MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Predictions for Friday (8/16)
What kind of performances can we expect on Friday from Andrew Heaney, Ryan Pepiot, and Spencer Schwellenbach? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets today – Friday, August 16, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Friday! Major League Baseball started their weekend slate with some afternoon action at Wrigley Field earlier today, but there are still 13 games left on tap for this evening – all with a 6:40 p.m. ET scheduled first pitch or later. And of course, plenty of games means plenty of betting opportunities for the community!
Since the beginning of last year, we are 145-76 (65.6%) and +32.85u on pitcher prop recommendations in this article during the regular season. A bettor who has tailed every player prop, including batter props, in this article during that time period is +47.99u overall.
Below, we have 3 plays worth considering for Friday’s action!
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MLB Player Props Today
Andrew Heaney Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Ryan Pepiot Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Spencer Schwellenbach Over/Under 18.5 Outs Recorded
Andrew Heaney UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-130), DraftKings
Heaney is nobody’s favorite pitcher to trust, but he gets a really good matchup on Friday against the Twins. During the last 30 days, Minnesota’s offense ranks 24th in OPS and 24th in wRC+ against LHP.
Heaney also has the added benefit of having the extremely pitcher-friendly Doug Eddings behind the plate calling balls and strikes. Since the beginning of 2021, Eddings has called strikes 7% or above the MLB average to all right-handed hitter zones. Minnesota had 8 righties in the lineup last night against Cody Bradford, and we should see a similar lineup construction this evening. Heaney should have every opportunity to limit the damage done against him.
Ryan Pepiot UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-150), DraftKings
Kevin Cash has a history of coddling his starting pitchers, which makes this a very appealing look on Friday night. Ryan Pepiot hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since July 14 and made only 1 rehab outing, during which he faced only 13 batters. It’s incredibly difficult to imagine him facing more than 20 batters tonight, which would necessitate a 30%+ strikeout rate to get to 6 strikeouts this evening.
Tony Randazzo has a tendency to be a pitcher-friendly umpire at times, but his presence is unlikely to be enough to help Pepiot get to such a high number on a short leash. The Diamondbacks do take a lot of called strikes, but they also rank top 5 in contact% on swings at pitches in the zone and out of the zone the last two weeks. The under is likely to be a worthwhile risk here.
Spencer Schwellenbach UNDER 18.5 Outs Recorded (-180), Bally
Spencer Schwellenbach has been dealing in recent weeks, with a 3.12 ERA, 3.14 FIP, and 0.88 WHIP during the last month of action. That being said, he owns an 87.5% strand rate in that time period, which is likely to regress closer to the 72.2% league average strand rate sooner than later.
Schwellenbach has the added difficulty of facing a very patient Los Angeles lineup on Friday. The Angels’ 46.5% swing rate ranks as the 23rd most aggressive during the last two weeks, which means they have been running up opposing pitch counts even though they haven’t done much damage with their bats.
Atlanta has all of their high-leverage arms rested and available tonight as well, so Schwellenbach is unlikely to be pushed into the 7th inning unnecessarily. The under has value, even at the juiced price.
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MLB 2024 Results – Wager Type
Strikeouts: 10-6
Outs Recorded: 4-3
Earned Runs Allowed: 4-0
Hits Allowed: 2-0
Walks Allowed: 1-2
Hitter Strikeouts: 4-0
Total Bases: 9-8
Hits + Runs + RBIs: 2-0
Stolen Bases: 0-2
Dinger Tuesday: 6-13-2
Combined Record: 42-34-2 (52.9%)
Image Credit: Getty Images