MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 17th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
The two day games are not included in today’s Grind Down as most sites do not have early leagues posted.
Toronto at Baltimore
| Toronto | Baltimore | ||||||||
| J.A. Happ | Vegas Moneyline | Bud Norris | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | BAL (-126) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.846 | 0.368 | 22.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.734 | 0.325 | 18.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.746 | 0.328 | 19.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.234 | 0.685 | 0.306 | 21.00% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP  | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- J.A. Happ – Happ’s numbers on the season aren’t atrocious, but they aren’t anything to write home about either. He is sporting a 4.28 ERA (4.03 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.7. Happ is a fly-ball pitcher (42%) that is giving up 1.17 HR’s per 9 innings. That does not bode well for his matchup tonight against the Orioles who lead the majors in HR’s this season. The Orioles are also ranked 9th in wOBA vs. RH pitching and 8th in wOBA at home. Can you tell which side of this matchup I like? Rating = 4
Salaries: $ FD, $13000 DD, $7200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Bud Norris – We’ve seen an improved Norris this season as far as his ERA is concerned, but his peripheral stats look nearly identical to his 2013 numbers. His 4.02 xFIP, 7.4 K/9, and 42% ground ball rate mirror his numbers from last season. That said, Norris has pitched very well at Camden Yards this season. He owns a 2.62 ERA at home while holding opponents to a .234 batting average. It’s not an ideal matchup against the Blue Jays, but I expect Norris to see run support with Happ on the mound. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $13200 DD, $6900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Jose Reyes – Norris has been very efficient against RH hitters this season (.306 wOBA), so I will be avoiding the big bats of both Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. The LH hitters are in play though. Reyes has 6 hits over his last 3 games and sees a boost in stolen base potential with a righty on the mound.
Additional Plays: Dioner Navarro, Adam Lind
Baltimore
Nelson Cruz – This is close to a perfect matchup for Cruz. He has mashed LH pitching to the tune of a .302 batting average and a .406 wOBA. Tonight he is facing J.A. Happ who is a fly-ball pitcher that has already given up 13 HR’s to batters from the right side of the plate. In addition to the shiny matchup, Cruz has also been swinging a hot bat with 15 hits and 10 RBI’s over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Adam Jones, J.J. Hardy, Steve Pearce
Boston at Pittsburgh
| Boston | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Clay Buchholz | Vegas Moneyline | Francisco Liriano | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PIT (-165) | LEFT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.278 | 0.778 | 0.346 | 17.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.268 | 0.737 | 0.328 | 31.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.258 | 0.706 | 0.311 | 19.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.204 | 0.630 | 0.285 | 24.70% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Clay Buchholz – Buchholz has been better in his recent starts. He hasn’t given up more than 2 earned runs in any of his last 3 outings. That’s basically the argument for Buchholz tonight. The argument against him is his below average ERA (5.19) and his awful matchup against a Pirates offense that is ranked 2nd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. This game features a low run total, but Buchholz is a large underdog and is a very risky fantasy option at this point in the season. Rating = 4
Salaries: $7200 FD, $14000 DD, $8100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Francisco Liriano – Liriano has been extremely sharp in his last 4 starts. During that stretch, he has given up a combined 2 earned runs while striking out 34 batters. On the season he owns a 3.53 ERA (3.23 xFIP) with a K/9 of 10.0. The only red flag with Liriano is the fact that he walks a ton of batters. He is averaging 4.2 walks per 9 innings this season. That said, his current form more than outweighs his command issues. He draws a very nice matchup against the Red Sox who strike out at a 22% clip against LH pitching this season. Rating = 8
Salaries: $8700 FD, $15750 DD, $9600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Boston
There aren’t any hitters that stand out tonight against Francisco Liriano. He has been very good against RH hitters this season holding them to a .285 wOBA.
Pittsburgh
Russell Martin – I’m not a huge proponent of BvP, but I don’t think it hurts to look at the stats each day. One matchup that caught my eye was Martin against Buchholz. Martin has 4 hits off of Buchholz in 12 career at-bats and all 4 hits were HR’s. Martin is a RH hitter, but he hits for a much higher average against RH pitching.
Additional Plays: Neil Walker
Washington at Atlanta
| Washington | Atlanta | ||||||||
| Blake Treinen | Vegas Moneyline | Alex Wood | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | ATL (-157) | LEFT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | – | – | – | – | SP vs. Left | 0.242 | 0.649 | 0.292 | 25.70% |
| SP vs. Right | – | – | – | – | SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.638 | 0.285 | 23.70% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs L | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Blake Treinen – Treinen will be making his 6th start of the season tonight. He’s been a serviceable starter, but has a low strikeout rate (5.6 per 9 innings) and he’s a sizable underdog tonight against the Braves. Treinen is a bit too risky to use in cash games. Rating = 4
- Alex Wood – Since the start of August, Wood has an ERA under 2.00 while holding opponents under a .200 batting average. He has also struck out 54 batters over 55 innings of work during that stretch. Those numbers rival just about any pitcher in the National League. While his current form is terrific, the Nationals have one of the better lineups in the National League. As a team the Nationals are ranked 8th in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. UPDATE: The Nats are sitting all of their star players tonight. Wood should be targeted in ALL leagues. Rating = 9
Salaries: $8500 FD, $17150 DD, $9100 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Anthony Rendon and Jayson Werth both hit LH pitching well, but you can safely avoid all Nationals hitters tonight. The total for this game is set at 6.5 runs and Alex Wood has held both LH and RH hitters under a .300 wOBA this season.
Atlanta
Justin Upton – Anytime Upton is facing an average pitcher at Turner Field, you have to at least consider taking him. Upton has a .432 wOBA at home this season. He makes a great tournament play tonight against Blake Treinen.
Additional Plays: Freddie Freeman
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
| NY Yankees | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Brandon McCarthy | Vegas Moneyline | Alex Cobb | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-145) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.292 | 0.751 | 0.331 | 20.60% | SP vs. Left | 0.192 | 0.545 | 0.247 | 21.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.260 | 0.723 | 0.313 | 21.00% | SP vs. Right | 0.250 | 0.643 | 0.292 | 23.80% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Brandon McCarthy – McCarthy has been a new man during his time with the Yankees this season. Since the All-Star Break, he has posted a 2.65 ERA while averaging nearly a strikeout per inning. He is producing a career high 52% ground ball rate and he has shown great command by only walking an average of 1.5 batters per 9 innings. Tonight he faces a Rays offense that has the 2nd lowest wOBA of any team in baseball over the last 30 days. McCarthy is a solid contrarian play tonight. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7400 FD, $14800 DD, $8300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Alex Cobb – In his last start (which was against the Yankees), Cobb took a no-hitter into the 8th inning. He ended up giving up a double to Chris Young and then the bullpen ended up costing him a win. Cobb has had outstanding success against the Yankees over the past two seasons and I expect that to continue tonight. Cobb has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All-Star Break as he has posted a 1.26 ERA with 70 K’s over 71 innings of work. Rating = 8
Salaries: $8500 FD, $17900 DD, $10700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees / Tampa Bay
This game features one of the lowest run totals of the night. Both pitchers are in great spots and this one will likely turn into a pitcher’s duel. You can safely avoid both offenses in this game.
Miami at NY Mets
| Miami | NY Mets | ||||||||
| Henderson Alvarez | Vegas Moneyline | Dillon Gee | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYM (-118) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.262 | 0.668 | 0.293 | 15.80% | SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.702 | 0.313 | 13.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.275 | 0.737 | 0.327 | 13.60% | SP vs. Right | 0.234 | 0.721 | 0.319 | 21.10% |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Henderson Alvarez – Alvarez gets a lot of outs, but the problem is that he doesn’t strike out many batters in the process. He owns a impressive 2.82 ERA this season, but is only averaging 5.5 strikeouts per 9 innings. While a matchup against the Mets does boost his strikeout potential a little bit, he’s still a little overpriced for his limited upside. Run support is also an issue as the Marlins offense has sputtered ever since the injury to Giancarlo Stanton. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7300 FD, $12550 DD, $7100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Dillon Gee – Gee has given up at least 2 earned runs in each of his last 6 starts. He will look to end that streak tonight against a Marlins offense that has really struggled to score runs without Giancarlo Stanton. On the season, Gee owns a 3.80 ERA with a fairly low K/9 of 6.3. While he’s not in the best form, he draws a terrific matchup against the Marlins who have struck out at a 25% clip on the road this season. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7000 FD, $11850 DD, $7200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Miami
Christian Yelich – Yelich is the only Marlins hitter that stands out tonight. He has been terrific against RH pitching all season long and is one of the more consistent players in daily fantasy baseball. He has good speed (19 SB’s) and decent pop in his bat (9 HR’s).
Additional Plays: None
NY Mets
Wilmer Flores – Flores has had himself a career 3-game stretch. In his last 3 games, Flores has 7 hits (2 HR’s) and 8 RBI’s. He is still close to minimum salary on most fantasy sites and he gets to face a reverse splits pitcher in Henderson Alvarez tonight.
Additional Plays: None
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