MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Predictions for Friday (7/26)
What kind of performances can we expect on Friday from Shane Baz, Drew Thorpe, and Kyle Harrison? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and today – Friday, July 26, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Friday! There are 15 MLB games on tap for this evening, giving baseball fans plenty of entertainment options to begin their weekend. The action will begin in Philadelphia at 6:40 p.m. ET, with the last game of the night scheduled for a 10:15 p.m. ET first pitch in San Francisco.
Since the beginning of last year, we are 130-67 (66.0%) +29.78u on pitcher prop recommendations in this article during the regular season. A bettor who has tailed every player prop, including batter props, in this article during that time period is +45.67u overall.
Below, we have 3 plays worth considering for Friday’s action!
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MLB Player Props Today
Shane Baz Over/Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
Drew Thorpe Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Kyle Harrison Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Shane Baz UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-134), Bally Sports
Shane Baz has a respectable 3.95 ERA through his first three turns in the Tampa Bay rotation this year, but a 6.76 xERA, 27.3% ground ball rate, and a double-digit walk percentage are all red flags. Following a strong first outing against Texas, Baz has failed to pitch into the 6th inning in either of his last two outings. He has been particularly poor against left-handed batters, and he will see 5 tonight against the Reds. Cincinnati has been relatively patient at the plate in recent weeks, ranking 23rd in swing%. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them continue to have quality at-bats in this spot and force the Rays into their arm barn early in this contest.
Drew Thorpe OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+130), DraftKings
Drew Thorpe owns a 3.03 ERA through 38.2 innings of work this season, but his 15.4% strikeout rate and 10.9% walk percentage scream regression. Factor in an abnormally low .123 BABIP and 94.2% strand rate during the last 30 days, and it becomes very obvious that Thorpe has been more lucky than good of late.
The Seattle Mariners are hardly a formidable matchup for any starting pitcher, but this is still great value for Thorpe, who has been given a consistently long leash this season, completing at least 6 innings in each of his last five turns through the rotation. Thorpe could still have a quality start and allow 3 earned runs here. This has the potential to be a worthwhile risk.
Kyle Harrison UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-160), DraftKings
Kyle Harrison draws a somewhat challenging matchup on Friday against a Colorado offense that he just saw one week ago at Coors Field. Typically, these hyper-proximity matchups are good for the offense. However, it’s only forecast to be in the mid-50s at first pitch in San Francisco today, and the Rockies’ offense ranks 29th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching across the last 30 days. Harrison has allowed 1 earned run or fewer in 3 of his last 4 starts. He should be able to use the cold weather to his benefit tonight.
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MLB 2024 Results – Wager Type
Strikeouts: 7-0
Outs Recorded: 2-2
Hitter Strikeouts: 4-0
Total Bases: 9-8
Hits + Runs + RBIs: 2-0
Stolen Bases: 0-2
Dinger Tuesday: 6-10-2
Combined Record: 30-22-2 (57.7%)
Image Credit: Getty Images