MLB Player Props Today: Boyd, Stroman, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (June 15)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Matthew Boyd, Marcus Stroman, and Bryson Stott? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Thursday, June 15, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Thursday! Today’s 10-game MLB slate begins early this afternoon with a matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles at 1:05 p.m. EST. Seven of today’s contests have a scheduled first pitch of 7:10 p.m. EST or later – allowing bettors plenty of time to research plays and get their wagers locked in.
Yesterday, we went 2-1 to improve to 56-38-4 across our last 32 posts. Since May 1, we are 77-54-5 on non-Home Run props and 2-2 on Home Run recommendations. We are now 70-33-1 on pitcher prop recommendations for the season. There is plenty of opportunity once again on the player prop market today – below are three prop leans for June 15!
MLB Props Results – Wager Type
HITTER PROPS
Dinger Tuesday: 4-7-1
Hitter: 48-50-4
Stolen Base: 0-2
PITCHER PROPS
Hits Allowed: 2-1
Outs Recorded: 26-9
Strikeout: 43-22-1
MISCELLANEOUS PROPS
1st Inning: 0-4
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MLB Player Props Today
- Matthew Boyd u5.5 Strikeouts
- Marcus Stroman u18.5 Outs Recorded
- Bryson Stott less than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts
Matthew Boyd u5.5 Strikeouts (-125), DraftKings
The Minnesota Twins have struck out more than any team in baseball across the last 30 days of action. However, a more shrewd cut of the data reveals that Minnesota has struck out less often against southpaws than against right-handed pitching. This split has become even more clear in recent weeks, with the Twins ranking 17th in strikeout percentage against lefties during the month of June, compared to 30th against right-handed pitching during that time period. Matthew Boyd has only eclipsed this market number four times in 12 starts this season, meaning that the market number is likely inflated due to the ostensibly favorable matchup in this spot. However, four of the last five southpaws to face Minnesota have gone under their market number, according to props.cash. This might not feel like a smart wager, but the data certainly favors five strikeouts or less from Boyd tonight.
Marcus Stroman u18.5 Outs Recorded (-135), DraftKings
Marcus Stroman has been excellent this season, posting a 2.42 ERA, 3.73 xERA, 3.49 FIP, and a 1.04 WHIP through his first 14 turns in the rotation. Still, he has only pitched into the 7th inning four times this year. On Thursday, Stroman will have to contend with a much-improved Pittsburgh Pirates lineup, which ranks 11th in OPS, 7th in walk rate, and 6th in strikeout percentage since the beginning of June. Stroman is one of the most efficient hurlers in Major League Baseball, but he has thrown more than 92 pitches only once since the end of April. If Pittsburgh is able to work the count effectively today, it is likely that Stroman is done after six frames today.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Bryson Stott less than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts, PrizePicks
Entering play on Thursday, Ryne Nelson has an incredibly low 9.0% strikeout rate against left-handed batters this season. His poor strikeout rate is part of a larger issue of effectiveness across the platoon, with a 6.62 FIP, 1.91 WHIP, and .330 opponent batting average all indicating that he is not fooling many batters in these situations. Bryson Stott has struck out in only 18.7% of his plate appearances against right-handed pitching this year, making him a good bet to put the ball in play during the early portion of this contest. We will take our chances with Stott against the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen in the latter frames here.
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