s) and he single-handedly kept the Pirates offense afloat when McCutchen was out. His price has finally come down a bit which makes him an even more attractive option tonight.

Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen

Detroit at Tampa Bay

Detroit					Tampa Bay
Rick Porcello		Vegas Moneyline			Jake Odorizzi		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TBR (-127)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.234	0.648	0.289	13.80%	SP vs. Left	0.259	0.732	0.322	28.40%
SP vs. Right	0.253	0.689	0.300	18.10%	SP vs. Right	0.227	0.659	0.298	22.50%
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Rick Porcello – Porcello’s K-rate and ground ball rate are a bit down this season, but everything else is trending in the right direction. He has given up less walks, he’s given up less HR’s, and he has lowered his batting average against him. Porcello owns a 3.28 ERA on the season and has posted a sub 4.00 ERA in every single month of play. I’m basically filling you with stats and then I’m going to tell you to avoid him. The Rays have been the 3rd best offense in baseball over the last 30 days and have quite a few LH bats to throw at Porcello tonight. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7900 FD, $14100 DD, $7200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $14100 FTD

• Jake Odorizzi – My gut reaction is to avoid all pitchers that are facing the Tigers, but I think I may make an exception for Odorizzi tonight (for GPP’s anyway). Odorizzi has one of the best K-rates in all of baseball as he is averaging 10.1 strikeouts per 9 innings. He also has some terrific home splits with a 3.10 ERA while holding opponents to a .210 batting average. I don’t think I’ll be using him in cash games, but his high K-rate certainly puts him in play for tournaments. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8100 FD, $15600 DD, $8600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $15600 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

There really aren’t any plays that stand out here. Odorizzi has held both LH and RH hitters under a .310 wOBA this season and he has been dominant in his home starts.

Tampa Bay

Matt Joyce – Joyce has always hit RH pitching well and he gets a favorable matchup against Porcello who has historically struggled vs. lefties. Joyce has been swinging a hot bat with a .350 batting average and a .453 OBP over his last 10 games.

Additional Plays: Ben Zobrist, James Loney

LA Angels at Boston

LA Angels					Boston
Garrett Richards		Vegas Moneyline			Clay Buchholz		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAA (-133)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.189	0.516	0.236	25.00%	SP vs. Left	0.309	0.863	0.383	13.80%
SP vs. Right	0.202	0.538	0.251	24.40%	SP vs. Right	0.287	0.790	0.342	19.80%
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Garrett Richards – It seems like a say this every time Richards is on the mound, but he’s arguably the best non big-name pitcher in baseball. He has been terrific this season with a 2.53 ERA (3.14 xFIP) and a K/9 of 8.9. He’s pitched well at home (3.24 ERA) and even better on the road (1.96 ERA). While Fenway Park is regarded as a hitter-friendly ballpark, Richards’ 51% ground ball rate and 25% strikeout rate should neutralize most of the ballpark factors. I still think he’s under-priced on FD and he’s one of my favorite contrarian plays tonight if you are looking to differentiate your lineup a bit. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $8600 FD, $18550 DD, $10600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $18550 FTD

• Clay Buchholz – Buchholz’s strikeout totals are starting to go up, but that’s about all that I can say he has going for him right now. He has posted an ERA over 4.50 in every month so far this season and owns a hefty 5.79 ERA on the entire season. He’s still walking too many batters and he is giving up an 11% HR per fly ball rate. I haven’t bought in on Buchholz all season long and that’s not going to change tonight as he faces the Angels who are one of the best offenses in baseball. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6400 FD, $12750 DD, $6200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $12750 FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Mike Trout – Buchholz has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate this season so feel free to target all of the hitters in this Angels offense. Trout has been slumping a bit recently, but should bounce out of it tonight against Buchholz whom he has had great success off of in the past (6/13 with 2 HR’s).

Additional Plays: Albert Pujols, Kole Calhoun, Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick

Boston

Avoid all Red Sox tonight against Richards. He has held both LH and RH hitters under a .250 wOBA this season. And that’s wOBA that we are talking about, not batting average.

Cincinnati at St. Louis

Cincinnati					St. Louis
Johnny Cueto		Vegas Moneyline			Lance Lynn		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		STL (-110)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.189	0.531	0.244	25.10%	SP vs. Left	0.227	0.666	0.303	18.00%
SP vs. Right	0.172	0.539	0.243	26.30%	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.645	0.287	23.90%
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Johnny Cueto – Cueto is the top pitcher tonight if you don’t factor in price. He has been outstanding this season with a 2.06 ERA and a K/9 of 9.0. Cueto doesn’t walk many batters and he is producing a 48% ground ball rate. Tonight he faces a Cardinals offense that is ranked 20th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Look for Cueto to put together another strong outing tonight, the only question is whether the depleted Reds offense is going to give him any run support or not. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $10600 FD, $19700 DD, $11200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $19700 FTD

• Lance Lynn – After a fairly quiet start to the season, Lynn has really picked it up. Since the start of July, he has an ERA right around 2.00. He’s always pitched well at home and this season is no different as he has a 2.53 ERA at Busch Stadium with a 70 K’s over 89 innings of work. If Cueto wasn’t on the mound for the Reds, he’d be a terrific play tonight, but Cueto does significantly hurt his chances of picking up the win. That said, the Reds offense is ranked 29th over the last 30 days so Lynn is certainly in play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8300 FD, $17150 DD, $8800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $17150 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

I’m not a huge fan of either offense in this one. In the past Lynn had given up a high wOBA to LH hitters, but that hasn’t been the case this season as he has held them to a .303 wOBA.

St. Louis

Avoid all Cardinals bats against Cueto tonight. He has held LH and RH hitters under a .250 wOBA this season.

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3