MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 13th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Boston at Oakland – 3:35 PM EST
| Boston | Oakland | ||||||||
 | Wade Miley |  | Sonny Gray | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| OAK (-142) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.727 | 0.326 | 19.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.219 | 0.639 | 0.289 | 20.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.751 | 0.331 | 21.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.614 | 0.277 | 20.00% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Wade Miley (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $6400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.62 — K Rate: 16.5% — K/9: 6.59 — BB Rate: 9.5% — GB Rate: 45.2%
2014: SIERA: 3.67 — K Rate: 21.1% — K/9: 8.18 — BB Rate: 8.7% — GB Rate: 51.1%
Oakland Athletics vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.241 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 18.1% (Rank: 8)
Analysis: There are two early games on the schedule today, the first of which will be played in Oakland. Miley is off to a slow start this season, posting a 4.62 SIRA with a K/9 of 6.6. He struggles with his command at times, walking nearly 9% of the batters that he has faced since the start of 2014. While the A’s have struggled against left-handed pitching this season, they are not a team that strikes out often. He’s a sizable underdog today that can be avoided in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating:52.3
Sonny Gray (FD: $9400, DK: $9200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.64 — K Rate: 22.9% — K/9: 8.08 — BB Rate: 7.8% — GB Rate: 48.8%
2014: SIERA: 3.56 — K Rate: 20.4% — K/9: 7.52 — BB Rate: 8.2% — GB Rate: 55.9%
Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 15.8% (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Gray is priced a little too high for what he brings to the table, but he is still a viable fantasy option, especially if you are playing in the “Early Only” slate. On the season, he has a 3.64 SIERA with a K/9 of 8.1. His strikeout potential is somewhat limited against the Red Sox though, as they have the second-lowest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season. Gray is a recommended play in the early slate, but he can be avoided in the all-day slate.
Pitcher Rating:76.0
Batter Grind Down
Boston
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
David Ortiz (FD: $2800, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.197 — OBP: 0.391
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.248 — OBP: 0.359
Oakland
Marcus Semien (FD: $3200, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 3B/SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.399 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.481
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.153 — OBP: 0.311
Analysis: Semien hit his sixth home run of the season last night. He is off to a great start offensively, especially against left-handed pitching. He should be batting near the top of the order today and he draws a favorable matchup against Wade Miley, who has given up a .333 wOBA to right-handed hitters since the start of last season. Semien on the other hand, has a .399 wOBA against southpaws this season.
Secondary Plays:
Billy Butler (FD: $2600, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.150 — OBP: 0.440
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.139 — OBP: 0.387
Mark Canha (FD: $2800, DK: $3100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.205 — ISO: 0.045 — OBP: 0.240
Washington at Arizona – 3:40 PM EST
| Washington | Arizona | ||||||||
 | Gio Gonzalez |  | Jeremy Hellickson | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WSN (-137) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.217 | 0.628 | 0.284 | 27.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.211 | 0.584 | 0.261 | 21.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.653 | 0.293 | 24.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.353 | 0.966 | 0.423 | 16.20% |
| Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs R | Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Gio Gonzalez (FD: $9100, DK: $8700)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.25 — K Rate: 24.4% — K/9: 9.4 — BB Rate: 8.8% — GB Rate: 56.9%
2014: SIERA: 3.43 — K Rate: 24.8% — K/9: 9.19 — BB Rate: 8.6% — GB Rate: 44.8%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 18.2% (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Gonzalez is coming off of back-to-back quality outings. Hot streaks for hitters can be tough to differentiate from luck, but it’s never a bad idea to target a pitcher that is in great form. Through his first six starts of the season, Gonzalez has posted a 3.25 SIERA with a K/9 of 9.4. He walks a lot of batters, but his high strikeout rate more than makes up for it. Much like Sonny Gray, Gonzalez is a recommended play in the “Early Only” slate, but can be avoided in the all-day leagues.
Pitcher Rating:72.2
Jeremy Hellickson (FD: $5800, DK: $5300)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.37 — K Rate: 16.6% — K/9: 6.96 — BB Rate: 7.3% — GB Rate: 42.0%
2014: SIERA: 4.04 — K Rate: 19.2% — K/9: 7.63 — BB Rate: 7.5% — GB Rate: 36.5%
Washington Nationals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 13)
Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 24)
Analysis: Hellickson has given up at least three earned runs in five of his first six starts this season. He currently owns a 4.37 SIERA and a K/9 of 7.0. He draws a tough matchup against the Washington Harpers Nationals, who have quickly climbed up the ranks in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Hellickson doesn’t have enough strikeout potential to overcome the few mistakes that he will likely make today.
Pitcher Rating:39.3
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Bryce Harper (FD: $5400, DK: $5300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.458 — ISO: 0.381 — OBP: 0.427
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.144 — OBP: 0.348
Analysis: Harper hit yet another home run last night, his 12th of the season. I mentioned above that it’s tough to separate a hot streak from luck, but it’s safe to say that Harper is officially on a hot streak. In his last six games, he has racked up 13 hits (7 home runs), 16 RBIs, and 11 runs. He is easily the top hitter in the early slate of games and he may be the top hitter in the all-day leagues as well.
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Zimmerman (FD: $3300, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.292 — ISO: 0.175 — OBP: 0.278
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.179 — OBP: 0.337
Denard Span (FD: $3400, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.466 — ISO: 0.302 — OBP: 0.424
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.125 — OBP: 0.362
Yunel Escobar (FD: $2800, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B/SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.059 — OBP: 0.394
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: 0.085 — OBP: 0.317
Arizona
Paul Goldschmidt (FD: $5100, DK: $5100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.485 — ISO: 0.385 — OBP: 0.414
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.470 — ISO: 0.205 — OBP: 0.526
Analysis: At his price point, Goldschmidt would typically be more of a GPP play against a very good pitcher in Gio Gonzalez. However, if you are playing in the early slate, there are only two teams to take hitters from, which puts him in play in all league formats. He has a terrific track record against southpaws, posting a .473 wOBA and a .253 ISO since the start of 2014.
Secondary Plays:
A.J. Pollock (FD: $3700, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.107 — OBP: 0.455
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.340 — OBP: 0.333
St. Louis at Cleveland – 6:10 PM EST
| St. Louis | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | John Lackey |  | Corey Kluber | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-121) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.720 | 0.316 | 18.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.242 | 0.688 | 0.304 | 28.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.744 | 0.327 | 20.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.220 | 0.553 | 0.246 | 28.30% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
John Lackey (FD: $8300, DK: $8200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.00 — K Rate: 17.0% — K/9: 6.41 — BB Rate: 5.5% — GB Rate: 46.3%
2014: SIERA: 3.64 — K Rate: 19.7% — K/9: 7.45 — BB Rate: 5.6% — GB Rate: 44.4%
Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 16.4% (Rank: 4)
Analysis: Lackey has allowed a single earned run in each of his last two starts, but his pitching indicators are mediocre at best this season. He currently owns a 4.00 SIERA with a K/9 of 6.4. Those are very average numbers for a pitcher and it’s tough to justify paying his expensive price tag in a difficult matchup tonight against the Indians. Cleveland is currently ranked 15th in wOBA (.314) and fourth in strikeout rate (16.4%) against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:58.1
Corey Kluber (FD: $9300, DK: $9000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.20 — K Rate: 23.8% — K/9: 9.27 — BB Rate: 5.7% — GB Rate: 48.4%
2014: SIERA: 2.61 — K Rate: 28.3% — K/9: 10.27 — BB Rate: 5.4% — GB Rate: 48.0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.337 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 3)
Analysis: This is a classic case of an elite pitcher facing an elite offense. Kluber is having another terrific season with a 3.20 SIERA and a K/9 of 9.3. He always has great command and he’s capable of striking out 10+ batters every time he takes the mound. The question here is whether or not he can pay off his expensive salary in a difficult matchup against the Cardinals, who are ranked third in wOBA and third in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Kluber makes a great play on multi-pitcher sites, but I have a hard time using him on a single pitcher site like FanDuel.
Pitcher Rating:81.2
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Matt Carpenter (FD: $4200, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.467 — ISO: 0.351 — OBP: 0.425
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.104 — OBP: 0.381
Cleveland
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Michael Brantley (FD: $4300, DK: $5200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.385
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.197 — OBP: 0.388
Carlos Santana (FD: $3500, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.226 — OBP: 0.388
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.195 — OBP: 0.351
Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST
| Toronto | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Aaron Sanchez |  | Miguel Gonzalez | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BAL (-114) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.146 | 0.469 | 0.223 | 21.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.772 | 0.340 | 15.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.114 | 0.306 | 0.149 | 22.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.724 | 0.321 | 18.50% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Aaron Sanchez (FD: $6400, DK: $5900)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 5.43 — K Rate: 16.9% — K/9: 6.68 — BB Rate: 17.6% — GB Rate: 59.8%
2014: SIERA: 2.53 — K Rate: 22.3% — K/9: 7.36 — BB Rate: 7.4% — GB Rate: 65.9%
Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.339 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 24.3% (Rank: 28)
Analysis: Sanchez would barely be on my radar if he was facing the worst offense in baseball. With a matchup against the Orioles in Camden Yards, he’s an easy pitcher to avoid tonight. He has a 5.43 SIERA this season and the Orioles are currently ranked second in wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Pitcher Rating:45.9
Miguel Gonzalez (FD: $7600, DK: $5700)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.25 — K Rate: 19.9% — K/9: 7.39 — BB Rate: 9.6% — GB Rate: 42.6%
2014: SIERA: 4.40 — K Rate: 16.5% — K/9: 6.28 — BB Rate: 7.6% — GB Rate: 37.3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 21)
Analysis: Gonzalez has pitched a little better than most people realize, but he’s still a very risky fantasy option in daily leagues. On the season, he has a 4.25 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.4. He should get plenty of run support tonight, but he draws a tough matchup against the Blue Jays. Toronto is currently ranked ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitching. This is a game where both offenses are in play.
Pitcher Rating:46.6
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Edwin Encarnacion (FD: $4000, DK: $5400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 — ISO: 0.158 — OBP: 0.296
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.291 — OBP: 0.349
Analysis: Encarnacion hit two home runs last night against the Orioles and he draws an equally favorable matchup tonight against Miguel Gonzalez. Encarnacion is one of those players that hits home runs in bunches and this could be a great time to hop on the bandwagon before his price inflates.
Secondary Plays:
Devon Travis (FD: $3400, DK: $3300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.198 — OBP: 0.363
Baltimore
Adam Jones (FD: $3800, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.190 — OBP: 0.376
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.165 — OBP: 0.282
Analysis: The Orioles’ offense was a huge disappointment last night against Mark Buehrle, but that’s just how the cookie crumbles sometimes in baseball. Don’t let that cloud your judgment tonight, as they draw an equally favorable matchup against Aaron Sanchez. Jones has been terrific against right-handed pitching this season, posting a .386 wOBA and a .190 ISO.
Secondary Plays:
Chris Davis (FD: $3700, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.274 — OBP: 0.302
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.199 — OBP: 0.318
Manny Machado (FD: $3600, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.399 — ISO: 0.258 — OBP: 0.373
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.165 — OBP: 0.343
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM EST
| Pittsburgh | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | Francisco Liriano |  | Cole Hamels | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (-124) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.740 | 0.331 | 31.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.211 | 0.636 | 0.291 | 19.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.202 | 0.623 | 0.284 | 24.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.641 | 0.285 | 25.00% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs L | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Francisco Liriano (FD: $9500, DK: $8900)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.31 — K Rate: 29.1% — K/9: 10.24 — BB Rate: 10.6% — GB Rate: 46.1%
2014: SIERA: 3.61 — K Rate: 25.3% — K/9: 9.70 — BB Rate: 11.7% — GB Rate: 54.4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13)
Strikeout Rate: 16.4% (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Liriano is very hit or miss. Looking strictly at his numbers, you wouldn’t see any red flags outside of his walk rate of 10.6%. The problem is that once he gets hit around, he has a tough time recovering, which leads to that boom or bust type of fantasy production. He obviously has great strikeout potential with a K/9 of 10.2 this season, but he’s a better tournament play than he is a cash game play. The Phillies have actually been decent against left-handed pitching this season, as they are ranked 13th in wOBA and second in strikeout rate.
Pitcher Rating:77.9
Cole Hamels (FD: $9400, DK: $10100)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.93 — K Rate: 24.7% — K/9: 9.41 — BB Rate: 11.3% — GB Rate: 45.3%
2014: SIERA: 3.29 — K Rate: 23.9% — K/9: 8.71 — BB Rate: 7.1% — GB Rate: 46.4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.274 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 29.1% (Rank: 30)
Analysis: Hamels has been a boom or bust fantasy option this season as well. In his six starts, he has given up at least four earned runs in three of them and he’s held his opponents to one earned run or less in the other three. Despite appearances, he actually has the better pitching matchup of the two, as the Pirates are ranked 28th in wOBA and 30th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Run support could be limited for Hamels though, which is why he is also a better tournament play than a cash game option.
Pitcher Rating:75.5
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Andrew McCutchen (FD: $3800, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.249 — ISO: 0.071 — OBP: 0.267
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.240 — OBP: 0.392
Analysis: McCutchen is heating up. He hit his third home run of the season last night and he now has nine hits in his last six games. He has a great track record against left-handed pitching, posting a .380 wOBA and a .219 ISO since the start of last season. The matchup isn’t ideal, but he’s still underpriced on FanDuel ($3,800).
Secondary Plays:
Starling Marte (FD: $4100, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.781 — ISO: 0.857 — OBP: 0.533
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.124 — OBP: 0.354
Philadelphia
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
NONE