MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 24th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Baltimore at NY Yankees
| Baltimore | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Bud Norris | Vegas Moneyline | Shane Greene | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYY (-110) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.733 | 0.325 | 18.30% | SP vs. Left | 0.268 | 0.723 | 0.328 | 16.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.675 | 0.302 | 21.10% | SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.665 | 0.299 | 31.20% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP  | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Bud Norris – There are four early games on the slate today so we will cover those real quick before hopping into the action for tonight. Norris takes the mound for the Orioles with a 4.83 ERA on the road while giving up a .341 wOBA to his opponents. The Yankees haven’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut this season, but they only strike out at an 18% clip against RH pitching this season. Norris is an easy pitcher to avoid with the other options in the early slate. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7500 FD, $NA DD, $7400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Shane Greene – Greene has had an impressive rookie season, but has stumbled a bit down the stretch. In the second half of the season, Greene has a 3.67 ERA while giving up a .330 wOBA to his opponents. He does have an elite K/9 of 9.1 though which can often times hide bad fantasy outings. As for his matchup, it’s not a great one. The Orioles are ranked 6th in wOBA against RH pitching and 4th in wOBA on the road this season. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7200 FD, $ DD, $7900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Nelson Cruz – Cruz continues to mash left-hand and right-hand pitching this season. He homered in last night’s win over the Yankees and now has 15 hits over his last 10 games. Continue to target Cruz in all leagues.
Additional Plays: David Lough, Nick Markakis
NY Yankees
Chase Headley – Headley has been heating up a bit. Over his last 10 games, he has reached base safely 13 times and has scored 6 runs. He is batting 3rd today against Bud Norris who has given up a .325 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate.
Additional Plays: Brett Gardner, Stephen Drew
Chicago White Sox at Detroit
| Chicago White Sox | Detroit | ||||||||
| Chris Sale | Vegas Moneyline | Justin Verlander | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | CWS (-195) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.165 | 0.393 | 0.183 | 36.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.690 | 0.307 | 19.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.213 | 0.609 | 0.273 | 28.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.325 | 0.870 | 0.381 | 15.60% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Chris Sale – Sale has the most upside of any starting pitcher in the early slate of games. He has an elite K/9 of 10.6 with one of the highest swinging strikes rates in the majors at 12.6%. Sale walks very few batters and doesn’t give up many HR’s. The issue here is his matchup. The Tigers are ranked 1st in wOBA vs. left-hand pitching and 3rd in wOBA at home. The upside is there, but Jon Lester looks like the safer play of the two. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $10500 FD, $NA DD, $12500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Justin Verlander – It’s a bit surprising, but Verlander is actually the favorite in this game. He is coming off of a strong performance against the Royals, but has had a subpar season by his standards. He owns a 4.68 ERA (4.23 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.9 which is his lowest strikeout rate since 2006. While I’d love to see a resurgence from the former MVP, he’s a risky fantasy option and should be avoided in lieu of some of the safer options on the board. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7600 FD, $ DD, $7700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu – Abreu has the splits as well as BvP at his back today. Verlander has given up a .381 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate this season and Abreu has knocked him around in their previous meetings by going 7/12 with 2 HR’s off of him.
Additional Plays: Adam Eaton, Alexei Ramirez
Detroit
Victor Martinez – Taking hitters against Chris Sale isn’t something that you should regularly practice in daily fantasy baseball, but we can make an exception today as Martinez had has his number throughout his career. Martinez is an impressive 15/28 with 3 HR’s and 3 doubles off of Sale.
Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera
Arizona at Minnesota
| Arizona | Minnesota | ||||||||
| Vidal Nuno | Vegas Moneyline | Phil Hughes | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | MIN (-150) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.190 | 0.590 | 0.267 | 22.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.628 | 0.276 | 22.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.271 | 0.794 | 0.346 | 17.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.292 | 0.748 | 0.327 | 21.40% |
| Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Vidal Nuno – Nuno has pitched better than most people give him credit for, but he’s still not a great fantasy option. On the season he is sporting a 4.60 ERA (4.09 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.1. His biggest issue this season has been his inability to keep the ball in the park. He has a HR per fly-ball rate of 12.1% and is giving up an average of 1.44 HR’s per 9 innings. He can be avoided today against the Twins who have the 11th highest team wOBA over the last 30 days. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6200 FD, $NA DD, $6200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Phil Hughes – Hughes has given up 10 earned runs over his last 3 starts, but was really pitching well before that as he gave up one earned run or less in 5 of his previous 6 starts. Hughes owns a 3.15 ERA during the second half of the season with 73 K’s over 80 innings of work. Today he squares off against a Diamondbacks offense that is ranked 27th in team wOBA over the last 30 days. Hughes should be able to get back on track in this one. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8400 FD, $ DD, $8900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
This matchup actually favors Phil Hughes as he has held left-hand hitters in check this season (.276 wOBA). Mark Trumbo is an interesting GPP play, but the rest of the Diamondbacks can be avoided.
Minnesota
Trevor Plouffe – Plouffe’s numbers against left-hand pitching are down this season, but he has historically had great power numbers against lefties. He draws a solid matchup against Vidal Nuno who has given up a .346 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate this season.
Additional Plays: Brian Dozier, Kennys Vargas, Kurt Suzuki
LA Angels at Oakland
| LA Angels | Oakland | ||||||||
| Hector Santiago | Vegas Moneyline | Jon Lester | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | OAK (-190) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.596 | 0.269 | 20.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.700 | 0.311 | 25.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.752 | 0.333 | 19.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.612 | 0.274 | 24.80% |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs L | Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Hector Santiago – Santiago is the biggest underdog in the early game slate. Vegas currently has the A’s as a -200 favorite which doesn’t bode well for Santiago’s chances to pick up a win. On the season he owns a 3.98 ERA (4.57 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.7 His biggest issues are that he walks too many batters (3.8 per 9 innings) and gives up too many HR’s (1.13 per 9 innings). He should be avoided today against the A’s who need a win more than the Angels do. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5600 FD, $NA DD, $6300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jon Lester – Lester may be the safest play in the early slate. The A’s are slumping, but it’s not because of Lester. In the second half of the season, Lester has posted a 2.04 ERA with 79 K’s over 83 innings of work. He has also held hitters to a .279 wOBA during that stretch. While the Angels are a very potent offense, the O.Co Coliseum is one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. Expect Lester to pitch deep into this game and hopefully see enough run support to pick up the win. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $10400 FD, $ DD, $12400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
Avoid all Angels today against Jon Lester. He has held right-hand hitters to an impressive .274 wOBA this season.
Oakland
Josh Donaldson – Much like the rest of the A’s, Donaldson’s numbers have come down over the last 2 months. He still has terrific power against left-hand pitching though. He’s sporting a .433 wOBA with 25 of his 41 hits off of left-hand pitching going for extra bases.
Additional Plays: Coco Crisp, Derek Norris
Kansas City at Cleveland
| Kansas City | Cleveland | ||||||||
| Jason Vargas | Vegas Moneyline | Trevor Bauer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | CLE (-110) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.668 | 0.298 | 16.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.729 | 0.324 | 24.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.721 | 0.316 | 16.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.729 | 0.322 | 20.00% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jason Vargas – Vargas has given up 14 earned runs over his last 3 starts, but has drawn some very tough opponents over that stretch. He draws a much better matchup tonight against the Indians who are ranked 26th in wOBA vs. left-hand pitching this season. Vargas doesn’t walk many batters (1.8 per 9 innings) and has a respectable K/9 of 6.3. He’s an interesting play at his price point tonight. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6500 FD, $13350 DD, $7200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Trevor Bauer – Bauer is one of my favorite value pitchers because he has an elite K/9 of 8.6 and he’s priced near the bottom of the starting pitchers. Bauer has pitched well at home this season with a 3.43 ERA. Tonight he faces a Royals offense that still has the fewest number of strikeouts in the majors, but they have struck out quite a bit so far in this series. Treat Bauer as a nice upside play for tournaments. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6900 FD, $13350 DD, $6900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Alex Gordon – Trevor Bauer has given up a .324 wOBA to hitters from the left side of the plate this season. Gordon has hit right-hand pitching well the entire season and should fly under the radar tonight.
Additional Plays: Eric Hosmer
Cleveland
The Indians have not fared well against Jason Vargas in the past. Yan Gomes and Carlos Santana are both solid upside plays for tournaments, but the rest of the Indians can be avoided in cash games.
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2