MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 13th Page Three
NY Mets at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM EST
| NY Mets | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | Matt Harvey |  | Jason Hammel | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (-110) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.691 | 0.305 | 0.199 | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.671 | 0.297 | 0.239 | ||||
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Matt Harvey (FD: $10300, DK: $10400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.08 — K Rate: 24.2% — K/9: 8.62 — BB Rate: 3.2% — GB Rate: 42.5%
Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 25.8% (Rank: 30)
Analysis: The Dark Knight has given up at least three earned runs in three of his last five starts, but there is no reason to be alarmed. He is still one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He has opened the season with a 3.08 SIERA and a K/9 of 8.6. He has shown good command also, walking only 3.2% of the batters that he has faced. His matchup against the Cubs is interesting, as Chicago can put up runs quickly, but they also strike out at the highest rate of any team in baseball. Given the immense strikeout potential for Harvey tonight, he is a highly recommended play.
Pitcher Rating:85.9
Jason Hammel (FD: $8500, DK: $7700)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.23 — K Rate: 22.9% — K/9: 8.22 — BB Rate: 3.3% — GB Rate: 41.8%
2014: SIERA: 3.50 — K Rate: 22.1% — K/9: 8.06 — BB Rate: 6.2% — GB Rate: 39.7%
New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Much like his teammate Jake Arrieta (who pitched a gem last night), Hammel doesn’t get the credit that he deserves. He had an outstanding 2014 campaign and he is back at it again this season with a 3.23 SIERA and a K/9 of 8.2. Given his production over the last two seasons, he is not priced correctly on either FanDuel or DraftKings. He may have a tough time with run support tonight, but he makes a terrific SP2 on multi-pitcher sites. He’s also a strong play in tournaments.
Pitcher Rating:76.9
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Curtis Granderson (FD: $2900, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.163 — OBP: 0.400
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.159 — OBP: 0.324
Chicago Cubs
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4500, DK: $4900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.421 — ISO: 0.292 — OBP: 0.407
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.253 — OBP: 0.373
San Francisco at Houston – 8:10 PM EST
| San Francisco | Houston | ||||||||
 | Tim Hudson |  | Brett Oberholtzer | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| HOU (-115) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.276 | 0.755 | 0.331 | 0.123 | SP vs. Left | 0.288 | 0.726 | 0.322 | 0.194 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.256 | 0.667 | 0.292 | 0.185 | SP vs. Right | 0.287 | 0.76 | 0.332 | 0.138 |
| Batter Splits | SF BvP | SF vs L | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Tim Hudson (FD: $6500, DK: $6000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.14 — K Rate: 11.5% — K/9: 4.28 — BB Rate: 5.4% — GB Rate: 56.1%
2014: SIERA: 3.66 — K Rate: 15.2% — K/9: 5.70 — BB Rate: 4.3% — GB Rate: 53.1%
Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 24.5% (Rank: 29)
Analysis: Hudson’s stats continue to trend in the wrong direction. His SIERA and walk rate are both up, while his strikeout rate continues to dip. While he does see a strikeout boost in tonight’s matchup against the Astros, he is not a recommended fantasy option. This game features a high total of 8.5 runs and the Astros are ranked 10th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:46.1
Brett Oberholtzer (FD: $5600, DK: $5400)
Pitching Stats:
2014: SIERA: 4.27 — K Rate: 15.1% — K/9: 5.89 — BB Rate: 4.5% — GB Rate: 37.2%
San Francisco Giants vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 12)
Analysis: Oberholtzer will make his first start of the season tonight. He finished the 2014 season with a 4.27 SIERA and a low K/9 of 5.9. He pitched well at times, but he also had some very bad outings last season. He doesn’t produce many ground-ball outs, which could be a problem tonight in the home run-friendly Minute Maid Park. There is no reason to take a flier on Oberholtzer with all of the other options at the position tonight.
Pitcher Rating:44.6
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
Buster Posey (FD: $3500, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.288 — ISO: 0.200 — OBP: 0.259
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.214 — OBP: 0.357
Analysis: Posey’s numbers against left-handed pitching are down a bit this season, but the sample size is still very small. It’s only a matter of time before they reach a level close to that of last season (.382 wOBA and a .214 ISO). He draws a favorable matchup against Brett Oberholtzer, who gave up a .332 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season. Posey also sees a ballpark boost playing in the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park.
Secondary Plays:
Angel Pagan (FD: $2700, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.029 — OBP: 0.389
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.278 — ISO: 0.101 — OBP: 0.286
Houston
Jose Altuve (FD: $4600, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.149 — OBP: 0.313
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.100 — OBP: 0.356
Analysis: Tim Hudson gives up a much higher wOBA to left-handed hitters than he does to right-handed hitters, but that doesn’t mean that Altuve should be ignored tonight. Altuve has had a .337 wOBA against right-handed pitching since the start of 2014 and he’s a threat to steal a base every time he gets on first. Altuve will look to add to his total of 11 stolen bases on the season.
Secondary Plays:
Luis Valbuena (FD: $2900, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.256 — OBP: 0.308
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.208 — OBP: 0.347
Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM EST
| Chicago White Sox | Milwaukee | ||||||||
 | Jose Quintana |  | Jimmy Nelson | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIL (-110) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.685 | 0.302 | 0.219 | SP vs. Left | 0.271 | 0.805 | 0.353 | 0.17 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.25 | 0.653 | 0.29 | 0.213 | SP vs. Right | 0.307 | 0.781 | 0.349 | 0.197 |
| Batter Splits | CWS BvP | CWS vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jose Quintana (FD: $7100, DK: $7500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.85 — K Rate: 19.9% — K/9: 7.68 — BB Rate: 6.2% — GB Rate: 41.9%
2014: SIERA: 3.50 — K Rate: 21.5% — K/9: 8.00 — BB Rate: 6.3% — GB Rate: 44.7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.277 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 22.8% (Rank: 23)
Analysis: After a slow start to the season, Quintana has bounced back nicely in his last three starts. During that stretch, he has pitched 19 innings and has struck out 18 batters while only giving up five earned runs. He’s one of those pitchers that always seems to fly under the radar and you have to love his matchup tonight against the Brewers, who are ranked 27th in wOBA and 23rd in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. I love the matchup and I love the price point.
Pitcher Rating:67.9
Jimmy Nelson (FD: $6900, DK: $6100)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.51 — K Rate: 24.8% — K/9: 8.75 — BB Rate: 8.5% — GB Rate: 49.5%
2014: SIERA: 3.76 — K Rate: 18.3% — K/9: 7.40 — BB Rate: 6.1% — GB Rate: 48.4%
Chicago White Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Nelson has pitched well this season with a 3.51 SIERA and a K/9 of 8.8. He has been a boom or bust type of fantasy option though, which makes him a better tournament play than a cash game play. The White Sox are a very capable offense, ranking tenth in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The two starters in this game are very close, but I’ll give the edge to Jose Quintana, as the Brewers have been awful offensively this season.
Pitcher Rating:63.5
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu (FD: $3500, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.236 — OBP: 0.365
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.364
Analysis: FanDuel bumped up Abreu’s price, although it was only $100. He is still underpriced at $3,500. I’m not complaining at all and will continue to take advantage of the depressed price. Abreu has great power against right-handed pitching and he draws a favorable matchup against Jimmy Nelson, who gave up a .349 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season.
Secondary Plays:
Melky Cabrera (FD: $2600, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.062 — OBP: 0.385
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.151 — OBP: 0.355
Milwaukee
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Braun (FD: $4100, DK: $4900)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.300 — ISO: 0.050 — OBP: 0.348
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.236 — OBP: 0.309
Jean Segura (FD: $2600, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.503 — ISO: 0.227 — OBP: 0.478
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.234 — ISO: 0.055 — OBP: 0.274
Colorado at LA Angels – 10:05 PM EST
| Colorado | LA Angels | ||||||||
 | Jordan Lyles |  | Hector Santiago | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAA (-159) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.286 | 0.844 | 0.372 | 0.138 | SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.606 | 0.274 | 0.2 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.654 | 0.29 | 0.193 | SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.732 | 0.326 | 0.198 |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs L | Batter Splits | ANA BvP | ANA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jordan Lyles (FD: $5900, DK: $5600)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 5.01 — K Rate: 13.5% — K/9: 5.15 — BB Rate: 10.9% — GB Rate: 50.0%
2014: SIERA: 4.10 — K Rate: 16.5% — K/9: 6.39 — BB Rate: 8.4% — GB Rate: 51.7%
LA Angels of Anaheim vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.270 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Granted, half of his starts come in the hitter’s paradise that is Coors Field, but Lyles is still a below-average major league pitcher. He has struggled this season with a 5.01 SIERA and a K/9 of 5.2. The Angels have been awful against right-handed pitching this season, but unfortunately that’s not enough to make Lyles a viable target. He can safely be avoided, as he is one of the largest underdogs on the board tonight.
Pitcher Rating:38.6
Hector Santiago (FD: $7400, DK: $6200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.63 — K Rate: 20.4% — K/9: 7.97 — BB Rate: 11.8% — GB Rate: 34.0%
2014: SIERA: 4.38 — K Rate: 19.9% — K/9: 7.63 — BB Rate: 9.7% — GB Rate: 30.7%
Colorado Rockies vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 23.5% (Rank: 25)
Analysis: Santiago may give up a few runs, but he almost always gives his team a chance to win the game. He has a decent strikeout rate of 20.4% this season and he draws a favorable matchup against the Rockies, who are ranked 21st in wOBA against left-handed pitching. Santiago is also a sizable favorite tonight, which means he could be in line for the win. He’s not my favorite play on the board, but he’s worth a look as a cheap SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.
Pitcher Rating:59.1
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
Nolan Arenado (FD: $3700, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.274 — ISO: 0.105 — OBP: 0.333
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.414 — ISO: 0.286 — OBP: 0.375
Analysis: Troy Tulowitzki is the obvious play here, but he was the featured play yesterday, so we will mix it up with Arenado. He draws a favorable matchup against fly-ball pitcher Hector Santiago, who has given up a .323 wOBA to right-handed hitters since the start of last season. During that stretch, Arenado has posted a .396 wOBA and a .260 ISO against southpaws.
Secondary Plays:
Troy Tulowitzki (FD: $4400, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.571 — ISO: 0.263 — OBP: 0.526
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.556 — ISO: 0.436 — OBP: 0.515
LA Angels
Kole Calhoun (FD: $3100, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.125 — OBP: 0.310
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.190 — OBP: 0.326
Analysis: Calhoun hasn’t been the automatic start in the outfield against right-handed pitching like he was last season, but he makes a great play tonight against Jordan Lyles, who has given up a .372 wOBA to left-handed hitters since the start of last season. Calhoun has good power against right-handed pitching and his price is depressed on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Secondary Plays:
Mike Trout (FD: $5400, DK: $5100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.427 — ISO: 0.292 — OBP: 0.410
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.283 — OBP: 0.374
Erick Aybar (FD: $2200, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.233 — ISO: 0.011 — OBP: 0.273
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.103 — OBP: 0.335
San Diego at Seattle – 10:10 PM EST
| San Diego | Seattle | ||||||||
 | James Shields |  | Taijuan Walker | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SEA (-109) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.698 | 0.309 | 0.191 | SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.729 | 0.333 | 0.18 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.25 | 0.706 | 0.31 | 0.192 | SP vs. Right | 0.179 | 0.501 | 0.229 | 0.267 |
| Batter Splits | SD BvP | SD vs R | Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
James Shields (FD: $8700, DK: $9500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 2.78 — K Rate: 30.4% — K/9: 11.69 — BB Rate: 6.6% — GB Rate: 42.6%
2014: SIERA: 3.59 — K Rate: 19.2% — K/9: 7.14 — BB Rate: 4.7% — GB Rate: 45.2%
Seattle Mariners vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 20)
Analysis: Shields made a very smart career decision when he decided to sign with the Padres. Not only does he get to face National League lineups, but he gets half of his starts in the best pitcher’s park in baseball. Unfortunately, he doesn’t get either of those tonight, as he is facing an American League lineup in Safeco. Shields has great strikeout potential tonight, as he has a strikeout rate of 30.4% this season. The Mariners have also struggled against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 23rd in wOBA. The only knock on Shields tonight is that he is a very small favorite.
Pitcher Rating:72.1
Taijuan Walker (FD: $7700, DK: $7000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.36 — K Rate: 19.9% — K/9: 8.78 — BB Rate: 10.3% — GB Rate: 42.4%
2014: SIERA: 3.97 — K Rate: 21.3% — K/9: 8.05 — BB Rate: 11.3% — GB Rate: 46.6%
San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 15)
Analysis: Walker is the ultimate GPP play tonight. He has been hit or miss this season, but he’s shown a high strikeout rate with a K/9 of 8.8. We never know when he’s going to pitch a gem or when he’s going to get lit up. He draws a mediocre matchup tonight against the Padres at home. He’s a decent tournament play, but he can safely be avoided in cash games.
Pitcher Rating:55.8
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
Cory Spangenberg (FD: $2500, DK: $2900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.114 — OBP: 0.354
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.213 — OBP: 0.306
Analysis: Assuming he is in the lineup, Spangenberg is one of the top “punt” plays of the night. He has a .337 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and he has shown good speed on the bases. He also draws a favorable matchup against Taijuan Walker, who has given up a .370 wOBA to left-handed hitters since the start of 2014.
Secondary Plays:
Matt Kemp (FD: $3100, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.281 — ISO: 0.106 — OBP: 0.286
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.229 — OBP: 0.355
Seattle
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Robinson Cano (FD: $3400, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.111 — OBP: 0.370
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.166 — OBP: 0.398
Kyle Seager (FD: $3000, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.161 — OBP: 0.298
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.221 — OBP: 0.358