MLB Player Props for Monday, 8/18: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday from Paul Skenes, Matthew Liberatore, and Dustin May? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Monday, August 18th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Happy Monday! The new week of MLB action began earlier this afternoon at Wrigley Field, but there are still 12 games left to get underway as of this writing, giving bettors plenty of options to consider for their evening entertainment.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Monday, August 18th!
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Best MLB Player Props for Monday, August 18
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 PM ET on Monday, August 18th:
- Paul Skenes Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Matthew Liberatore Over/Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
- Dustin May Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Paul Skenes OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-150, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSSkenes has struggled with his efficiency of late, averaging 4.19 pitches per batter faced during the last month, but an aggressive Toronto lineup might help him out in that regard. Ahead of first pitch , the Pirates’ arm barn is also in poor shape after having used Chase Shugart for 36 pitches and Carmen Mlodzinski for 44 pitches on Sunday. Isaac Mattson has thrown 54 pitches in the last 3 days as well.
The Blue Jays rank 2nd in swing% during the last 14 days and are in a tough travel spot, going from Toronto to Pittsburgh without the benefit of an off-day. Skenes should have every opportunity to get through 6 innings.
Matthew Liberatore UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-165, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSIn his first start following the All-Star Break, Liberatore was able to hold his velocity for about 40 pitches. In his subsequent outing, he was able to hold it for close to 70 pitches but then lost some steam before another early exit.
Following that start, he admitted to the media that he’s “never really dealt with this much physical stuff before” – alluding to the recovery challenges of throwing a career-high number of innings this season. Prior to this summer, Liberatore had never thrown more than 86 innings in an MLB season or 126.1 innings at any level of professional baseball, but he’s already at 117 innings ahead of first pitch tonight. There have been open discussions about piggybacking relievers in tandem with Liberatore as well as they prioritize Liberatore’s long-term health and well-being.
Liberatore hasn’t completed more than 5 innings of work since June 29th. Considering his velocity issues, a potential piggyback situation with Matt Svanson (or someone else in this bullpen), and a matchup against a relatively patient Miami lineup, 5 innings appears to be a maximum workload this evening unless he is hyper-efficient getting outs.
Dustin May OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-165, BetMGM)
BETMGMIt’s always a little bit risky betting a strikeout prop before seeing who the home plate umpire is for a particular game, but it’s difficult to overlook how good of a matchup this is for May. During the last 30 days, May has had one of the highest called-strike rates of any starting pitcher in baseball. His opponent this evening, the Orioles, have taken the 4th-highest rate of called strikes during the last 14 days and are in a tough travel spot, going from Houston to Boston without the benefit of an off-day. In 2 starts since joining the Red Sox, May has a 12% SwStr% and has been stretched out to over 90 pitches. He should have every opportunity to rack up some punchouts against an Orioles lineup that should have plenty of lefties, as May has a 25.8% K% against lefties this season.
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