MLB Heat Check: July 6th, 2013

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-07-07 08:41:19

Some would argue that the best strategy in daily fantasy baseball is through finding the players heating up and exploiting them. Others would say that guys performing below their typical averages are due to return to the norm and can be terrific sources of value. Well this article will have a little bit for both parties as a couple of times each week I’ll break down the hottest and coldest hitters in baseball.

For the purpose of this article, we’ll define hot and cold streaks by players recent averages (last fourteen days) vs. their season averages. We’re far enough into the season that, for the most part, we have a decent feel for where players lie. The four key stats looked at in terms of differentials will be:

1) Batting Average
2) Slugging Percentage
3) OPS (On Base + Slugging)
4) Fantasy Points Per Game (based on FD scoring)

Also, to qualify, hitters must have at least 50 plate appearances on the season and 10 plate appearances over the past 2 weeks.

Shown below are the hitters with the largest fantasy point per game differentials between their last 14 days performance and their season averages, along with the percentage increase or decrease for each stat.

HOTTEST HITTERS

Jason Kipnis

Jason Kipnis	HOTTEST HITTER #1
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.300	AVG	0.468	AVG	0.168	AVG	56.0%
	SLG	0.531	SLG	0.915	SLG	0.384	SLG	72.3%
	OPS	0.909	OPS	1.472	OPS	0.563	OPS	61.9%
	FPPG	3.74	FPPG	6.52	FPPG	2.78	FPPG	74.3%

• Kipnis remains the hottest hitter in baseball, as his numbers just continue climbing. His inside the park job on Wednesday made it 4 HRs in the last 10 games.
• This might be the time to start fading him more and more. Sitting at just under $6000 on FanDuel, he appears to be due for a return to the mean. He struck out 3 times in 4 AB’s on Friday.

Raul Ibanez

Raul Ibanez	HOTTEST HITTER #2
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.257	AVG	0.370	AVG	0.113	AVG	44.0%
	SLG	0.559	SLG	0.891	SLG	0.332	SLG	59.4%
	OPS	0.865	OPS	1.323	OPS	0.458	OPS	52.9%
	FPPG	2.95	FPPG	5.70	FPPG	2.76	FPPG	93.6%

• All Raul does is crush balls over the fence. The Mariners offense is white hot and since June 22nd, Ibanez has donged 7 times.
• He has started out the month of July hitting .474 and while he’ll likely cool off, I think he still has a few more days of being worthwhile at a high price before that happens.
• He seems to go with the Mariners offense, so if they’re ice cold, avoid Ibanez. If they are hitting the ball well, trust him.

PS – At least he can still hit, because his fielding is really not quite up to par:

Juan Francisco

Juan Francisco	HOTTEST HITTER #3
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.247	AVG	0.368	AVG	0.121	AVG	49.0%
	SLG	0.457	SLG	0.816	SLG	0.359	SLG	78.5%
	OPS	0.758	OPS	1.244	OPS	0.486	OPS	64.1%
	FPPG	1.98	FPPG	4.45	FPPG	2.47	FPPG	124.6%

• 5 multi-hit efforts for the former Brave have helped Milwaukee’s offense to find a bit of a groove again.
• Along with the 5 multi-hit games, his streak has included 5 HRs in his past 10 contests.
• Francisco is still a decent value on most sites and much like Flaherty in the last update, he could be a great platoon player to find some value with. He hits right handers well and should continue with at least modest success in the middle of that Brewers lineups.

Jeff Mathis

Jeff Mathis	HOTTEST HITTER #4
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.164	AVG	0.280	AVG	0.116	AVG	70.7%
	SLG	0.342	SLG	0.600	SLG	0.258	SLG	75.2%
	OPS	0.581	OPS	1.019	OPS	0.438	OPS	75.4%
	FPPG	1.61	FPPG	4.06	FPPG	2.45	FPPG	151.6%

• It wasn’t hard for Mathis to earn his way onto this list. When your season batting average is .164, a short hot streak is all you need to create some big stat differentials.
• He’s not very good and his price has risen to the level of the mid-range catchers, this is a fade from here on out.

Brian McCann

Brian McCann	HOTTEST HITTER #5
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.276	AVG	0.405	AVG	0.129	AVG	46.7%
	SLG	0.520	SLG	0.784	SLG	0.264	SLG	50.8%
	OPS	0.874	OPS	1.223	OPS	0.349	OPS	39.9%
	FPPG	2.53	FPPG	4.45	FPPG	1.92	FPPG	75.7%

• McCann, and the entire Braves offense, continues to be incredibly streaky. They also continue to be much better at Turner field than away from it. McCann posted 10 hits in 24 at bats in a recent 6-game home stand.
• Continuing on that theme, McCann has a .930 OPS at home compared to .841 on the road this season. It looks to me like his big differentials are more a factor of home cooking than a true hot streak.

COLDEST HITTERS

Adam Jones

Adam Jones	COLDEST HITTER #1
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.287	AVG	0.196	AVG	-0.091	AVG	-31.7%
	SLG	0.472	SLG	0.196	SLG	-0.276	SLG	-58.5%
	OPS	0.773	OPS	0.404	OPS	-0.369	OPS	-47.7%
	FPPG	2.87	FPPG	0.67	FPPG	-2.19	FPPG	-76.5%

• Just one multi-hit effort in his last 10 games shows just how cold Jones is.
• His average has been dropping each month since April where he hit .327. He dropped to .311 for May, then all the way to .237 in June. His OPS also dropped over .200 points from May to June.
• Jones has always shown signs of brilliance along with some stretches of disappointment. Avoid him until the brilliance signs start flashing again consistently.

Pablo Sandoval

Pablo Sandoval	COLDEST HITTER #2
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.263	AVG	0.108	AVG	-0.155	AVG	-58.9%
	SLG	0.385	SLG	0.135	SLG	-0.250	SLG	-64.9%
	OPS	0.681	OPS	0.289	OPS	-0.392	OPS	-57.6%
	FPPG	1.94	FPPG	-0.13	FPPG	-2.06	FPPG	-106.5%

• Kung Fu Panda just keeps getting worse. I said it last time and I’ll say it again, avoid the chubby Panda Bear until things start improving. Just because he’s cheap doesn’t mean he won’t put up another negative score.
• As long as he’s in the ice cold section, he deserves this gif:

Eric Chavez

Eric Chavez	COLDEST HITTER #3
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.299	AVG	0.174	AVG	-0.125	AVG	-41.8%
	SLG	0.526	SLG	0.217	SLG	-0.308	SLG	-58.6%
	OPS	0.859	OPS	0.426	OPS	-0.433	OPS	-50.4%
	FPPG	2.40	FPPG	0.45	FPPG	-1.95	FPPG	-81.2%

• Since returning from the DL, Chavez is just 4-23 with 1 extra base hit.
• It’s a good example of an older player being hampered by a nagging injury. He doesn’t look right at the plate and while I’m no doctor, Chavez doesn’t seem to have the same pop he displayed in May where he hit .400 in 60 at bats.
• Avoid for now. He might hit the DL again soon if he continues to struggle this heavily.

J.J. Hardy

J.J. Hardy	COLDEST HITTER #4
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.254	AVG	0.130	AVG	-0.124	AVG	-48.8%
	SLG	0.435	SLG	0.152	SLG	-0.283	SLG	-65.0%
	OPS	0.724	OPS	0.298	OPS	-0.426	OPS	-58.8%
	FPPG	2.07	FPPG	0.15	FPPG	-1.92	FPPG	-92.6%

• After hitting .324 in the month of June, Hardy has yet to record a hit through 5 games in July.
• Another Orioles bat that is extremely hit or miss, Hardy is no stranger to cold streak. He didn’t record his first multi-hit game until 25 days into this season.
• Just wait it out with Hardy, he’ll hit his groove again at some point and will have some terrific value when he does.
• Interestingly enough, he has hit right handed pitchers .070 points better than left handers on the season.

Albert Pujols

Albert Pujols	COLDEST HITTER #5
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.244	AVG	0.122	AVG	-0.122	AVG	-50.0%
	SLG	0.416	SLG	0.163	SLG	-0.252	SLG	-60.7%
	OPS	0.723	OPS	0.363	OPS	-0.360	OPS	-49.8%
	FPPG	2.40	FPPG	0.52	FPPG	-1.88	FPPG	-78.3%

• The Angels closed out June on a 6-game win streak where they were crushing top-tier opposing starters. Their offense was clicking on all cylinders, except for Pujols. Albert recorded just 2 hits during the last 5 games of that 6 game streak.
• Since then, he has added on only 2 hits in the month of July. He’s as cold as can be over the past 9 games, recording just 4 hits in 35 at bats with only one going for an extra base.
• We’ve grown accustomed to a less consistent, more streaky Pujols since joining the Angels. Usually, his cold streaks have come at the beginning of seasons but he’s now gone over 15 days since putting a ball in the bleachers. His price will continue dropping and he’s a good buy-low candidate in the coming week where the Angels have 2 off days for him to rest up and rejuvenate his swing.