MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Predictions for Sunday (8/18)
What kind of performances can we expect on Sunday from Andrew Abbott and Blake Snell? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets today, Sunday, August 18, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Sunday! We only have 7 more regular season Sundays in Major League Baseball this season, so we might as well make them count. There are 15 games on tap to conclude this weekend, including the Little League Classic from Williamsport this evening on Sunday Night Baseball featuring the Yankees and Tigers.
Since the beginning of last year, we are 147-77 (65.6%) +33.07u on pitcher prop recommendations in this article during the regular season. A bettor who has tailed every player prop including batter props in this article during that time period is +48.21u overall.
Below, we have 3 plays worth considering for Sunday’s action!
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MLB Player Props Today
Andrew Abbott Over/Under 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Blake Snell Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts
Blake Snell Over/Under 18.5 Outs Recorded
Andrew Abbott UNDER 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-165), DraftKings
Earned run lines at 3.5 are almost always worth a quick look to see if the under is feasible. It’s difficult for even the worst pitchers in baseball to give up 4+ earned runs consistently. Andrew Abbott certainly doesn’t qualify as one of the worst pitchers in baseball even if he’s struggled mightily in recent weeks.
Based on the matchup alone, this is a play that carries value. The Royals tagged Nick Lodolo for 8 runs yesterday, but their bats have been very inconsistent and mostly bad against southpaws. During the last 30 days, Kansas City’s offense ranks only 19th in OPS and 20th in wRC+ against LHP. The under should have a good chance to cash here, especially with the pitcher-friendly Will Little calling balls and strikes.
Blake Snell UNDER 8.5 Strikeouts (-120), DraftKings
It never feels good to fade Blake Snell in the strikeout market, but we have reached a point of over-inflation here. Snell has 8+ strikeouts in each of his last 4 starts, including 3 games with 11+ strikeouts during that stretch. However, it’s worth noting that his 3 games with double-digit punchies all came against teams with ghastly strikeout numbers against southpaws. His lone game with 8 strikeouts came against a Washington lineup that is more contact oriented.
As shocking as it may seem, Oakland more closely resembles Washington than the other teams on that list. The Athletics have the 6th lowest strikeout rate in baseball against southpaws across the last 14 days, and the 10th lowest strikeout rate against southpaws during the last month. The under has some value here, especially if Oakland is able to run up the pitch count for Snell. No team in baseball has been more patient than the Athletics in August. If Snell can’t find the strike zone for whatever reason, this could be a worthwhile risk.
Blake Snell UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-110), Bally
During the last two weeks, Oakland’s offense has been less aggressive than any other team in baseball, swinging at only 44.1% of pitches. That means that they have a greater likelihood of running up an opposing pitcher’s pitch count than a team that aggressively offers at a lot of pitches early in at-bats.
Blake Snell has been phenomenal of late, but he’s also been walking a tightrope, with a .172 BABIP and 89.1% strand rate during the last month. Oakland has a top 5 offense against southpaws since the All-Star Break. The math makes the under appealing.
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MLB 2024 Results – Wager Type
Strikeouts: 11-6
Outs Recorded: 5-3
Earned Runs Allowed: 4-1
Hits Allowed: 2-0
Walks Allowed: 1-2
Hitter Strikeouts: 4-0
Total Bases: 9-8
Hits + Runs + RBIs: 2-0
Stolen Bases: 0-2
Dinger Tuesday: 6-13-2
Combined Record: 44-35-2 (52.9%)
Image Credit: Getty Images